Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#32
Expected Predictive Rating+14.8#29
Pace73.8#81
Improvement+0.2#177

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#59
First Shot+4.6#64
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#121
Layup/Dunks+11.1#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#237
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#316
Freethrows-0.5#216
Improvement-0.8#251

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#16
First Shot+8.7#11
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#258
Layups/Dunks+5.8#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#249
Freethrows+1.7#82
Improvement+1.0#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.7% 6.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 22.0% 22.1% 4.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.8% 70.8% 45.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.3% 69.3% 44.4%
Average Seed 7.6 7.6 9.0
.500 or above 99.7% 99.7% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 89.0% 89.0% 71.9%
Conference Champion 7.9% 7.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Four7.6% 7.5% 10.9%
First Round67.0% 67.1% 40.6%
Second Round40.0% 40.0% 25.0%
Sweet Sixteen13.3% 13.3% 9.4%
Elite Eight4.9% 4.9% 3.1%
Final Four1.7% 1.7% 0.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 24 - 19 - 9
Quad 35 - 114 - 9
Quad 49 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 291 Jacksonville W 86-69 98%     1 - 0 +6.7 +5.1 +0.8
  Thu, Nov 6 220 Bethune-Cookman W 101-61 96%     2 - 0 +33.3 +21.5 +10.6
  Mon, Nov 10 347 Stetson W 102-61 99%     3 - 0 +25.9 +10.4 +10.9
  Sun, Nov 16 14 Florida L 68-82 33%     3 - 1 +4.0 -1.2 +6.5
  Thu, Nov 20 184 Elon W 99-72 94%     4 - 1 +22.3 +15.7 +5.4
  Sun, Nov 23 351 Delaware St. W 97-41 99%     5 - 1 +40.2 +19.7 +20.1
  Thu, Nov 27 9 BYU L 62-72 28%     5 - 2 +9.5 -1.7 +11.0
  Fri, Nov 28 86 Georgetown W 78-65 75%     6 - 2 +19.3 +13.0 +7.3
  Tue, Dec 2 57 @Mississippi W 75-66 52%     7 - 2 +22.0 +12.0 +10.3
  Sat, Dec 6 224 Southern Miss W 88-64 96%     8 - 2 +17.2 +5.9 +10.1
  Sat, Dec 13 360 Louisiana Monroe W 91-60 99.8%   
  Tue, Dec 16 189 Florida International W 86-68 96%    
  Sun, Dec 21 344 North Florida W 96-68 99.5%   
  Tue, Dec 30 95 Pittsburgh W 77-66 85%    
  Wed, Jan 7 50 @Wake Forest L 77-78 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 135 Georgia Tech W 81-66 91%    
  Tue, Jan 13 58 @Notre Dame W 72-71 54%    
  Sat, Jan 17 33 @Clemson L 71-74 40%    
  Tue, Jan 20 101 Florida St. W 86-75 85%    
  Sat, Jan 24 60 @Syracuse W 74-73 54%    
  Wed, Jan 28 85 Stanford W 83-73 81%    
  Sat, Jan 31 76 California W 80-71 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 145 @Boston College W 75-66 80%    
  Tue, Feb 10 22 North Carolina W 78-77 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 36 @North Carolina St. L 80-82 41%    
  Tue, Feb 17 67 Virginia Tech W 81-73 76%    
  Sat, Feb 21 23 @Virginia L 73-77 34%    
  Tue, Feb 24 101 @Florida St. W 83-78 69%    
  Sat, Feb 28 145 Boston College W 78-63 92%    
  Wed, Mar 4 40 @SMU L 78-80 45%    
  Sat, Mar 7 13 Louisville L 79-81 43%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.9 2.2 0.9 0.2 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.7 3.8 0.9 0.1 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.2 6.5 3.4 0.4 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 6.3 3.5 0.5 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.9 4.5 0.7 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 5.0 1.4 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.4 2.2 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.7 3.5 0.4 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.1 0.8 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.2 1.9 1.6 0.1 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.3 2.7 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.4 13th
14th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.5 9.1 12.6 14.8 16.0 14.1 11.0 7.1 3.2 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-1 91.1% 0.9    0.6 0.2
16-2 70.0% 2.2    1.3 0.8 0.1
15-3 40.4% 2.9    1.1 1.3 0.5 0.0
14-4 13.3% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 3.4 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 3.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.2% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 4.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.1% 99.8% 12.1% 87.6% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-4 11.0% 98.8% 9.4% 89.4% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.0 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
13-5 14.1% 95.7% 6.9% 88.8% 7.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.6 3.3 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.6 95.3%
12-6 16.0% 88.2% 4.7% 83.5% 8.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.7 3.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 1.9 87.6%
11-7 14.8% 73.8% 2.1% 71.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.1 3.6 1.8 0.0 3.9 73.2%
10-8 12.6% 51.5% 1.2% 50.3% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.5 2.3 0.0 6.1 50.9%
9-9 9.1% 30.2% 0.8% 29.4% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.1 6.3 29.6%
8-10 5.5% 11.2% 0.3% 10.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 4.9 11.0%
7-11 3.1% 3.9% 0.5% 3.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0 3.4%
6-12 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 1.4 0.5%
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 70.8% 4.9% 65.9% 7.6 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.1 6.9 8.4 9.8 10.8 10.7 10.6 6.6 0.2 29.2 69.3%