Louisiana Monroe
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.0#324
Expected Predictive Rating-15.4#347
Pace68.6#202
Improvement+1.0#72

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#342
First Shot-3.0#264
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#337
Layup/Dunks-4.2#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#26
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#138
Freethrows-3.9#335
Improvement+0.0#180

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#259
First Shot-1.0#208
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#278
Layups/Dunks-4.1#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#193
Freethrows+2.0#79
Improvement+1.0#56
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 3.3% 6.4% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 9.0% 12.9% 6.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 39.2% 32.1% 43.3%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Away) - 36.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 47 - 98 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 48   @ LSU L 60-95 3%     0 - 1 -22.3 -9.6 -11.0
  Nov 08, 2024 146   @ Tulane L 64-80 12%     0 - 2 -12.1 -10.3 -1.1
  Nov 12, 2024 171   @ Rice L 50-66 15%     0 - 3 -13.6 -18.6 +4.0
  Nov 18, 2024 271   SE Louisiana L 67-70 49%     0 - 4 -11.7 -9.4 -2.2
  Nov 22, 2024 316   @ Northwestern St. L 68-72 37%    
  Nov 23, 2024 187   North Alabama L 68-76 23%    
  Nov 29, 2024 182   Stephen F. Austin L 62-67 32%    
  Dec 02, 2024 164   Texas Arlington L 73-79 30%    
  Dec 11, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 81-71 83%    
  Dec 14, 2024 164   @ Texas Arlington L 70-82 15%    
  Dec 17, 2024 357   Houston Christian W 76-68 77%    
  Dec 21, 2024 305   Old Dominion W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 02, 2025 214   @ Georgia Southern L 73-82 20%    
  Jan 04, 2025 296   @ Coastal Carolina L 63-68 33%    
  Jan 09, 2025 229   @ Southern Miss L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 11, 2025 244   @ Louisiana L 66-74 25%    
  Jan 15, 2025 124   Troy L 65-74 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 244   Louisiana L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 23, 2025 196   South Alabama L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 25, 2025 200   Appalachian St. L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 30, 2025 196   @ South Alabama L 64-74 19%    
  Feb 01, 2025 124   @ Troy L 62-77 10%    
  Feb 05, 2025 223   @ Georgia St. L 66-75 22%    
  Feb 13, 2025 166   Texas St. L 63-69 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 229   Southern Miss L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 19, 2025 166   @ Texas St. L 60-72 16%    
  Feb 22, 2025 112   @ Arkansas St. L 62-78 8%    
  Feb 25, 2025 128   James Madison L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 28, 2025 112   Arkansas St. L 65-75 20%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 2.4 0.9 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.5 0.6 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.9 1.6 0.1 10.7 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 4.3 6.1 2.8 0.2 14.4 12th
13th 0.3 2.2 6.1 7.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 20.0 13th
14th 2.0 5.9 8.7 7.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 27.3 14th
Total 2.0 6.2 10.9 14.2 15.4 14.3 12.1 9.5 6.4 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 34.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 6.9% 6.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 10.3% 10.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.7% 7.2% 7.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.3% 2.7% 2.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
10-8 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.5
9-9 4.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.1
8-10 6.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 6.3
7-11 9.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.5
6-12 12.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.1
5-13 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.3
4-14 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.4
3-15 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.2
2-16 10.9% 10.9
1-17 6.2% 6.2
0-18 2.0% 2.0
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%