East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#159
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#180
Pace63.3#319
Improvement-0.1#181

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#183
First Shot-1.4#213
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#135
Layup/Dunks+2.1#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#315
Freethrows+1.7#85
Improvement-0.5#228

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#154
First Shot-0.2#177
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#135
Layups/Dunks-0.4#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#326
Freethrows+1.3#92
Improvement+0.4#148
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 1.9% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 58.8% 65.2% 39.9%
.500 or above in Conference 47.4% 50.3% 38.6%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.5% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 6.5% 10.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.8% 1.9% 1.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 74.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 410 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 268   Coastal Carolina W 63-59 79%     1 - 0 -4.7 -1.6 -2.4
  Nov 16, 2024 87   George Mason W 78-77 2OT 36%     2 - 0 +4.4 +1.3 +3.1
  Nov 21, 2024 167   Jacksonville St. L 78-86 52%     2 - 1 -8.6 +4.4 -13.1
  Nov 22, 2024 344   Stetson W 71-64 86%     3 - 1 -4.8 -6.8 +2.2
  Nov 23, 2024 199   Illinois-Chicago W 72-55 56%     4 - 1 +15.4 +4.9 +12.0
  Nov 29, 2024 321   N.C. A&T W 93-69 86%     5 - 1 +12.0 +15.3 -3.0
  Dec 03, 2024 134   UNC Wilmington L 53-67 55%     5 - 2 -15.5 -19.9 +3.9
  Dec 07, 2024 69   @ South Carolina L 68-75 14%     5 - 3 +4.3 +12.8 -9.8
  Dec 11, 2024 182   North Alabama L 67-74 65%     5 - 4 -11.1 -8.1 -3.0
  Dec 17, 2024 248   Florida International W 75-64 77%     6 - 4 +3.2 +0.3 +2.8
  Dec 21, 2024 238   Gardner-Webb W 75-68 75%    
  Dec 31, 2024 180   @ South Florida L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 05, 2025 85   Florida Atlantic L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 08, 2025 119   Temple W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 37   @ Memphis L 66-81 8%    
  Jan 14, 2025 80   North Texas L 59-63 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 110   @ Wichita St. L 67-74 26%    
  Jan 21, 2025 252   @ Tulsa W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 180   South Florida W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 119   @ Temple L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 05, 2025 196   Rice W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 230   @ Texas San Antonio W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 129   UAB W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 193   @ Charlotte L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 203   @ Tulane L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 23, 2025 230   Texas San Antonio W 76-70 72%    
  Mar 02, 2025 193   Charlotte W 68-64 64%    
  Mar 06, 2025 203   Tulane W 71-66 67%    
  Mar 09, 2025 85   @ Florida Atlantic L 70-80 20%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 5.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.7 2.9 0.3 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.2 4.1 0.5 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 4.2 5.0 0.9 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 5.4 1.6 0.1 9.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.9 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.4 7.2 10.6 13.1 14.0 14.3 11.8 9.2 6.1 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 80.9% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 55.1% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 29.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 18.1% 18.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.6% 14.9% 14.9% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 1.6% 8.7% 8.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5
13-5 3.4% 7.9% 7.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.2
12-6 6.1% 5.1% 5.1% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.8
11-7 9.2% 3.6% 3.6% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.9
10-8 11.8% 2.2% 2.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.6
9-9 14.3% 1.1% 1.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.1
8-10 14.0% 0.7% 0.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9
7-11 13.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.1
6-12 10.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 10.5
5-13 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 7.2
4-14 4.4% 4.4
3-15 2.2% 2.2
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 98.2 0.0%