Belmont
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#133
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#104
Pace76.8#26
Improvement+0.2#172

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#78
First Shot+4.6#59
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#222
Layup/Dunks+0.4#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#108
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#23
Freethrows-3.2#343
Improvement+0.7#126

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#244
First Shot-2.2#251
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#194
Layups/Dunks-0.6#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#279
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#283
Freethrows+2.1#53
Improvement-0.5#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 8.5% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.3 12.7
.500 or above 86.3% 95.1% 84.3%
.500 or above in Conference 70.7% 86.8% 67.2%
Conference Champion 4.9% 14.4% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.5% 1.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.4% 8.5% 4.8%
Second Round0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 17.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 37 - 69 - 11
Quad 410 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 128   Furman L 74-76 60%     0 - 1 -2.9 +1.5 -4.4
  Nov 12, 2024 107   @ Lipscomb W 80-79 30%     1 - 1 +8.2 +12.2 -4.0
  Nov 15, 2024 271   @ Air Force W 79-71 67%     2 - 1 +5.2 +12.5 -6.6
  Nov 19, 2024 294   Oral Roberts W 90-80 86%     3 - 1 -0.1 +1.1 -2.2
  Nov 26, 2024 165   Loyola Marymount L 63-77 58%     3 - 2 -14.5 -11.2 -2.7
  Nov 27, 2024 203   Tulane W 89-66 64%     4 - 2 +21.0 +16.8 +4.7
  Nov 29, 2024 238   Gardner-Webb W 83-74 80%     5 - 2 +1.7 +0.3 +0.8
  Dec 04, 2024 153   Illinois St. W 99-97 OT 67%     6 - 2 1 - 0 -0.8 +10.1 -11.1
  Dec 07, 2024 131   Middle Tennessee W 82-79 61%     7 - 2 +1.7 +6.0 -4.4
  Dec 14, 2024 216   @ Richmond W 93-86 55%     8 - 2 +7.4 +12.7 -5.8
  Dec 19, 2024 60   UC Irvine L 84-92 33%     8 - 3 -1.8 +9.6 -10.6
  Dec 29, 2024 67   @ Drake L 67-77 18%    
  Jan 01, 2025 98   @ Northern Iowa L 75-82 26%    
  Jan 04, 2025 199   Illinois-Chicago W 85-79 72%    
  Jan 08, 2025 168   Southern Illinois W 81-76 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. L 87-89 44%    
  Jan 14, 2025 226   Valparaiso W 86-78 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 290   @ Evansville W 82-76 69%    
  Jan 21, 2025 79   Bradley L 78-80 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 124   @ Murray St. L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 29, 2025 153   @ Illinois St. L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 02, 2025 290   Evansville W 85-73 85%    
  Feb 05, 2025 79   @ Bradley L 75-83 22%    
  Feb 08, 2025 194   Missouri St. W 80-74 71%    
  Feb 12, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso W 83-81 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 168   @ Southern Illinois L 78-79 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 98   Northern Iowa L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 22, 2025 150   Indiana St. W 90-86 65%    
  Feb 26, 2025 194   @ Missouri St. W 78-77 50%    
  Mar 02, 2025 124   Murray St. W 77-75 58%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.4 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.5 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.7 3.4 0.6 0.1 15.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.9 6.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 14.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 4.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.3 8.1 11.0 13.2 14.3 13.7 11.3 8.2 5.6 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 95.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 83.2% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 53.7% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 23.7% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 43.2% 37.8% 5.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7%
18-2 0.4% 27.1% 26.5% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8%
17-3 1.2% 23.4% 23.4% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0
16-4 2.7% 18.4% 18.4% 12.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.2
15-5 5.6% 13.7% 13.7% 12.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.8
14-6 8.2% 11.1% 11.1% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 7.3
13-7 11.3% 8.6% 8.6% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.3
12-8 13.7% 5.7% 5.7% 12.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 13.0
11-9 14.3% 3.1% 3.1% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 13.9
10-10 13.2% 2.6% 2.6% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.9
9-11 11.0% 1.6% 1.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8
8-12 8.1% 0.8% 0.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0
7-13 5.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
6-14 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.9
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 94.6 0.0%