Samford
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#127
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#152
Pace80.2#10
Improvement+1.0#84

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#76
First Shot+1.2#134
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#58
Layup/Dunks+0.5#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#54
Freethrows-2.0#281
Improvement+1.9#14

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#217
First Shot+0.4#160
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#293
Layups/Dunks-3.1#276
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#13
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#110
Freethrows-1.9#280
Improvement-0.9#293
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 25.5% 17.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.9
.500 or above 92.6% 94.8% 82.8%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 92.4% 85.7%
Conference Champion 33.3% 35.3% 24.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.7%
First Round23.9% 25.4% 17.3%
Second Round2.9% 3.2% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 45 - 7
Quad 416 - 321 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 170   @ Cornell L 86-88 50%     0 - 1 +0.4 -1.9 +2.7
  Nov 15, 2024 186   @ North Alabama W 97-96 OT 53%     1 - 1 +2.7 +3.4 -0.9
  Nov 17, 2024 261   Texas Southern W 97-82 84%     2 - 1 +6.7 +14.2 -8.5
  Nov 19, 2024 35   @ Michigan St. L 75-83 13%     2 - 2 +6.8 +10.2 -3.2
  Nov 26, 2024 241   North Dakota St. W 84-75 81%    
  Nov 27, 2024 136   Utah Valley W 80-76 63%    
  Nov 29, 2024 353   West Georgia W 90-71 96%    
  Dec 05, 2024 314   @ South Carolina St. W 84-76 77%    
  Dec 08, 2024 238   Austin Peay W 81-72 81%    
  Dec 18, 2024 13   @ Arizona L 79-95 7%    
  Dec 21, 2024 345   @ Alabama A&M W 86-74 85%    
  Jan 01, 2025 317   The Citadel W 83-69 90%    
  Jan 04, 2025 258   @ Western Carolina W 79-75 65%    
  Jan 09, 2025 344   VMI W 93-75 95%    
  Jan 11, 2025 171   UNC Greensboro W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 15, 2025 252   @ Mercer W 82-78 64%    
  Jan 18, 2025 188   East Tennessee St. W 84-77 72%    
  Jan 22, 2025 169   @ Chattanooga L 80-81 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 206   Wofford W 82-74 75%    
  Jan 29, 2025 133   @ Furman L 81-83 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 317   @ The Citadel W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 05, 2025 252   Mercer W 85-75 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 188   @ East Tennessee St. W 81-80 53%    
  Feb 12, 2025 169   Chattanooga W 84-78 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 206   @ Wofford W 79-77 55%    
  Feb 19, 2025 133   Furman W 84-80 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 258   Western Carolina W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 27, 2025 344   @ VMI W 90-78 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 171   @ UNC Greensboro L 76-77 49%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 3.8 8.1 9.1 7.0 3.4 1.0 33.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.2 7.6 5.3 1.8 0.2 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.0 5.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.9 4.5 1.5 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 3.0 3.1 0.9 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.2 6.7 8.9 11.8 13.3 14.3 13.7 10.9 7.2 3.4 1.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 100.0% 3.4    3.3 0.0
16-2 97.3% 7.0    6.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 83.6% 9.1    6.9 2.1 0.1
14-4 58.6% 8.1    4.3 3.1 0.5 0.0
13-5 26.9% 3.8    1.2 1.7 0.8 0.1
12-6 6.5% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.3% 33.3 23.2 7.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 64.0% 62.9% 1.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 2.8%
17-1 3.4% 50.8% 50.7% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.7 0.3%
16-2 7.2% 46.3% 46.3% 12.5 0.2 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.9
15-3 10.9% 38.8% 38.8% 13.0 0.0 1.1 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.7
14-4 13.7% 31.8% 31.8% 13.4 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.4
13-5 14.3% 25.5% 25.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.0 10.7
12-6 13.3% 18.9% 18.9% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.1 10.8
11-7 11.8% 14.6% 14.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 10.1
10-8 8.9% 10.9% 10.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 7.9
9-9 6.7% 7.7% 7.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 6.2
8-10 4.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.9
7-11 2.5% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.4
6-12 1.3% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-13 0.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.5 7.7 6.7 3.4 0.9 76.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.3 18.2 13.6 18.2 4.5 4.5 18.2 4.5 13.6 4.5