Belmont
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#141
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#123
Pace76.1#45
Improvement-1.0#291

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#114
First Shot+2.1#115
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#165
Layup/Dunks+0.5#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows-2.4#299
Improvement-0.3#234

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#198
First Shot-1.2#223
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#171
Layups/Dunks-1.1#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#317
Freethrows+5.0#8
Improvement-0.7#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 9.3% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 72.0% 81.8% 60.4%
.500 or above in Conference 65.7% 71.9% 58.5%
Conference Champion 8.7% 11.0% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 1.9% 4.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round7.7% 9.3% 5.8%
Second Round1.2% 1.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Neutral) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 68 - 11
Quad 49 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 133   Furman L 74-76 60%     0 - 1 -3.1 -0.1 -3.0
  Nov 12, 2024 152   @ Lipscomb W 80-79 42%     1 - 1 +4.4 +8.3 -3.8
  Nov 15, 2024 292   @ Air Force W 79-71 70%     2 - 1 +4.1 +10.6 -5.7
  Nov 19, 2024 249   Oral Roberts W 90-80 80%     3 - 1 +2.4 +2.2 -0.8
  Nov 26, 2024 154   Loyola Marymount W 74-73 54%    
  Nov 29, 2024 219   Gardner-Webb W 83-76 75%    
  Dec 04, 2024 173   Illinois St. W 76-71 68%    
  Dec 07, 2024 164   Middle Tennessee W 78-73 67%    
  Dec 14, 2024 201   @ Richmond W 74-73 51%    
  Dec 19, 2024 59   UC Irvine L 73-78 34%    
  Dec 29, 2024 106   @ Drake L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 01, 2025 119   @ Northern Iowa L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 04, 2025 156   Illinois-Chicago W 84-80 64%    
  Jan 08, 2025 132   Southern Illinois W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 191   @ Indiana St. L 84-85 49%    
  Jan 14, 2025 276   Valparaiso W 83-73 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 299   @ Evansville W 82-76 69%    
  Jan 21, 2025 95   Bradley L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 111   @ Murray St. L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 29, 2025 173   @ Illinois St. L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 02, 2025 299   Evansville W 85-73 84%    
  Feb 05, 2025 95   @ Bradley L 72-79 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 167   Missouri St. W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 12, 2025 276   @ Valparaiso W 80-76 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 132   @ Southern Illinois L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 119   Northern Iowa W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 191   Indiana St. W 88-82 69%    
  Feb 26, 2025 167   @ Missouri St. L 75-76 46%    
  Mar 02, 2025 111   Murray St. W 75-74 51%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.6 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.2 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 4.9 3.2 0.5 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 3.0 0.7 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 2.7 0.7 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.3 6.3 8.5 10.1 11.7 12.0 11.6 9.9 8.0 5.8 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 98.1% 0.9    0.8 0.1 0.0
17-3 88.8% 1.7    1.3 0.3 0.0
16-4 66.2% 2.4    1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 37.0% 2.1    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 12.7% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 5.0 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 48.1% 41.5% 6.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.3%
18-2 0.9% 39.3% 35.5% 3.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 5.9%
17-3 1.9% 31.2% 30.5% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.3 0.9%
16-4 3.6% 25.8% 25.8% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.7
15-5 5.8% 19.3% 19.3% 12.4 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 4.7
14-6 8.0% 15.3% 15.3% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.8
13-7 9.9% 11.1% 11.1% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.8
12-8 11.6% 7.6% 7.6% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 10.7
11-9 12.0% 4.8% 4.8% 13.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.4
10-10 11.7% 3.3% 3.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.3
9-11 10.1% 2.1% 2.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.9
8-12 8.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.4
7-13 6.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 6.3
6-14 4.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.3
5-15 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.7% 7.6% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 92.3 0.1%