Yale
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#98
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#181
Pace68.4#198
Improvement+1.3#103

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#74
First Shot+1.2#140
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#38
Layup/Dunks-0.6#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#217
Freethrows+0.7#129
Improvement-2.2#322

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#133
First Shot+2.5#105
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#291
Layups/Dunks+6.1#25
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#257
Freethrows-2.4#330
Improvement+3.5#8
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.3% 37.2% 29.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 92.8% 94.5% 78.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 95.7% 92.2%
Conference Champion 49.6% 50.7% 40.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round36.3% 37.2% 29.6%
Second Round5.8% 6.1% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.4% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 88.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 46 - 9
Quad 411 - 217 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 249   Quinnipiac W 88-62 88%     1 - 0 +18.2 +9.4 +7.9
  Nov 08, 2024 192   @ Illinois-Chicago L 79-91 64%     1 - 1 -10.6 -0.1 -9.4
  Nov 11, 2024 27   @ Purdue L 84-92 13%     1 - 2 +8.9 +13.9 -4.7
  Nov 16, 2024 111   @ Minnesota L 56-59 45%     1 - 3 +3.3 +4.6 -2.2
  Nov 20, 2024 306   @ Stony Brook W 86-64 83%     2 - 3 +17.0 +9.0 +7.8
  Nov 23, 2024 297   Fairfield W 91-66 87%     3 - 3 +17.6 +26.3 -4.8
  Nov 24, 2024 215   Delaware L 94-100 77%     3 - 4 -8.7 +11.4 -19.7
  Dec 02, 2024 93   @ Rhode Island L 78-84 37%     3 - 5 +2.5 +3.7 -0.8
  Dec 07, 2024 220   Vermont W 65-50 85%     4 - 5 +8.7 -0.2 +10.7
  Dec 20, 2024 148   Akron W 74-58 68%     5 - 5 +16.3 -0.1 +16.0
  Dec 21, 2024 139   @ UTEP L 74-75 53%     5 - 6 +3.3 +5.2 -1.9
  Jan 01, 2025 255   Howard W 82-69 89%    
  Jan 11, 2025 174   Brown W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 179   @ Columbia W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 20, 2025 280   Dartmouth W 81-67 91%    
  Jan 25, 2025 243   Harvard W 78-65 88%    
  Jan 31, 2025 110   @ Princeton L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 292   @ Penn W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 131   @ Cornell W 81-80 51%    
  Feb 14, 2025 292   Penn W 80-65 92%    
  Feb 15, 2025 110   Princeton W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 21, 2025 131   Cornell W 84-78 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 179   Columbia W 81-72 79%    
  Feb 28, 2025 280   @ Dartmouth W 78-70 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 243   @ Harvard W 75-68 72%    
  Mar 08, 2025 174   @ Brown W 73-70 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 7.8 14.9 14.3 8.4 2.5 49.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 7.5 9.8 4.5 0.6 24.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.2 5.3 1.5 0.1 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.0 0.6 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.3 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.8 10.1 15.0 19.1 19.4 14.9 8.4 2.5 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
13-1 100.0% 8.4    8.3 0.1
12-2 95.9% 14.3    12.5 1.9 0.0
11-3 76.6% 14.9    9.2 5.2 0.4
10-4 40.9% 7.8    2.6 3.7 1.4 0.1
9-5 10.4% 1.6    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 49.6% 49.6 35.3 11.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 2.5% 62.7% 62.6% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.2%
13-1 8.4% 55.7% 55.7% 12.1 0.6 3.1 1.0 0.0 3.7
12-2 14.9% 49.4% 49.4% 12.5 0.1 3.5 3.4 0.4 7.6
11-3 19.4% 42.0% 42.0% 12.9 0.0 2.0 4.6 1.4 0.1 11.3
10-4 19.1% 37.4% 37.4% 13.3 0.0 0.8 3.7 2.4 0.2 0.0 12.0
9-5 15.0% 31.1% 31.1% 13.8 0.2 1.5 2.3 0.7 0.0 10.4
8-6 10.1% 22.8% 22.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.0 7.8
7-7 5.8% 6.8% 6.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 5.4
6-8 2.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-9 1.2% 1.2
4-10 0.4% 0.4
3-11 0.1% 0.1
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 36.3% 36.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.6 10.0 14.4 7.7 2.4 0.1 63.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 11.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 3.6 9.6 54.6 29.8 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 0.4% 11.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%