IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.1	#120
Expected Predictive Rating	-5.8	#277

Pace	69.3	#182
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.2	#145

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.9	#111

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.4%	4.5%	1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%
Average Seed	11.5	11.5	12.6

.500 or above	55.1%	56.1%	28.0%
.500 or above in Conference	47.4%	48.1%	30.0%
Conference Champion	3.7%	3.8%	1.6%
Last Place in Conference	7.6%	7.3%	15.7%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
First Round	4.3%	4.4%	1.5%
Second Round	1.1%	1.2%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 2	2 - 5	3 - 10
Quad 3	5 - 4	8 - 14
Quad 4	8 - 1	15 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	21	Florida	L	83-98	18%	0 - 1			-1.9	+6.7	-7.3
Nov 08, 2024	100	@ College of Charleston	L	71-86	32%	0 - 2			-7.0	-8.5	+3.5
Nov 12, 2024	361	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	85-69	96%	1 - 2			-1.8	+1.2	-3.1
Nov 15, 2024	349	West Georgia	W	82-63	96%
Nov 21, 2024	307	Portland	W	77-66	83%
Dec 03, 2024	322	Stetson	W	78-63	92%
Dec 07, 2024	108	@ Loyola Chicago	L	69-73	36%
Dec 14, 2024	43	@ Utah St.	L	70-80	17%
Dec 18, 2024	291	Bethune-Cookman	W	79-66	88%
Dec 21, 2024	353	Texas A&M - Commerce	W	78-59	96%
Dec 31, 2024	154	East Carolina	W	71-66	68%
Jan 06, 2025	86	@ Wichita St.	L	69-76	28%
Jan 11, 2025	145	@ Tulane	L	77-78	47%
Jan 15, 2025	101	UAB	W	76-75	54%
Jan 18, 2025	142	Tulsa	W	79-74	66%
Jan 22, 2025	133	@ Charlotte	L	66-68	44%
Jan 25, 2025	154	@ East Carolina	L	68-69	47%
Jan 28, 2025	191	Rice	W	73-65	75%
Feb 02, 2025	74	@ Florida Atlantic	L	76-84	25%
Feb 06, 2025	112	Temple	W	72-70	58%
Feb 09, 2025	86	Wichita St.	L	72-73	48%
Feb 13, 2025	34	Memphis	L	74-79	33%
Feb 16, 2025	101	@ UAB	L	73-78	34%
Feb 19, 2025	238	@ Texas San Antonio	W	79-75	61%
Feb 23, 2025	73	North Texas	L	62-64	44%
Feb 26, 2025	112	@ Temple	L	69-73	38%
Mar 02, 2025	74	Florida Atlantic	L	79-81	45%
Mar 07, 2025	34	@ Memphis	L	71-82	17%
Projected Record						14 - 14	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.7	1.2	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.0		3.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.5	2.2	1.2	0.3	0.0				5.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	2.1	3.1	1.4	0.2	0.0					7.0	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	2.3	3.6	1.6	0.2	0.0						7.9	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.8	4.5	2.2	0.2								8.9	5th
6th								0.0	1.2	4.4	3.2	0.4	0.0								9.2	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	4.1	4.2	0.7	0.0									9.8	7th
8th							0.4	3.3	5.1	1.3	0.0										10.1	8th
9th					0.0	0.3	2.4	4.6	1.9	0.1											9.3	9th
10th				0.0	0.2	2.0	4.4	2.4	0.2												9.3	10th
11th			0.0	0.3	1.7	3.5	2.4	0.4	0.0												8.4	11th
12th		0.0	0.4	1.5	2.6	1.9	0.4	0.0													6.8	12th
13th	0.1	0.4	1.2	1.4	0.8	0.2	0.0														4.1	13th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.6	3.2	5.3	7.9	10.0	11.5	12.6	12.1	11.1	8.6	6.6	4.5	2.6	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.0			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	94.8%	0.5		0.4	0.1
15-3	74.1%	0.9		0.6	0.3	0.0
14-4	45.7%	1.2		0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	16.3%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.4%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0					0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.7%	3.7		2.0	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%							0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
17-1	0.2%		77.4%	35.8%	41.5%	7.3				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		64.7%
16-2	0.5%		55.6%	32.0%	23.5%	9.2					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.2		34.6%
15-3	1.3%		34.1%	20.6%	13.5%	10.5								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1					0.8		17.0%
14-4	2.6%		20.4%	16.8%	3.6%	11.0									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0				2.1		4.3%
13-5	4.5%		15.7%	15.3%	0.4%	11.5									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1				3.8		0.4%
12-6	6.6%		10.1%	10.1%		12.0											0.0	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.0			5.9
11-7	8.6%		6.4%	6.4%		12.2												0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0			8.0
10-8	11.1%		3.9%	3.9%		12.4												0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0			10.6
9-9	12.1%		2.2%	2.2%		12.7												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		11.8
8-10	12.6%		1.1%	1.1%		13.4													0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		12.4
7-11	11.5%		1.0%	1.0%		14.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11.4
6-12	10.0%		0.3%	0.3%		15.3																0.0	0.0	9.9
5-13	7.9%		0.4%	0.4%		15.8																0.0	0.0	7.9
4-14	5.3%		0.2%	0.2%		15.7																0.0	0.0	5.3
3-15	3.2%																							3.2
2-16	1.6%																							1.6
1-17	0.5%																							0.5
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		4.4%	3.9%	0.5%	11.5		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	1.0	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	95.6		0.5%