Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#99
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#140
Pace64.4#299
Improvement+4.1#12

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#72
First Shot+6.0#41
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#282
Layup/Dunks+1.2#133
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#52
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#80
Freethrows-1.3#256
Improvement+3.1#15

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#131
First Shot+0.5#160
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#136
Layups/Dunks+3.4#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#186
Freethrows+1.6#74
Improvement+1.1#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 18.7% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.0 12.4
.500 or above 90.7% 95.9% 87.3%
.500 or above in Conference 90.6% 93.3% 88.8%
Conference Champion 18.5% 22.3% 16.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round15.7% 18.6% 13.8%
Second Round3.2% 4.1% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Neutral) - 39.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 62 - 7
Quad 38 - 410 - 12
Quad 49 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 141   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87-68 75%     1 - 0 +17.1 +13.9 +3.8
  Nov 10, 2024 63   UC Irvine L 60-80 48%     1 - 1 -14.3 -5.4 -9.1
  Nov 14, 2024 100   @ Wichita St. L 73-79 39%     1 - 2 +2.0 +5.6 -3.7
  Nov 19, 2024 328   Western Illinois W 82-56 94%     2 - 2 +13.1 +12.6 +3.5
  Nov 28, 2024 72   North Texas L 48-68 41%     2 - 3 -12.4 -12.9 -1.2
  Nov 29, 2024 89   St. Bonaventure L 56-68 47%     2 - 4 -5.9 -5.9 -1.4
  Dec 04, 2024 215   @ Illinois-Chicago W 83-56 68%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +27.3 +21.6 +9.4
  Dec 07, 2024 344   Northern Illinois W 101-57 96%     4 - 4 +29.6 +27.3 +4.5
  Dec 13, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha W 78-58 92%     5 - 4 +10.0 +5.7 +5.8
  Dec 16, 2024 212   Montana W 104-76 84%     6 - 4 +22.5 +31.0 -7.4
  Dec 21, 2024 68   Washington St. L 72-75 40%    
  Dec 29, 2024 169   Southern Illinois W 75-66 80%    
  Jan 01, 2025 129   Belmont W 80-74 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 227   @ Valparaiso W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 08, 2025 116   Murray St. W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 11, 2025 160   @ Illinois St. W 71-69 59%    
  Jan 14, 2025 268   Evansville W 78-64 90%    
  Jan 18, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 21, 2025 191   Missouri St. W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 168   @ Indiana St. W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 29, 2025 70   @ Drake L 62-68 31%    
  Feb 02, 2025 76   Bradley W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 05, 2025 191   @ Missouri St. W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 160   Illinois St. W 74-66 78%    
  Feb 11, 2025 168   Indiana St. W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 16, 2025 116   @ Murray St. L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 19, 2025 129   @ Belmont W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 23, 2025 70   Drake W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 26, 2025 215   Illinois-Chicago W 78-67 84%    
  Mar 02, 2025 76   @ Bradley L 70-75 33%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 5.2 4.9 2.6 0.9 0.2 18.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 6.4 6.8 3.8 1.1 0.1 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 7.2 5.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 19.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.0 4.1 0.9 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.6 7.0 10.3 12.9 14.6 14.4 12.3 9.3 6.0 2.7 0.9 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 96.8% 2.6    2.4 0.3 0.0
17-3 81.2% 4.9    3.7 1.1 0.1
16-4 56.3% 5.2    2.9 2.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 27.0% 3.3    1.2 1.6 0.5 0.0
14-6 8.5% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 11.4 5.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 65.9% 51.8% 14.1% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 29.3%
19-1 0.9% 43.7% 41.2% 2.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 4.2%
18-2 2.7% 35.7% 35.3% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.8 0.7%
17-3 6.0% 32.3% 32.2% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.1 4.0 0.1%
16-4 9.3% 26.6% 26.6% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.8 0.1%
15-5 12.3% 22.5% 22.5% 12.1 0.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 9.5
14-6 14.4% 17.4% 17.4% 12.4 0.1 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.9
13-7 14.6% 13.5% 13.5% 12.6 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 12.6
12-8 12.9% 9.8% 9.8% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 11.6
11-9 10.3% 7.0% 7.0% 13.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.6
10-10 7.0% 5.3% 5.3% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.7
9-11 4.6% 3.1% 3.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.4
8-12 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
7-13 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.7% 15.7% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.1 8.8 3.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 84.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.6 4.0 8.0 20.0 12.0 28.0 8.0 12.0 8.0