Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.9 329
Results Rating -7.2 279
Pace 72.7 71
Improvement -0.3 197

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 289 D+ D- D+ C D+
Defense D- 336 D+ F+ D+ F+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 238 C- 55% 246 -2.1 262
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 144 D+ 35% 262 +1.1 116
Three Pointers 38% 238 C 34% 164 -1.2 224
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 282 C- -1.5 228
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.98 250
Second Chance D 25.4% 318 D 0.93 317 D- 0.23 335
Turnovers D+ 18.3% 285
Freethrows C 0.30 192 B- 75% 113 C 0.23 152
Total Offense D+ -4.5 289

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 222 C 10.6% 156
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 81 C+ 4.1% 115
Three Pointers C+ 87% 125 C+ 0.7% 138
Total C 56% 177 C+ 5.2% 133

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 114 D+ 61% 276 +3.0 284
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 310 C- 39% 230 -1.4 79
Three Pointers 42% 131 C 34% 173 +0.5 209
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 307 C- +1.3 233
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.06 245
Second Chance D- 35.6% 342 D 1.14 322 F+ 0.41 353
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 265
Freethrows D- 0.37 338 D- 76% 343 F+ 0.28 352
Total Defense D- -6.4 336

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 58% 343 C 10.7% 184
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 264 C- 3.8% 247
Three Pointers D 89% 317 C- 0.7% 211
Total D- 63% 332 C- 5.3% 196

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 104 17.1 147
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 253 0.12 40
Improvement +1.2 #125 -1.4 #269

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 342 327 312
Results Rating Rank 313 291 259
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 6% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 2% 2% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four6% 6% 4%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 21 - 11 - 7
Quad 30 - 31 - 10
Quad 411 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 48 @Washington L 50 - 94 2% -21  0% 0 - 1 F -30 F -21 F F F D- -7 C- F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 220 @Portland L 74 - 83 16% -10  4% 0 - 2 D -9 F -12 F C- F B +4 C+ B B+
 Sat, Nov 8 148 @Loyola Marymount L 72 - 94 10% -9  8% 0 - 3 F -18 C- -1 B- D+ D F -18 F C F
 Tue, Nov 11 52 @Oklahoma L 69 - 95 2% -9  6% 0 - 4 D- -13 D+ -3 D+ C F F+ -9 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 16 @Vanderbilt L 75 - 104 1% -14  0% 0 - 5 D+ -7 B- +5 B D B F -10 A- F F+
 Tue, Nov 18 31 @SMU L 60 - 106 1% -24  1% 0 - 6 F -28 F -18 D- F D- D+ -4 D- A- C+
 Thu, Nov 20 176 @Marshall L 70 - 98 12% -5  41% 0 - 7 F -26 F -13 F D- F+ F -11 F A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 23 83 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 111 4% -16  9% 0 - 8 F+ -17 C- -1 F A A- F -12 F C F+
 Wed, Dec 3 109 @Illinois-Chicago W 63 - 62 6% +5  86% 1 - 8 B- +8 F+ -9 C C- C A+ +17 A+ B A
 Sat, Dec 6 93 @DePaul L 72 - 76 4% +1  51% 1 - 9 B- +5 C -0 A F D- B+ +5 A+ D F
 Wed, Dec 10 76 @Tulsa L 84 - 117 3% -16  6% 1 - 10 F -22 C+ +2 B+ C+ F+ F -21 F F D
 Sat, Jan 3 310 Alabama A&M W 95 - 83 53% +4  51% 2 - 10 1 - 0 C +0 A+ +23 A A+ C F -22 C- F D+
 Mon, Jan 5 312 Alabama St. W 90 - 79 55% +6  86% 3 - 10 2 - 0 C -1 B- +5 B- D D- D- -7 D+ C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 305 @Texas Southern W 74 - 66 30% +8  85% 4 - 10 3 - 0 C+ +2 D+ -3 B- F B- B+ +6 A C D+
 Mon, Jan 12 331 @Prairie View L 61 - 73 40% -6  10% 4 - 11 3 - 1 F -20 F -17 F F D C- -3 D- C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 328 Florida A&M L 67 - 71 61% -1  27% 4 - 12 3 - 2 F -18 F+ -8 F+ B- D+ F -10 F F B+
 Mon, Jan 19 240 Bethune-Cookman L 82 - 87 OT 36% +2  52% 4 - 13 3 - 3 D- -12 D -4 B- F+ F D- -7 B F B+
 Sat, Jan 24 258 @Southern W 75 - 74 21% -2  21% 5 - 13 4 - 3 C -2 C -0 D- C- B- C -1 B F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 365 @Mississippi Valley W 78 - 70 81% +7  91% 6 - 13 5 - 3 D- -12 D- -6 F F B- D -6 F+ D- C
 Wed, Feb 4 296 @Grambling St. W 67 - 64 28% +4  75% 7 - 13 6 - 3 C- -2 D -5 F C+ C B- +3 A- D- D-
 Sat, Feb 7 345 Alcorn St. W 84 - 77 67% +10  99% 8 - 13 7 - 3 D -9 B +6 A C+ F F -14 F F+ F+
 Mon, Feb 9 337 Jackson St. W 84 - 63 65% +10  82% 9 - 13 8 - 3 B- +6 B +6 A- F+ A C+ +1 A F C-
 Sat, Feb 14 312 @Alabama St. L 61 - 79 33% -7  9% 9 - 14 8 - 4 F -24 F -18 D F F D -6 D- B- D-
 Mon, Feb 16 310 @Alabama A&M L 70 - 82 31% -4  11% 9 - 15 8 - 5 F -18 C- -1 D- D- A F -18 F F+ D+
 Thu, Feb 19 305 Texas Southern L 64 - 83 53% -2  34% 9 - 16 8 - 6 F -31 F -15 D F D+ F -16 F F F
 Sat, Feb 21 331 Prairie View W 84 - 82 63% +3  72% 10 - 16 9 - 6 D- -12 B- +5 B+ D+ A- F -17 D F A
 Sat, Feb 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 82 - 67 92%
 Tue, Mar 3 337 @Jackson St. L 80 - 82 43%
 Thu, Mar 5 345 @Alcorn St. L 77 - 78 45%
Totals 12 - 17 11 - 7 -11 D+ -4 B- C- D+ D- -6 C B- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- D+ C C- 37% 41% 38% D+ D+ D D D- D+ C B- C D- D+ C- C C- 41% 16% 42% D D+ D- D F+ D+ D- D- F+
1.02 55% 35% 34% -2 -1 0.98 25% 0.9 .23 18% .30 75% .23 1.18 61% 39% 34% +1 +1 1.06 36% 1.1 .41 15% .37 76% .23
Nov
3		 Washington F F F D- F 20% 33% 46% D- F B F F F D D+ D D- F+ A+ F C- 29% 21% 50% C- C- F B- F A- F B- F
0.68 45% 17% 28% -14 -3 0.69 31% 0.4 .12 22% .21 67% .14 1.28 71% 20% 42% +6 -1 1.13 52% 1.1 .55 19% .56 73% .41
Nov
6		 Portland F D- F D- F 36% 18% 46% C F F+ A+ C- F A+ A+ A+ B D- D+ A+ B 42% 9% 49% F+ C+ A- D+ B B+ F D F
0.90 50% 11% 30% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.3 .32 23% .43 89% .38 1.01 68% 40% 23% -4 +2 0.98 23% 1.3 .29 23% .50 78% .39
Nov
8		 Loyola Marymount C- B+ C D+ B 40% 30% 30% C- B- C+ F+ D+ D F A+ D+ F F A+ F F 23% 11% 66% D- F D B+ C F F A+ F+
1.02 62% 38% 31% 0 -1 1.00 33% 0.8 .28 18% .19 100% .19 1.33 83% 0% 49% +16 0 1.34 31% 0.9 .28 8% .43 57% .25
Nov
11		 Oklahoma D+ D+ D- C- D+ 31% 30% 39% D D+ B F+ C F C A C+ F+ C C+ D+ C 38% 10% 52% D- C F C- F C- F C F+
0.99 53% 31% 33% -4 -2 0.91 36% 0.9 .31 22% .27 80% .22 1.36 60% 40% 37% +3 +1 1.12 53% 1.3 .69 13% .39 75% .30
Nov
15		 Vanderbilt B- F C+ A+ B 31% 25% 43% C- B D- D+ D B A C- A F C- C+ A- A 34% 14% 52% C- A- F F F F+ F B- F
1.01 38% 38% 41% -2 -1 0.96 21% 0.9 .18 17% .42 73% .31 1.40 65% 38% 30% -1 +1 1.02 49% 1.5 .72 9% .49 76% .37
Nov
18		 SMU F A+ F F F+ 39% 23% 39% B- D- D+ F F D- B- F D+ D+ F C- F F+ 36% 19% 46% D D- A C+ A- C+ F C- F
0.75 73% 15% 18% -9 0 0.84 26% 0.2 .04 21% .28 56% .16 1.32 76% 45% 44% +15 0 1.32 30% 1.0 .30 15% .38 77% .29
Nov
20		 Marshall F B+ C- F F+ 17% 50% 33% F F F+ C- D- F+ A- B+ A F F B- F F 32% 26% 42% C F B A+ A+ D- F+ F F
0.91 67% 35% 24% -5 -5 0.81 26% 0.9 .23 21% .43 77% .33 1.28 78% 33% 54% +18 -1 1.35 28% 0.6 .16 14% .32 81% .26
Nov
23		 Miami (OH) C- F C- F+ F 44% 21% 34% B- F D A+ A A- A A A+ F D+ C- F F 56% 9% 35% F F C C+ C F+ F F F
1.03 41% 38% 29% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.6 .38 13% .35 84% .30 1.36 66% 40% 50% +13 +3 1.33 24% 1.1 .28 11% .44 88% .39
Dec
3		 Illinois-Chicago F+ B- F C C 46% 18% 36% B- C D- B+ C- C F F F A+ A B A+ A+ 61% 12% 27% F A+ D A B A F C F
0.87 61% 11% 33% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.1 .31 21% .21 50% .11 0.86 43% 33% 15% -17 +3 0.73 40% 0.8 .33 24% .40 73% .29
Dec
6		 DePaul C C- A+ A A+ 31% 33% 35% D- A F D- F D- F A+ F B+ A- A A+ A+ 49% 16% 36% F A+ A F D F F C- F
0.97 53% 56% 42% +9 -2 1.15 17% 0.8 .14 23% .12 86% .11 1.03 50% 29% 13% -17 +1 0.71 24% 1.7 .41 9% .61 71% .43
Dec
10		 Tulsa C+ A+ D+ F+ B+ 39% 17% 44% C+ B+ C- A- C+ F+ A- A+ A+ F D B F F 49% 5% 45% D- F D- F F D F D F
1.09 81% 33% 29% +5 +1 1.13 24% 1.3 .31 19% .34 86% .29 1.51 63% 33% 48% +12 +3 1.31 37% 1.8 .67 13% .55 84% .46
Jan
3		 Alabama A&M A+ B- C+ A+ A+ 40% 27% 33% D- A A+ A A+ C A+ A+ A+ F D B- A+ C 44% 20% 36% F+ C- F D F D+ F F F
1.49 63% 38% 56% +13 -1 1.27 54% 1.2 .65 16% .48 81% .39 1.30 60% 33% 25% -5 +1 0.93 56% 1.1 .63 16% .52 82% .43
Jan
5		 Alabama St. B- F A+ A+ B- 48% 16% 36% B- B- B- F D D- A+ A A+ D- C- B- C D+ 41% 27% 32% C D+ A- F C D- F D F
1.20 33% 71% 56% +6 +1 1.16 38% 0.8 .31 21% .70 83% .58 1.05 57% 33% 33% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 15% .41 73% .30
Jan
10		 Texas Southern D+ A F B- B- 44% 18% 38% C B- F F F B- F D+ F B+ B C+ A+ A+ 52% 21% 27% F A C- B- C D+ F C F
1.07 73% 22% 37% +5 +1 1.14 23% 0.9 .19 14% .27 69% .19 0.95 52% 36% 14% -12 +1 0.81 27% 1.0 .27 16% .39 70% .27
Jan
12		 Prairie View F F F F+ F 35% 23% 42% D F D- F F D B F D+ C- A D- F F+ 33% 38% 29% B D- F A+ C- F F A+ D-
0.88 41% 18% 30% -13 -1 0.75 30% 0.8 .25 20% .42 61% .25 1.05 44% 44% 43% +2 -3 1.00 31% 0.8 .26 10% .50 61% .30
Jan
17		 Florida A&M F+ B D- F+ D- 33% 28% 40% F F+ F A+ B- D+ B- A B+ F F A+ C F 38% 19% 43% D F F F F B+ F C F
1.02 64% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.95 18% 2.0 .36 20% .36 84% .30 1.08 81% 13% 33% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .38 24% .48 67% .32
Jan
19		 Bethune-Cookman D C A C B 46% 24% 30% D+ B- F+ C- F+ F A+ D+ A+ D- B- A+ A+ A 61% 13% 26% F B F F F B+ F D- F
1.04 57% 50% 33% +2 0 1.06 24% 1.1 .26 22% .48 70% .34 1.10 54% 17% 25% -9 +3 0.89 42% 1.3 .53 22% .66 73% .48
Jan
24		 Southern C F+ C C F+ 31% 18% 51% C D- F A+ C- B- A+ D A C F D+ A+ B 30% 28% 41% B- B F F F B- F F F
1.08 50% 38% 35% -2 0 0.98 19% 1.8 .34 17% .49 71% .35 1.07 71% 38% 16% -7 -2 0.85 42% 1.4 .58 19% .46 77% .36
Jan
31		 Mississippi Valley D- C- F A D- 37% 37% 26% F F F D- F B- A+ D A+ D D+ F A+ F+ 38% 42% 20% D+ F+ A- F D- C F F F
1.10 59% 29% 42% 0 -2 0.98 26% 1.1 .29 15% .56 71% .40 0.98 59% 47% 22% +1 -3 0.98 17% 1.6 .28 21% .50 79% .39
Feb
4		 Grambling St. D D+ F F+ F 39% 24% 37% D- F D- A+ C+ C B C- B- B- D F A+ A 40% 19% 40% D+ A- F C+ D- D- B+ C B+
0.99 56% 27% 29% -6 0 0.89 26% 1.4 .38 19% .38 71% .27 0.95 62% 50% 10% -11 0 0.81 37% 0.9 .34 18% .27 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Alcorn St. B D+ A A+ A 45% 14% 40% C A C- B+ C+ F A+ A- A+ F C+ C+ F F 40% 24% 36% C- F B+ F F+ F+ C+ F D+
1.27 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.31 36% 1.3 .48 23% .47 79% .37 1.16 55% 33% 50% +6 0 1.14 21% 1.5 .32 15% .23 85% .20
Feb
9		 Jackson St. B D A+ A+ A 37% 27% 37% D- A- D- F+ F+ A C+ A B C+ A+ D A+ A- 18% 37% 45% A+ A F F F C- C- A+ B-
1.28 56% 54% 50% +12 -1 1.24 30% 0.9 .27 11% .36 81% .29 0.96 33% 42% 22% -11 -4 0.73 37% 1.3 .49 18% .28 67% .19
Feb
14		 Alabama St. F B F C- D 29% 20% 51% D D F F F F A+ D+ A+ D D- D B+ D- 49% 19% 32% F D- F A+ B- D- D- F F
0.84 67% 25% 33% -1 -1 1.00 23% 0.3 .07 30% .50 72% .36 1.09 62% 40% 29% 0 +1 1.04 41% 0.6 .23 15% .34 86% .29
Feb
16		 Alabama A&M C- D F A D- 44% 18% 38% C D- B- F D- A D B D+ F D- B- F F 39% 22% 39% D F F+ D- F+ D+ F F F
1.10 55% 11% 42% -2 +1 1.00 36% 0.7 .24 11% .28 75% .21 1.29 63% 33% 50% +10 0 1.22 30% 1.1 .35 16% .60 88% .52
Feb
19		 Texas Southern F F+ C B- D+ 26% 21% 53% F+ D D- F F D+ B+ F C F D+ F D F 33% 22% 45% C- F B- F F F A+ F A
0.94 50% 40% 36% 0 -1 1.00 27% 0.4 .10 18% .43 63% .27 1.21 61% 58% 36% +7 -1 1.15 23% 1.7 .39 12% .15 89% .13
Feb
21		 Prairie View B- A+ A+ F+ A- 39% 20% 41% C- B+ F A+ D+ A- D+ C+ C- F C F A+ D 36% 30% 34% D+ D F F F A F F F
1.24 79% 60% 30% +10 0 1.22 24% 1.5 .36 15% .35 75% .26 1.21 56% 62% 20% -1 -1 0.98 37% 1.4 .52 21% .52 89% .46



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.5 1.5 1st
2nd 0.3 16.5 15.0 31.8 2nd
3rd 4.6 25.8 1.9 32.3 3rd
4th 0.0 14.4 3.5 17.9 4th
5th 0.5 11.6 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 1.6 2.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.5 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.7 33.0 45.9 18.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 8.3% 1.5    0.5 0.9 0.2
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.5 0.9 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 18.5% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 1.4 17.1
11-7 45.9% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 2.8 43.1
10-8 33.0% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 1.4 31.5
9-9 2.7% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 2.5
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 16.0 94.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.3%
Lose Out 1.8%