Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#83
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#108
Pace76.9#22
Improvement+3.7#35

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#121
First Shot+0.5#162
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#97
Layup/Dunks+1.7#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#294
Freethrows+2.6#42
Improvement+0.5#150

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#57
First Shot+3.3#79
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#65
Layups/Dunks+1.3#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#119
Freethrows+2.0#57
Improvement+3.2#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.3% 54.6% 48.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 98.7%
Conference Champion 63.6% 68.3% 46.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round53.3% 54.6% 48.6%
Second Round10.2% 11.0% 7.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 2.6% 2.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Away) - 77.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 37 - 39 - 6
Quad 414 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 309   Cal St. Fullerton W 89-79 94%     1 - 0 -1.2 +6.6 -8.4
  Nov 09, 2024 135   Western Kentucky W 74-72 77%     2 - 0 +1.0 -2.4 +3.3
  Nov 14, 2024 64   Arizona St. L 76-87 43%     2 - 1 -2.4 +4.1 -5.9
  Nov 20, 2024 228   UC Davis L 68-75 89%     2 - 2 -13.5 -7.5 -5.6
  Nov 22, 2024 182   Norfolk St. W 91-73 84%     3 - 2 +14.4 +14.7 -0.5
  Nov 26, 2024 87   Stanford W 78-71 51%     4 - 2 +13.5 +1.4 +11.6
  Dec 03, 2024 181   Hawaii W 78-72 84%     5 - 2 +2.4 -2.8 +4.7
  Dec 14, 2024 34   Georgia L 68-73 28%     5 - 3 +7.8 +3.0 +4.9
  Dec 16, 2024 120   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-74 55%     5 - 4 -2.6 -2.4 -0.5
  Dec 19, 2024 357   Chicago St. W 74-51 98%     6 - 4 +6.1 -9.3 +13.6
  Dec 22, 2024 102   Saint Louis W 73-72 70%     7 - 4 +2.3 +0.2 +2.1
  Dec 28, 2024 290   San Diego W 68-55 90%     8 - 4 +5.5 -11.4 +15.9
  Dec 30, 2024 157   Bryant W 112-66 81%     9 - 4 +43.7 +12.2 +20.7
  Jan 04, 2025 240   Southern Utah W 82-71 90%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +3.9 +3.3 +0.1
  Jan 09, 2025 140   @ Utah Valley L 64-72 60%     10 - 5 1 - 1 -3.7 -3.8 +0.1
  Jan 16, 2025 242   Abilene Christian W 88-58 90%     11 - 5 2 - 1 +22.8 +12.5 +9.4
  Jan 18, 2025 262   Tarleton St. W 88-64 91%     12 - 5 3 - 1 +15.6 +15.7 +0.3
  Jan 23, 2025 240   @ Southern Utah W 81-73 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 284   @ Utah Tech W 81-70 85%    
  Jan 30, 2025 150   Seattle W 78-69 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 140   Utah Valley W 77-69 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 172   @ California Baptist W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 13, 2025 262   @ Tarleton St. W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 201   @ Texas Arlington W 83-77 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 172   California Baptist W 78-68 83%    
  Feb 27, 2025 201   Texas Arlington W 85-74 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 150   @ Seattle W 75-72 60%    
  Mar 06, 2025 284   Utah Tech W 84-67 94%    
  Mar 08, 2025 242   @ Abilene Christian W 76-68 78%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.4 3.9 12.6 21.0 18.3 7.4 63.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.4 8.8 8.4 3.6 0.5 25.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 3.7 2.2 0.4 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 2.8 4th
5th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.4 8.0 15.0 21.4 24.6 18.8 7.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 7.4    7.2 0.2
14-2 97.3% 18.3    16.6 1.7
13-3 85.4% 21.0    15.9 5.0 0.1
12-4 59.0% 12.6    6.2 5.5 0.9 0.0
11-5 26.0% 3.9    1.1 1.9 0.9 0.1
10-6 4.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 63.6% 63.6 47.0 14.3 2.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 7.4% 67.6% 67.6% 11.5 0.1 0.1 2.4 2.4 0.1 2.4
14-2 18.8% 63.4% 63.4% 12.2 0.8 7.8 3.1 0.2 6.9
13-3 24.6% 57.8% 57.8% 12.6 0.2 6.5 6.6 1.0 0.0 10.4
12-4 21.4% 53.8% 53.8% 12.9 0.0 3.1 6.4 1.9 0.0 9.9
11-5 15.0% 44.0% 44.0% 13.2 0.8 3.6 2.1 0.1 8.4
10-6 8.0% 34.3% 34.3% 13.4 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 5.3
9-7 3.4% 28.7% 28.7% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 2.4
8-8 1.1% 26.7% 26.7% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
7-9 0.3% 5.9% 5.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 53.3% 53.3% 0.0% 12.6 0.1 0.1 3.4 21.0 21.5 6.9 0.3 46.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.0% 100.0% 11.5 1.4 2.2 46.7 47.9 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%