Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#102
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#119
Pace75.4#36
Improvement+0.6#140

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#123
First Shot-0.1#172
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#66
Layup/Dunks+0.9#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#247
Freethrows+0.8#126
Improvement-1.8#306

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#99
First Shot+3.1#86
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#200
Layups/Dunks+0.9#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#109
Freethrows+2.5#43
Improvement+2.4#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.7% 39.9% 29.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 98.3% 98.4% 92.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.9% 96.0% 90.9%
Conference Champion 54.3% 54.5% 43.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round39.7% 39.9% 29.6%
Second Round7.0% 7.0% 4.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 1.7% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 98.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 37 - 48 - 7
Quad 413 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 89-79 90%     1 - 0 +0.9 +8.2 -7.9
  Nov 09, 2024 106   Western Kentucky W 74-72 64%     2 - 0 +3.3 -1.7 +4.8
  Nov 14, 2024 61   Arizona St. L 76-87 34%     2 - 1 -1.9 +3.8 -5.1
  Nov 20, 2024 184   UC Davis L 68-75 81%     2 - 2 -11.2 -6.9 -3.9
  Nov 22, 2024 196   Norfolk St. W 91-73 82%     3 - 2 +13.3 +13.9 -0.8
  Nov 26, 2024 87   Stanford W 78-71 45%     4 - 2 +13.2 +2.1 +10.7
  Dec 03, 2024 174   Hawaii W 78-72 80%     5 - 2 +2.2 -2.6 +4.3
  Dec 14, 2024 40   Georgia L 68-73 26%     5 - 3 +6.6 +1.0 +5.7
  Dec 16, 2024 101   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-74 38%     5 - 4 +0.0 -0.2 -0.2
  Dec 19, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 86-64 98%    
  Dec 22, 2024 135   Saint Louis W 84-77 73%    
  Dec 28, 2024 315   San Diego W 83-69 90%    
  Dec 30, 2024 176   Bryant W 87-78 80%    
  Jan 04, 2025 210   Southern Utah W 83-73 83%    
  Jan 09, 2025 165   @ Utah Valley W 75-73 59%    
  Jan 16, 2025 188   Abilene Christian W 79-70 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 303   Tarleton St. W 79-63 92%    
  Jan 23, 2025 210   @ Southern Utah W 80-76 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 298   @ Utah Tech W 80-71 80%    
  Jan 30, 2025 140   Seattle W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 165   Utah Valley W 78-70 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 175   @ California Baptist W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 13, 2025 303   @ Tarleton St. W 76-66 80%    
  Feb 15, 2025 162   @ Texas Arlington W 82-80 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 175   California Baptist W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 27, 2025 162   Texas Arlington W 85-77 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 140   @ Seattle W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 06, 2025 298   Utah Tech W 83-68 91%    
  Mar 08, 2025 188   @ Abilene Christian W 76-73 62%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.8 11.4 15.2 12.8 7.2 2.2 54.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.5 8.2 5.7 1.7 0.2 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.0 5.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.2 1.3 0.1 6.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.1 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.6 7.6 11.6 15.4 17.4 16.9 12.9 7.2 2.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.2    2.2
15-1 100.0% 7.2    7.1 0.0
14-2 98.8% 12.8    12.0 0.7
13-3 89.6% 15.2    12.2 2.9 0.1
12-4 65.5% 11.4    6.2 4.4 0.8 0.0
11-5 31.1% 4.8    1.3 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
10-6 6.5% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 54.3% 54.3 41.0 10.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.2% 70.4% 70.2% 0.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.9%
15-1 7.2% 62.6% 62.4% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 2.7 0.3%
14-2 12.9% 56.8% 56.8% 12.3 0.4 4.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 5.6
13-3 16.9% 49.7% 49.7% 12.7 0.1 3.4 4.1 0.8 0.0 8.5
12-4 17.4% 43.5% 43.5% 13.0 0.0 1.6 4.1 1.7 0.1 9.8
11-5 15.4% 34.5% 34.5% 13.3 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.1
10-6 11.6% 24.7% 24.7% 13.6 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.8
9-7 7.6% 18.1% 18.1% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.3
8-8 4.6% 10.2% 10.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.1
7-9 2.4% 8.4% 8.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
6-10 1.1% 5.5% 5.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-11 0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
4-12 0.1% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 39.7% 39.7% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 13.6 15.5 7.0 1.1 0.1 60.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 9.8 0.2 1.4 3.4 6.9 5.2 3.8 9.6 13.5 41.2 14.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 2.7% 11.0 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%