Towson
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#134
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#129
Pace61.1#353
Improvement-0.8#282

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#188
First Shot-6.3#330
After Offensive Rebound+5.8#8
Layup/Dunks-2.3#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#225
Freethrows-2.2#289
Improvement+0.1#155

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#107
First Shot-1.0#209
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#29
Layups/Dunks-3.1#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#152
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#131
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement-0.9#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 17.0% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 78.5% 86.4% 68.3%
.500 or above in Conference 84.0% 87.7% 79.2%
Conference Champion 19.0% 22.7% 14.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.6% 1.3%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round14.3% 16.9% 10.8%
Second Round2.0% 2.6% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Away) - 56.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 57 - 10
Quad 412 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 44   @ St. Mary's L 69-76 13%     0 - 1 +6.9 +5.9 +0.5
  Nov 12, 2024 72   @ South Carolina L 54-80 20%     0 - 2 -15.2 -12.3 -3.3
  Nov 16, 2024 128   James Madison W 67-63 59%     1 - 2 +3.3 -1.2 +4.8
  Nov 20, 2024 220   @ Nicholls St. W 66-64 57%    
  Nov 24, 2024 333   @ Morgan St. W 75-66 80%    
  Nov 28, 2024 123   Kent St. L 64-65 46%    
  Nov 29, 2024 160   Kennesaw St. W 75-73 56%    
  Nov 30, 2024 57   UC Irvine L 61-68 25%    
  Dec 07, 2024 311   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 79-66 88%    
  Dec 14, 2024 207   Duquesne W 66-62 64%    
  Dec 17, 2024 288   @ Robert Morris W 67-62 68%    
  Dec 22, 2024 159   Bryant W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 02, 2025 150   @ UNC Wilmington L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 04, 2025 116   @ College of Charleston L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 09, 2025 148   Northeastern W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 11, 2025 144   @ Drexel L 61-63 42%    
  Jan 16, 2025 131   Hofstra W 65-62 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 285   Stony Brook W 72-61 83%    
  Jan 23, 2025 272   N.C. A&T W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 27, 2025 148   @ Northeastern L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 30, 2025 213   @ Delaware W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 144   Drexel W 64-60 63%    
  Feb 06, 2025 285   @ Stony Brook W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 261   @ Monmouth W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 13, 2025 213   Delaware W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 261   Monmouth W 73-63 80%    
  Feb 20, 2025 263   @ Elon W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 257   @ Campbell W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 27, 2025 208   William & Mary W 75-68 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 310   Hampton W 69-56 87%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.6 5.6 4.1 1.9 0.5 19.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.5 4.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 5.6 4.1 1.0 0.1 13.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.9 3.9 0.8 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.0 4.0 1.0 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.1 1.2 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.5 1.5 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.9 0.2 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.3 6.4 9.0 11.5 12.7 13.4 12.5 10.4 7.6 4.4 2.0 0.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.1% 1.9    1.9 0.1
16-2 93.1% 4.1    3.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 73.7% 5.6    3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 43.9% 4.6    1.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.7% 2.0    0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 11.6 5.3 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 59.6% 53.2% 6.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13.6%
17-1 2.0% 46.2% 45.8% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.7%
16-2 4.4% 39.9% 39.8% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.7 0.2%
15-3 7.6% 29.6% 29.6% 12.6 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.3
14-4 10.4% 25.2% 25.2% 12.9 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 7.8
13-5 12.5% 18.4% 18.4% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 10.2
12-6 13.4% 14.2% 14.2% 13.7 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 11.5
11-7 12.7% 8.7% 8.7% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 11.6
10-8 11.5% 5.2% 5.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.9
9-9 9.0% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.6
8-10 6.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.2
7-11 4.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 2.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.9 4.8 3.3 1.3 0.3 85.7 0.0%