Rutgers
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#43
Expected Predictive Rating+6.9#81
Pace69.1#185
Improvement-0.6#252

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#63
First Shot+1.4#129
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#41
Layup/Dunks+3.4#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#286
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#246
Freethrows+2.0#74
Improvement+0.4#125

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#31
First Shot+3.3#82
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#33
Layups/Dunks-1.5#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#158
Freethrows+3.6#26
Improvement-0.9#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.6% 1.9% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 8.2% 9.6% 3.5%
Top 6 Seed 18.4% 21.0% 9.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.6% 52.8% 34.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.8% 50.8% 33.4%
Average Seed 7.2 7.1 7.9
.500 or above 73.9% 79.6% 54.6%
.500 or above in Conference 47.2% 50.5% 36.1%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.1% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 5.4% 12.1%
First Four4.6% 4.4% 5.4%
First Round46.4% 50.6% 32.1%
Second Round27.8% 30.9% 17.0%
Sweet Sixteen10.7% 12.2% 5.7%
Elite Eight4.2% 4.8% 2.1%
Final Four1.7% 2.0% 0.8%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 77.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 10
Quad 25 - 310 - 13
Quad 34 - 114 - 13
Quad 44 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 280   Wagner W 75-52 96%     1 - 0 +13.9 +3.7 +10.7
  Nov 11, 2024 180   St. Peter's W 75-65 91%     2 - 0 +6.1 +8.3 -1.4
  Nov 15, 2024 278   Monmouth W 98-81 96%     3 - 0 +8.0 +20.5 -12.6
  Nov 20, 2024 228   Merrimack W 74-63 93%     4 - 0 +4.7 +5.1 +0.1
  Nov 24, 2024 158   @ Kennesaw St. W 85-77 77%    
  Nov 26, 2024 52   Notre Dame W 69-68 55%    
  Nov 27, 2024 8   Alabama L 76-83 25%    
  Dec 07, 2024 20   @ Ohio St. L 66-72 28%    
  Dec 10, 2024 33   Penn St. W 77-76 55%    
  Dec 14, 2024 86   Seton Hall W 65-58 74%    
  Dec 21, 2024 129   Princeton W 75-67 78%    
  Dec 30, 2024 187   Columbia W 83-68 90%    
  Jan 02, 2025 26   @ Indiana L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 06, 2025 37   Wisconsin W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 09, 2025 17   Purdue L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 13, 2025 28   UCLA W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 16, 2025 64   @ Nebraska L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 20, 2025 33   @ Penn St. L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 25, 2025 35   Michigan St. L 70-71 45%    
  Jan 29, 2025 76   @ Northwestern L 66-67 50%    
  Feb 01, 2025 23   Michigan W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 05, 2025 30   Illinois W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 09, 2025 27   @ Maryland L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 12, 2025 38   Iowa W 79-77 57%    
  Feb 16, 2025 39   @ Oregon L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 83   @ Washington W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 23, 2025 79   USC W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 27, 2025 23   @ Michigan L 68-74 32%    
  Mar 04, 2025 17   @ Purdue L 69-76 29%    
  Mar 09, 2025 94   Minnesota W 69-61 74%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.7 0.5 0.1 4.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 4.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.3 2.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.4 1.1 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.3 3.4 2.1 0.2 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.4 1.0 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.3 2.4 0.1 6.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.9 3.7 0.6 0.0 6.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.6 2.0 0.1 6.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 6.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.7 1.3 0.0 6.7 14th
15th 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.2 0.2 6.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.1 16th
17th 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 5.0 17th
18th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 3.8 18th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.6 5.7 7.9 9.9 10.9 11.5 11.3 10.0 9.0 6.5 4.6 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 88.3% 0.6    0.5 0.1
16-4 59.1% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1
15-5 33.9% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1
14-6 9.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 81.5% 18.5% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-3 0.7% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 2.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.7% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 3.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.2% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 4.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.6% 99.7% 13.5% 86.2% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 6.5% 99.3% 8.8% 90.5% 6.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
12-8 9.0% 95.8% 5.7% 90.2% 7.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.2 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.4 95.6%
11-9 10.0% 87.8% 2.1% 85.7% 8.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.4 0.5 1.2 87.6%
10-10 11.3% 73.9% 1.5% 72.4% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.7 0.2 3.0 73.5%
9-11 11.5% 39.0% 1.1% 37.9% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.9 0.3 7.0 38.3%
8-12 10.9% 12.2% 0.4% 11.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 9.5 11.9%
7-13 9.9% 1.9% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 9.8 1.9%
6-14 7.9% 7.9
5-15 5.7% 5.7
4-16 3.6% 3.6
3-17 2.0% 2.0
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 48.6% 3.5% 45.1% 7.2 0.5 1.1 3.0 3.6 4.9 5.4 6.7 6.8 6.1 5.0 5.0 0.6 51.4 46.8%