Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#260
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#77
Pace71.5#110
Improvement+0.6#114

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#290
First Shot-6.3#331
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#65
Layup/Dunks-5.6#326
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#309
Freethrows+2.5#67
Improvement+0.1#150

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#206
First Shot+3.3#89
After Offensive Rebounds-4.4#346
Layups/Dunks+3.6#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#178
Freethrows+0.2#169
Improvement+0.4#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 10.8% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 54.3% 76.1% 50.1%
.500 or above in Conference 61.2% 74.2% 58.8%
Conference Champion 7.7% 13.2% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 1.9% 4.6%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.1%
First Round6.5% 10.4% 5.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 414 - 716 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 30   @ Maryland L 52-86 4%     0 - 1 -18.1 -11.5 -6.5
  Nov 13, 2024 233   @ Bucknell W 93-89 2OT 33%     1 - 1 +3.4 +4.5 -1.8
  Nov 16, 2024 343   St. Francis (PA) W 66-58 83%     2 - 1 -7.1 -10.3 +3.4
  Nov 20, 2024 126   @ Georgetown L 67-78 16%    
  Nov 23, 2024 345   Delaware St. W 75-65 83%    
  Nov 30, 2024 232   @ Howard L 71-76 33%    
  Dec 06, 2024 234   @ Marist L 67-72 34%    
  Dec 08, 2024 274   Fairfield W 72-68 63%    
  Dec 14, 2024 334   Loyola Maryland W 73-65 78%    
  Dec 18, 2024 337   @ LIU Brooklyn W 75-72 59%    
  Dec 21, 2024 37   @ Miami (FL) L 65-85 4%    
  Dec 28, 2024 96   @ George Mason L 63-77 11%    
  Jan 05, 2025 327   Niagara W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 10, 2025 328   @ Manhattan W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 12, 2025 331   Sacred Heart W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 16, 2025 240   @ Rider L 70-74 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 224   Quinnipiac W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 23, 2025 306   @ Siena L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 328   Manhattan W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 31, 2025 230   @ Merrimack L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 02, 2025 178   @ St. Peter's L 62-69 26%    
  Feb 06, 2025 217   Iona W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 14, 2025 327   @ Niagara W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 16, 2025 351   @ Canisius W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 21, 2025 178   St. Peter's L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 23, 2025 240   Rider W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 28, 2025 274   @ Fairfield L 69-71 42%    
  Mar 02, 2025 306   Siena W 71-65 69%    
  Mar 06, 2025 224   @ Quinnipiac L 71-76 34%    
  Mar 08, 2025 234   Marist W 70-69 55%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 7.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.1 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.8 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.0 3.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.3 3.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.0 3.9 0.9 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.4 7.2 8.8 10.4 11.2 11.4 10.4 9.3 7.4 5.2 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 97.2% 0.8    0.7 0.1
17-3 85.0% 1.5    1.2 0.3 0.0
16-4 62.2% 2.1    1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 35.3% 1.8    0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.2% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 4.5 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 47.4% 47.4% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-2 0.8% 36.5% 36.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
17-3 1.8% 31.7% 31.7% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2
16-4 3.4% 23.8% 23.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.6
15-5 5.2% 19.0% 19.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 4.2
14-6 7.4% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 6.3
13-7 9.3% 11.3% 11.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 8.2
12-8 10.4% 8.4% 8.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 9.6
11-9 11.4% 5.0% 5.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 10.8
10-10 11.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.9
9-11 10.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.2
8-12 8.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.7
7-13 7.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.1
6-14 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.4
5-15 3.4% 3.4
4-16 2.0% 2.0
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 2.4 92.9 0.0%