Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#93
Expected Predictive Rating+7.7#74
Pace71.5#94
Improvement+1.5#113

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#109
First Shot-0.1#180
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#33
Layup/Dunks+0.6#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#135
Freethrows+1.7#83
Improvement+3.1#35

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#82
First Shot+5.1#41
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#307
Layups/Dunks+3.0#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#20
Freethrows-2.4#332
Improvement-1.6#272
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.6% 39.7% 36.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 91.2% 95.7% 82.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round38.6% 39.7% 36.6%
Second Round6.2% 6.3% 5.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Away) - 64.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 13 - 2
Quad 37 - 410 - 6
Quad 415 - 125 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 100   Akron W 80-75 OT 64%     1 - 0 +7.2 -4.9 +11.4
  Nov 08, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 79-88 7%     1 - 1 +13.2 +0.5 +14.2
  Nov 12, 2024 227   Arkansas Little Rock W 80-63 87%     2 - 1 +11.0 +12.5 -0.7
  Nov 16, 2024 270   Stephen F. Austin W 59-49 91%     3 - 1 +1.4 -8.5 +10.6
  Nov 29, 2024 210   Indiana St. W 86-81 79%     4 - 1 +2.4 +5.8 -3.7
  Nov 30, 2024 192   Rice L 67-75 76%     4 - 2 -9.5 -5.9 -3.7
  Dec 01, 2024 174   Hofstra L 66-68 73%     4 - 3 -2.6 +0.4 -3.1
  Dec 05, 2024 284   Jackson St. W 66-64 91%     5 - 3 -7.2 -12.5 +5.1
  Dec 08, 2024 41   @ Memphis W 85-72 22%     6 - 3 +27.1 +8.0 +17.3
  Dec 12, 2024 200   Texas Arlington W 83-79 83%     7 - 3 -0.3 +4.9 -5.3
  Dec 15, 2024 96   @ UAB W 98-89 OT 44%     8 - 3 +16.4 +3.6 +10.8
  Dec 21, 2024 309   Coastal Carolina W 97-67 93%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +19.0 +23.0 -2.5
  Jan 02, 2025 275   @ Old Dominion W 78-59 82%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +15.2 +7.0 +8.9
  Jan 04, 2025 137   @ James Madison L 62-67 58%     10 - 4 2 - 1 -1.1 -7.4 +6.1
  Jan 09, 2025 156   @ South Alabama L 62-76 61%     10 - 5 2 - 2 -11.0 +3.5 -16.8
  Jan 11, 2025 111   @ Troy W 84-78 50%     11 - 5 3 - 2 +11.8 +21.3 -9.0
  Jan 16, 2025 301   Louisiana W 83-63 93%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +9.7 +7.6 +2.4
  Jan 18, 2025 278   Georgia St. W 85-59 91%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +17.0 +3.3 +13.0
  Jan 23, 2025 145   Appalachian St. W 65-55 76%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +8.7 -0.8 +10.2
  Jan 25, 2025 184   Texas St. W 80-65 82%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +11.2 +3.8 +7.6
  Jan 29, 2025 248   @ Southern Miss W 81-68 79%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +10.3 +7.0 +3.0
  Feb 01, 2025 184   @ Texas St. W 85-74 68%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +12.2 +12.7 -0.2
  Feb 05, 2025 182   @ Marshall W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 148   @ Kent St. W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 12, 2025 248   Southern Miss W 81-67 92%    
  Feb 15, 2025 111   Troy W 74-69 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 156   South Alabama W 71-63 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 328   Louisiana Monroe W 81-62 96%    
  Feb 26, 2025 301   @ Louisiana W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 28, 2025 328   @ Louisiana Monroe W 79-65 90%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.2 23.0 38.1 25.8 91.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.7 1.8 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 0.7 1.6 3rd
4th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.1 8.7 24.9 38.1 25.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 25.8    25.8
15-3 100.0% 38.1    36.9 1.2
14-4 92.6% 23.0    13.3 8.3 1.3 0.1
13-5 48.4% 4.2    0.6 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.0
12-6 6.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 91.2% 91.2 76.5 11.3 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 25.8% 43.9% 43.8% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 3.4 7.2 0.7 0.0 14.4 0.2%
15-3 38.1% 40.4% 40.4% 12.1 1.0 11.4 3.0 0.1 22.7
14-4 24.9% 36.1% 36.1% 12.4 0.1 5.5 3.1 0.2 15.9
13-5 8.7% 26.4% 26.4% 12.7 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.2 6.4
12-6 2.1% 26.4% 26.4% 12.8 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.6
11-7 0.5% 18.8% 18.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.6% 38.6% 0.0% 12.1 0.0 4.5 25.2 8.3 0.6 61.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.2% 100.0% 11.6 0.4 41.2 57.4 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.0% 0.3% 11.0 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.6% 0.6% 11.5 0.3 0.3