East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#145
Expected Predictive Rating+12.3#36
Pace63.2#331
Improvement+0.9#88

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#173
First Shot-5.2#316
After Offensive Rebound+5.3#11
Layup/Dunks-7.1#351
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#289
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#240
Freethrows+5.6#8
Improvement+0.0#174

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#142
First Shot+4.5#59
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#331
Layups/Dunks+3.6#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#137
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#195
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement+0.9#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.7% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.6 11.4 12.2
.500 or above 60.9% 71.5% 46.0%
.500 or above in Conference 43.8% 50.1% 34.9%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.4% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 6.9% 13.1%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round2.7% 3.5% 1.6%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Neutral) - 58.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 42 - 6
Quad 36 - 57 - 11
Quad 48 - 215 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 295   Coastal Carolina W 63-59 85%     1 - 0 -6.1 -2.4 -2.9
  Nov 16, 2024 92   George Mason W 78-77 2OT 44%     2 - 0 +3.6 -0.6 +4.1
  Nov 21, 2024 183   Jacksonville St. W 65-63 58%    
  Nov 29, 2024 285   N.C. A&T W 78-68 83%    
  Dec 03, 2024 150   UNC Wilmington W 72-68 63%    
  Dec 07, 2024 72   @ South Carolina L 63-73 19%    
  Dec 11, 2024 186   North Alabama W 73-68 68%    
  Dec 17, 2024 275   Florida International W 76-66 81%    
  Dec 21, 2024 219   Gardner-Webb W 73-66 73%    
  Dec 31, 2024 120   @ South Florida L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 05, 2025 73   Florida Atlantic L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 08, 2025 114   Temple W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 33   @ Memphis L 66-80 11%    
  Jan 14, 2025 84   North Texas L 59-62 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 21, 2025 185   @ Tulsa L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 120   South Florida W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 114   @ Temple L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 05, 2025 172   Rice W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 273   @ Texas San Antonio W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 11, 2025 103   UAB L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 142   @ Charlotte L 62-65 39%    
  Feb 19, 2025 146   @ Tulane L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 23, 2025 273   Texas San Antonio W 77-67 80%    
  Mar 02, 2025 142   Charlotte W 65-62 59%    
  Mar 06, 2025 146   Tulane W 72-69 61%    
  Mar 09, 2025 73   @ Florida Atlantic L 69-79 20%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.2 2.1 0.2 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.5 3.0 0.3 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.0 0.6 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.7 1.2 0.1 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.0 1.9 0.1 0.0 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.3 2.6 0.3 9.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.5 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.2 8.5 10.3 12.0 12.4 11.8 10.2 8.0 6.1 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 83.7% 0.3    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 67.1% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 35.4% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 81.0% 35.7% 45.2% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.4%
16-2 0.4% 41.5% 20.4% 21.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 26.5%
15-3 1.1% 25.0% 16.7% 8.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 10.0%
14-4 2.2% 15.7% 12.5% 3.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 3.6%
13-5 4.0% 12.2% 11.4% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.8%
12-6 6.1% 7.5% 7.4% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.7 0.0%
11-7 8.0% 5.1% 5.1% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.6
10-8 10.2% 2.6% 2.6% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.9
9-9 11.8% 1.4% 1.4% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.6
8-10 12.4% 0.8% 0.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3
7-11 12.0% 0.5% 0.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0
6-12 10.3% 0.2% 0.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3
5-13 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 8.5
4-14 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-15 3.9% 3.9
2-16 1.9% 1.9
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.8% 2.5% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.2 0.3%