Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#63
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#74
Pace75.6#37
Improvement-0.2#193

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#88
First Shot+2.2#109
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#129
Layup/Dunks+4.2#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#340
Freethrows+3.9#20
Improvement+0.9#107

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#43
First Shot+5.6#34
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#203
Layups/Dunks+3.6#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#58
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#128
Freethrows-1.1#260
Improvement-1.1#272
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.4% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.8% 21.8% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.1% 19.8% 9.4%
Average Seed 9.8 9.6 10.1
.500 or above 91.2% 95.7% 85.8%
.500 or above in Conference 59.5% 70.6% 45.7%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.8% 2.9%
First Four6.4% 7.9% 4.6%
First Round13.5% 17.7% 8.2%
Second Round6.0% 8.1% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 2.1% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Home) - 55.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 7
Quad 25 - 56 - 11
Quad 38 - 114 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 214   Northern Kentucky W 74-62 90%     1 - 0 +6.5 -6.1 +11.5
  Nov 09, 2024 196   Rice W 73-65 83%     2 - 0 +6.4 -1.1 +7.4
  Nov 12, 2024 286   Tarleton St. W 72-52 95%     3 - 0 +10.2 -5.2 +14.7
  Nov 15, 2024 7   Florida L 74-87 27%     3 - 1 +2.1 +2.1 +0.8
  Nov 19, 2024 151   Hofstra W 79-61 86%     4 - 1 +15.3 +8.6 +6.8
  Nov 22, 2024 119   Temple W 78-69 72%     5 - 1 +11.6 +3.3 +7.9
  Nov 24, 2024 191   Massachusetts W 92-59 83%     6 - 1 +31.7 +15.6 +14.9
  Nov 26, 2024 311   Western Carolina W 91-57 96%     7 - 1 +22.6 +7.9 +11.9
  Dec 03, 2024 56   @ LSU L 75-85 36%     7 - 2 +2.6 +5.7 -2.7
  Dec 07, 2024 78   @ North Carolina St. L 74-84 OT 45%     7 - 3 0 - 1 +0.1 +7.0 -7.0
  Dec 14, 2024 203   Tulane W 77-64 84%     8 - 3 +11.0 +3.8 +7.4
  Dec 17, 2024 187   Winthrop W 82-64 88%     9 - 3 +13.7 +0.2 +12.0
  Dec 21, 2024 51   Louisville W 78-76 55%    
  Jan 04, 2025 95   Syracuse W 82-76 72%    
  Jan 07, 2025 93   @ Miami (FL) L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 35   @ Clemson L 69-75 27%    
  Jan 15, 2025 33   Pittsburgh L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 111   Georgia Tech W 80-72 77%    
  Jan 22, 2025 118   @ California W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 94   @ Stanford L 76-77 50%    
  Jan 29, 2025 126   Virginia Tech W 77-68 81%    
  Feb 01, 2025 152   @ Boston College W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 04, 2025 83   Notre Dame W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 12, 2025 86   @ Wake Forest L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 35   Clemson L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 93   Miami (FL) W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 51   @ Louisville L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 24, 2025 22   North Carolina L 81-83 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 2   @ Duke L 65-80 8%    
  Mar 04, 2025 90   @ Virginia L 62-63 48%    
  Mar 07, 2025 49   SMU W 79-78 56%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 3.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.6 3.7 3.8 0.7 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 5.0 1.5 0.1 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.1 4.6 0.8 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 4.4 1.8 0.1 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 3.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 7.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 3.5 1.0 0.0 6.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.8 0.1 5.1 13th
14th 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 4.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 0.9 0.0 3.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.9 7.7 10.6 12.9 14.9 13.5 11.7 8.8 5.7 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 80.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 44.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 19.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 5.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 97.2% 12.6% 84.6% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.8%
16-4 1.2% 94.1% 12.4% 81.7% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 93.2%
15-5 3.1% 80.9% 8.5% 72.3% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.6 79.1%
14-6 5.7% 60.6% 5.7% 54.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.0 2.2 58.2%
13-7 8.8% 39.7% 4.3% 35.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 0.1 5.3 37.0%
12-8 11.7% 24.0% 2.4% 21.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 0.2 8.9 22.2%
11-9 13.5% 12.6% 1.7% 10.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.2 11.8 11.1%
10-10 14.9% 5.4% 0.8% 4.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 14.1 4.7%
9-11 12.9% 1.6% 0.5% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 12.7 1.1%
8-12 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 0.1%
7-13 7.7% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 7.7
6-14 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 4.9
5-15 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 2.6
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 16.8% 1.9% 14.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.2 6.3 0.7 0.0 83.2 15.1%