St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.3 #18
Expected Predictive Rating +15.1 #31
Pace 73.8 #63
Improvement -0.6 #218

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #26 C A+ A- A+ B+
Defense #16 A- C+ A+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #22 1.15 #187 +4.1 #53
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #290 0.72 #232 -2.3 #295
Three Pointers 39% #231 1.03 #163 -0.9 #207
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #153 +0.9 #154
Freethrows 21.9 #11 76% #79 16.6 #7
Second Chance 37.2% #27 1.20 #31 0.44 #20
Turnovers 13.5% #30
Total Offense +8.8 #26

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #90 0.97 #18 +1.9 #114
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #83 0.73 #127 -0.8 #245
Three Pointers 35% #339 0.93 #78 +4.7 #27
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #31 +5.9 #31
Freethrows 17.0 #170 73% #182 12.4 #170
Second Chance 30.2% #159 0.99 #98 0.30 #119
Turnovers 21.4% #9
Total Defense +8.5 #16

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #39 -0.3% #140
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.6% #185 -11.2% #25
Possession Length 15.1 #23 18.9 #354
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #28 0.14 #71
Improvement -1.1 #243 +0.5 #158

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.9% 3.7% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 23.5% 27.6% 11.8%
Top 6 Seed 68.1% 73.4% 53.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.2% 99.6% 98.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.9% 99.4% 97.5%
Average Seed 5.7 5.5 6.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 26.8% 30.7% 15.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
First Round99.1% 99.5% 97.9%
Second Round77.2% 79.7% 70.2%
Sweet Sixteen35.8% 38.2% 29.1%
Elite Eight14.8% 15.9% 11.5%
Final Four6.5% 7.1% 4.7%
Championship Game2.4% 2.7% 1.6%
National Champion0.9% 1.1% 0.5%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 7
Quad 29 - 215 - 8
Quad 35 - 121 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 175 Quinnipiac W 108 - 74 97% +21  1 - 0 +30 +17 A+ A+ C +7 B A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 17 Alabama L 96 - 103 60% -5  1 - 1 +8 +10 A- B- C+ -1 A- C F
 Sat, Nov 15 138 William & Mary W 93 - 60 95% +13  2 - 1 +31 +9 C B A+ +18 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 319 Bucknell W 97 - 49 99% +21  3 - 1 +35 +13 C D- C- +19 A+ B A+
 Mon, Nov 24 8 Iowa St. L 82 - 83 38% -4  3 - 2 +19 +22 C A+ A+ -2 A+ F B
 Tue, Nov 25 41 Baylor W 96 - 81 69% +12  4 - 2 +27 +24 A+ A+ B +3 A+ B+ B+
 Wed, Nov 26 27 Auburn L 74 - 85 59% -2  4 - 3 +4 +10 F A+ D+ -6 D- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 62 Mississippi W 63 - 58 86% +5  5 - 3 +11 -8 F A+ F +19 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 227 Iona W 91 - 64 98% +8  6 - 3 +20 +9 A+ B F +9 A+ C C
 Tue, Dec 16 99 DePaul W 79 - 66 91% +4  7 - 3 1 - 0 +15 +9 C C A+ +6 A+ D C+
 Sat, Dec 20 25 Kentucky L 66 - 78 55% -3  7 - 4 +4 +1 F A+ C +3 A D A+
 Tue, Dec 23 168 Harvard W 85 - 59 96% +9  8 - 4 +22 +13 B A+ D+ +10 B A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 93 @Georgetown W 95 - 83 80% +6  9 - 4 2 - 0 +21 +27 A+ A+ B- -6 F B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 65 Providence L 71 - 77 86% +4  9 - 5 2 - 1 -1 -8 F A+ D+ +8 A+ F B-
 Tue, Jan 6 59 @Butler W 84 - 70 68% -1  10 - 5 3 - 1 +27 +15 B C A+ +12 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 44 @Creighton W 90 - 73 61% +13  11 - 5 4 - 1 +31 +26 A+ C A+ +6 C A+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 102 Marquette W 92 - 68 92% +9  12 - 5 5 - 1 +26 +14 C+ A+ A+ +10 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 33 @Villanova W 86 - 79 51% +3  13 - 5 6 - 1 +24 +20 A- A+ A+ +4 D+ C- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 56 Seton Hall W 65 - 60 83% -7  14 - 5 7 - 1 +12 +6 F A- A +6 C+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 81 @Xavier W 83 - 76 74%
 Wed, Jan 28 59 Butler W 87 - 76 84%
 Tue, Feb 3 99 @DePaul W 79 - 70 80%
 Fri, Feb 6 7 Connecticut L 72 - 73 50%
 Mon, Feb 9 81 Xavier W 86 - 73 88%
 Sat, Feb 14 65 @Providence W 90 - 84 70%
 Wed, Feb 18 102 @Marquette W 84 - 74 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 44 Creighton W 83 - 74 80%
 Wed, Feb 25 7 @Connecticut L 70 - 76 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 33 Villanova W 76 - 70 72%
 Tue, Mar 3 93 Georgetown W 84 - 69 92%
 Fri, Mar 6 56 @Seton Hall W 72 - 68 65%
Totals 23 - 8 16 - 4 +17 +9 C A+ A- +9 A- C+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 4.5 10.2 9.1 2.2 26.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 9.0 17.5 19.2 9.5 1.1 58.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.7 4.5 2.2 0.3 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.5 6.5 13.7 20.4 24.0 19.8 10.1 2.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2
18-2 89.3% 9.1    6.6 2.5
17-3 51.8% 10.2    5.2 4.9 0.1
16-4 18.6% 4.5    1.4 2.6 0.4
15-5 3.9% 0.8    0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.8% 26.8 15.5 10.6 0.7 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.2% 100.0% 44.2% 55.8% 2.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 10.1% 100.0% 38.2% 61.8% 3.7 0.3 1.0 3.0 3.3 1.9 0.6 0.0 100.0%
17-3 19.8% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 4.7 0.1 0.4 2.4 5.9 6.5 3.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 24.0% 100.0% 26.6% 73.3% 5.5 0.0 0.6 3.3 7.4 8.1 3.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 20.4% 99.6% 24.2% 75.4% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.0 7.2 5.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.5%
14-6 13.7% 98.8% 19.1% 79.8% 7.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 4.8 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.6%
13-7 6.5% 97.1% 16.1% 81.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 96.6%
12-8 2.5% 93.0% 12.2% 80.7% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 92.0%
11-9 0.7% 83.8% 9.9% 73.9% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 82.0%
10-10 0.2% 54.3% 8.6% 45.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 50.0%
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.2% 26.7% 72.5% 5.7 0.8 98.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.7 43.2 46.4 9.4 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 3.0 8.1 20.7 40.5 26.1 3.6 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 3.4 7.1 8.3 36.9 35.7 11.9