Alabama A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.8 310
Results Rating -6.9 275
Pace 64.5 289
Improvement -3.1 298

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 295 D- D C B- D+
Defense D+ 300 D C D+ C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 210 D- 51% 333 -3.1 287
2 Pt. Jumpers 54% 36 D+ 34% 295 +1.4 102
Three Pointers 35% 295 C- 32% 249 -3.6 304
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 297 D -4.5 320
1st FG Attempt D- 0.91 336
Second Chance D 24.8% 327 C- 1.01 202 D 0.25 310
Turnovers C 17.1% 195
Freethrows B- 0.34 83 C+ 74% 137 B- 0.25 81
Total Offense D+ -4.7 295

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 41% 298 C- 11.5% 212
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 303 B- 4.0% 104
Three Pointers F+ 74% 342 B+ 0.3% 37
Total F+ 45% 348 C 5.5% 176

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 117 D+ 62% 297 +3.3 290
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 285 B 35% 62 -1.9 41
Three Pointers 42% 155 D- 38% 336 +2.8 309
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 281 D +3.5 312
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 318
Second Chance D+ 32.3% 262 B- 0.98 102 C 0.32 197
Turnovers D+ 15.7% 250
Freethrows D+ 0.33 261 C+ 71% 113 C- 0.24 243
Total Defense D+ -4.1 300

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 340 D+ 9.1% 246
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 339 C- 4.0% 228
Three Pointers C- 86% 241 D 0.2% 333
Total D- 64% 341 D+ 4.5% 268

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 297 16.8 92
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 209 0.23 341
Improvement +0.9 #139 -4.0 #340

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 323 306 282
Results Rating Rank 324 279 245
Conference Record 9 - 9 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 6 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 11% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 76% 90% 53%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 2% 3% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four9% 10% 8%
First Round5% 5% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Home) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 20 - 5
Quad 416 - 916 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 38 @Indiana L 51 - 98 2% -31  0% 0 - 1 F -30 F -18 F+ F C+ F -12 F C B-
 Thu, Nov 13 268 Charleston Southern W 68 - 64 51% +5  77% 1 - 1 D+ -5 F -11 F A F B+ +6 B- D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 272 Lindenwood W 74 - 65 52% +2  61% 2 - 1 C -0 C- -1 C+ C D+ C+ +1 C C B-
 Fri, Nov 28 41 @Clemson L 56 - 92 2% -25  0% 2 - 2 F -20 F -10 C- F B+ F -10 D F+ B-
 Sun, Nov 30 236 @Coastal Carolina L 60 - 67 23% -6  0% 2 - 3 D -8 F -12 F+ F D B +4 A- C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 224 Tennessee St. W 80 - 53 42% +9  97% 3 - 3 A +20 B +6 B+ B- F A+ +17 A+ C- A
 Sun, Dec 7 188 @Lipscomb L 58 - 92 17% -13  0% 3 - 4 F -33 F -12 F D- C- F -23 F F F
 Mon, Dec 15 342 North Alabama W 68 - 60 74% +0  53% 4 - 4 D+ -7 F -11 F C A- B +4 D- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 72 Mississippi L 66 - 80 7% -13  0% 4 - 5 D+ -6 C +0 B- C- B- D- -8 F A C-
 Sun, Dec 21 274 Chattanooga L 66 - 73 52% -4  20% 4 - 6 F+ -16 F+ -8 F+ D B- F+ -9 D- C- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 329 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 83 - 95 47% -4  33% 4 - 7 0 - 1 F -20 A- +11 D- A+ C F -32 F F D
 Mon, Jan 5 365 @Mississippi Valley W 71 - 51 86% +10  80% 5 - 7 1 - 1 C -0 F -12 F D F A+ +12 B C+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 345 Alcorn St. L 62 - 64 74% +4  80% 5 - 8 1 - 2 F+ -18 F -16 F F C C- -2 C B F
 Mon, Jan 12 337 Jackson St. W 100 - 91 72% +6  73% 6 - 8 2 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +2 C+ C+ C- F+ -9 F+ B- F
 Mon, Jan 19 312 Alabama St. W 73 - 69 52% +0  52% 7 - 8 3 - 2 D+ -5 D- -6 F D B- C+ +1 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 305 @Texas Southern L 74 - 89 38% +1  40% 7 - 9 3 - 3 F -21 C- -1 B F+ D F -20 F D+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 331 @Prairie View W 80 - 60 48% +12  84% 8 - 9 4 - 3 B+ +12 C+ +3 B F C+ A +9 B- A C
 Sat, Jan 31 328 Florida A&M W 72 - 65 69% +8  99% 9 - 9 5 - 3 D+ -7 C +1 D D- B D- -7 D+ C- C-
 Mon, Feb 2 240 Bethune-Cookman L 62 - 80 44% -14  0% 9 - 10 5 - 4 F -25 F -18 F F D+ D- -7 F A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 258 @Southern L 68 - 81 28% -8  0% 9 - 11 5 - 5 F+ -16 D+ -3 F C A+ F -13 F F D-
 Mon, Feb 9 296 @Grambling St. W 66 - 58 35% +10  97% 10 - 11 6 - 5 C+ +3 D -5 D- F+ D+ A- +8 A+ C- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 72 - 65 94% +1  44% 11 - 11 7 - 5 F -19 D- -7 D- D B- F -12 D C- D-
 Mon, Feb 16 329 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82 - 70 69% +4  79% 12 - 11 8 - 5 C- -2 B +7 A- D C- D- -8 C- C F
 Thu, Feb 19 328 @Florida A&M W 63 - 61 46% +1  59% 13 - 11 9 - 5 D+ -6 D- -7 C- D D C+ +1 D B D
 Sat, Feb 21 240 @Bethune-Cookman L 76 - 85 24% -9  3% 13 - 12 9 - 6 D -10 B- +4 D+ D+ B- F -15 F F C-
 Sat, Feb 28 312 Alabama St. W 73 - 69 64%
 Tue, Mar 3 296 Grambling St. W 68 - 66 58%
 Thu, Mar 5 258 Southern L 73 - 74 50%
Totals 15 - 13 11 - 7 -9 D+ -5 C- D D+ D+ -4 C- C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D- D+ C- D 38% 54% 35% D+ D- D C- D C B- C+ B- D+ D+ B D- D 41% 17% 42% D+ D D+ B- C D+ D+ C+ C-
1.02 51% 34% 32% -4 -1 0.91 25% 1.0 .25 17% .34 74% .25 1.14 62% 35% 38% +3 +1 1.11 32% 1.0 .32 16% .33 71% .24
Nov
5		 Indiana F F F C F+ 34% 36% 30% D F+ F A F C+ C+ F F+ F F D+ F F 57% 4% 40% F F B- D C B- A- F C-
0.73 35% 28% 33% -12 -2 0.74 8% 1.3 .10 16% .32 53% .17 1.39 80% 50% 43% +18 +3 1.45 27% 1.2 .32 16% .27 100% .27
Nov
13		 Charleston Southern F F B B- F 41% 34% 25% D F A- B+ A F F A+ F+ B+ F+ A+ A- B- 41% 11% 48% C- B- F B+ D+ A+ F A D-
0.98 26% 42% 36% -11 -2 0.77 38% 1.2 .45 20% .22 92% .20 0.92 67% 20% 29% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 26% .37 58% .21
Nov
16		 Lindenwood C- B- F A B- 36% 20% 44% D C+ D A- C D+ A+ B+ A+ C+ F D+ A+ C 43% 17% 40% D+ C C+ C C B- F B+ D
1.09 63% 22% 40% +2 0 1.07 28% 1.3 .34 19% .46 76% .35 0.96 70% 38% 16% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.1 .32 21% .39 62% .24
Nov
28		 Clemson F B+ A+ F C 22% 37% 41% F C- F F F B+ C D- C- F F+ F+ D+ D 47% 8% 45% D- D D F F+ B- F C- F
0.79 64% 47% 19% -5 -3 0.86 8% 0.7 .05 16% .29 71% .20 1.30 70% 50% 36% +8 +2 1.22 33% 1.2 .40 16% .54 75% .40
Nov
30		 Coastal Carolina F F D+ D- F+ 32% 34% 34% C- F+ D- F F D A F B- B A+ C C A- 30% 36% 34% B+ A- C+ C+ C+ C F F F
0.87 44% 35% 29% -8 -2 0.82 20% 0.7 .14 15% .37 64% .24 0.97 31% 38% 33% -9 -3 0.80 24% 0.9 .22 16% .59 82% .48
Dec
3		 Tennessee St. B C+ A- A+ A- 42% 19% 40% D+ B+ A F+ B- F A+ C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% B A+ F A+ C- A F A+ C-
1.23 61% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 23% .54 74% .40 0.81 50% 25% 18% -15 -2 0.67 47% 0.7 .34 21% .39 55% .22
Dec
7		 Lipscomb F F F D F 40% 32% 28% D+ F C+ F D- C- A+ C A+ F F F D F 53% 5% 42% F F B- F F F B- A+ B+
0.88 42% 27% 31% -11 -1 0.77 33% 0.7 .23 18% .39 71% .28 1.40 73% 67% 38% +12 +3 1.32 21% 1.7 .36 6% .21 62% .13
Dec
15		 North Alabama F F B- F F 36% 23% 40% D- F C- B C A- A+ F+ A+ B D A+ F F 32% 28% 40% A+ D- A+ A+ A+ C C- A B-
1.04 35% 45% 21% -14 -1 0.72 32% 1.2 .39 11% .53 68% .36 0.92 60% 23% 42% +1 -1 1.02 12% 0.5 .06 18% .32 59% .19
Dec
17		 Mississippi C F F A+ B 31% 31% 38% D B- D- A C- B- B+ D- B- D- F+ D- F F 36% 26% 38% F F B+ A A C- F A+ F
1.03 43% 21% 53% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.3 .28 17% .37 65% .24 1.24 73% 45% 50% +17 -1 1.33 26% 0.9 .23 12% .53 60% .32
Dec
21		 Chattanooga F+ D D- F F 43% 20% 37% C F+ F A D B- B+ B- B+ F+ C+ B- F F+ 33% 17% 50% D+ D- B+ F C- D- C- A- C+
1.04 52% 30% 28% -8 0 0.88 23% 1.3 .31 13% .41 74% .30 1.14 56% 38% 42% +5 0 1.13 16% 1.6 .25 13% .29 69% .20
Jan
3		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A- C D F F+ 44% 20% 36% C- D- A+ C- A+ C A+ A- A+ F D C- F F 40% 27% 33% C F F F F D F F+ F
1.30 60% 33% 25% -5 +1 0.93 56% 1.1 .63 16% .52 82% .43 1.49 63% 38% 56% +13 -1 1.27 54% 1.2 .65 16% .48 81% .39
Jan
5		 Mississippi Valley F F F D+ F 43% 14% 43% B- F C- F+ D F A+ A A+ A+ A B- A B+ 30% 36% 34% D+ B B+ D- C+ A F+ B D
1.01 44% 17% 33% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.1 .40 24% .56 83% .47 0.72 43% 35% 25% -10 -3 0.77 19% 1.0 .19 26% .34 67% .23
Jan
10		 Alcorn St. F F+ A+ F F 35% 17% 48% D F F+ D- F C C- F F C- B+ F C+ C+ 46% 18% 36% F C C A+ B F C+ F C-
0.96 53% 63% 22% -7 0 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 19% .32 53% .17 0.99 48% 44% 33% -4 +1 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 14% .23 77% .18
Jan
12		 Jackson St. C+ A+ C- D+ C+ 37% 18% 45% C- C+ F A+ C+ C- A+ A- A+ F+ F+ F A- D- 32% 13% 55% F F+ A+ F B- F F C- F
1.23 78% 33% 32% +5 0 1.12 25% 1.6 .41 16% .63 79% .50 1.12 63% 63% 27% -1 0 1.02 15% 1.5 .22 12% .43 77% .34
Jan
19		 Alabama St. D- A+ F F F 33% 27% 40% F+ F F A+ D B- A+ A A+ C+ F D+ A F 26% 28% 47% A- D- F+ F F A+ D B D+
1.02 80% 17% 22% -5 -1 0.89 20% 1.5 .30 17% .49 83% .40 0.97 83% 38% 27% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.3 .47 28% .33 65% .21
Jan
24		 Texas Southern C- D- A+ A+ B+ 42% 24% 33% D B F C+ F+ D C- F+ D+ F F A+ F F 37% 24% 39% C- F C- D+ D+ F F D- F
1.10 53% 55% 47% +8 0 1.18 22% 1.1 .25 18% .36 65% .23 1.32 68% 17% 55% +11 0 1.24 27% 1.1 .30 10% .40 75% .30
Jan
27		 Prairie View C+ A+ B B- A- 37% 33% 30% F B F F F C+ F A+ F+ A D+ A A+ B 43% 34% 23% D+ B- F A+ A C A+ C A+
1.17 75% 44% 38% +10 -2 1.19 26% 0.9 .22 18% .23 92% .21 0.88 58% 26% 23% -8 -1 0.84 34% 0.3 .11 16% .21 75% .16
Jan
31		 Florida A&M C F+ F A+ D+ 32% 23% 45% D- D C F D- B A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A- F D 41% 27% 32% C- D+ F A C- C- F F F
1.15 50% 20% 45% +1 -1 1.02 31% 0.7 .22 16% .44 91% .40 1.04 41% 27% 54% 0 -1 1.00 38% 0.6 .24 21% .48 75% .36
Feb
2		 Bethune-Cookman F F F F F 59% 10% 31% A- F F+ F F D+ A+ B- A+ D- F A+ F F 49% 18% 33% F+ F A A+ A+ D+ F A+ D
0.85 38% 0% 20% -22 +3 0.63 25% 0.9 .23 16% .46 75% .35 1.10 72% 22% 41% +8 +1 1.20 19% 0.7 .14 16% .46 54% .25
Feb
7		 Southern D+ F F A+ F 35% 37% 28% F F D- A+ C A+ A+ F A- F D- D F+ F 45% 20% 35% F F F B F D- D- F+ F+
1.04 44% 24% 46% -5 -2 0.87 26% 1.4 .35 12% .51 66% .33 1.24 65% 40% 39% +6 +1 1.16 43% 0.9 .40 14% .37 76% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Grambling St. D F C+ B D- 45% 18% 36% C D- F+ D+ F+ D+ A+ D+ A A- B A+ A+ A+ 40% 11% 49% F+ A+ C+ D- C- D- F F F
0.99 45% 38% 38% -4 +1 0.95 25% 1.0 .25 21% .46 71% .32 0.87 50% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.67 26% 1.1 .29 18% .49 89% .44
Feb
14		 Mississippi Valley D- F A+ D- D- 41% 23% 36% D+ D- F A+ D B- A+ D+ A+ F B+ A F D 41% 39% 20% D- D D+ C C- D- F C- F
1.13 50% 60% 31% 0 0 1.02 28% 1.5 .41 16% .54 72% .39 1.02 47% 28% 56% -2 -2 0.93 26% 0.9 .23 17% .40 71% .28
Feb
16		 Arkansas Pine Bluff B C+ D A+ A 39% 22% 39% D+ A- D C D C- A+ A+ A+ D- C+ A+ F C 44% 18% 38% F+ C- F A+ C F C+ C C+
1.29 63% 33% 50% +10 0 1.22 30% 1.1 .35 16% .60 88% .52 1.10 55% 11% 42% -2 +1 1.00 36% 0.7 .24 11% .28 75% .21
Feb
19		 Florida A&M D- C D- A C- 45% 27% 27% D C- F A+ D D D- A+ D+ C+ B- A F+ D 31% 16% 53% D D C- A B D A+ D- A+
1.00 60% 33% 42% +3 0 1.07 13% 2.0 .25 21% .28 86% .24 0.97 53% 25% 38% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.6 .17 19% .14 71% .10
Feb
21		 Bethune-Cookman B- B- D+ F C- 46% 31% 22% F+ D+ B F D+ B- A+ B A+ F D F F F 45% 20% 35% D+ F F+ F F C- D A C
1.12 60% 35% 25% -3 -1 0.94 38% 0.9 .32 13% .43 76% .32 1.26 64% 50% 53% +15 0 1.33 33% 1.4 .48 18% .36 60% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 2.2 2.2 1st
2nd 0.3 17.0 17.5 34.8 2nd
3rd 4.1 19.3 23.4 3rd
4th 0.1 14.4 4.4 18.9 4th
5th 2.3 11.2 13.4 5th
6th 4.4 1.1 5.4 6th
7th 1.7 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 8.6 31.1 40.8 19.6 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 11.0% 2.2    0.9 1.0 0.2
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.9 1.0 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 19.6% 13.2% 13.2% 16.0 0.1 2.5 17.0
11-7 40.8% 11.7% 11.7% 16.0 0.0 4.8 36.0
10-8 31.1% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 2.6 28.4
9-9 8.6% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.5 8.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 16.0 89.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 16.0 3.3 96.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.5%
Lose Out 5.7%