Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#166
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#262
Pace66.3#272
Improvement-1.9#340

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#252
First Shot-2.1#239
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#211
Layup/Dunks-0.3#196
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#170
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.3#348
Freethrows+5.5#11
Improvement-0.2#199

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#104
First Shot-3.1#280
After Offensive Rebounds+5.3#7
Layups/Dunks-6.0#342
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#60
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement-1.7#343
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 11.9% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 14.0
.500 or above 55.2% 73.3% 48.1%
.500 or above in Conference 68.3% 77.8% 64.6%
Conference Champion 9.7% 14.2% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.4% 3.1%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round8.2% 11.8% 6.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Neutral) - 28.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 410 - 414 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 301   Eastern Michigan W 64-44 83%     1 - 0 +9.5 -7.0 +18.4
  Nov 12, 2024 60   @ TCU L 71-76 13%     1 - 1 +6.8 +2.1 +4.9
  Nov 16, 2024 209   @ Abilene Christian L 60-72 46%     1 - 2 -11.4 -10.3 -1.2
  Nov 21, 2024 93   Bradley L 64-70 28%    
  Dec 01, 2024 266   @ Texas Southern W 68-66 57%    
  Dec 08, 2024 171   Rice W 68-65 62%    
  Dec 14, 2024 75   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-79 16%    
  Dec 21, 2024 214   Georgia Southern W 78-73 69%    
  Dec 29, 2024 164   Texas Arlington W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 02, 2025 195   @ Marshall L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 04, 2025 200   @ Appalachian St. L 64-65 45%    
  Jan 09, 2025 124   @ Troy L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 11, 2025 229   @ Southern Miss L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 15, 2025 223   Georgia St. W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 229   Southern Miss W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 22, 2025 244   @ Louisiana W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 112   @ Arkansas St. L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 30, 2025 244   Louisiana W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 112   Arkansas St. L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 05, 2025 305   @ Old Dominion W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 13, 2025 324   @ Louisiana Monroe W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 196   @ South Alabama L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 324   Louisiana Monroe W 72-60 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 196   South Alabama W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 25, 2025 124   Troy L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 28, 2025 128   James Madison W 71-70 51%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 2.9 1.8 0.7 0.1 9.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.0 2.9 0.9 0.1 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 4.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.5 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.2 4.0 0.7 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.3 3.2 4.4 1.1 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.4 1.9 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.1 0.9 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.8 5.8 8.3 10.1 11.6 12.4 12.2 10.7 8.8 6.1 3.8 2.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 94.1% 1.8    1.5 0.3 0.0
15-3 75.9% 2.9    1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 43.1% 2.6    1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.8% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 5.5 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 53.1% 51.0% 2.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.2%
17-1 0.7% 39.3% 39.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.0% 31.6% 31.5% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.2%
15-3 3.8% 26.8% 26.8% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8
14-4 6.1% 22.9% 22.9% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.7
13-5 8.8% 16.9% 16.9% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 7.3
12-6 10.7% 12.3% 12.3% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 9.4
11-7 12.2% 8.0% 8.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 11.2
10-8 12.4% 4.7% 4.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 11.8
9-9 11.6% 2.6% 2.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.3
8-10 10.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.9
7-11 8.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.2
6-12 5.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.7
5-13 3.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.7
4-14 2.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 2.4 1.7 0.6 91.6 0.0%