IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+6.8	#85
Expected Predictive Rating	+10.5	#41

Pace	69.8	#167
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.8	#77

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.0	#88

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	0.9%	1.8%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	2.2%	3.9%	0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid	43.1%	49.1%	38.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	2.5%	4.5%	1.0%
Average Seed	11.6	11.1	12.2

.500 or above	97.8%	99.3%	96.4%
.500 or above in Conference	96.3%	97.9%	95.0%
Conference Champion	55.3%	61.9%	49.7%
Last Place in Conference	0.3%	0.1%	0.5%

First Four	0.8%	1.2%	0.4%
First Round	42.8%	48.6%	37.8%
Second Round	12.4%	16.1%	9.2%
Sweet Sixteen	4.0%	5.3%	2.8%
Elite Eight	1.1%	1.5%	0.7%
Final Four	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Neutral) - 46.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	2 - 2	2 - 3
Quad 3	7 - 3	9 - 6
Quad 4	14 - 1	23 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	262	Cal St. Fullerton	W	89-79	91%	1 - 0			+1.8	+8.0	-6.7
Nov 09, 2024	118	Western Kentucky	W	74-72	74%	2 - 0			+2.1	-4.3	+6.3
Nov 14, 2024	72	Arizona St.	L	72-73	46%
Nov 20, 2024	168	UC Davis	W	79-69	82%
Nov 22, 2024	230	Norfolk St.	W	78-65	89%
Nov 26, 2024	70	Stanford	L	71-72	46%
Dec 03, 2024	175	Hawaii	W	76-65	83%
Dec 14, 2024	68	Georgia	L	74-75	46%
Dec 16, 2024	92	@ Louisiana Tech	L	70-72	43%
Dec 19, 2024	342	Chicago St.	W	84-63	97%
Dec 22, 2024	102	Saint Louis	W	80-75	67%
Dec 28, 2024	277	San Diego	W	81-68	87%
Dec 30, 2024	193	Bryant	W	85-73	84%
Jan 04, 2025	214	Southern Utah	W	81-68	87%
Jan 09, 2025	124	@ Utah Valley	W	71-70	53%
Jan 16, 2025	237	Abilene Christian	W	79-66	87%
Jan 18, 2025	299	Tarleton St.	W	80-63	93%
Jan 23, 2025	214	@ Southern Utah	W	78-71	72%
Jan 25, 2025	301	@ Utah Tech	W	80-69	83%
Jan 30, 2025	152	Seattle	W	75-66	78%
Feb 01, 2025	124	Utah Valley	W	74-67	72%
Feb 08, 2025	181	@ California Baptist	W	72-67	66%
Feb 13, 2025	299	@ Tarleton St.	W	77-66	82%
Feb 15, 2025	160	@ Texas Arlington	W	81-78	61%
Feb 22, 2025	181	California Baptist	W	75-64	82%
Feb 27, 2025	160	Texas Arlington	W	84-75	79%
Mar 01, 2025	152	@ Seattle	W	72-69	60%
Mar 06, 2025	301	Utah Tech	W	83-66	92%
Mar 08, 2025	237	@ Abilene Christian	W	76-69	73%
Projected Record						22 - 7	12 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.3	2.2	7.4	13.7	15.3	11.2	5.1		55.3	1st
2nd									0.0	0.3	2.6	6.6	7.2	3.8	0.7				21.2	2nd
3rd									0.2	2.0	4.5	3.4	0.9	0.1					11.1	3rd
4th								0.1	1.2	2.7	1.6	0.2							5.8	4th
5th						0.0	0.1	0.8	1.6	0.8	0.1								3.4	5th
6th						0.1	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.0									1.8	6th
7th				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0										0.9	7th
8th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0											0.4	8th
9th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0													0.1	9th

Total		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.0	2.0	3.4	5.9	9.1	12.4	15.5	17.5	16.1	11.2	5.1			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	5.1		5.1
15-1	100.0%	11.2		11.0	0.2
14-2	95.4%	15.3		13.4	1.9
13-3	78.2%	13.7		9.6	3.9	0.2
12-4	47.8%	7.4		3.4	3.1	0.8	0.1
11-5	17.9%	2.2		0.5	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.0
10-6	3.0%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	55.3%	55.3		43.0	10.3	1.8	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	5.1%		83.8%	74.4%	9.5%	8.0		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.9	0.5	0.1				0.8		36.9%
15-1	11.2%		71.2%	66.4%	4.8%	10.5			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.9	2.6	2.4	0.4	0.0			3.2		14.3%
14-2	16.1%		59.3%	57.3%	2.0%	11.8						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	2.3	5.0	1.4	0.2	0.0		6.5		4.7%
13-3	17.5%		49.0%	48.5%	0.5%	12.2										0.0	0.0	1.1	4.8	2.3	0.4	0.0		8.9		0.9%
12-4	15.5%		39.2%	39.2%	0.0%	12.6											0.0	0.3	2.8	2.3	0.7	0.1		9.4		0.1%
11-5	12.4%		29.6%	29.6%	0.0%	13.0												0.0	1.1	1.7	0.7	0.2	0.0	8.8		0.0%
10-6	9.1%		20.0%	20.0%		13.2												0.0	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0	7.3
9-7	5.9%		12.3%	12.3%		13.5													0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	5.2
8-8	3.4%		7.9%	7.9%		13.9													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	3.2
7-9	2.0%		4.7%	4.7%		14.1														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9
6-10	1.0%		3.7%	3.7%		14.5														0.0	0.0	0.0		1.0
5-11	0.5%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	0.5
4-12	0.2%																							0.2
3-13	0.0%																							0.0
2-14	0.0%																							0.0
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16

Total	100%		43.1%	41.7%	1.4%	11.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.9	1.8	7.2	17.0	9.3	3.0	0.6	0.0	56.9		2.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.5%	100.0%	3.7	9.5	19.0	15.0	26.5	15.6	10.9	2.0		1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	96.0%	6.0		8.0	8.0	20.0	12.0	8.0	12.0	12.0	4.0		12.0