Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#258
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#199
Pace68.7#166
Improvement-0.6#217

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#291
First Shot-3.4#278
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#241
Layup/Dunks+0.6#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#232
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#309
Freethrows+1.1#103
Improvement+1.0#135

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#205
First Shot+1.0#143
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#330
Layups/Dunks-0.5#191
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#147
Freethrows-0.5#218
Improvement-1.6#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 8.4% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 98.9% 100.0% 95.8%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 100.0% 91.2%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.2% 3.3% 3.0%
First Round5.8% 6.6% 3.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 73.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 34 - 6
Quad 415 - 819 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 13   @ Maryland L 52-86 2%     0 - 1 -13.5 -11.1 -2.2
  Nov 13, 2024 232   @ Bucknell W 93-89 2OT 35%     1 - 1 +2.7 +4.2 -2.3
  Nov 16, 2024 331   St. Francis (PA) W 66-58 77%     2 - 1 -5.1 -11.9 +7.1
  Nov 20, 2024 73   @ Georgetown L 51-79 8%     2 - 2 -17.7 -14.4 -3.2
  Nov 23, 2024 303   Delaware St. W 76-66 69%     3 - 2 -0.6 +4.5 -4.3
  Nov 30, 2024 305   @ Howard W 79-75 52%     4 - 2 -1.8 -3.6 +1.6
  Dec 06, 2024 223   @ Marist L 50-53 33%     4 - 3 0 - 1 -3.7 -16.0 +12.0
  Dec 08, 2024 328   Fairfield W 101-94 76%     5 - 3 1 - 1 -5.8 +19.7 -25.6
  Dec 14, 2024 325   Loyola Maryland L 69-77 75%     5 - 4 -20.5 -11.3 -9.0
  Dec 18, 2024 323   @ LIU Brooklyn W 80-72 56%     6 - 4 +1.1 +6.7 -5.8
  Dec 21, 2024 152   @ Miami (FL) W 78-74 OT 21%     7 - 4 +7.1 -5.8 +12.6
  Dec 28, 2024 75   @ George Mason L 56-64 8%     7 - 5 +2.1 -5.2 +7.1
  Jan 05, 2025 319   Niagara W 68-62 73%     8 - 5 2 - 1 -5.8 -13.6 +7.6
  Jan 10, 2025 263   @ Manhattan W 75-66 41%     9 - 5 3 - 1 +6.1 +2.3 +4.3
  Jan 12, 2025 274   Sacred Heart W 73-71 63%     10 - 5 4 - 1 -6.9 -3.8 -3.1
  Jan 16, 2025 313   @ Rider L 60-66 54%     10 - 6 4 - 2 -12.5 -19.2 +7.0
  Jan 18, 2025 189   Quinnipiac L 57-91 46%     10 - 7 4 - 3 -38.2 -14.4 -24.7
  Jan 23, 2025 228   @ Siena L 68-82 34%     10 - 8 4 - 4 -15.1 +1.3 -17.6
  Jan 25, 2025 263   Manhattan L 64-74 60%     10 - 9 4 - 5 -18.0 -10.8 -8.0
  Jan 31, 2025 214   @ Merrimack W 66-58 31%     11 - 9 5 - 5 +7.9 +7.8 +1.3
  Feb 02, 2025 292   @ St. Peter's W 79-64 47%     12 - 9 6 - 5 +10.4 +18.1 -5.8
  Feb 06, 2025 259   Iona L 67-70 OT 60%     12 - 10 6 - 6 -10.9 -10.2 -0.5
  Feb 14, 2025 319   @ Niagara W 84-83 55%     13 - 10 7 - 6 -5.7 +6.9 -12.6
  Feb 16, 2025 354   @ Canisius W 73-66 71%     14 - 10 8 - 6 -4.0 -5.0 +1.3
  Feb 21, 2025 292   St. Peter's W 69-58 66%     15 - 10 9 - 6 +1.3 +5.7 -2.7
  Feb 23, 2025 313   Rider W 72-66 73%    
  Feb 28, 2025 328   @ Fairfield W 71-69 57%    
  Mar 02, 2025 228   Siena W 70-69 55%    
  Mar 06, 2025 189   @ Quinnipiac L 70-76 27%    
  Mar 08, 2025 223   Marist W 66-65 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 2.1 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.4 11.6 1.4 18.5 3rd
4th 0.0 6.1 22.5 5.6 0.1 34.3 4th
5th 0.8 13.5 5.2 19.5 5th
6th 0.1 4.4 7.9 0.2 12.6 6th
7th 0.9 6.2 0.9 7.9 7th
8th 1.3 1.4 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.4 12.8 28.5 33.3 18.7 4.4 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 19.3% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 4.4% 14.4% 14.4% 15.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 3.7
13-7 18.7% 11.3% 11.3% 15.7 0.6 1.6 16.6
12-8 33.3% 9.1% 9.1% 15.9 0.3 2.8 30.3
11-9 28.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.1 1.2 27.2
10-10 12.8% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.4 12.4
9-11 2.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 1.4 6.0 92.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 15.0 12.7 73.0 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 1.1%