Stonehill
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.3#343
Expected Predictive Rating-15.2#345
Pace69.6#171
Improvement+0.4#132

Offense
Total Offense-8.8#357
First Shot-4.0#287
After Offensive Rebound-4.8#357
Layup/Dunks-8.1#357
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#49
Freethrows+0.1#188
Improvement+0.6#98

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#289
First Shot-1.9#244
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#283
Layups/Dunks-0.5#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
Freethrows-2.6#307
Improvement-0.2#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 7.5% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 12.3% 24.4% 9.5%
.500 or above in Conference 45.0% 55.6% 42.6%
Conference Champion 5.2% 7.5% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 15.9% 11.0% 17.1%
First Four5.4% 7.3% 4.9%
First Round1.9% 3.0% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bryant (Home) - 18.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 410 - 1311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 53   @ Notre Dame L 60-89 2%     0 - 1 -16.7 -4.3 -13.3
  Nov 09, 2024 77   @ Providence L 49-76 3%     0 - 2 -16.6 -17.7 +1.9
  Nov 14, 2024 288   @ Robert Morris L 51-63 20%     0 - 3 -15.4 -20.4 +4.7
  Nov 15, 2024 357   New Orleans W 80-54 58%     1 - 3 +11.8 -0.7 +12.1
  Nov 17, 2024 355   Lindenwood L 74-75 57%     1 - 4 -14.9 -2.9 -12.1
  Nov 21, 2024 160   Bryant L 71-80 19%    
  Nov 25, 2024 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 70-66 63%    
  Nov 27, 2024 15   @ Marquette L 55-85 0.3%   
  Dec 01, 2024 225   Quinnipiac L 68-74 28%    
  Dec 15, 2024 138   @ Boston College L 60-77 6%    
  Dec 18, 2024 155   @ Umass Lowell L 64-80 8%    
  Dec 22, 2024 341   New Hampshire W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 29, 2024 240   @ Lafayette L 60-71 15%    
  Jan 03, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst L 63-64 47%    
  Jan 05, 2025 342   @ St. Francis (PA) L 68-71 39%    
  Jan 10, 2025 338   LIU Brooklyn W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 12, 2025 350   @ Chicago St. L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 20, 2025 337   @ Le Moyne L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 24, 2025 350   Chicago St. W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 26, 2025 347   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-75 62%    
  Jan 30, 2025 281   Wagner L 57-60 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 254   Central Connecticut St. L 65-69 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 338   @ LIU Brooklyn L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 13, 2025 342   St. Francis (PA) W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 66-61 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 281   @ Wagner L 54-63 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 254   @ Central Connecticut St. L 62-72 18%    
  Feb 27, 2025 347   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 75-78 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 337   Le Moyne W 70-68 55%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.0 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 4.8 4.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.9 4.5 1.1 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.8 5.0 1.0 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 5.3 5.4 1.1 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.9 5.6 1.2 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 4.4 1.1 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 9.6 9th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.9 8.0 11.2 13.3 13.9 13.4 11.3 8.8 5.8 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 95.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
13-3 80.3% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
12-4 50.2% 1.7    0.9 0.7 0.1
11-5 20.4% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
10-6 3.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 42.1% 42.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
14-2 0.6% 24.8% 24.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
13-3 1.6% 25.8% 25.8% 16.0 0.4 1.2
12-4 3.4% 20.0% 20.0% 16.0 0.7 2.7
11-5 5.8% 13.5% 13.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8 5.0
10-6 8.8% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.9 7.9
9-7 11.3% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.7 10.5
8-8 13.4% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.7 12.7
7-9 13.9% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.5 13.4
6-10 13.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 13.0
5-11 11.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.1
4-12 8.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 8.0
3-13 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.9
2-14 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
1-15 0.9% 0.9
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 94.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%