Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#253
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#188
Pace71.5#110
Improvement-1.0#251

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#274
First Shot-4.2#303
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#138
Layup/Dunks+0.3#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#326
Freethrows+1.2#104
Improvement+0.3#150

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#225
First Shot-0.1#173
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#302
Layups/Dunks-0.3#175
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#181
Freethrows-0.9#251
Improvement-1.3#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 12.4% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 63.9% 82.0% 62.1%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 75.5% 66.1%
Conference Champion 7.8% 12.6% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.5% 2.9%
First Four2.0% 1.4% 2.0%
First Round7.0% 11.5% 6.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Away) - 9.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 32 - 7
Quad 415 - 817 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 19   @ Maryland L 52-86 3%     0 - 1 -15.9 -11.5 -4.2
  Nov 13, 2024 264   @ Bucknell W 93-89 2OT 40%     1 - 1 +1.4 +5.3 -4.6
  Nov 16, 2024 336   St. Francis (PA) W 66-58 80%     2 - 1 -6.1 -11.5 +5.7
  Nov 20, 2024 71   @ Georgetown L 51-79 7%     2 - 2 -17.0 -16.0 -0.8
  Nov 23, 2024 326   Delaware St. W 76-66 76%     3 - 2 -2.4 +3.5 -5.1
  Nov 30, 2024 255   @ Howard W 79-75 39%     4 - 2 +1.9 -0.2 +1.8
  Dec 06, 2024 233   @ Marist L 50-53 33%     4 - 3 0 - 1 -3.7 -17.6 +13.6
  Dec 08, 2024 280   Fairfield W 101-94 67%     5 - 3 1 - 1 -2.6 +19.8 -22.6
  Dec 14, 2024 313   Loyola Maryland L 69-77 73%     5 - 4 -19.5 -10.3 -9.0
  Dec 18, 2024 340   @ LIU Brooklyn W 80-72 62%     6 - 4 -0.4 +2.8 -3.4
  Dec 21, 2024 93   @ Miami (FL) L 69-83 9%    
  Dec 28, 2024 87   @ George Mason L 61-76 9%    
  Jan 05, 2025 320   Niagara W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 10, 2025 293   @ Manhattan L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 12, 2025 284   Sacred Heart W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 16, 2025 300   @ Rider L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 245   Quinnipiac W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 23, 2025 305   @ Siena L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 293   Manhattan W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 31, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 65-71 28%    
  Feb 02, 2025 210   @ St. Peter's L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 06, 2025 258   Iona W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 14, 2025 320   @ Niagara W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 16, 2025 350   @ Canisius W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 21, 2025 210   St. Peter's W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 23, 2025 300   Rider W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 28, 2025 280   @ Fairfield L 73-74 44%    
  Mar 02, 2025 305   Siena W 71-65 70%    
  Mar 06, 2025 245   @ Quinnipiac L 73-76 38%    
  Mar 08, 2025 233   Marist W 69-67 55%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.5 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 7.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.8 4.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.6 2.7 0.2 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.8 3.6 0.5 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.4 4.6 0.9 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.5 1.4 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.4 2.2 0.1 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 5.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.0 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.6 6.2 8.7 11.5 13.2 14.0 13.2 10.5 7.6 4.9 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 99.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 92.9% 0.9    0.8 0.1 0.0
16-4 78.1% 1.9    1.4 0.4 0.1
15-5 51.4% 2.5    1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0
14-6 22.1% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.6% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 4.1 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 44.0% 44.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 32.0% 32.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.0% 28.7% 28.7% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-4 2.4% 24.8% 24.8% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.8
15-5 4.9% 20.3% 20.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 3.9
14-6 7.6% 16.9% 16.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 6.4
13-7 10.5% 14.0% 14.0% 15.6 0.0 0.6 0.8 9.0
12-8 13.2% 10.3% 10.3% 15.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 11.8
11-9 14.0% 6.3% 6.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 13.1
10-10 13.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.1 0.4 12.7
9-11 11.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.2
8-12 8.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.5
7-13 6.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 6.1
6-14 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.5
5-15 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.5 92.0 0.0%