Akron
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#140
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#232
Pace71.2#120
Improvement-0.7#264

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#191
First Shot+4.5#60
After Offensive Rebound-5.0#359
Layup/Dunks-1.9#246
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+15.5#1
Freethrows-5.0#347
Improvement-0.3#217

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#110
First Shot+6.4#25
After Offensive Rebounds-4.3#345
Layups/Dunks-10.4#362
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#24
Freethrows+8.3#2
Improvement-0.5#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 20.4% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 81.1% 84.5% 60.1%
.500 or above in Conference 88.1% 89.5% 79.3%
Conference Champion 25.1% 26.7% 15.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.6%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round19.1% 20.2% 11.9%
Second Round2.5% 2.8% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 86.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 107   @ Arkansas St. L 75-80 OT 29%     0 - 1 +2.2 -5.4 +8.4
  Nov 12, 2024 43   @ St. Mary's L 68-87 13%     0 - 2 -5.0 -0.5 -4.4
  Nov 22, 2024 290   Lamar W 79-68 86%    
  Nov 23, 2024 259   Nebraska Omaha W 78-68 82%    
  Nov 24, 2024 282   Alabama St. W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 03, 2024 203   Northern Kentucky W 72-65 73%    
  Dec 15, 2024 212   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-74 64%    
  Dec 20, 2024 98   Yale L 70-74 38%    
  Dec 30, 2024 109   @ Princeton L 70-75 31%    
  Jan 03, 2025 262   @ Bowling Green W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 07, 2025 204   Central Michigan W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 300   @ Eastern Michigan W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 14, 2025 137   Toledo W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 158   Ohio W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 21, 2025 331   @ Buffalo W 79-71 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 228   Miami (OH) W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 28, 2025 325   @ Northern Illinois W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 123   @ Kent St. L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 04, 2025 280   Ball St. W 77-66 82%    
  Feb 11, 2025 323   Western Michigan W 80-66 88%    
  Feb 15, 2025 204   @ Central Michigan W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 18, 2025 325   Northern Illinois W 78-64 88%    
  Feb 22, 2025 158   @ Ohio L 74-76 45%    
  Feb 25, 2025 280   @ Ball St. W 74-69 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 123   Kent St. W 70-68 56%    
  Mar 04, 2025 137   @ Toledo L 75-78 39%    
  Mar 07, 2025 331   Buffalo W 82-68 89%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.3 7.3 6.0 3.3 0.9 25.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.5 6.0 2.3 0.3 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.1 4.1 0.9 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.2 5.0 7.5 9.7 12.0 13.1 13.2 12.2 9.7 6.3 3.3 0.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 3.3    3.2 0.1
16-2 94.6% 6.0    5.2 0.8 0.0
15-3 75.5% 7.3    4.8 2.3 0.2
14-4 43.1% 5.3    2.4 2.2 0.7 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.3% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.1% 25.1 16.9 6.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 61.4% 58.9% 2.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 6.0%
17-1 3.3% 50.1% 50.0% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.6 0.3%
16-2 6.3% 43.7% 43.7% 12.6 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.6
15-3 9.7% 33.7% 33.7% 13.1 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.4
14-4 12.2% 28.3% 28.3% 13.5 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 8.7
13-5 13.2% 21.9% 21.9% 14.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 10.3
12-6 13.1% 15.4% 15.4% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 11.1
11-7 12.0% 11.0% 11.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 10.7
10-8 9.7% 7.5% 7.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 9.0
9-9 7.5% 5.6% 5.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.1
8-10 5.0% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 4.9
7-11 3.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.2
6-12 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.4 5.6 5.2 3.0 1.2 80.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 7.3 1.5 3.0 1.5 16.4 6.0 16.4 9.0 10.4 4.5 13.4 13.4 4.5