Yale
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#78
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#102
Pace68.9#147
Improvement+1.5#134

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#58
First Shot+2.9#95
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#37
Layup/Dunks+0.6#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#181
Freethrows+0.3#151
Improvement-0.7#219

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#116
First Shot+2.9#83
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#276
Layups/Dunks+5.3#33
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#236
Freethrows-2.0#311
Improvement+2.2#78
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.1% 74.7% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round61.1% 74.7% 0.0%
Second Round11.3% 13.9% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 3.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 37 - 38 - 5
Quad 413 - 220 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 199   Quinnipiac W 88-62 87%     1 - 0 +21.1 +12.5 +7.8
  Nov 08, 2024 172   @ Illinois-Chicago L 79-91 70%     1 - 1 -9.9 +0.0 -8.9
  Nov 11, 2024 16   @ Purdue L 84-92 12%     1 - 2 +12.0 +14.5 -2.3
  Nov 16, 2024 84   @ Minnesota L 56-59 43%     1 - 3 +6.2 +5.1 +0.2
  Nov 20, 2024 324   @ Stony Brook W 86-64 90%     2 - 3 +15.0 +6.9 +7.9
  Nov 23, 2024 327   Fairfield W 91-66 94%     3 - 3 +14.9 +27.8 -9.1
  Nov 24, 2024 228   Delaware L 94-100 85%     3 - 4 -9.6 +9.2 -18.3
  Dec 02, 2024 151   @ Rhode Island L 78-84 66%     3 - 5 -2.7 +0.5 -2.8
  Dec 07, 2024 229   Vermont W 65-50 90%     4 - 5 +8.6 -0.5 +10.8
  Dec 20, 2024 111   Akron W 74-58 64%     5 - 5 +19.6 -0.1 +19.4
  Dec 21, 2024 159   @ UTEP L 74-75 67%     5 - 6 +1.9 +3.6 -1.7
  Jan 01, 2025 316   Howard W 93-65 95%     6 - 6 +16.0 +19.0 -0.9
  Jan 11, 2025 205   Brown W 79-58 88%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +15.7 +10.8 +6.5
  Jan 18, 2025 290   @ Columbia W 92-88 87%     8 - 6 2 - 0 -0.8 +5.2 -6.4
  Jan 20, 2025 179   Dartmouth W 83-67 85%     9 - 6 3 - 0 +12.1 +5.5 +5.4
  Jan 25, 2025 243   Harvard W 84-55 91%     10 - 6 4 - 0 +21.8 +12.6 +10.4
  Jan 31, 2025 187   @ Princeton W 77-70 72%     11 - 6 5 - 0 +8.3 +11.2 -2.4
  Feb 01, 2025 281   @ Penn W 90-61 86%     12 - 6 6 - 0 +25.0 +11.8 +12.8
  Feb 08, 2025 130   @ Cornell W 103-88 61%     13 - 6 7 - 0 +19.6 +21.2 -2.7
  Feb 14, 2025 281   Penn W 72-71 93%     14 - 6 8 - 0 -8.5 +0.1 -8.6
  Feb 15, 2025 187   Princeton W 84-57 86%     15 - 6 9 - 0 +22.8 +15.0 +9.5
  Feb 21, 2025 130   Cornell W 92-88 78%     16 - 6 10 - 0 +3.1 +10.9 -8.0
  Feb 22, 2025 290   Columbia W 90-64 94%     17 - 6 11 - 0 +15.7 +5.6 +9.0
  Feb 28, 2025 179   @ Dartmouth W 72-67 71%     18 - 6 12 - 0 +6.6 +3.6 +3.0
  Mar 01, 2025 243   @ Harvard L 69-74 81%     18 - 7 12 - 1 -6.7 +1.2 -8.2
  Mar 08, 2025 205   @ Brown W 70-61 75%     19 - 7 13 - 1 +9.2 +4.6 +5.4
  Mar 15, 2025 187   Princeton W 78-69 80%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 13 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 100.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 100.0    100.0
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 100.0% 61.1% 61.1% 12.5 0.3 31.6 27.5 1.8 38.9
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 61.1% 61.1% 0.0% 12.5 0.3 31.6 27.5 1.8 38.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 61.1% 100.0% 12.5 0.5 51.7 44.9 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 20.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 18.2%