Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.3 #80
Expected Predictive Rating +11.4 #50
Pace 66.8 #244
Improvement -2.8 #314

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #28 B+ A A- B+ B-
Defense #203 D+ C D+ C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #29 1.12 #228 +3.2 #84
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #177 0.87 #43 +1.2 #111
Three Pointers 34% #314 1.27 #3 +1.0 #144
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #51 +5.4 #50
Freethrows 19.2 #87 79% #24 15.1 #42
Second Chance 33.4% #104 1.30 #4 0.43 #28
Turnovers 13.8% #33
Total Offense +8.1 #28

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #267 1.18 #212 +1.3 #131
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #200 0.80 #250 -0.3 #208
Three Pointers 45% #79 1.07 #263 -3.2 #307
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #249 -2.2 #250
Freethrows 16.6 #152 70% #75 11.6 #246
Second Chance 30.7% #178 1.08 #233 0.33 #208
Turnovers 15.2% #268
Total Defense -0.8 #203

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #115 -0.3% #146
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.4% #49 4.6% #262
Possession Length 17.6 #201 17.8 #277
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #340 0.15 #110
Improvement -3.5 #351 +0.7 #136

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.9% 60.4% 53.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 97.9%
Conference Champion 80.4% 84.2% 65.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round58.9% 60.4% 53.1%
Second Round11.6% 12.4% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.5% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Away) - 79.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 02 - 1
Quad 39 - 210 - 4
Quad 412 - 123 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 193 @Navy W 97 - 68 73%  +14  1 - 0 +30 +19 A+ A+ A +9 C- B- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 158 @Quinnipiac W 97 - 60 67%  +18  2 - 0 +40 +25 A+ A+ C +14 A- B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 276 Stony Brook W 86 - 79 93%  +7  3 - 0 -3 +18 A+ B+ C -20 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 141 Rhode Island L 77 - 86 81%  -0  3 - 1 -11 +9 D+ A+ B -20 F D+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 249 Green Bay W 73 - 67 87%  +6  4 - 1 +1 +6 B B- D+ -4 A+ F F
 Sun, Nov 23 149 College of Charleston W 74 - 63 74%  +9  5 - 1 +11 +7 A C- C+ +5 B+ A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 64 Akron W 97 - 94 44%  +6  6 - 1 +12 +31 A+ B+ A+ -19 F F B-
 Sun, Nov 30 198 @Vermont W 77 - 74 74%  +3  7 - 1 +4 +13 C- B- A+ -8 F C+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 184 Illinois-Chicago W 80 - 66 87%  +4  8 - 1 +9 +11 F A+ A+ -1 A B+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 322 Albany W 93 - 82 94%  +6  9 - 1 +1 +10 B- F B- -9 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 13 @Alabama L 78 - 102 10%  -19  9 - 2 -3 +13 C A+ A+ -16 B- F F
 Mon, Jan 5 247 @Brown W 70 - 53 81%  +3  10 - 2 1 - 0 +15 +1 C+ B+ F +14 A+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 10 242 @Princeton W 78 - 69 80% 
 Sat, Jan 17 168 Cornell W 95 - 84 85% 
 Mon, Jan 19 139 Columbia W 83 - 74 80% 
 Sat, Jan 24 216 @Penn W 84 - 77 75% 
 Fri, Jan 30 230 Dartmouth W 87 - 73 91% 
 Sat, Jan 31 196 Harvard W 80 - 67 87% 
 Fri, Feb 6 247 Brown W 78 - 63 91% 
 Mon, Feb 9 271 @Howard W 80 - 69 84% 
 Fri, Feb 13 230 @Dartmouth W 84 - 76 77% 
 Sat, Feb 14 196 @Harvard W 77 - 70 72% 
 Sat, Feb 21 216 Penn W 87 - 74 88% 
 Fri, Feb 27 168 @Cornell W 92 - 87 68% 
 Sat, Feb 28 139 @Columbia W 80 - 77 61% 
 Sat, Mar 7 242 Princeton W 81 - 66 91% 
Totals 21 - 5 11 - 3 +7 +8 B+ A A- -1 D+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 7.9 17.5 23.7 20.2 9.3 80.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.8 5.5 3.0 0.6 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.3 6.9 13.7 20.5 24.3 20.2 9.3 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 9.3    9.3
13-1 100.0% 20.2    20.0 0.2
12-2 97.7% 23.7    21.7 2.0
11-3 85.3% 17.5    13.3 4.1 0.1
10-4 58.1% 7.9    3.9 3.3 0.7 0.0
9-5 24.4% 1.7    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
8-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 80.4% 80.4 68.5 10.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 9.3% 75.1% 74.4% 0.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 4.2 0.9 0.0 2.3 2.7%
13-1 20.2% 67.9% 67.8% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 5.7 7.5 0.5 0.0 6.5 0.5%
12-2 24.3% 63.1% 63.1% 12.0 0.0 2.3 10.9 2.1 0.0 9.0
11-3 20.5% 56.0% 56.0% 12.2 0.5 7.9 3.0 0.1 9.0
10-4 13.7% 51.1% 51.1% 12.5 0.1 3.9 2.8 0.3 6.7
9-5 6.9% 46.1% 46.1% 12.7 0.0 1.3 1.7 0.2 3.7
8-6 3.3% 33.0% 33.0% 12.9 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.2
7-7 1.3% 13.2% 13.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
6-8 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 14.0 0.0 0.5
5-9 0.1% 0.1
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 58.9% 58.8% 0.1% 11.9 41.1 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.2% 100.0% 10.5 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.1 8.7 13.6 61.4 9.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2% 1.7% 10.8 0.4 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 5.0% 11.0 0.6 3.9 0.6