Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#280
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#284
Pace75.3#31
Improvement-0.9#229

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#320
First Shot-5.1#314
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#230
Layup/Dunks-1.7#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#89
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#276
Freethrows-1.9#288
Improvement-2.4#294

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#196
First Shot-0.3#192
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#237
Layups/Dunks-2.1#263
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#145
Freethrows-0.7#238
Improvement+1.5#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Home) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 60 - 7
Quad 32 - 82 - 14
Quad 48 - 610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 301   Bowling Green W 77-68 64%     1 - 0 -1.4 -5.0 +3.1
  Nov 07, 2024 104   @ UAB L 84-98 11%     1 - 1 -7.3 -1.1 -4.5
  Nov 20, 2024 111   @ South Dakota St. L 76-101 13%     1 - 2 -19.2 -8.5 -6.3
  Nov 24, 2024 188   @ Montana St. L 59-79 24%     1 - 3 -19.0 -14.9 -3.4
  Nov 25, 2024 211   Abilene Christian L 74-82 35%     1 - 4 -10.6 +7.5 -18.6
  Nov 30, 2024 130   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 66-65 29%     2 - 4 +0.2 -1.7 +2.0
  Dec 05, 2024 311   Alabama St. W 81-64 68%     3 - 4 +5.7 -1.9 +6.7
  Dec 10, 2024 144   @ Tulane L 58-86 17%     3 - 5 -24.4 -13.5 -10.9
  Dec 14, 2024 25   Mississippi L 46-77 3%     3 - 6 -16.1 -14.4 -4.8
  Dec 17, 2024 194   Lamar L 65-69 42%     3 - 7 -8.4 -6.6 -1.9
  Dec 21, 2024 190   Marshall W 68-66 41%     4 - 7 1 - 0 -2.2 +6.9 -8.7
  Jan 02, 2025 138   @ James Madison L 72-83 16%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -7.2 +2.3 -9.9
  Jan 04, 2025 286   @ Old Dominion L 71-74 41%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -7.4 -2.7 -4.7
  Jan 09, 2025 336   Louisiana Monroe W 84-67 76%     5 - 9 2 - 2 +3.0 -3.7 +4.7
  Jan 11, 2025 202   Texas St. W 92-88 OT 43%     6 - 9 3 - 2 -0.8 -1.1 -0.4
  Jan 15, 2025 133   @ South Alabama L 62-75 16%     6 - 10 3 - 3 -8.9 -7.1 -1.6
  Jan 18, 2025 202   @ Texas St. L 82-85 OT 25%     6 - 11 3 - 4 -2.7 -1.8 -0.5
  Jan 25, 2025 289   @ Louisiana W 67-59 42%     7 - 11 4 - 4 +3.5 -3.6 +7.5
  Jan 27, 2025 118   @ Troy L 61-70 14%     7 - 12 4 - 5 -3.7 -10.7 +7.4
  Jan 29, 2025 97   Arkansas St. L 68-81 20%     7 - 13 4 - 6 -10.5 -4.2 -6.0
  Feb 01, 2025 248   Georgia Southern W 72-68 53%     8 - 13 5 - 6 -3.4 -8.8 +5.2
  Feb 05, 2025 141   @ Appalachian St. L 58-60 17%     8 - 14 5 - 7 +1.7 -6.2 +7.8
  Feb 08, 2025 261   @ Ball St. L 76-77 36%     8 - 15 -3.9 -0.6 -3.3
  Feb 12, 2025 97   @ Arkansas St. L 67-101 10%     8 - 16 5 - 8 -26.5 -6.0 -17.8
  Feb 15, 2025 336   @ Louisiana Monroe L 74-81 59%     8 - 17 5 - 9 -15.9 -7.1 -8.3
  Feb 20, 2025 312   Coastal Carolina L 78-87 69%     8 - 18 5 - 10 -20.6 -9.3 -10.3
  Feb 22, 2025 289   Louisiana W 73-70 63%    
  Feb 26, 2025 133   South Alabama L 64-70 32%    
  Feb 28, 2025 118   Troy L 67-74 27%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.8 0.8 7th
8th 0.7 2.7 3.4 8th
9th 5.5 2.1 7.6 9th
10th 12.5 0.3 12.8 10th
11th 8.6 8.9 0.0 17.5 11th
12th 19.2 36.9 2.0 58.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 19.2 45.5 29.4 5.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 5.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 5.9
7-11 29.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 29.3
6-12 45.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 45.4
5-13 19.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 7.4%