Samford
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#112
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#89
Pace77.2#22
Improvement-0.2#195

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#49
First Shot+2.8#98
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#46
Layup/Dunks+0.4#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#13
Freethrows-2.6#319
Improvement+0.7#118

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#232
First Shot-1.2#211
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#247
Layups/Dunks-1.7#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#143
Freethrows-1.4#279
Improvement-1.0#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.6% 27.1% 20.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 99.5% 99.6% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 96.5% 92.6%
Conference Champion 38.3% 39.0% 29.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round26.6% 27.1% 20.2%
Second Round3.7% 3.8% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 92.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 37 - 47 - 7
Quad 415 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 120   @ Cornell L 86-88 42%     0 - 1 +3.6 -0.5 +4.3
  Nov 15, 2024 182   @ North Alabama W 97-96 OT 56%     1 - 1 +2.9 +4.8 -2.0
  Nov 17, 2024 306   Texas Southern W 97-82 90%     2 - 1 +4.1 +12.6 -9.6
  Nov 19, 2024 15   @ Michigan St. L 75-83 9%     2 - 2 +10.3 +10.9 -0.6
  Nov 26, 2024 130   North Dakota St. W 103-98 OT 67%     3 - 2 +3.8 +19.0 -15.5
  Nov 27, 2024 148   Utah Valley W 84-76 72%     4 - 2 +5.4 +4.6 +0.0
  Nov 29, 2024 341   West Georgia W 86-65 94%     5 - 2 +6.6 +7.2 -0.3
  Dec 05, 2024 247   @ South Carolina St. W 88-81 69%     6 - 2 +5.2 +17.8 -12.4
  Dec 08, 2024 273   Austin Peay W 72-47 88%     7 - 2 +15.9 +3.4 +14.5
  Dec 18, 2024 17   @ Arizona L 64-96 9%     7 - 3 -13.8 -1.1 -12.1
  Dec 21, 2024 361   @ Alabama A&M W 91-75 93%    
  Jan 01, 2025 355   The Citadel W 86-67 96%    
  Jan 04, 2025 311   @ Western Carolina W 86-77 79%    
  Jan 09, 2025 347   VMI W 91-72 96%    
  Jan 11, 2025 157   UNC Greensboro W 78-72 73%    
  Jan 15, 2025 239   @ Mercer W 85-80 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 132   East Tennessee St. W 82-77 67%    
  Jan 22, 2025 183   @ Chattanooga W 82-81 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 155   Wofford W 81-75 73%    
  Jan 29, 2025 128   @ Furman L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 355   @ The Citadel W 83-70 88%    
  Feb 05, 2025 239   Mercer W 88-77 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 132   @ East Tennessee St. L 79-80 45%    
  Feb 12, 2025 183   Chattanooga W 85-78 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 155   @ Wofford W 79-78 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 128   Furman W 79-75 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 311   Western Carolina W 89-74 90%    
  Feb 27, 2025 347   @ VMI W 88-75 87%    
  Mar 01, 2025 157   @ UNC Greensboro W 76-75 52%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.1 9.7 11.2 8.2 3.7 0.8 38.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.6 8.9 6.1 1.7 0.2 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.8 3.5 0.5 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.8 2.3 0.2 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.3 1.5 0.1 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.9 0.1 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.4 7.8 10.8 14.4 16.6 16.4 13.0 8.4 3.7 0.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.7    3.7 0.0
16-2 98.0% 8.2    7.6 0.6 0.0
15-3 86.5% 11.2    8.5 2.6 0.1
14-4 59.4% 9.7    4.8 4.2 0.8 0.0
13-5 24.5% 4.1    0.9 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.3% 38.3 26.3 9.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 51.2% 50.7% 0.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.0%
17-1 3.7% 50.9% 50.8% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 1.8 0.2%
16-2 8.4% 44.8% 44.8% 12.3 0.2 2.4 1.1 0.1 4.6
15-3 13.0% 38.7% 38.7% 12.6 0.0 2.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.0
14-4 16.4% 31.4% 31.4% 12.9 0.0 1.3 3.0 0.8 0.0 11.2
13-5 16.6% 25.0% 25.0% 13.3 0.5 2.2 1.3 0.1 12.4
12-6 14.4% 19.7% 19.7% 13.5 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.6
11-7 10.8% 15.9% 15.9% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 9.1
10-8 7.8% 12.8% 12.8% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 6.8
9-9 4.4% 10.3% 10.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.0
8-10 2.3% 6.6% 6.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
7-11 1.0% 3.8% 3.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-12 0.4% 5.0% 5.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 5.3% 5.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.6% 26.6% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 8.1 10.9 5.5 1.1 0.1 73.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.3 0.5 3.8 4.3 7.6 9.5 11.9 43.8 18.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 2.5% 11.0 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%