Alabama A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.9 #303
Expected Predictive Rating -6.3 #260
Pace 64.4 #305
Improvement -2.6 #309

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #298 D- C- C C D
Defense #273 D- C C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #209 0.96 #346 -4.4 #317
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #66 0.70 #254 +1.6 #94
Three Pointers 36% #287 1.00 #203 -2.8 #279
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #327 -5.6 #327
Freethrows 17.9 #156 73% #160 13.1 #153
Second Chance 28.0% #258 1.03 #208 0.29 #252
Turnovers 16.9% #198
Total Offense -4.6 #298

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #135 1.28 #318 -3.6 #297
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #193 0.73 #153 +0.3 #167
Three Pointers 40% #217 1.11 #299 -1.2 #228
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #314 -4.5 #314
Freethrows 18.5 #244 67% #21 12.4 #184
Second Chance 30.8% #183 1.06 #214 0.33 #194
Turnovers 16.2% #202
Total Defense -3.3 #273

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.7% #292 0.4% #202
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.4% #320 8.3% #321
Possession Length 18.5 #306 16.9 #124
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #274 0.21 #288
Improvement +1.1 #110 -3.7 #349

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 10.5% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 48.9% 55.1% 29.6%
.500 or above in Conference 71.1% 77.4% 51.5%
Conference Champion 13.2% 15.5% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four7.5% 8.1% 5.9%
First Round5.5% 6.1% 3.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 75.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 20 - 5
Quad 414 - 1015 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 25 @Indiana L 51 - 98 2%  -31  0 - 1 -28 -14 D- F B -14 F B- B-
 Thu, Nov 13 225 Charleston Southern W 68 - 64 45%  +5  1 - 1 -3 -7 F A+ F +4 B- D A+
 Sun, Nov 16 240 Lindenwood W 74 - 65 48%  +2  2 - 1 +2 +2 B- C D- +0 C B- B+
 Fri, Nov 28 39 @Clemson L 56 - 92 2%  -25  2 - 2 -20 -8 C F B- -11 D- F B
 Sun, Nov 30 270 @Coastal Carolina L 60 - 67 33%  -6  2 - 3 -10 -11 F F D +0 B C+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 219 Tennessee St. W 80 - 53 43%  +9  3 - 3 +21 +11 A+ B F +12 A+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 177 @Lipscomb L 58 - 92 18%  -13  3 - 4 -32 -9 F F C -25 F F F
 Mon, Dec 15 293 North Alabama W 68 - 60 60%  +0  4 - 4 -2 -5 F C A +3 F A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 71 Mississippi L 66 - 80 8%  -13  4 - 5 -6 +3 B- C B- -10 F D+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 273 Chattanooga L 66 - 73 56%  -4  4 - 6 -16 -6 F F A- -11 F D F
 Sat, Jan 3 327 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 83 - 95 48%  -4  4 - 7 0 - 1 -19 +13 D- A+ C- -34 F F F
 Mon, Jan 5 365 @Mississippi Valley W 71 - 51 89%  +12  5 - 7 1 - 1 -1 -9 F D F +8 B+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 10 346 Alcorn St. W 77 - 70 75% 
 Mon, Jan 12 342 Jackson St. W 76 - 69 74% 
 Sat, Jan 17 301 @Alabama St. L 71 - 74 39% 
 Sat, Jan 24 335 @Texas Southern L 71 - 72 50% 
 Mon, Jan 26 306 @Prairie View L 74 - 76 41% 
 Sat, Jan 31 345 Florida A&M W 75 - 68 73% 
 Mon, Feb 2 278 Bethune-Cookman W 74 - 72 57% 
 Sat, Feb 7 256 @Southern L 71 - 76 31% 
 Mon, Feb 9 246 @Grambling St. L 66 - 72 29% 
 Sat, Feb 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 77 - 58 96% 
 Mon, Feb 16 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79 - 73 69% 
 Thu, Feb 19 345 @Florida A&M W 72 - 71 53% 
 Sat, Feb 21 278 @Bethune-Cookman L 71 - 75 35% 
 Sat, Feb 28 301 Alabama St. W 74 - 71 60% 
 Tue, Mar 3 246 Grambling St. L 68 - 69 49% 
 Thu, Mar 5 256 Southern W 74 - 73 52% 
Totals 14 - 14 10 - 8 -8 -5 D- C- C -3 D- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.6 4.8 3.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 13.2 1st
2nd 0.2 3.2 5.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 6.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.4 4.1 0.3 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 4.0 5.4 0.6 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 6.5 1.6 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.6 3.1 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.4 0.5 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 3.5 1.3 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.4 0.1 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 4.7 8.4 12.3 15.1 16.3 14.9 11.0 7.8 4.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 96.9% 1.4    1.3 0.1
14-4 87.8% 3.5    2.6 0.8 0.1
13-5 62.0% 4.8    2.2 2.2 0.4 0.1
12-6 23.3% 2.6    0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0
11-7 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 7.1 4.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.5% 23.2% 23.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.4% 25.8% 25.8% 15.6 0.2 0.2 1.1
14-4 4.0% 24.4% 24.4% 15.9 0.1 0.9 3.0
13-5 7.8% 19.6% 19.6% 15.9 0.1 1.4 6.3
12-6 11.0% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6 9.3
11-7 14.9% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9 13.1
10-8 16.3% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.0 1.6 14.8
9-9 15.1% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 1.1 14.0
8-10 12.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.4 11.9
7-11 8.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.3
6-12 4.7% 4.7
5-13 2.4% 2.4
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 15.9 90.3 0.0%