Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#278
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#149
Pace71.5#112
Improvement-1.4#315

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#316
First Shot-7.3#349
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#67
Layup/Dunks-4.8#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#62
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#343
Freethrows+1.7#96
Improvement-1.3#338

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#201
First Shot+3.0#91
After Offensive Rebounds-4.0#336
Layups/Dunks+1.1#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#146
Freethrows+1.0#127
Improvement-0.1#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 6.1% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 45.9% 50.5% 25.7%
.500 or above in Conference 54.4% 57.3% 41.8%
Conference Champion 5.6% 6.3% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 4.8% 8.8%
First Four1.6% 1.6% 1.5%
First Round4.9% 5.3% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Home) - 81.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 413 - 815 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 30   @ Maryland L 52-86 3%     0 - 1 -18.2 -11.5 -6.5
  Nov 13, 2024 235   @ Bucknell W 93-89 2OT 30%     1 - 1 +3.3 +4.4 -1.8
  Nov 16, 2024 342   St. Francis (PA) W 66-58 81%     2 - 1 -7.2 -10.4 +3.4
  Nov 20, 2024 116   @ Georgetown L 51-79 12%     2 - 2 -21.4 -20.5 -0.8
  Nov 23, 2024 346   Delaware St. W 74-65 81%    
  Nov 30, 2024 231   @ Howard L 70-76 30%    
  Dec 06, 2024 233   @ Marist L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 08, 2024 271   Fairfield W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 14, 2024 335   Loyola Maryland W 72-65 75%    
  Dec 18, 2024 338   @ LIU Brooklyn W 74-72 58%    
  Dec 21, 2024 38   @ Miami (FL) L 64-85 3%    
  Dec 28, 2024 92   @ George Mason L 62-77 9%    
  Jan 05, 2025 324   Niagara W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 10, 2025 329   @ Manhattan W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 12, 2025 333   Sacred Heart W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 16, 2025 242   @ Rider L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 18, 2025 225   Quinnipiac L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 23, 2025 306   @ Siena L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 329   Manhattan W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 31, 2025 223   @ Merrimack L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 02, 2025 180   @ St. Peter's L 61-69 24%    
  Feb 06, 2025 247   Iona W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 14, 2025 324   @ Niagara L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 16, 2025 351   @ Canisius W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 21, 2025 180   St. Peter's L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 23, 2025 242   Rider W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 28, 2025 271   @ Fairfield L 68-71 39%    
  Mar 02, 2025 306   Siena W 70-65 67%    
  Mar 06, 2025 225   @ Quinnipiac L 70-76 30%    
  Mar 08, 2025 233   Marist W 69-68 52%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.8 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.3 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.9 3.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.9 3.6 0.8 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.2 1.1 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.4 1.6 0.1 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.2 2.0 0.2 9.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.6 2.1 0.3 8.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.5 6.5 8.4 10.3 11.3 11.4 11.2 10.0 7.9 6.1 3.9 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 96.9% 0.5    0.4 0.0 0.0
17-3 87.3% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
16-4 65.6% 1.4    0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
15-5 38.0% 1.5    0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 34.4% 34.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.5% 32.5% 32.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.2% 30.5% 30.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
16-4 2.1% 25.0% 25.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.6
15-5 3.9% 17.7% 17.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.2
14-6 6.1% 13.7% 13.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 5.3
13-7 7.9% 10.8% 10.8% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 7.0
12-8 10.0% 8.4% 8.4% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 9.1
11-9 11.2% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 10.6
10-10 11.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.0
9-11 11.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.1
8-12 10.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 10.1
7-13 8.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.3
6-14 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
5-15 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-16 2.6% 2.6
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.0 94.3 0.0%