Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.1 #80
Expected Predictive Rating +6.9 #79
Pace 65.1 #280
Improvement -2.2 #281

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #43 B+ B+ B- B- C+
Defense #173 C C+ D+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #53 1.14 #200 +2.4 #102
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #186 0.90 #33 +1.3 #106
Three Pointers 36% #274 1.25 #4 +1.9 #115
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #44 +5.6 #44
Freethrows 0.31 #169 79% #8 0.24 #96
Second Chance 33.5% #98 1.23 #15 0.41 #30
Turnovers 14.8% #70
Total Offense +7.4 #43

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #294 1.20 #243 +1.4 #128
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #175 0.80 #259 -0.5 #223
Three Pointers 45% #75 1.00 #151 -1.5 #255
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #196 -0.5 #197
Freethrows 0.28 #130 71% #105 0.20 #112
Second Chance 30.7% #179 0.96 #89 0.29 #127
Turnovers 15.0% #276
Total Defense -0.3 #173

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #129 -0.5% #121
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.1% #39 1.6% #214
Possession Length 17.8 #231 17.9 #288
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #335 0.15 #115
Improvement -4.5 #351 +2.3 #58

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.1% 62.5% 55.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 98.7%
Conference Champion 85.9% 86.8% 69.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round62.1% 62.5% 55.0%
Second Round10.3% 10.5% 8.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 1.7% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Brown (Home) - 94.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 310 - 411 - 5
Quad 410 - 122 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 179 @Navy W 97 - 68 70% +14  1 - 0 +31 +20 A A+ A- +8 C A- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 186 @Quinnipiac W 97 - 60 72% +18  2 - 0 +38 +24 A+ A+ D+ +13 B+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 217 Stony Brook W 86 - 79 89% +7  3 - 0 +1 +18 A+ B C -17 F F+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 119 Rhode Island L 77 - 86 75% -0  3 - 1 -9 +10 C- A+ B -19 F D D-
 Fri, Nov 21 258 Green Bay W 73 - 67 88% +6  4 - 1 +1 +3 C B- D+ -2 A+ F D
 Sun, Nov 23 152 College of Charleston W 74 - 63 74% +9  5 - 1 +11 +7 A- D+ C+ +5 B A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 61 Akron W 97 - 94 42% +6  6 - 1 +12 +32 A+ A- A+ -19 F F C+
 Sun, Nov 30 211 @Vermont W 77 - 74 75% +3  7 - 1 +3 +13 C C A+ -10 F C B
 Sun, Dec 7 135 Illinois-Chicago W 80 - 66 79% +4  8 - 1 +13 +13 D- A+ A+ +0 A A F
 Wed, Dec 10 316 Albany W 93 - 82 93% +6  9 - 1 +1 +12 B- D+ C+ -11 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 20 @Alabama L 78 - 102 11% -19  9 - 2 -4 +13 C+ A+ B+ -17 C F+ F
 Mon, Jan 5 280 @Brown W 70 - 53 85% +3  10 - 2 1 - 0 +13 +0 B- C+ F +13 A+ B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 213 @Princeton L 60 - 76 75% -2  10 - 3 1 - 1 -16 -8 F B B- -10 F D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 176 Cornell W 102 - 68 85% +21  11 - 3 2 - 1 +30 +19 A A- A+ +10 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 183 Columbia W 91 - 74 86% +9  12 - 3 3 - 1 +12 +23 A+ A+ C+ -9 B- F D
 Sat, Jan 24 180 @Penn W 77 - 60 70% +5  13 - 3 4 - 1 +19 +9 C B F+ +11 B A- C
 Fri, Jan 30 229 Dartmouth W 83 - 68 90% +3  14 - 3 5 - 1 +8 +14 A+ C D+ -5 C A- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 165 Harvard L 65 - 67 84% -3  14 - 4 5 - 2 -5 +4 C D A+ -10 D A- F
 Fri, Feb 6 280 Brown W 78 - 61 94%
 Mon, Feb 9 253 @Howard W 79 - 70 81%
 Fri, Feb 13 229 @Dartmouth W 82 - 74 77%
 Sat, Feb 14 165 @Harvard W 74 - 69 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 180 Penn W 83 - 71 86%
 Fri, Feb 27 176 @Cornell W 90 - 85 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 183 @Columbia W 80 - 74 70%
 Sat, Mar 7 213 Princeton W 79 - 66 90%
Totals 20 - 6 11 - 3 +7 +7 B+ B+ B- +0 C C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 7.0 24.1 34.2 20.5 85.9 1st
2nd 1.5 5.9 3.0 0.3 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.3 0.3 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.8 13.3 27.1 34.5 20.5 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 20.5    20.5
11-3 99.1% 34.2    31.8 2.4
10-4 88.9% 24.1    16.1 7.5 0.4
9-5 52.6% 7.0    1.3 3.3 2.1 0.3 0.0
8-6 3.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 85.9% 85.9 69.6 13.2 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 20.5% 71.0% 71.0% 11.6 0.0 0.1 6.0 8.2 0.3 5.9
11-3 34.5% 65.2% 65.2% 12.0 0.0 2.3 17.3 2.9 0.0 12.0
10-4 27.1% 59.5% 59.5% 12.2 0.5 11.6 3.9 0.2 11.0
9-5 13.3% 54.8% 54.8% 12.4 0.1 4.6 2.5 0.1 6.0
8-6 3.8% 39.8% 39.8% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 2.3
7-7 0.7% 14.8% 14.8% 12.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
6-8 0.1% 0.1
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 62.1% 62.1% 0.0% 12.0 37.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.3% 100.0% 11.5 0.1 0.4 46.6 52.1 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.4%