Yale
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#69
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#115
Pace69.3#152
Improvement+4.0#38

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#59
First Shot+2.5#103
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#38
Layup/Dunks+0.5#161
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#75
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#181
Freethrows+0.3#159
Improvement-0.1#192

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#97
First Shot+3.7#71
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#263
Layups/Dunks+5.4#31
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#222
Freethrows-1.7#297
Improvement+4.1#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.1% 62.4% 54.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 91.4% 98.0% 81.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round59.1% 62.4% 54.2%
Second Round12.5% 13.7% 10.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.5% 2.6%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cornell (Away) - 59.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 36 - 7
Quad 414 - 120 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 187   Quinnipiac W 88-62 86%     1 - 0 +22.2 +13.0 +8.4
  Nov 08, 2024 123   @ Illinois-Chicago L 79-91 62%     1 - 1 -7.4 -0.3 -6.0
  Nov 11, 2024 9   @ Purdue L 84-92 12%     1 - 2 +12.4 +16.6 -3.9
  Nov 16, 2024 92   @ Minnesota L 56-59 47%     1 - 3 +5.5 +4.3 +0.4
  Nov 20, 2024 318   @ Stony Brook W 86-64 91%     2 - 3 +15.3 +7.6 +7.5
  Nov 23, 2024 326   Fairfield W 91-66 94%     3 - 3 +14.8 +25.2 -6.5
  Nov 24, 2024 232   Delaware L 94-100 87%     3 - 4 -10.1 +9.2 -18.9
  Dec 02, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 78-84 62%     3 - 5 -1.2 +2.8 -3.6
  Dec 07, 2024 240   Vermont W 65-50 91%     4 - 5 +7.9 +0.0 +9.6
  Dec 20, 2024 100   Akron W 74-58 62%     5 - 5 +20.7 +1.7 +18.7
  Dec 21, 2024 143   @ UTEP L 74-75 66%     5 - 6 +2.7 +4.1 -1.5
  Jan 01, 2025 310   Howard W 93-65 95%     6 - 6 +16.9 +17.2 +1.8
  Jan 11, 2025 214   Brown W 79-58 89%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +15.6 +8.7 +8.5
  Jan 18, 2025 237   @ Columbia W 92-88 82%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +2.0 +5.8 -4.1
  Jan 20, 2025 257   Dartmouth W 83-67 92%     9 - 6 3 - 0 +8.0 +1.2 +5.6
  Jan 25, 2025 241   Harvard W 84-55 91%     10 - 6 4 - 0 +21.9 +12.6 +10.5
  Jan 31, 2025 129   @ Princeton W 77-70 63%     11 - 6 5 - 0 +11.4 +11.7 +0.2
  Feb 01, 2025 273   @ Penn W 90-61 86%     12 - 6 6 - 0 +25.2 +12.2 +12.6
  Feb 08, 2025 122   @ Cornell W 83-80 60%    
  Feb 14, 2025 273   Penn W 83-66 94%    
  Feb 15, 2025 129   Princeton W 78-70 80%    
  Feb 21, 2025 122   Cornell W 85-77 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 237   Columbia W 88-73 92%    
  Feb 28, 2025 257   @ Dartmouth W 82-71 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 241   @ Harvard W 77-67 81%    
  Mar 08, 2025 214   @ Brown W 77-69 76%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 12 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 10.1 26.5 33.9 19.3 91.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.6 3.6 0.7 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.5 13.7 27.2 33.9 19.3 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 19.3    19.3
13-1 100.0% 33.9    33.9
12-2 97.6% 26.5    22.7 3.8
11-3 73.4% 10.1    5.5 4.2 0.4
10-4 34.2% 1.5    0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0
9-5 5.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 91.4% 91.4 81.8 8.9 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 19.3% 67.4% 67.4% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.2 6.3 0.2 6.3
13-1 33.9% 63.6% 63.6% 12.1 0.0 2.7 14.7 4.1 0.1 12.3
12-2 27.2% 56.5% 56.5% 12.4 0.6 8.5 5.9 0.4 11.8
11-3 13.7% 49.8% 49.8% 12.7 0.1 2.4 3.7 0.7 6.9
10-4 4.5% 42.2% 42.2% 13.1 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.6
9-5 1.2% 37.2% 37.2% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8
8-6 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-7 0.0% 0.0
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 59.1% 59.1% 0.0% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.5 32.2 15.1 1.9 0.1 40.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.0% 100.0% 11.5 0.2 0.4 1.8 47.8 48.4 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%