Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.7#340
Expected Predictive Rating-13.3#329
Pace71.8#102
Improvement+0.6#112

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#339
First Shot-5.1#309
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#237
Layup/Dunks-3.4#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#77
Freethrows-5.5#351
Improvement+0.6#90

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#339
First Shot-6.5#344
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#119
Layups/Dunks+0.5#157
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.7#357
Freethrows-0.9#240
Improvement+0.0#196
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 2.3% 3.9% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 10.9% 14.3% 7.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 30.7% 25.3% 36.4%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 50.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 47 - 117 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 34   @ BYU L 50-88 2%     0 - 1 -23.1 -16.3 -7.5
  Nov 07, 2024 54   @ Utah L 63-98 2%     0 - 2 -22.7 -9.9 -9.5
  Nov 16, 2024 325   @ Western Illinois L 61-63 30%     0 - 3 -8.1 -5.3 -3.1
  Nov 21, 2024 322   Southeast Missouri St. W 76-75 51%    
  Nov 24, 2024 177   UNC Asheville L 71-79 24%    
  Nov 30, 2024 106   @ Georgia Tech L 69-88 4%    
  Dec 04, 2024 247   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 69-79 17%    
  Dec 07, 2024 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-79 56%    
  Dec 14, 2024 27   @ Arkansas L 61-89 1%    
  Dec 16, 2024 309   The Citadel L 69-70 48%    
  Dec 22, 2024 51   @ Oklahoma L 60-84 2%    
  Jan 02, 2025 199   Eastern Kentucky L 72-79 27%    
  Jan 04, 2025 335   Bellarmine W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 09, 2025 326   @ Stetson L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 216   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 62-74 15%    
  Jan 16, 2025 175   @ North Florida L 71-85 12%    
  Jan 18, 2025 226   @ Jacksonville L 63-74 16%    
  Jan 23, 2025 231   Austin Peay L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 25, 2025 151   Lipscomb L 71-80 22%    
  Jan 29, 2025 353   West Georgia W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 187   @ North Alabama L 68-81 12%    
  Feb 05, 2025 299   Queens L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 231   @ Austin Peay L 64-75 16%    
  Feb 13, 2025 226   Jacksonville L 66-71 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 175   North Florida L 74-82 25%    
  Feb 18, 2025 299   @ Queens L 73-80 26%    
  Feb 20, 2025 353   @ West Georgia L 73-74 45%    
  Feb 24, 2025 187   North Alabama L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 26, 2025 151   @ Lipscomb L 68-83 10%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.8 0.1 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 14.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 5.2 7.2 3.8 0.7 0.0 18.7 10th
11th 0.3 2.6 6.7 6.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 20.3 11th
12th 1.5 4.8 6.7 4.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 20.1 12th
Total 1.5 5.1 9.4 13.2 14.7 14.7 13.1 10.1 7.4 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 82.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 54.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 19.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 26.1% 26.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 14.6% 14.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 0.9% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 1.7% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6
10-8 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.9
9-9 4.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.7
8-10 7.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.4
7-11 10.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 10.0
6-12 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
5-13 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.7
4-14 14.7% 14.7
3-15 13.2% 13.2
2-16 9.4% 9.4
1-17 5.1% 5.1
0-18 1.5% 1.5
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%