Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#282
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#226
Pace68.0#224
Improvement+0.1#156

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#313
First Shot-3.3#270
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#273
Layup/Dunks-3.7#296
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#116
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#254
Freethrows+1.8#95
Improvement-0.8#299

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#212
First Shot+1.1#143
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#308
Layups/Dunks+5.2#44
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#274
Freethrows-2.7#315
Improvement+0.9#64
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 17.5% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 50.5% 64.6% 38.6%
.500 or above in Conference 84.7% 89.4% 80.7%
Conference Champion 19.8% 24.8% 15.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four7.8% 8.1% 7.5%
First Round10.2% 13.5% 7.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Neutral) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 415 - 816 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 97   @ UNLV L 79-93 9%     0 - 1 -5.6 +9.3 -15.0
  Nov 10, 2024 48   @ LSU L 61-74 5%     0 - 2 -0.3 -7.6 +7.7
  Nov 22, 2024 262   Nebraska Omaha L 70-71 46%    
  Nov 23, 2024 290   Lamar W 72-71 52%    
  Nov 24, 2024 139   @ Akron L 64-75 16%    
  Nov 27, 2024 18   @ Cincinnati L 58-81 2%    
  Dec 03, 2024 68   @ SMU L 66-83 5%    
  Dec 05, 2024 229   @ Southern Miss L 70-76 30%    
  Dec 11, 2024 302   Tennessee Martin W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 19, 2024 206   Norfolk St. L 66-70 36%    
  Dec 20, 2024 345   Delaware St. W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 30, 2024 61   @ Missouri L 61-79 6%    
  Jan 04, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 73-56 94%    
  Jan 06, 2025 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-69 87%    
  Jan 11, 2025 320   @ Jackson St. L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 13, 2025 350   @ Alcorn St. W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 18, 2025 346   @ Alabama A&M W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 348   Prairie View W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 27, 2025 266   Texas Southern W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 286   @ Bethune-Cookman L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 03, 2025 356   @ Florida A&M W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 235   Grambling St. W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 10, 2025 275   Southern W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 17, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 70-59 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 356   Florida A&M W 74-63 82%    
  Feb 24, 2025 286   Bethune-Cookman W 71-68 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 346   Alabama A&M W 74-65 78%    
  Mar 06, 2025 275   @ Southern L 67-70 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 235   @ Grambling St. L 62-68 32%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.6 5.8 4.5 2.2 0.6 19.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.9 5.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.1 4.3 1.0 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.8 3.6 0.7 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.3 6.3 8.5 11.0 12.6 13.2 12.7 11.0 8.0 4.8 2.2 0.6 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.4% 2.2    2.1 0.1
16-2 94.6% 4.5    3.8 0.7 0.0
15-3 72.9% 5.8    3.7 1.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 41.9% 4.6    1.7 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.8% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.8% 19.8 12.3 5.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 52.8% 52.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-1 2.2% 45.8% 45.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 1.2
16-2 4.8% 36.9% 36.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 3.0
15-3 8.0% 29.3% 29.3% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 5.7
14-4 11.0% 23.2% 23.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 8.4
13-5 12.7% 16.6% 16.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.0 10.6
12-6 13.2% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7 11.5
11-7 12.6% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0 11.6
10-8 11.0% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.7 10.2
9-9 8.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.3 8.2
8-10 6.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 6.2
7-11 4.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.4% 1.4
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 10.6 85.9 0.0%