Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#211
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#157
Pace70.5#136
Improvement-1.6#278

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#283
First Shot-5.8#337
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#73
Layup/Dunks-2.1#255
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#141
Freethrows-3.2#343
Improvement-2.7#339

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#126
First Shot-0.7#195
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#40
Layups/Dunks-4.1#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#89
Freethrows+0.4#159
Improvement+1.1#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 12.9% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 66.6% 80.7% 58.3%
.500 or above in Conference 83.2% 92.4% 77.8%
Conference Champion 10.3% 20.9% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round9.4% 12.7% 7.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 36.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 413 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 7   @ Florida L 60-81 2%     0 - 1 +1.2 -0.8 +1.1
  Nov 11, 2024 113   @ Furman L 69-78 21%     0 - 2 -3.0 -3.7 +1.1
  Nov 14, 2024 253   South Carolina St. W 71-62 70%     1 - 2 +1.0 -5.3 +6.2
  Nov 20, 2024 138   @ Virginia Tech W 74-64 26%     2 - 2 +14.3 +4.7 +9.8
  Nov 25, 2024 235   Mercer L 89-90 OT 56%     2 - 3 -5.1 +3.6 -8.6
  Nov 26, 2024 304   Siena W 75-64 70%     3 - 3 +3.1 +0.7 +2.6
  Nov 30, 2024 36   @ Georgia L 56-102 6%     3 - 4 -30.9 -8.4 -22.4
  Dec 10, 2024 88   @ Florida Atlantic L 63-85 14%     3 - 5 -12.7 -12.4 +1.4
  Dec 14, 2024 142   East Tennessee St. W 60-52 48%     4 - 5 +5.9 -13.4 +19.4
  Dec 21, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 66-86 12%     4 - 6 -9.8 -3.0 -6.2
  Jan 02, 2025 109   Lipscomb L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 283   Austin Peay W 68-61 75%    
  Jan 09, 2025 345   @ Bellarmine W 75-69 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 230   @ Eastern Kentucky L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 16, 2025 197   North Alabama W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 338   Central Arkansas W 75-63 86%    
  Jan 23, 2025 341   @ West Georgia W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 264   @ Queens W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 29, 2025 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 207   North Florida W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 06, 2025 348   @ Stetson W 75-69 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 345   Bellarmine W 78-66 87%    
  Feb 13, 2025 338   @ Central Arkansas W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 197   @ North Alabama L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 18, 2025 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 20, 2025 207   @ North Florida L 76-79 38%    
  Feb 24, 2025 230   Eastern Kentucky W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 26, 2025 348   Stetson W 78-66 87%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 3.2 2.1 0.7 0.1 10.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.3 4.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.6 6.9 4.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.8 3.8 0.6 0.0 14.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 5.9 3.7 0.5 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.7 7.6 10.9 13.5 15.0 14.5 12.3 8.8 5.1 2.3 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.2% 0.7    0.6 0.1
16-2 88.3% 2.1    1.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 63.0% 3.2    1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 33.0% 2.9    1.0 1.4 0.5 0.0
13-5 9.2% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 5.4 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 40.7% 40.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 30.1% 30.1% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.3% 30.1% 30.1% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.6
15-3 5.1% 22.2% 22.2% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 4.0
14-4 8.8% 19.2% 19.2% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 7.1
13-5 12.3% 14.2% 14.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 10.5
12-6 14.5% 10.9% 10.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 12.9
11-7 15.0% 7.9% 7.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 13.9
10-8 13.5% 5.2% 5.2% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 12.8
9-9 10.9% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.1 0.3 10.5
8-10 7.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.5
7-11 4.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.6
6-12 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 3.9 1.7 90.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 12.0 13.6 77.3 9.1