South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#202
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#205
Pace63.0#325
Improvement-0.9#247

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#204
First Shot+0.3#170
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#271
Layup/Dunks+1.6#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#127
Freethrows-0.3#193
Improvement+0.5#140

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#187
First Shot-1.4#220
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#114
Layups/Dunks+10.9#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-18.2#364
Freethrows+2.2#49
Improvement-1.4#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 7.0% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 74.7% 86.0% 66.4%
.500 or above in Conference 67.5% 80.7% 57.7%
Conference Champion 5.6% 10.2% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.6% 3.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round5.0% 7.0% 3.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Home) - 42.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 225   Central Michigan L 70-74 67%     0 - 1 -10.3 -1.8 -8.7
  Nov 08, 2024 241   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 49%     1 - 1 +4.5 +2.9 +2.1
  Nov 12, 2024 27   @ Mississippi L 54-64 6%     1 - 2 +6.3 -8.2 +13.8
  Nov 16, 2024 239   Mercer W 75-66 70%     2 - 2 +1.7 -0.2 +2.1
  Nov 25, 2024 304   Incarnate Word W 84-63 80%     3 - 2 +10.3 +9.1 +2.7
  Nov 26, 2024 331   Western Illinois L 63-64 85%     3 - 3 -14.0 -5.7 -8.5
  Nov 29, 2024 342   Alcorn St. W 74-65 OT 88%     4 - 3 -5.4 -0.9 -3.9
  Dec 08, 2024 167   Jacksonville St. W 76-74 57%     5 - 3 -1.6 +5.1 -6.6
  Dec 15, 2024 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-72 77%     6 - 3 -0.6 +7.9 -8.2
  Dec 16, 2024 88   @ TCU L 49-58 15%     6 - 4 +0.4 -7.9 +6.9
  Dec 21, 2024 115   James Madison L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 02, 2025 263   @ Georgia St. W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 234   @ Georgia Southern L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 09, 2025 109   Arkansas St. L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 315   Old Dominion W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 15, 2025 283   Southern Miss W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 18, 2025 125   Troy L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 23, 2025 329   @ Louisiana Monroe W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 125   @ Troy L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 30, 2025 329   Louisiana Monroe W 72-61 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 291   @ Louisiana W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 05, 2025 268   @ Coastal Carolina W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 13, 2025 190   Marshall W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 139   Texas St. W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 19, 2025 109   @ Arkansas St. L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 139   @ Texas St. L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 283   @ Southern Miss W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 28, 2025 291   Louisiana W 74-66 76%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 4.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.9 4.3 0.8 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.0 5.4 1.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.6 5.8 2.1 0.1 10.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.6 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.0 0.8 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.4 1.1 0.1 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.4 5.8 9.0 11.9 14.4 14.5 13.1 10.9 7.3 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 93.8% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 77.9% 1.6    1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 44.1% 1.9    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.3% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 2.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 31.3% 31.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.7% 32.3% 32.3% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5
15-3 2.0% 17.9% 17.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
14-4 4.3% 15.2% 15.2% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.7
13-5 7.3% 11.7% 11.7% 14.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.4
12-6 10.9% 8.6% 8.6% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 10.0
11-7 13.1% 6.1% 6.1% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 12.3
10-8 14.5% 3.7% 3.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 14.0
9-9 14.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 14.0
8-10 11.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.7
7-11 9.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 8.9
6-12 5.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.8
5-13 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 1.7% 1.7
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.8 0.5 94.9 0.0%