Troy
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#124
Expected Predictive Rating+5.8#94
Pace72.7#87
Improvement-2.2#350

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#185
First Shot-5.2#311
After Offensive Rebound+4.9#13
Layup/Dunks+4.7#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#342
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#338
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement-0.5#266

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#86
First Shot+2.2#109
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#133
Layups/Dunks-3.8#296
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#181
Freethrows+3.6#34
Improvement-1.7#340
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 18.4% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 89.1% 91.3% 74.9%
.500 or above in Conference 87.1% 88.4% 78.9%
Conference Champion 20.8% 21.9% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round17.6% 18.4% 12.6%
Second Round2.6% 2.8% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Home) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 413 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 138   Toledo W 84-74 66%     1 - 0 +8.5 +2.6 +5.3
  Nov 09, 2024 358   @ New Orleans W 78-61 90%     2 - 0 +5.8 -6.4 +10.8
  Nov 13, 2024 27   @ Arkansas L 49-65 11%     2 - 1 +0.4 -13.8 +13.8
  Nov 17, 2024 40   @ Oregon L 61-82 14%     2 - 2 -6.6 -7.5 +1.9
  Nov 19, 2024 353   @ West Georgia W 84-65 88%     3 - 2 +8.8 +13.8 -3.2
  Nov 25, 2024 278   Texas San Antonio W 83-71 87%    
  Nov 29, 2024 230   Merrimack W 71-62 80%    
  Dec 01, 2024 199   Eastern Kentucky W 79-71 76%    
  Dec 10, 2024 4   @ Houston L 57-77 3%    
  Dec 21, 2024 223   @ Georgia St. W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 02, 2025 200   @ Appalachian St. W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 04, 2025 195   @ Marshall W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 09, 2025 166   Texas St. W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 112   Arkansas St. W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 15, 2025 324   @ Louisiana Monroe W 74-65 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 196   @ South Alabama W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 23, 2025 229   Southern Miss W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 196   South Alabama W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 30, 2025 214   Georgia Southern W 85-77 77%    
  Feb 01, 2025 324   Louisiana Monroe W 77-62 90%    
  Feb 05, 2025 128   @ James Madison L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 12, 2025 244   @ Louisiana W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 112   @ Arkansas St. L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 20, 2025 244   Louisiana W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 296   Coastal Carolina W 74-61 87%    
  Feb 25, 2025 166   @ Texas St. W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 28, 2025 229   @ Southern Miss W 77-74 60%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.0 6.2 4.4 2.1 0.5 20.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.2 5.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 5.9 4.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 5.1 4.1 0.8 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.0 0.9 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.9 1.1 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.4 1.6 0.1 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.8 0.2 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.5 5.6 8.6 11.0 12.9 14.0 13.6 11.4 8.3 4.7 2.1 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.9% 2.1    2.0 0.1
16-2 93.6% 4.4    3.7 0.7 0.0
15-3 74.6% 6.2    4.1 1.9 0.2
14-4 44.0% 5.0    2.1 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.2% 2.2    0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.8% 20.8 12.8 5.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 59.4% 56.7% 2.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6.2%
17-1 2.1% 47.7% 46.5% 1.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 2.2%
16-2 4.7% 39.4% 39.2% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.9 0.4%
15-3 8.3% 35.0% 35.0% 12.5 0.1 1.5 1.2 0.2 5.4
14-4 11.4% 28.4% 28.4% 12.9 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 8.2
13-5 13.6% 21.8% 21.8% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 10.7
12-6 14.0% 16.8% 16.8% 13.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 11.6
11-7 12.9% 11.7% 11.7% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.4
10-8 11.0% 7.1% 7.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 10.2
9-9 8.6% 5.2% 5.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.1
8-10 5.6% 3.4% 3.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.4
7-11 3.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-12 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.6% 17.6% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 5.0 6.7 3.9 1.0 0.1 82.4 0.1%