Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.0 #126
Expected Predictive Rating +4.3 #108
Pace 79.4 #13
Improvement +2.4 #63

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #120 C- A D B- C+
Defense #149 C- B+ D- C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #212 1.20 #128 +0.1 #175
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #265 0.69 #266 -2.1 #279
Three Pointers 46% #78 0.92 #295 +0.5 #164
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #215 -1.5 #215
Freethrows 18.3 #137 76% #74 13.9 #103
Second Chance 37.3% #27 1.18 #45 0.44 #26
Turnovers 18.7% #300
Total Offense +1.7 #120

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #225 1.22 #260 -0.3 #195
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #71 0.76 #190 -1.6 #287
Three Pointers 39% #252 1.08 #278 -0.1 #183
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #242 -2.0 #243
Freethrows 18.0 #218 69% #58 12.5 #176
Second Chance 25.6% #32 1.01 #154 0.26 #46
Turnovers 14.3% #311
Total Defense +0.3 #149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #128 -1.2% #81
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.9% #234 5.1% #275
Possession Length 14.9 #21 17.1 #160
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #144 0.19 #248
Improvement +1.4 #93 +1.1 #109

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.2% 30.3% 22.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 99.5% 99.7% 98.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.4% 96.8%
Conference Champion 43.8% 47.2% 24.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round29.2% 30.3% 22.2%
Second Round1.9% 2.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 85.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 38 - 38 - 7
Quad 413 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 170 @Ohio W 89 - 85 50%  -2  1 - 0 +6 +11 C A+ F -5 D- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 112 @Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 90 32%  -16  1 - 1 -18 -6 F C F -11 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 192 @Missouri St. W 86 - 85 54%  -7  2 - 1 +2 +4 D A F -2 D+ B D+
 Wed, Nov 19 41 @St. Mary's L 72 - 85 11%  -7  2 - 2 +2 +8 C A+ C+ -5 D+ C- A-
 Fri, Nov 21 28 @SMU L 69 - 100 8%  -15  2 - 3 -14 -7 D- A+ F -3 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 208 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 63 76%  +7  3 - 3 +5 -4 C- D+ F +9 A+ B+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 146 North Dakota St. W 85 - 80 OT 65%  -1  4 - 3 +3 +1 D B A+ +1 C- A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 156 Texas Arlington W 83 - 63 69%  +10  5 - 3 +17 +9 B+ C D+ +7 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 6 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90 - 78 74%  +8  6 - 3 +7 +13 C A- B -6 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 245 @Rice L 76 - 77 64%  +7  6 - 4 -3 +3 B- F C -6 D B F
 Wed, Dec 17 268 @Texas St. W 89 - 70 69%  +8  7 - 4 1 - 0 +16 +12 A- A+ F +3 B- C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 201 @Southern Miss W 93 - 86 55%  +3  8 - 4 2 - 0 +8 +19 F A+ A+ -12 F C- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 204 James Madison L 74 - 78 76%  +2  8 - 5 2 - 1 -9 -5 F D B- -5 F A A+
 Wed, Jan 7 137 Troy W 86 - 74 63%  +10  9 - 5 3 - 1 +10 +7 B+ A- F +3 C+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 268 Texas St. W 82 - 71 85% 
 Thu, Jan 15 200 @South Alabama W 74 - 73 55% 
 Sat, Jan 17 137 @Troy L 77 - 80 40% 
 Thu, Jan 22 213 @Georgia Southern W 87 - 85 58% 
 Sat, Jan 24 304 @Georgia St. W 83 - 76 73% 
 Wed, Jan 28 250 Old Dominion W 86 - 76 83% 
 Sat, Jan 31 159 Marshall W 85 - 80 68% 
 Wed, Feb 4 270 @Coastal Carolina W 80 - 75 70% 
 Sat, Feb 7 132 Bowling Green W 82 - 79 62% 
 Wed, Feb 11 356 Louisiana Monroe W 95 - 76 96% 
 Sat, Feb 14 200 South Alabama W 77 - 70 75% 
 Thu, Feb 19 310 @Louisiana W 76 - 68 77% 
 Sat, Feb 21 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 92 - 79 88% 
 Tue, Feb 24 201 Southern Miss W 83 - 76 75% 
 Fri, Feb 27 310 Louisiana W 79 - 65 90% 
Totals 20 - 9 13 - 5 +2 +2 C- A D +0 C- B+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 4.8 12.4 14.7 8.9 2.4 43.8 1st
2nd 0.2 3.8 9.3 7.3 2.1 0.1 22.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.6 4.9 1.1 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.5 3.4 0.5 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 2.7 0.6 5.0 5th
6th 0.5 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.5 9.0 14.9 19.5 20.8 16.8 9.1 2.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.4    2.4 0.0
16-2 98.4% 8.9    8.2 0.7 0.0
15-3 87.4% 14.7    10.8 3.7 0.3
14-4 59.7% 12.4    5.6 5.3 1.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 24.5% 4.8    1.0 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.8% 43.8 28.0 11.8 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.4% 54.0% 54.0% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1
16-2 9.1% 48.6% 48.6% 12.8 0.0 1.5 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.7
15-3 16.8% 41.6% 41.6% 13.2 0.9 3.8 2.1 0.1 9.8
14-4 20.8% 35.3% 35.3% 13.5 0.5 3.2 3.4 0.4 13.5
13-5 19.5% 26.5% 26.5% 13.8 0.1 1.6 2.7 0.7 14.3
12-6 14.9% 17.6% 17.6% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.0 12.3
11-7 9.0% 10.2% 10.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.1
10-8 4.5% 6.0% 6.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.3
9-9 1.9% 2.8% 2.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
8-10 0.7% 4.4% 4.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.2% 29.2% 0.0% 13.4 70.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 11.8 0.5 28.9 62.4 7.1 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%