Louisiana
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#306
Expected Predictive Rating-9.7#315
Pace68.8#186
Improvement-2.2#297

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#273
First Shot-2.0#236
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#277
Layup/Dunks-0.9#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#162
Freethrows-2.3#313
Improvement-3.4#340

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#309
First Shot-1.0#204
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#355
Layups/Dunks-1.9#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#45
Freethrows-3.7#354
Improvement+1.2#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 11.7% 14.5% 3.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.8% 3.6% 23.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 73.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 32 - 102 - 15
Quad 46 - 88 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 130   Kent St. L 66-70 24%     0 - 1 -4.8 +0.3 -5.2
  Nov 13, 2024 3   @ Houston L 45-91 1%     0 - 2 -21.7 -15.0 -5.6
  Nov 19, 2024 181   Rice L 61-83 35%     0 - 3 -26.1 -7.8 -20.2
  Nov 22, 2024 72   Liberty L 69-89 8%     0 - 4 -12.7 +7.1 -21.3
  Nov 23, 2024 112   George Washington L 74-83 15%     0 - 5 -5.9 -1.2 -4.2
  Nov 25, 2024 106   UAB L 86-98 14%     0 - 6 -8.2 +10.7 -18.8
  Nov 30, 2024 214   Nicholls St. L 75-76 42%     0 - 7 -7.0 +5.6 -12.7
  Dec 08, 2024 128   Louisiana Tech L 58-69 24%     0 - 8 -11.7 -11.0 -1.5
  Dec 11, 2024 242   SE Louisiana W 68-61 48%     1 - 8 -0.5 -5.0 +4.6
  Dec 14, 2024 203   Lamar L 45-74 39%     1 - 9 -34.0 -21.8 -16.0
  Dec 18, 2024 159   Appalachian St. W 68-62 31%     2 - 9 1 - 0 +3.1 +0.2 +3.3
  Dec 22, 2024 69   McNeese St. L 56-64 12%     2 - 10 -3.4 -7.9 +3.7
  Jan 02, 2025 287   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-68 34%     3 - 10 2 - 0 -0.8 +3.3 -3.9
  Jan 04, 2025 276   @ Georgia St. L 70-94 32%     3 - 11 2 - 1 -27.3 -5.9 -20.5
  Jan 09, 2025 297   Old Dominion L 60-71 60%     3 - 12 2 - 2 -21.5 -12.4 -10.1
  Jan 11, 2025 344   Louisiana Monroe W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 16, 2025 103   @ Arkansas St. L 66-81 8%    
  Jan 18, 2025 344   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 22, 2025 158   Texas St. L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 274   Southern Miss W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 30, 2025 158   @ Texas St. L 66-77 15%    
  Feb 01, 2025 109   South Alabama L 63-72 22%    
  Feb 05, 2025 280   @ Georgia Southern L 74-78 34%    
  Feb 12, 2025 120   Troy L 67-75 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 199   Marshall L 73-76 38%    
  Feb 20, 2025 120   @ Troy L 64-78 10%    
  Feb 22, 2025 274   @ Southern Miss L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 26, 2025 103   Arkansas St. L 69-78 20%    
  Feb 28, 2025 109   @ South Alabama L 60-75 9%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.2 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 3.1 0.8 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 5.3 1.8 0.1 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 6.6 4.5 0.4 13.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 6.3 7.2 1.0 0.0 15.7 10th
11th 0.6 5.2 8.6 2.3 0.1 16.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 4.5 9.0 3.5 0.2 17.5 12th
13th 0.1 2.5 5.8 3.6 0.3 12.3 13th
14th 0.8 1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.9 14th
Total 1.0 4.8 11.9 19.1 20.4 18.3 12.8 6.7 3.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 30.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.4% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
10-8 3.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
9-9 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.7
8-10 12.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.8
7-11 18.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.3
6-12 20.4% 20.4
5-13 19.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.1
4-14 11.9% 11.9
3-15 4.8% 4.8
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%