California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#209
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#246
Pace64.6#309
Improvement+0.0#181

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#168
First Shot+0.0#181
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#160
Layup/Dunks+5.5#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#293
Freethrows+0.2#171
Improvement-0.3#226

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#256
First Shot-0.5#198
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#306
Layups/Dunks-2.8#267
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#185
Freethrows+2.9#50
Improvement+0.3#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.9% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 42.3% 49.8% 26.7%
.500 or above in Conference 53.5% 57.1% 45.8%
Conference Champion 6.6% 7.6% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 6.3% 10.2%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round5.8% 6.7% 3.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 67.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 410 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 308   Incarnate Word W 83-78 80%     1 - 0 -6.3 +5.2 -11.3
  Nov 09, 2024 161   Kennesaw St. W 88-84 53%     2 - 0 +0.9 +5.7 -5.0
  Nov 12, 2024 202   UC Riverside L 69-70 61%     2 - 1 -6.0 -3.7 -2.4
  Nov 15, 2024 338   LIU Brooklyn W 90-77 87%     3 - 1 -1.2 +14.3 -15.0
  Nov 20, 2024 148   Northern Colorado L 68-79 50%     3 - 2 -13.2 -9.1 -3.7
  Nov 23, 2024 243   Eastern Washington W 79-74 67%    
  Nov 26, 2024 66   SMU L 70-81 16%    
  Dec 01, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 65-78 11%    
  Dec 11, 2024 63   @ San Diego St. L 59-73 11%    
  Dec 16, 2024 164   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-72 33%    
  Dec 21, 2024 255   @ Fresno St. L 73-74 49%    
  Dec 28, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 76-66 81%    
  Dec 30, 2024 59   UC Irvine L 65-73 23%    
  Jan 04, 2025 135   Seattle L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 136   @ Utah Valley L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 16, 2025 318   @ Tarleton St. W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 214   @ Abilene Christian L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 23, 2025 136   Utah Valley L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 208   @ Southern Utah L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 30, 2025 214   Abilene Christian W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 06, 2025 208   Southern Utah W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 108   Grand Canyon L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 13, 2025 166   @ Texas Arlington L 74-79 34%    
  Feb 15, 2025 304   Utah Tech W 77-68 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 108   @ Grand Canyon L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 27, 2025 135   @ Seattle L 67-74 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 304   @ Utah Tech W 74-71 59%    
  Mar 06, 2025 318   Tarleton St. W 75-65 80%    
  Mar 08, 2025 166   Texas Arlington W 77-76 54%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.8 6.4 2.2 0.2 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.3 6.8 2.1 0.1 15.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 5.4 6.2 1.9 0.1 15.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 5.1 4.8 1.5 0.1 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.1 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.1 9.3 11.9 13.9 14.3 13.0 10.5 7.5 4.6 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-2 94.3% 1.0    0.9 0.1 0.0
13-3 77.8% 1.8    1.2 0.5 0.0
12-4 47.6% 2.2    0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0
11-5 15.1% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1
10-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.3% 45.7% 45.7% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 1.0% 33.7% 33.7% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-3 2.3% 26.3% 26.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7
12-4 4.6% 23.0% 23.0% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.6
11-5 7.5% 16.9% 16.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 6.2
10-6 10.5% 9.1% 9.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 9.5
9-7 13.0% 5.6% 5.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 12.3
8-8 14.3% 3.2% 3.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 13.9
7-9 13.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.7
6-10 11.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.8
5-11 9.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.3
4-12 6.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.1
3-13 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
2-14 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.9 0.9 94.1 0.0%