St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.8#13
Expected Predictive Rating+19.7#8
Pace73.2#55
Improvement-1.2#246

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#63
First Shot+0.9#136
After Offensive Rebound+4.2#10
Layup/Dunks+1.5#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#305
Freethrows-0.9#243
Improvement-2.1#281

Defense
Total Defense+12.7#1
First Shot+12.8#1
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#199
Layups/Dunks+4.2#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#64
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#27
Freethrows+2.9#25
Improvement+0.9#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.5% 3.0% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 19.7% 22.8% 3.4%
Top 4 Seed 86.2% 89.0% 71.3%
Top 6 Seed 99.3% 99.5% 98.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.4 3.3 4.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round91.3% 91.7% 89.0%
Sweet Sixteen56.1% 56.3% 55.0%
Elite Eight24.5% 25.0% 21.5%
Final Four9.8% 9.8% 9.6%
Championship Game3.6% 3.5% 3.9%
National Champion1.1% 1.2% 0.7%

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 13 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 4
Quad 210 - 015 - 5
Quad 37 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 222   Fordham W 92-60 98%     1 - 0 +25.9 +10.2 +13.8
  Nov 09, 2024 199   Quinnipiac W 96-73 97%     2 - 0 +18.1 +12.0 +3.4
  Nov 13, 2024 343   Wagner W 66-45 99%     3 - 0 +6.0 -4.8 +12.7
  Nov 17, 2024 41   New Mexico W 85-71 77%     4 - 0 +23.9 +19.6 +4.4
  Nov 21, 2024 26   Baylor L 98-99 2OT 61%     4 - 1 +14.0 +9.5 +4.7
  Nov 22, 2024 99   Virginia W 80-55 89%     5 - 1 +29.6 +17.9 +14.6
  Nov 24, 2024 33   Georgia L 63-66 65%     5 - 2 +10.7 -0.3 +10.9
  Nov 30, 2024 243   Harvard W 77-64 98%     6 - 2 +5.8 +2.6 +3.3
  Dec 07, 2024 59   Kansas St. W 88-71 85%     7 - 2 +23.9 +13.8 +8.6
  Dec 11, 2024 149   Bryant W 99-77 96%     8 - 2 +19.9 +15.1 +2.5
  Dec 17, 2024 113   DePaul W 89-61 94%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +28.7 +16.6 +12.3
  Dec 20, 2024 91   @ Providence W 72-70 81%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +10.4 +0.4 +10.0
  Dec 28, 2024 228   Delaware W 97-76 98%     11 - 2 +14.7 +12.2 +1.4
  Dec 31, 2024 32   @ Creighton L 56-57 55%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +15.6 -4.6 +20.2
  Jan 04, 2025 72   Butler W 70-62 88%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +13.2 -11.0 +23.3
  Jan 07, 2025 40   @ Xavier W 82-72 59%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +25.6 +10.9 +13.9
  Jan 11, 2025 44   Villanova W 80-68 81%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +20.7 +14.8 +6.8
  Jan 14, 2025 83   Georgetown W 63-58 90%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +8.8 -4.6 +13.5
  Jan 18, 2025 167   @ Seton Hall W 79-51 92%     16 - 3 7 - 1 +30.2 +10.8 +19.2
  Jan 22, 2025 40   Xavier W 79-71 OT 77%     17 - 3 8 - 1 +18.1 +6.7 +10.9
  Jan 28, 2025 83   @ Georgetown W 66-41 79%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +34.3 +0.6 +34.2
  Feb 01, 2025 91   Providence W 68-66 91%     19 - 3 10 - 1 +4.9 -6.5 +11.4
  Feb 04, 2025 25   Marquette W 70-64 69%     20 - 3 11 - 1 +18.6 +6.1 +12.7
  Feb 07, 2025 28   @ Connecticut W 68-62 52%     21 - 3 12 - 1 +23.2 +1.3 +22.1
  Feb 12, 2025 44   @ Villanova L 71-73 64%     21 - 4 12 - 2 +12.2 +12.6 -0.7
  Feb 16, 2025 32   Creighton W 79-73 74%     22 - 4 13 - 2 +17.1 +8.2 +8.7
  Feb 19, 2025 113   @ DePaul W 82-58 86%     23 - 4 14 - 2 +30.2 +12.9 +17.7
  Feb 23, 2025 28   Connecticut W 89-75 72%     24 - 4 15 - 2 +25.7 +14.5 +10.6
  Feb 26, 2025 72   @ Butler W 76-70 75%     25 - 4 16 - 2 +16.7 +10.4 +6.7
  Mar 01, 2025 167   Seton Hall W 71-61 96%     26 - 4 17 - 2 +6.7 +1.4 +5.4
  Mar 08, 2025 25   @ Marquette W 86-84 OT 49%     27 - 4 18 - 2 +20.1 +13.9 +6.0
  Mar 13, 2025 72   Butler W 79-69 82%    
Projected Record 28 - 4 18 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 3.4 2.5 17.2 37.1 29.3 9.8 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 3.4 2.5 17.2 37.1 29.3 9.8 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 34.8% 100.0% 2.7 6.1 35.2 44.3 13.6 0.8 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 18.4% 100.0% 3.5 0.7 11.6 41.4 35.3 9.2 1.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 30.5% 99.9% 3.8 0.7 7.4 32.4 37.0 15.6 5.5 1.2 0.1
Lose Out 16.3% 100.0% 4.1 0.2 3.3 25.8 42.0 18.9 8.0 1.6 0.2