Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.4 #327
Expected Predictive Rating -3.5 #226
Pace 79.1 #17
Improvement +5.8 #2

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #280 C D D C C-
Defense #345 D+ D- D F D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 1.12 #225 -0.1 #186
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #110 0.73 #211 +1.0 #125
Three Pointers 37% #275 1.03 #159 -1.9 #256
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #201 -1.1 #201
Freethrows 16.2 #243 78% #31 12.7 #173
Second Chance 28.0% #261 0.92 #312 0.26 #297
Turnovers 18.7% #298
Total Offense -4.0 #280

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #100 1.21 #249 -2.9 #276
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #330 0.61 #21 +3.2 #6
Three Pointers 44% #113 1.08 #272 -2.7 #291
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #262 -2.4 #262
Freethrows 22.4 #349 76% #302 16.9 #13
Second Chance 34.4% #303 1.12 #282 0.39 #317
Turnovers 14.6% #297
Total Defense -6.5 #345

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #236 1.9% #337
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #192 2.8% #234
Possession Length 16.1 #74 16.2 #35
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #105 0.13 #55
Improvement +5.5 #3 +0.3 #165

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 6.3% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 9.5% 16.2% 5.0%
.500 or above in Conference 67.8% 83.0% 57.5%
Conference Champion 8.0% 13.5% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four4.3% 5.3% 3.6%
First Round2.3% 3.1% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Away) - 40.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 31 - 31 - 11
Quad 411 - 812 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 47 @Washington L 50 - 94 2%  -21  0 - 1 -30 -19 F F F -10 D- F A
 Thu, Nov 6 238 @Portland L 74 - 83 19%  -14  0 - 2 -10 -10 F C- F +1 B- B+ B
 Sat, Nov 8 122 @Loyola Marymount L 72 - 94 8%  -9  0 - 3 -17 +3 A- F D -20 F C+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 48 @Oklahoma L 69 - 95 2%  -10  0 - 4 -12 +1 D D+ F -13 C- F C
 Sat, Nov 15 7 @Vanderbilt L 75 - 104 1%  -16  0 - 5 -6 +8 B- D+ C+ -12 A+ F F
 Tue, Nov 18 28 @SMU L 60 - 106 1%  -25  0 - 6 -29 -15 D F D- -8 F A C
 Thu, Nov 20 159 @Marshall L 70 - 98 11%  -5  0 - 7 -25 -8 F D+ F -15 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 93 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 111 5%  -20  0 - 8 -18 +2 F C- A- -16 F C F
 Wed, Dec 3 184 @Illinois-Chicago W 63 - 62 14%  +5  1 - 8 +2 -10 C- D D +13 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 102 @DePaul L 72 - 76 5%  +1  1 - 9 +4 +2 A+ F F +2 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 10 81 @Tulsa L 84 - 117 4%  -16  1 - 10 -23 +5 A+ C- F -25 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 303 Alabama A&M W 95 - 83 52%  +4  2 - 10 1 - 0 +1 +27 A+ A+ C+ -24 D+ F D+
 Mon, Jan 5 301 Alabama St. W 90 - 79 52%  +6  3 - 10 2 - 0 +0 +4 C+ D- F -5 C C D
 Sat, Jan 10 335 @Texas Southern L 80 - 83 41% 
 Mon, Jan 12 306 @Prairie View L 83 - 88 33% 
 Sat, Jan 17 345 Florida A&M W 83 - 79 66% 
 Mon, Jan 19 278 Bethune-Cookman L 82 - 83 47% 
 Sat, Jan 24 256 @Southern L 79 - 87 23% 
 Mon, Jan 26 246 @Grambling St. L 73 - 82 21% 
 Sat, Jan 31 365 @Mississippi Valley W 83 - 72 84% 
 Sat, Feb 7 346 Alcorn St. W 86 - 81 67% 
 Mon, Feb 9 342 Jackson St. W 84 - 80 65% 
 Sat, Feb 14 301 @Alabama St. L 80 - 86 30% 
 Mon, Feb 16 303 @Alabama A&M L 73 - 79 31% 
 Sat, Feb 21 335 Texas Southern W 83 - 80 62% 
 Sat, Feb 21 306 Prairie View W 86 - 85 54% 
 Sat, Feb 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 69 94% 
 Tue, Mar 3 342 @Jackson St. L 81 - 83 44% 
 Thu, Mar 5 346 @Alcorn St. L 83 - 84 45% 
Totals 11 - 18 10 - 7 -10 -4 C D D -6 D+ D- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.0 3.0 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.0 1st
2nd 0.2 3.0 5.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 6.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.7 4.1 0.4 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.2 4.7 5.9 0.7 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 7.5 1.8 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 5.7 4.2 0.2 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.0 0.6 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.1 1.3 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 1.8 0.1 5.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.4 9.8 14.1 17.9 17.2 14.2 9.9 5.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-3 95.5% 0.7    0.6 0.1
14-4 83.7% 1.9    1.3 0.5 0.1
13-5 54.2% 3.0    1.1 1.3 0.4 0.1
12-6 19.8% 2.0    0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 3.6 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.2% 23.7% 23.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.8% 20.0% 20.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6
14-4 2.2% 18.3% 18.3% 15.9 0.0 0.4 1.8
13-5 5.4% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6 4.8
12-6 9.9% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9 9.0
11-7 14.2% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 1.0 13.2
10-8 17.2% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.9 16.3
9-9 17.9% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.7 17.2
8-10 14.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 13.9
7-11 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.8
6-12 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.4
5-13 2.2% 2.2
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 16.0 95.1 0.0%