Colgate
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#215
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#271
Pace65.7#273
Improvement+0.2#169

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#210
First Shot+3.0#93
After Offensive Rebound-4.4#351
Layup/Dunks-3.9#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.9#5
Freethrows-6.0#360
Improvement+2.4#15

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#208
First Shot-3.9#295
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#30
Layups/Dunks+1.1#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#323
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#318
Freethrows+1.6#90
Improvement-2.2#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.5% 26.0% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 52.9% 63.6% 39.3%
.500 or above in Conference 86.7% 89.3% 83.4%
Conference Champion 34.3% 38.7% 28.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.2% 2.3%
First Four8.2% 7.2% 9.6%
First Round20.3% 23.3% 16.5%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cornell (Home) - 56.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 414 - 716 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 167   @ Drexel L 56-73 31%     0 - 1 -14.3 -13.1 -2.2
  Nov 12, 2024 86   @ Syracuse L 72-74 14%     0 - 2 +7.0 +2.4 +4.5
  Nov 18, 2024 67   @ North Carolina St. L 49-72 10%     0 - 3 -11.5 -19.1 +8.2
  Nov 22, 2024 234   @ Harvard L 67-78 44%     0 - 4 -11.9 -1.3 -11.1
  Nov 27, 2024 157   @ UNC Wilmington W 72-59 29%     1 - 4 +16.2 +10.9 +7.5
  Nov 29, 2024 164   Appalachian St. L 50-72 42%     1 - 5 -22.3 -12.0 -14.5
  Nov 30, 2024 129   Sam Houston St. L 78-82 34%     1 - 6 -2.1 +10.2 -12.5
  Dec 04, 2024 179   Cornell W 77-76 56%    
  Dec 08, 2024 170   @ Northeastern L 65-70 32%    
  Dec 11, 2024 7   @ Kentucky L 66-89 2%    
  Dec 15, 2024 161   Vermont W 65-64 53%    
  Dec 22, 2024 248   Iona W 71-66 69%    
  Jan 02, 2025 295   Army W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 05, 2025 254   @ Bucknell L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 08, 2025 287   Lehigh W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 273   Boston University W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 15, 2025 301   @ Navy W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 18, 2025 235   @ Lafayette L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 20, 2025 254   Bucknell W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 250   @ American L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 29, 2025 295   @ Army W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 235   Lafayette W 68-64 66%    
  Feb 03, 2025 287   @ Lehigh W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 333   Loyola Maryland W 73-62 83%    
  Feb 12, 2025 331   @ Holy Cross W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 273   @ Boston University W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 19, 2025 301   Navy W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 333   @ Loyola Maryland W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 26, 2025 331   Holy Cross W 75-65 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 250   American W 69-64 68%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.2 7.2 9.2 7.2 4.6 2.0 0.4 34.3 1st
2nd 0.5 3.6 7.1 5.1 2.2 0.4 0.1 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.0 5.9 3.5 0.7 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 5.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.1 0.2 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.6 5.9 9.2 11.3 12.8 14.3 13.0 11.5 7.6 4.7 2.0 0.4 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 2.0    1.9 0.0
16-2 98.3% 4.6    4.4 0.2
15-3 94.7% 7.2    6.4 0.8 0.0
14-4 80.2% 9.2    6.5 2.5 0.2
13-5 55.2% 7.2    3.6 2.8 0.7 0.0
12-6 22.6% 3.2    0.7 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.3% 34.3 24.1 7.9 2.0 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 62.2% 62.2% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
17-1 2.0% 51.4% 51.4% 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.0
16-2 4.7% 47.5% 47.5% 14.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.4
15-3 7.6% 41.3% 41.3% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.5 4.5
14-4 11.5% 33.3% 33.3% 15.2 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.4 7.7
13-5 13.0% 27.2% 27.2% 15.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 9.5
12-6 14.3% 23.4% 23.4% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.8 10.9
11-7 12.8% 19.6% 19.6% 15.9 0.2 2.3 10.3
10-8 11.3% 16.2% 16.2% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 9.4
9-9 9.2% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 1.2 8.0
8-10 5.9% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.4 5.5
7-11 3.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.2 3.4
6-12 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.0
5-13 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 23.5% 23.5% 0.0% 15.3 0.2 1.2 3.1 6.0 13.1 76.5 0.0%