Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#66
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#180
Pace68.3#212
Improvement-0.9#292

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#84
First Shot-1.1#217
After Offensive Rebound+4.6#17
Layup/Dunks+1.2#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#114
Freethrows-0.9#228
Improvement-1.2#337

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#51
First Shot+6.1#31
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#259
Layups/Dunks+5.1#45
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#303
Freethrows+2.6#59
Improvement+0.3#130
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.5% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 5.7% 6.8% 2.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.9% 25.2% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.3% 24.6% 11.3%
Average Seed 8.0 7.9 8.5
.500 or above 39.4% 45.3% 21.6%
.500 or above in Conference 24.2% 26.7% 16.6%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 15.4% 13.3% 21.8%
First Four3.6% 3.9% 2.4%
First Round20.0% 23.2% 10.5%
Second Round10.8% 12.7% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 4.4% 1.6%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.7% 0.6%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Neutral) - 75.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 12
Quad 23 - 37 - 15
Quad 33 - 110 - 16
Quad 44 - 014 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 358   New Orleans W 89-65 98%     1 - 0 +6.8 +11.9 -4.1
  Nov 09, 2024 219   Cleveland St. W 77-64 90%     2 - 0 +7.1 +3.1 +4.1
  Nov 14, 2024 48   LSU L 65-76 56%     2 - 1 -4.3 -3.3 -1.3
  Nov 19, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 74-56 99%     3 - 1 -5.7 -3.7 -1.0
  Nov 22, 2024 143   George Washington W 79-72 75%    
  Dec 01, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 90-63 99%    
  Dec 07, 2024 16   @ St. John's L 69-78 20%    
  Dec 17, 2024 107   Drake W 73-66 74%    
  Dec 21, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. L 71-72 50%    
  Dec 30, 2024 18   Cincinnati L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 04, 2025 60   @ TCU L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 07, 2025 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 4   Houston L 62-70 24%    
  Jan 14, 2025 14   Texas Tech L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 66-79 12%    
  Jan 22, 2025 11   @ Baylor L 65-76 16%    
  Jan 25, 2025 76   West Virginia W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 86   Oklahoma St. W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 12   @ Iowa St. L 63-74 17%    
  Feb 04, 2025 53   @ Arizona St. L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 6   Kansas L 69-76 25%    
  Feb 11, 2025 13   Arizona L 75-79 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 34   @ BYU L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 17, 2025 54   @ Utah L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 23, 2025 53   Arizona St. W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 71   @ Central Florida L 70-73 41%    
  Mar 02, 2025 70   Colorado W 72-69 61%    
  Mar 05, 2025 18   @ Cincinnati L 66-75 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 12   Iowa St. L 66-71 33%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 3.2 0.8 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.2 0.9 0.0 9.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.7 1.6 0.1 9.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.6 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.4 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 2.2 3.9 2.9 0.7 0.0 10.3 15th
16th 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 9.3 16th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.1 5.3 8.1 10.7 12.4 12.5 12.0 10.1 8.4 6.0 4.2 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 73.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 46.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 22.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.8% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.7% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 2.6% 97.9% 4.4% 93.5% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.8%
12-8 4.2% 94.4% 2.5% 91.9% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 94.3%
11-9 6.0% 80.5% 1.2% 79.3% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.2 80.3%
10-10 8.4% 54.9% 0.6% 54.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.1 3.8 54.7%
9-11 10.1% 21.8% 0.3% 21.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.9 21.5%
8-12 12.0% 5.0% 0.2% 4.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.4 4.9%
7-13 12.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 0.5%
6-14 12.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 12.4 0.0%
5-15 10.7% 10.7
4-16 8.1% 8.1
3-17 5.3% 5.3
2-18 3.1% 3.1
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 21.9% 0.7% 21.2% 8.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.0 2.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 78.1 21.3%