Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.5 289
Expected Predictive Rating -6.7 271
Pace 68.8 179
Improvement +3.6 51

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #318 C- C- F C- B-
Defense C- #231 C C+ D- D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 142 57% 208 +0.3 165
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 306 32% 343 -3.2 330
Three Pointers 46% 88 32% 270 +0.8 151
1st FG Attempt 0.98 238 -2.1 237
Second Chance 28.3% 242 1.03 173 0.29 222
Turnovers 22.2% 363
Freethrows 0.31 161 68% 321 0.21 211
Total Offense -5.7 318

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 294 55% 110 +3.1 80
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 197 41% 288 -0.3 213
Three Pointers 45% 59 34% 181 -2.3 291
1st FG Attempt 1.01 167 +0.5 167
Second Chance 29.3% 128 1.02 168 0.30 140
Turnovers 13.7% 340
Freethrows 0.33 277 74% 296 0.25 290
Total Defense -1.8 231

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.9 65 -0.2 136
Shot Type Accuracy -2.9 286 -0.3 168
Possession Length 16.9 127 16.9 117
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 246 0.20 282
Improvement +1.9 #96 +1.7 #90

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 5% 7% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 63% 79% 36%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Rider (Away) - 63.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 413 - 914 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 56 @West Virginia L 54 - 70 4% -6  9% 0 - 1 C- -3 F -10 F+ A- F B+ +7 B A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 324 Bucknell L 62 - 73 71% -4  9% 0 - 2 F -24 F -14 F F F F+ -11 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 66 65% +5  79% 1 - 2 C- -3 D- -7 B F F B- +3 B+ B D
 Sun, Nov 16 45 @Cincinnati L 55 - 72 3% -0  57% 1 - 3 C- -2 F -11 C- D+ F A- +9 A- A D
 Wed, Nov 19 104 @Maryland L 90 - 95 OT 9% -2  27% 1 - 4 C+ +2 B+ +8 A B F D+ -5 C- B F+
 Sun, Nov 23 295 @Western Michigan L 60 - 83 39% -8  1% 1 - 5 F -28 F -18 F+ D- F F+ -10 D- D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 39 @Ohio St. L 60 - 113 2% -25  0% 1 - 6 F -36 F -13 C- F C- F -21 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 237 Howard W 79 - 75 49% +5  94% 2 - 6 C- -3 C+ +3 A C D D -6 A- D F
 Wed, Dec 3 287 Sacred Heart L 80 - 87 61% -2  25% 2 - 7 0 - 1 F+ -17 C -0 C- A- C F -18 B F D
 Fri, Dec 5 163 @Marist L 56 - 64 17% -2  50% 2 - 8 0 - 2 D+ -5 F -14 F+ C F A- +9 B- D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 312 @Loyola Maryland W 81 - 73 44% +5  87% 3 - 8 C+ +2 D+ -3 B B- F B +4 D A+ D
 Fri, Dec 19 217 @Drexel L 67 - 75 24% -7  9% 3 - 9 D+ -8 D- -7 A- D+ F C -1 F C A
 Mon, Dec 29 247 Iona W 66 - 59 51% +1  53% 4 - 9 1 - 2 C -1 F -16 D D- F A+ +15 A+ D+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 182 @Merrimack L 65 - 75 20% -4  8% 4 - 10 1 - 3 D -8 D- -8 F+ D- F C -1 B- C- D
 Sun, Jan 4 195 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 80 22% -6  9% 4 - 11 1 - 4 D -10 D -5 F A+ C- D+ -5 F B+ D+
 Fri, Jan 9 228 St. Peter's W 70 - 65 47% +1  55% 5 - 11 2 - 4 C- -2 D -5 F B+ C- B- +4 B+ A- C
 Sun, Jan 11 181 Siena L 50 - 67 38% -5  3% 5 - 12 2 - 5 F -21 F -21 F C+ F C- -3 C B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 346 @Canisius W 78 - 68 57% +1  44% 6 - 12 3 - 5 C +1 C+ +3 B+ C F C- -2 F A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 335 @Niagara W 68 - 58 53% +1  39% 7 - 12 4 - 5 C+ +2 C -0 D+ D- C- B- +3 A+ F B
 Thu, Jan 22 195 Quinnipiac L 62 - 77 41% -12  8% 7 - 13 4 - 6 F -20 F -14 C- F F D -6 D- A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 354 Rider W 71 - 61 81% +0  44% 8 - 13 5 - 6 D+ -7 D+ -3 B C- F C- -3 A+ F F
 Fri, Jan 30 228 @St. Peter's L 58 - 66 26% -1  39% 8 - 14 5 - 7 D -9 F+ -8 D- C- F C- -2 C C+ D-
 Sun, Feb 1 323 Manhattan W 72 - 65 71% +4  92% 9 - 14 6 - 7 D+ -6 D- -8 F A+ F C+ +2 B+ F F+
 Thu, Feb 5 182 Merrimack L 70 - 87 38% -10  6% 9 - 15 6 - 8 F -21 D- -7 C D+ C- F -14 F A D
 Sat, Feb 7 247 @Iona W 83 - 76 29% +3  74% 10 - 15 7 - 8 B- +5 A+ +17 A B+ D+ F+ -11 B- F F
 Fri, Feb 13 354 @Rider W 71 - 68 64%
 Fri, Feb 20 335 Niagara W 69 - 62 74%
 Sun, Feb 22 346 Canisius W 71 - 63 76%
 Fri, Feb 27 287 @Sacred Heart L 75 - 78 38%
 Sun, Mar 1 262 @Fairfield L 70 - 75 32%
Totals 13 - 17 10 - 10 -7 D -6 C- C- F C- -2 C C+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- D- D+ D+ 40% 14% 46% B- C- C- C C- F C D- C- C- C+ D+ C C 35% 20% 45% C+ C C+ C C+ D- D+ D+ D+
1.01 57% 32% 32% -3 +1 0.98 28% 1.0 .29 22% .31 68% .21 1.11 55% 41% 34% 0 0 1.01 29% 1.0 .30 14% .33 74% .23
Nov
4		 West Virginia F C- F F F 53% 10% 38% A+ F+ C+ A+ A- F A+ D- A+ B+ C D+ A B 43% 16% 41% C- B A+ A+ A+ D F C+ F
0.80 52% 0% 20% -15 +2 0.78 26% 1.4 .35 30% .40 68% .27 1.04 58% 43% 28% -3 +1 0.98 17% 0.8 .14 13% .60 66% .39
Nov
7		 Bucknell F A- D- F F 40% 7% 52% A F C F F F A+ C- A+ F+ D- C D- F 42% 17% 42% C- F B- A+ A+ F F A+ D+
0.95 71% 33% 18% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.6 .21 23% .50 72% .36 1.12 64% 33% 36% +3 +1 1.09 23% 0.3 .08 6% .37 65% .24
Nov
11		 St. Francis (PA) D- A+ B+ A- B+ 29% 15% 56% D+ B F F+ F F C- F F B- C C A+ B+ 28% 30% 42% B B+ F A+ B D D- D+ D-
1.07 79% 43% 41% +12 0 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 23% .34 39% .13 0.96 56% 35% 25% -7 -2 0.84 38% 0.5 .19 16% .31 72% .22
Nov
16		 Cincinnati F F+ F C+ D+ 38% 14% 48% B+ C- D B- D+ F F+ F F A- C+ C- A+ A- 37% 19% 44% C- A- C- A+ A D F A F
0.75 42% 29% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 1.1 .21 26% .19 30% .06 0.99 58% 40% 26% -5 0 0.92 34% 0.6 .20 14% .48 60% .29
Nov
19		 Maryland B+ A- F A+ A+ 26% 16% 59% C- A A- C B F C- C- C- D+ A+ F F C 40% 13% 47% D C- C+ B B F+ F F+ F
1.15 67% 11% 47% +10 0 1.21 35% 1.0 .35 24% .27 69% .18 1.21 32% 50% 45% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.0 .34 14% .70 79% .55
Nov
23		 Western Michigan F D+ F D+ F 41% 10% 49% B F+ F B D- F F A+ D- F+ C- F B- D- 43% 19% 38% D- D- A- F D+ F B+ F C
0.88 57% 0% 32% -5 +2 0.94 21% 1.3 .27 25% .22 82% .18 1.22 56% 64% 32% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.4 .33 9% .23 86% .19
Nov
25		 Ohio St. F A A+ F C- 25% 23% 52% C+ C- F F F C- B- F D F F F F F 22% 28% 50% A- F B- F F F+ A- F+ B
0.82 69% 58% 19% -4 -1 0.90 19% 0.4 .07 18% .30 56% .17 1.54 77% 75% 48% +25 -2 1.48 33% 1.6 .52 11% .29 84% .25
Nov
29		 Howard C+ B F A+ A 51% 14% 35% B- A D B+ C D D- A+ C- D B C- A+ B+ 33% 28% 40% A+ A- A- F D F C+ B- C+
1.12 64% 14% 47% +7 +2 1.18 29% 1.3 .36 21% .29 81% .23 1.06 47% 38% 22% -11 -1 0.78 28% 1.5 .43 8% .32 71% .23
Dec
3		 Sacred Heart C B C+ D C- 45% 9% 45% B C- C- A+ A- C D+ F D F B+ F B+ B- 18% 20% 61% A- B F F F D F F F
1.19 68% 40% 32% +3 +2 1.13 30% 1.5 .45 15% .24 64% .16 1.29 50% 44% 30% -4 -1 0.91 44% 1.7 .74 16% .50 86% .42
Dec
5		 Marist F F F F+ F 47% 11% 42% A+ F+ B D- C F B+ F C- A- C+ B+ C+ C+ 34% 32% 34% B B- B F D+ A+ C D- C-
0.78 43% 20% 26% -14 +2 0.78 34% 0.9 .29 29% .42 57% .24 0.89 56% 33% 31% -3 -2 0.91 23% 1.4 .32 27% .25 85% .21
Dec
13		 Loyola Maryland D+ B- A+ C B- 46% 15% 39% B B B- C B- F A+ D+ A+ B B+ B- F D- 32% 11% 58% C D B A+ A+ D C- C C-
1.08 67% 57% 33% +7 +1 1.17 36% 1.2 .43 25% .43 71% .31 0.98 50% 33% 39% +2 +1 1.07 23% 0.4 .09 16% .27 71% .19
Dec
19		 Drexel D- F B+ A+ A 24% 22% 54% D+ A- C D- D+ F A+ C A C D- A+ F F 51% 5% 44% F F A+ F C A F F F
0.93 40% 44% 45% +6 -1 1.12 31% 0.9 .28 32% .41 75% .31 1.05 64% 0% 42% +7 +3 1.21 13% 2.0 .26 25% .43 83% .35
Dec
29		 Iona F D A+ F F 62% 8% 30% A+ D F B+ D- F C- F D A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 28% 17% 55% B- A+ B F D+ B A F B
0.89 55% 50% 19% -8 +3 0.92 23% 1.1 .26 21% .26 60% .15 0.79 31% 40% 25% -14 0 0.72 20% 1.3 .27 20% .17 80% .13
Jan
2		 Merrimack D- D+ A F F 54% 13% 33% A F+ C+ F D- F A+ D A+ C C+ C- A- B- 36% 12% 52% C B- B+ F C- D F C F
0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +2 0.83 43% 0.8 .32 23% .52 68% .35 1.08 53% 40% 27% -7 +1 0.90 19% 1.3 .26 14% .67 78% .52
Jan
4		 Quinnipiac D D+ F D F 28% 20% 52% D F B A+ A+ C- F A F D+ B F F F 34% 30% 36% B+ F F A+ B+ D+ F F F
0.97 53% 9% 32% -9 -1 0.83 39% 1.4 .53 18% .17 80% .14 1.13 50% 57% 41% +7 -1 1.13 41% 0.6 .26 16% .45 78% .35
Jan
9		 St. Peter's D F F D- F 46% 12% 41% B F C- A+ B+ C- A+ A A+ B- A+ D A- A- 27% 16% 58% C- B+ D- A+ A- C F B- F
1.02 42% 20% 29% -12 +2 0.80 33% 1.4 .45 20% .59 81% .48 0.95 33% 43% 27% -12 0 0.78 40% 0.6 .24 18% .51 72% .37
Jan
11		 Siena F F F F F 31% 14% 55% B- F B D C+ F A+ C- A+ C- D- D A C 33% 24% 42% D+ C C- A+ B+ F+ F B F+
0.81 46% 17% 22% -17 0 0.69 37% 0.9 .32 24% .43 70% .30 1.09 67% 45% 26% 0 -1 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 13% .37 70% .26
Jan
17		 Canisius C+ A B+ A+ A 32% 28% 40% F+ B+ D+ B C F C+ C- C+ C- C C F F 25% 20% 55% C+ F A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A
1.16 73% 46% 42% +12 -1 1.23 29% 1.1 .32 22% .33 71% .23 1.01 50% 36% 40% +3 -1 1.05 17% 0.5 .08 15% .12 100% .12
Jan
19		 Niagara C F A+ B- D- 51% 9% 40% A D+ C F D- C- A+ F+ A- B- A+ B- A+ A+ 45% 14% 41% D+ A+ F F F B F B F+
1.11 46% 75% 37% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.7 .25 16% .41 71% .29 0.95 25% 33% 22% -23 +1 0.59 42% 1.3 .56 21% .31 67% .21
Jan
22		 Quinnipiac F B+ F C C- 43% 13% 43% B C- F F F F A+ C A D C A+ F D- 45% 22% 33% D D- A+ C+ A+ F+ D+ A+ B-
0.89 65% 0% 35% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.4 .07 23% .39 71% .28 1.10 56% 17% 50% +2 0 1.07 19% 1.0 .19 13% .31 58% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Rider D+ C+ F+ A+ B 46% 8% 46% B- B D+ B C- F A+ F+ A+ C- A+ A B+ A+ 36% 40% 23% B+ A+ F F F F F F F
1.16 61% 33% 44% +8 +2 1.23 30% 1.1 .33 20% .47 61% .29 1.00 29% 26% 27% -17 -3 0.62 41% 1.1 .46 13% .36 79% .28
Jan
30		 St. Peter's F+ A- F F+ D- 38% 15% 46% C D- B+ F C- F C+ F D C- C+ A+ D- C- 33% 24% 43% C+ C D+ B C+ D- D C+ D+
0.94 67% 0% 28% -7 +1 0.90 42% 0.8 .35 26% .42 63% .26 1.07 53% 17% 36% -5 -1 0.90 38% 0.9 .33 15% .36 74% .27
Feb
1		 Manhattan D- F F F F 40% 21% 38% C- F C+ A+ A+ F B- A+ A C+ B+ F A+ A- 25% 17% 58% C B+ C F F F+ A- D- B+
1.10 47% 30% 28% -10 0 0.83 39% 1.6 .64 20% .27 93% .25 0.99 46% 56% 23% -9 -1 0.83 26% 1.5 .39 12% .23 85% .19
Feb
5		 Merrimack D- F B- A D+ 52% 15% 33% A- C D- B- D+ C- A+ F B F F F F F 30% 10% 60% C+ F A+ C A D F+ F+ F
0.99 42% 43% 40% -5 +2 0.96 35% 1.1 .38 20% .51 55% .28 1.23 67% 60% 40% +10 +1 1.24 13% 1.0 .13 14% .41 84% .35
Feb
7		 Iona A+ A+ A+ C- A+ 27% 12% 61% C- A B B B+ D+ A+ B A+ F+ C+ F A- B- 19% 15% 66% B B- F F+ F F F D+ F
1.31 91% 60% 32% +10 0 1.22 39% 1.1 .43 17% .57 73% .42 1.20 56% 57% 29% -2 -1 0.96 32% 1.2 .38 6% .40 71% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 2.4 4.9 5th
6th 1.0 14.0 17.5 2.2 34.6 6th
7th 0.4 9.7 17.0 2.4 29.5 7th
8th 0.0 3.3 13.1 4.3 0.0 20.7 8th
9th 0.5 4.4 2.6 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.6 1.2 0.1 1.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.2 9.3 26.4 35.4 22.3 5.4 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 5.4% 4.3% 4.3% 15.5 0.1 0.1 5.1
11-9 22.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.6 21.8
10-10 35.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.7 34.8
9-11 26.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 26.1
8-12 9.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.2
7-13 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.9 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.5 47.8 52.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%
Lose Out 0.8%