Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#139
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#125
Pace64.8#283
Improvement+0.3#157

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#137
First Shot+1.6#127
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#204
Layup/Dunks+5.7#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#139
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#353
Freethrows+2.5#52
Improvement+2.6#30

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#170
First Shot+0.0#171
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#199
Layups/Dunks-1.3#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#209
Freethrows-0.8#246
Improvement-2.2#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 13.9% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 88.1% 91.8% 75.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 90.9% 73.6%
Conference Champion 16.5% 19.2% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 1.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round12.7% 13.9% 8.8%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 77.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 56 - 9
Quad 412 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 317   Eastern Michigan W 64-44 88%     1 - 0 +8.2 -8.9 +19.0
  Nov 12, 2024 88   @ TCU L 71-76 21%     1 - 1 +4.4 +3.3 +1.4
  Nov 16, 2024 207   @ Abilene Christian L 60-72 51%     1 - 2 -11.1 -11.1 -0.2
  Nov 21, 2024 79   Bradley L 68-82 28%     1 - 3 -6.9 -0.8 -6.5
  Nov 22, 2024 117   Princeton W 83-80 44%     2 - 3 +5.8 +15.0 -9.0
  Nov 24, 2024 149   Ohio W 74-65 53%     3 - 3 +9.4 +8.1 +2.3
  Dec 01, 2024 306   @ Texas Southern W 72-59 72%     4 - 3 +8.1 +3.1 +5.9
  Dec 08, 2024 196   Rice W 75-66 71%     5 - 3 +4.4 +12.3 -6.5
  Dec 14, 2024 85   @ Florida Atlantic L 80-89 21%     5 - 4 +0.5 +9.2 -8.7
  Dec 21, 2024 234   Georgia Southern W 78-70 77%    
  Dec 29, 2024 145   Texas Arlington W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 02, 2025 190   @ Marshall L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 173   @ Appalachian St. L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 09, 2025 125   @ Troy L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 283   @ Southern Miss W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 15, 2025 263   Georgia St. W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 283   Southern Miss W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 22, 2025 291   @ Louisiana W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 109   @ Arkansas St. L 69-75 31%    
  Jan 30, 2025 291   Louisiana W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 109   Arkansas St. W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 05, 2025 315   @ Old Dominion W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 13, 2025 329   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 202   @ South Alabama L 67-68 50%    
  Feb 19, 2025 329   Louisiana Monroe W 76-62 90%    
  Feb 22, 2025 202   South Alabama W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 25, 2025 125   Troy W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 28, 2025 115   James Madison W 72-71 53%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.6 5.0 3.3 1.1 0.2 16.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.3 4.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.5 6.6 4.7 1.1 0.1 15.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.8 4.7 0.8 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.5 1.1 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.4 1.2 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.6 1.5 0.1 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.3 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.3 9.2 12.4 14.4 15.5 13.8 10.4 6.4 3.5 1.1 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.8% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 95.0% 3.3    2.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 77.7% 5.0    3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 43.6% 4.6    1.8 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.3% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.5% 16.5 9.5 4.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 43.0% 43.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 36.5% 36.5% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.5% 32.8% 32.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 2.3
15-3 6.4% 27.3% 27.3% 12.8 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.6
14-4 10.4% 21.6% 21.6% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 8.2
13-5 13.8% 18.2% 18.2% 13.5 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 11.3
12-6 15.5% 13.6% 13.6% 13.7 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 13.4
11-7 14.4% 8.3% 8.3% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 13.2
10-8 12.4% 4.8% 4.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.8
9-9 9.2% 4.2% 4.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.8
8-10 6.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
7-11 3.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.6
6-12 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.9 4.0 1.3 0.1 87.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.0 7.7 5.1 12.8 30.8 43.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%