Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#168
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#194
Pace66.3#268
Improvement-1.9#330

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#204
First Shot+0.7#158
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#278
Layup/Dunks+3.4#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#229
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#338
Freethrows+4.4#15
Improvement+1.1#64

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#144
First Shot-1.2#224
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#57
Layups/Dunks-0.5#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#239
Freethrows-0.8#237
Improvement-3.1#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 10.1% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 58.5% 70.9% 47.7%
.500 or above in Conference 70.5% 76.3% 65.5%
Conference Champion 8.7% 11.7% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.4% 2.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round7.6% 10.0% 5.6%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Neutral) - 46.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 410 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 286   Eastern Michigan W 64-44 80%     1 - 0 +10.7 -6.5 +19.0
  Nov 12, 2024 60   @ TCU L 71-76 13%     1 - 1 +6.9 +2.4 +4.7
  Nov 16, 2024 210   @ Abilene Christian L 60-72 46%     1 - 2 -11.3 -10.4 -1.1
  Nov 21, 2024 92   Bradley L 68-82 27%     1 - 3 -8.0 -1.3 -7.1
  Nov 22, 2024 136   Princeton W 83-80 43%     2 - 3 +4.5 +13.4 -8.7
  Nov 24, 2024 151   Ohio L 73-74 47%    
  Dec 01, 2024 260   @ Texas Southern W 70-68 57%    
  Dec 08, 2024 184   Rice W 69-65 64%    
  Dec 14, 2024 78   @ Florida Atlantic L 71-82 16%    
  Dec 21, 2024 219   Georgia Southern W 80-75 69%    
  Dec 29, 2024 167   Texas Arlington W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 02, 2025 193   @ Marshall L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 04, 2025 197   @ Appalachian St. L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 09, 2025 120   @ Troy L 66-72 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 253   @ Southern Miss W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 15, 2025 212   Georgia St. W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 253   Southern Miss W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 22, 2025 256   @ Louisiana W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 106   @ Arkansas St. L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 30, 2025 256   Louisiana W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 106   Arkansas St. L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 05, 2025 306   @ Old Dominion W 75-70 65%    
  Feb 13, 2025 320   @ Louisiana Monroe W 69-64 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 196   @ South Alabama L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 320   Louisiana Monroe W 72-61 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 196   South Alabama W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 25, 2025 120   Troy L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 28, 2025 117   James Madison L 72-73 48%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.4 2.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 8.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.8 2.7 0.8 0.1 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 4.8 2.9 0.7 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.4 4.2 0.9 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.8 5.0 1.1 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 4.8 1.9 0.1 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.8 2.6 0.2 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 2.8 0.9 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.0 0.1 4.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.4 7.8 10.1 12.6 13.3 13.1 11.3 8.5 5.9 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
16-2 96.1% 1.7    1.4 0.3 0.0
15-3 74.4% 2.6    1.6 0.9 0.1
14-4 41.1% 2.4    1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.3% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 4.8 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 37.3% 37.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.6% 37.5% 37.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 1.7% 29.1% 29.1% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2
15-3 3.5% 28.6% 28.6% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5
14-4 5.9% 20.3% 20.3% 13.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.7
13-5 8.5% 16.4% 16.4% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.1
12-6 11.3% 11.0% 11.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 10.1
11-7 13.1% 7.2% 7.2% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 12.2
10-8 13.3% 4.0% 4.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.7
9-9 12.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.2
8-10 10.1% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.0
7-11 7.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.8
6-12 5.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.4
5-13 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 1.7% 1.7
3-15 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.3 1.5 0.4 92.3 0.0%