Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#108
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#199
Pace70.9#130
Improvement-1.3#306

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#106
First Shot-0.6#203
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#44
Layup/Dunks+1.7#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#109
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#322
Freethrows+1.8#88
Improvement-2.1#357

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#128
First Shot-0.7#205
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#52
Layups/Dunks+1.0#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows+0.8#139
Improvement+0.8#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.4% 33.0% 25.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.4
.500 or above 91.2% 93.8% 81.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 93.6% 88.0%
Conference Champion 41.4% 43.8% 32.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 1.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round31.4% 33.0% 25.2%
Second Round5.2% 5.8% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.4% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 79.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 47 - 8
Quad 413 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 274   Cal St. Fullerton W 89-79 88%     1 - 0 +1.2 +8.0 -7.3
  Nov 09, 2024 122   Western Kentucky W 74-72 66%     2 - 0 +1.8 -2.6 +4.3
  Nov 14, 2024 70   Arizona St. L 76-87 35%     2 - 1 -3.0 +2.6 -4.9
  Nov 20, 2024 147   UC Davis L 68-75 72%     2 - 2 -9.1 -7.0 -1.7
  Nov 22, 2024 197   Norfolk St. W 76-67 79%    
  Nov 26, 2024 76   Stanford L 71-75 37%    
  Dec 03, 2024 175   Hawaii W 75-67 77%    
  Dec 14, 2024 54   Georgia L 72-77 32%    
  Dec 16, 2024 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-74 32%    
  Dec 19, 2024 350   Chicago St. W 85-65 96%    
  Dec 22, 2024 100   Saint Louis W 79-77 58%    
  Dec 28, 2024 298   San Diego W 80-69 85%    
  Dec 30, 2024 160   Bryant W 83-76 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 208   Southern Utah W 81-72 80%    
  Jan 09, 2025 136   @ Utah Valley L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 16, 2025 214   Abilene Christian W 78-68 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 318   Tarleton St. W 81-65 92%    
  Jan 23, 2025 208   @ Southern Utah W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 304   @ Utah Tech W 80-71 79%    
  Jan 30, 2025 135   Seattle W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 136   Utah Valley W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 08, 2025 209   @ California Baptist W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 13, 2025 318   @ Tarleton St. W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 15, 2025 166   @ Texas Arlington W 80-79 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 209   California Baptist W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 27, 2025 166   Texas Arlington W 83-76 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 135   @ Seattle L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 06, 2025 304   Utah Tech W 83-68 90%    
  Mar 08, 2025 214   @ Abilene Christian W 75-71 62%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.8 8.2 11.5 10.7 6.0 1.9 41.4 1st
2nd 0.5 3.6 8.3 7.0 2.8 0.5 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.1 3.8 0.7 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.4 2.2 0.3 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 1.3 0.1 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.8 6.3 9.4 12.4 15.0 16.0 14.3 11.2 6.0 1.9 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
15-1 100.0% 6.0    5.9 0.1
14-2 95.8% 10.7    9.6 1.1 0.0
13-3 80.2% 11.5    8.1 3.2 0.2
12-4 51.5% 8.2    3.8 3.5 0.9 0.0
11-5 18.4% 2.8    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
10-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 41.4% 41.4 29.8 9.2 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.9% 71.4% 69.3% 2.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 6.8%
15-1 6.0% 61.1% 60.7% 0.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.3 1.2%
14-2 11.2% 53.2% 53.2% 12.5 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.2
13-3 14.3% 45.4% 45.4% 12.9 0.1 2.1 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.8
12-4 16.0% 35.4% 35.4% 13.3 0.0 0.9 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.3
11-5 15.0% 27.2% 27.2% 13.7 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.1 11.0
10-6 12.4% 19.1% 19.1% 14.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 10.0
9-7 9.4% 12.2% 12.2% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 8.2
8-8 6.3% 7.7% 7.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.8
7-9 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.7
6-10 2.1% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-11 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.0
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 31.4% 31.4% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.7 8.8 10.7 6.8 2.5 0.4 68.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.3 4.2 4.2 18.8 35.4 22.9 10.4 2.1 2.1