Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.9 143
Results Rating +0.2 156
Pace 77.3 17
Improvement +1.1 148

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 134 C B D- B- B-
Defense C 183 C C+ D+ C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 186 C 58% 163 +0.0 177
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 287 C- 36% 252 -2.3 292
Three Pointers 46% 72 C- 32% 251 +1.6 130
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 99 C- -1.3 218
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 193
Second Chance B+ 37.6% 19 C- 1.00 212 B 0.38 57
Turnovers D- 19.9% 337
Freethrows B- 0.33 100 B- 74% 117 B- 0.25 86
Total Offense C+ +1.3 134

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 47% 216 C 10.7% 163
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 238 F+ 9.4% 351
Three Pointers B+ 92% 24 B+ 0.2% 32
Total B- 59% 97 C 5.7% 198

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 245 D+ 61% 265 +0.0 182
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 135 C 38% 158 +0.3 219
Three Pointers 42% 151 C 34% 165 +0.2 189
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 121 C- +0.8 218
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 195
Second Chance B- 27.6% 77 C 1.05 212 C+ 0.29 113
Turnovers D+ 15.1% 283
Freethrows D+ 0.33 257 C 72% 176 C- 0.24 251
Total Defense C -0.4 183

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 54% 303 D 6.8% 330
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 210 C- 4.3% 206
Three Pointers C 84% 165 C- 0.6% 234
Total C- 58% 245 D 3.6% 325

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.1 17 17.5 230
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 123 0.17 193
Improvement +0.2 #172 +0.8 #137

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 169 145 126
Results Rating Rank 185 159 104
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 7 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14% 15% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round14% 15% 9%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 78.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 38 - 48 - 7
Quad 412 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 209 @Ohio W 89 - 85 52% -2  24% 1 - 0 C+ +4 B +7 C- A+ F C- -3 F+ A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 102 @Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 90 26% -16  0% 1 - 1 F+ -17 F+ -9 F C- D D- -7 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 204 @Missouri St. W 86 - 85 51% -7  15% 2 - 1 C +2 C +1 D- A- D- C+ +1 D+ B+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 40 @St. Mary's L 72 - 85 8% -7  4% 2 - 2 C+ +3 B +7 C A- C+ D+ -4 D+ D B
 Fri, Nov 21 31 @SMU L 69 - 100 7% -15  6% 2 - 3 D- -13 F -10 D A+ F C+ +1 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 196 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 63 72% +7  86% 3 - 3 B- +6 D- -6 D+ D- F A+ +12 A A B+
 Fri, Nov 28 129 North Dakota St. W 85 - 80 OT 57% -1  43% 4 - 3 C+ +4 C- -1 D- B- A B +5 C+ A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 180 Texas Arlington W 83 - 63 69% +10  78% 5 - 3 A- +16 B +6 B+ D+ D A +9 A+ D- F+
 Sat, Dec 6 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90 - 78 72% +8  97% 6 - 3 B- +7 A- +10 C+ A- B- D+ -3 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 232 @Rice L 76 - 77 57% +7  97% 6 - 4 C- -2 C- -1 B- D C C -1 C- B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 237 @Texas St. W 89 - 70 58% +8  91% 7 - 4 1 - 0 A +18 A- +11 A- A+ F B+ +6 B+ C+ F+
 Sat, Dec 20 241 @Southern Miss W 93 - 86 59% +3  60% 8 - 4 2 - 0 B- +6 A+ +17 F+ A+ A F -11 F D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 201 James Madison L 74 - 78 73% +2  65% 8 - 5 2 - 1 D -9 D- -6 D D B- C- -3 F A- A-
 Wed, Jan 7 152 Troy W 86 - 74 64% +10  86% 9 - 5 3 - 1 B +9 C+ +3 B- A- F B+ +5 C A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 237 Texas St. W 83 - 82 78% +5  94% 10 - 5 4 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -3 F C F+ D+ -3 D+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 182 @South Alabama L 87 - 91 OT 47% -0  44% 10 - 6 4 - 2 C- -2 C +0 C- B- F C- -2 C B F
 Sat, Jan 17 152 @Troy L 74 - 99 41% -9  16% 10 - 7 4 - 3 F -22 B- +4 F+ A- B+ F -27 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 266 @Georgia Southern W 85 - 68 65% +9  88% 11 - 7 5 - 3 B+ +14 C +1 A- F F A+ +12 A+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 24 289 @Georgia St. L 81 - 82 70% +3  64% 11 - 8 5 - 4 D+ -6 B+ +9 B+ C F F -15 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 242 Old Dominion L 71 - 75 79% -5  1% 11 - 9 5 - 5 D- -11 F -10 D D F C -1 C C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 176 Marshall L 61 - 70 68% -4  11% 11 - 10 5 - 6 D- -13 F -13 F D+ D C -1 C+ C B-
 Wed, Feb 4 236 @Coastal Carolina W 70 - 66 58% +0  46% 12 - 10 6 - 6 C+ +3 D+ -3 C D+ F B+ +6 C+ D A+
 Sat, Feb 7 166 Bowling Green W 91 - 54 66% +21  98% 13 - 10 A+ +34 A- +10 A+ A C+ A+ +21 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 11 353 Louisiana Monroe W 103 - 70 94% +15  99% 14 - 10 7 - 6 A- +16 A +12 B A C+ B- +2 C+ C+ C-
 Sat, Feb 14 182 South Alabama L 88 - 92 OT 70% +5  74% 14 - 11 7 - 7 D -8 B- +4 C B+ F F -12 B- F F
 Thu, Feb 19 291 @Louisiana W 79 - 62 70% +1  53% 15 - 11 8 - 7 B+ +12 B- +4 B+ B F A- +8 A- A F
 Sat, Feb 21 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 94 86% +6  89% 16 - 11 9 - 7 C- -3 A- +10 B- C C F -13 F F B-
 Tue, Feb 24 241 Southern Miss W 83 - 75 78%
 Fri, Feb 27 291 Louisiana W 78 - 67 86%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 7 +1 C+ +1 A+ C- B- C +0 C- B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C- C- C- 38% 28% 46% B- C B+ C- B D- B- B- B- C D+ C C C- 37% 22% 42% C+ C B- C C+ D+ D+ C C-
1.10 58% 36% 32% -1 +1 1.01 38% 1.0 .38 20% .33 74% .25 1.09 61% 38% 34% +1 0 1.03 28% 1.0 .29 15% .33 72% .24
Nov
3		 Ohio B F A+ C D+ 42% 4% 54% A C- A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C- D+ F C+ F+ 41% 17% 42% D- F+ A A+ A+ D C- C+ C
1.18 45% 100% 35% -2 +2 1.02 42% 1.6 .68 24% .49 89% .44 1.13 63% 70% 32% +6 +1 1.15 20% 0.6 .11 13% .34 68% .23
Nov
7		 Stephen F. Austin F+ F D- F F 41% 13% 46% B F D+ C+ C- D A+ B+ A+ D- A- F A- D+ 27% 29% 44% B C- F F F A+ F A+ C-
0.88 42% 33% 19% -17 +1 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 19% .55 79% .43 1.22 47% 69% 29% +3 -2 1.04 49% 1.4 .67 19% .32 53% .17
Nov
11		 Missouri St. C B A F D+ 19% 43% 38% F D- B A- A- D- A A- A+ C+ F D+ B D 31% 31% 38% B D+ A+ F B+ D F F F
1.08 70% 48% 25% +1 -4 0.96 36% 1.2 .44 20% .46 79% .36 1.07 75% 38% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 15% .55 73% .40
Nov
19		 St. Mary's B D D+ D- D+ 47% 10% 43% A C A+ C- A- C+ C- A+ C+ D+ C A+ F C- 51% 19% 30% D- D+ D D+ D B F B+ F
1.04 48% 33% 28% -9 +2 0.88 37% 0.9 .33 15% .22 85% .19 1.23 59% 13% 54% +5 +1 1.14 41% 1.2 .47 19% .59 76% .45
Nov
21		 SMU F A- A+ F D- 31% 20% 49% C+ D A+ C+ A+ F A- D+ B+ C+ F F D+ F 41% 27% 32% C F+ A- A+ A+ F A- A+ A+
0.86 67% 50% 17% -8 -1 0.86 54% 1.0 .54 40% .33 69% .23 1.25 81% 56% 38% +16 -1 1.33 31% 0.2 .05 10% .22 63% .14
Nov
24		 Jacksonville St. D- D F C+ D 39% 8% 53% B D+ D- D+ D- F A+ B- A+ A+ B+ F A+ A 38% 16% 46% B A D+ A+ A B+ F B- F
1.01 53% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 22% 1.0 .22 22% .51 79% .40 0.86 47% 75% 17% -10 +1 0.84 31% 0.6 .18 20% .50 66% .33
Nov
28		 North Dakota St. C- D- F C+ F+ 37% 10% 53% B+ D- C- A B- A A- A+ A+ B A+ C F C+ 34% 23% 43% C C+ A A+ A+ D+ F A- F
1.08 55% 17% 35% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 14% .33 91% .30 1.02 42% 38% 42% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.7 .18 15% .47 65% .30
Dec
2		 Texas Arlington B A+ C+ F B+ 40% 28% 32% C B+ A F D+ D A+ C A+ A B- A+ A+ A+ 45% 27% 29% B A+ C- F D- F+ F A+ C-
1.14 76% 40% 24% +3 -1 1.06 39% 0.7 .28 19% .50 72% .36 0.87 50% 23% 7% -19 0 0.63 36% 1.1 .40 17% .43 62% .26
Dec
6		 Arkansas Little Rock A- A+ F C- C+ 36% 7% 57% B- C+ C+ A+ A- B- F A+ F+ D+ F C F F 27% 38% 35% B+ F A+ F A+ F D A C-
1.26 80% 25% 34% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.2 .44 17% .15 100% .15 1.09 73% 33% 53% +12 -3 1.20 9% 1.3 .13 13% .27 59% .16
Dec
13		 Rice C- A+ C+ F B- 37% 33% 31% C- B- C+ F D C C F D- C B- A+ F C 35% 25% 40% D- C- A C B+ F F+ B D
1.10 83% 38% 27% +6 -2 1.10 34% 0.8 .26 16% .33 63% .21 1.12 53% 14% 45% -1 -1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 10% .37 65% .24
Dec
17		 Texas St. A- B+ F A+ A- 46% 13% 41% B- A- A+ A+ A+ F B B- B B+ A- C+ A- A- 53% 28% 19% D- B+ A F C+ F+ C- F+ D
1.23 67% 0% 53% +11 +2 1.26 44% 1.8 .80 26% .37 75% .28 0.97 47% 38% 27% -8 0 0.86 24% 1.1 .27 15% .29 83% .24
Dec
20		 Southern Miss A+ D F C F 43% 16% 41% B- F+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F F C+ F F 28% 40% 32% A F B F D+ F+ F F F
1.30 52% 13% 35% -6 +1 0.92 43% 1.6 .70 13% .53 82% .43 1.20 71% 35% 44% +7 -3 1.10 28% 1.3 .34 15% .44 93% .41
Jan
3		 James Madison D- A F F D- 35% 17% 48% C D A F D B- A F C C- F+ C F F 45% 23% 32% B- F B+ A A- A- F A F
1.04 68% 11% 27% -6 0 0.91 39% 0.6 .24 11% .43 59% .25 1.10 67% 36% 47% +10 0 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 21% .46 62% .29
Jan
7		 Troy C+ F A+ A- B 23% 19% 58% D+ B- B+ B A- F A+ B+ A+ B+ F A+ D+ D+ 30% 26% 44% A+ C A+ A+ A+ D+ C+ A+ B+
1.14 45% 56% 39% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 21% .49 76% .37 0.98 76% 13% 36% 0 -1 1.00 23% 0.7 .15 15% .28 61% .17
Jan
10		 Texas St. D+ B F F F 43% 13% 44% B- F A+ F C F+ A+ B+ A+ D+ F A- A+ D+ 44% 35% 20% B- D+ A F F B- D+ F D-
1.07 65% 14% 25% -6 +1 0.93 44% 0.6 .28 22% .53 78% .41 1.06 75% 32% 18% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.9 .47 21% .31 84% .26
Jan
15		 South Alabama C B D D- D+ 25% 5% 69% B- C- B C- B- F C+ A- B- C- D+ F A+ B- 51% 9% 40% F C A+ F B F F D- F
1.06 67% 33% 29% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 23% .24 80% .19 1.11 61% 67% 19% -5 +2 0.97 15% 1.5 .22 6% .39 70% .27
Jan
17		 Troy B- F A- B+ F 45% 12% 43% A- F+ B- A A- B+ A+ F C+ F F F D+ F 43% 2% 55% F+ F F F F F D- F F
1.11 32% 50% 38% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.3 .44 13% .38 55% .21 1.48 77% 100% 36% +11 +3 1.29 41% 1.5 .59 10% .35 90% .32
Jan
22		 Georgia Southern C D A+ A+ A- 47% 8% 45% B A- D F F F B- A- A- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 6% 51% D- A+ F+ F F C+ F A D
1.14 54% 75% 43% +7 +2 1.22 31% 0.7 .22 23% .40 83% .33 0.91 52% 0% 11% -22 +2 0.62 33% 1.3 .42 16% .42 65% .27
Jan
24		 Georgia St. B+ C A+ C+ B 51% 6% 43% A B+ A- D- C F A- A+ A+ F A+ F F F 20% 26% 54% C+ F A+ A+ A+ F F+ F F
1.20 58% 100% 35% +5 +3 1.17 41% 0.8 .34 21% .36 89% .32 1.22 40% 62% 44% +11 -2 1.20 13% 0.5 .07 10% .37 91% .33
Jan
28		 Old Dominion F A- F D+ D 32% 19% 49% C- D D+ D D F D- F F C C D+ B- C 32% 31% 37% B- C A+ F C+ F+ A- D- B
0.98 71% 10% 31% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .26 21% .30 65% .19 1.04 58% 39% 32% -1 -2 0.97 14% 1.8 .25 12% .22 79% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Marshall F B+ F F F 32% 11% 57% B+ F A- F D+ D A+ F A- C C B- F C 27% 38% 35% A C+ D B C B- D F+ D-
0.96 67% 20% 19% -13 +1 0.79 42% 0.7 .28 19% .49 64% .31 1.10 62% 33% 41% +3 -3 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 19% .29 80% .23
Feb
4		 Coastal Carolina D+ F F+ A+ C 33% 27% 41% C+ C A F D+ F A C A- B+ B F A- B- 28% 16% 56% F C+ D- D+ D A+ D- A C-
1.00 38% 31% 45% -2 -1 0.96 38% 0.7 .25 20% .37 71% .27 0.94 50% 50% 29% -5 0 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 23% .31 65% .20
Feb
7		 Bowling Green A- A+ F A+ A+ 37% 8% 56% B A+ A+ C+ A C+ C+ F D A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 40% 22% 38% A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C D-
1.21 74% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.27 41% 1.1 .44 17% .34 57% .19 0.72 59% 25% 10% -16 0 0.69 23% 0.1 .03 23% .38 73% .27
Feb
11		 Louisiana Monroe A B A+ B+ B 47% 5% 48% A- B A+ D+ A C+ C F F+ B- A+ B- D C+ 29% 23% 48% B C+ B- C C+ C- F A+ D
1.39 67% 67% 39% +9 +3 1.26 51% 1.1 .56 15% .25 50% .13 0.95 40% 33% 36% -5 -1 0.90 23% 1.0 .23 16% .42 62% .26
Feb
14		 South Alabama B- F D B C+ 14% 12% 75% D C A+ D- B+ F A+ F A+ F A A+ F C 21% 29% 50% A+ B- D- F F F D- F F
1.15 43% 33% 37% +1 -1 1.02 47% 1.0 .44 24% .51 67% .34 1.21 46% 17% 42% -3 -2 0.92 28% 1.5 .41 7% .36 77% .28
Feb
19		 Louisiana B- A A+ F A- 50% 17% 33% C+ B+ A+ D- B F A+ C- A+ A- A+ F+ A- A- 27% 37% 36% C+ A- C- A+ A F A- D+ B
1.15 71% 86% 21% +8 +1 1.21 45% 0.9 .41 26% .55 71% .39 0.90 31% 45% 29% -7 -3 0.81 27% 0.4 .12 4% .17 73% .12
Feb
21		 Louisiana Monroe A- F+ A- A+ B- 32% 8% 60% C+ B- C- C C C A+ A+ A+ F F A+ F+ F 40% 19% 40% D+ F F F F B- F C F
1.31 53% 50% 44% +8 +1 1.21 35% 1.2 .41 15% .47 84% .40 1.21 76% 20% 38% +6 0 1.15 39% 1.2 .48 19% .46 72% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.9 0.9 1st
2nd 7.9 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 22.1 22.2 3rd
4th 1.2 26.2 27.4 4th
5th 12.6 10.6 23.2 5th
6th 0.2 13.2 13.3 6th
7th 1.5 2.0 3.6 7th
8th 1.4 1.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 3.3 29.1 67.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.3% 0.9    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 67.6% 16.3% 16.3% 13.5 0.5 5.0 5.2 0.4 56.6
10-8 29.1% 8.7% 8.7% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 26.6
9-9 3.3% 5.7% 5.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.2
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 13.6 86.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.0% 100.0% 13.5 4.6 45.0 46.8 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.7%
Lose Out 1.3%