Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#136
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#87
Pace68.9#185
Improvement-1.8#304

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#155
First Shot+0.0#182
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#137
Layup/Dunks+7.6#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#346
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#261
Freethrows-1.1#248
Improvement-0.2#205

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#141
First Shot+2.2#108
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#269
Layups/Dunks-0.1#178
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#74
Freethrows-1.4#273
Improvement-1.6#320
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 10.1% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 68.0% 81.0% 59.6%
.500 or above in Conference 59.8% 67.3% 55.1%
Conference Champion 7.6% 10.1% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 4.2% 7.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round7.9% 10.1% 6.5%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 38.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 38 - 610 - 12
Quad 46 - 217 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 205   @ Abilene Christian W 79-56 52%     1 - 0 +24.1 +5.8 +17.9
  Nov 13, 2024 249   Evansville W 80-63 81%     2 - 0 +9.2 -0.4 +8.7
  Nov 16, 2024 106   Murray St. L 67-88 53%     2 - 1 -20.0 -4.3 -16.4
  Nov 21, 2024 154   Ohio W 83-81 OT 55%     3 - 1 +2.3 -4.2 +6.2
  Nov 22, 2024 133   South Florida W 95-88 49%     4 - 1 +8.8 +22.1 -13.3
  Nov 24, 2024 78   Bradley L 69-80 32%     4 - 2 -4.4 +3.2 -8.5
  Dec 01, 2024 130   @ UAB W 76-69 38%     5 - 2 +11.9 +3.5 +8.5
  Dec 07, 2024 132   @ Belmont L 75-78 39%    
  Dec 16, 2024 184   California Baptist W 73-67 71%    
  Dec 19, 2024 119   Lipscomb W 74-72 57%    
  Dec 23, 2024 4   @ Tennessee L 59-80 3%    
  Jan 02, 2025 245   @ Florida International W 74-71 63%    
  Jan 04, 2025 69   @ Liberty L 62-71 20%    
  Jan 09, 2025 150   Kennesaw St. W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 11, 2025 176   Jacksonville St. W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 113   Western Kentucky W 78-77 55%    
  Jan 23, 2025 129   @ Sam Houston St. L 72-75 38%    
  Jan 25, 2025 101   @ Louisiana Tech L 67-73 30%    
  Jan 30, 2025 211   New Mexico St. W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 159   UTEP W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 176   @ Jacksonville St. L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 150   @ Kennesaw St. L 77-79 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 113   @ Western Kentucky L 75-80 33%    
  Feb 20, 2025 101   Louisiana Tech W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 129   Sam Houston St. W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 27, 2025 211   @ New Mexico St. W 69-68 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 159   @ UTEP L 71-72 45%    
  Mar 06, 2025 69   Liberty L 65-68 38%    
  Mar 08, 2025 245   Florida International W 77-68 80%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.2 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.7 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.4 3.0 6.1 3.5 0.6 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.8 3.3 0.4 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.1 3.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.7 5.0 7.7 10.1 12.6 13.2 12.8 11.6 9.2 6.5 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 98.1% 0.7    0.7 0.1
15-3 82.3% 1.6    1.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 56.5% 2.1    1.1 0.8 0.1
13-5 31.7% 2.1    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-6 9.2% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 4.2 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 46.5% 40.4% 6.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.3%
16-2 0.7% 35.0% 33.7% 1.3% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 2.0%
15-3 1.9% 25.6% 25.4% 0.2% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.4 0.3%
14-4 3.6% 22.6% 22.6% 12.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.8
13-5 6.5% 19.4% 19.4% 12.5 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.1 5.3
12-6 9.2% 13.6% 13.6% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.9
11-7 11.6% 10.8% 10.8% 13.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 10.3
10-8 12.8% 6.7% 6.7% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 12.0
9-9 13.2% 5.7% 5.7% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 12.5
8-10 12.6% 3.7% 3.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.1
7-11 10.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.9
6-12 7.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6
5-13 5.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.0
4-14 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.0 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 92.1 0.0%