Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.2 #305
Expected Predictive Rating -7.6 #290
Pace 64.5 #296
Improvement -1.3 #246

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #126 B F+ C B- B
Defense #364 F D- D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #42 1.31 #41 +6.6 #14
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #316 0.73 #210 -2.7 #310
Three Pointers 42% #157 1.04 #136 +1.2 #137
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #53 +5.0 #52
Freethrows 0.31 #144 77% #25 0.24 #90
Second Chance 19.8% #363 1.05 #139 0.21 #355
Turnovers 16.4% #155
Total Offense +1.7 #126

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #328 1.40 #365 +0.0 #178
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #275 0.78 #229 +0.9 #117
Three Pointers 50% #6 1.22 #363 -10.0 #364
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #363 -9.1 #363
Freethrows 0.30 #186 72% #161 0.22 #176
Second Chance 35.1% #326 1.15 #322 0.40 #345
Turnovers 15.1% #273
Total Defense -9.9 #364

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #33 -0.2% #151
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.1% #69 18.0% #365
Possession Length 18.9 #331 16.6 #74
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #299 0.14 #93
Improvement +0.8 #135 -2.1 #294

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.0% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 1.2% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 18.5% 24.2% 6.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 3.2% 16.6%
First Four1.6% 1.7% 1.2%
First Round1.1% 1.3% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 410 - 911 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 34 @Georgia L 59 - 104 2% -18  0 - 1 -28 -12 C+ F F -12 D- B+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 92 @Kansas St. L 71 - 98 6% -11  0 - 2 -18 +1 C- B- C -19 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 200 Wofford L 86 - 94 40% -8  0 - 3 -14 +8 B+ C- A- -21 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 81 @Notre Dame L 79 - 86 6% -9  0 - 4 +3 +12 A+ F F+ -9 F F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 344 @The Citadel W 70 - 58 52% +5  1 - 4 +3 +4 C+ F+ B +1 A F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 297 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 49% -1  2 - 4 -3 +6 A- F C- -8 C F F+
 Sat, Dec 6 106 @Murray St. L 68 - 81 8% -13  2 - 5 -6 +0 A- F C -7 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 193 Northern Kentucky L 76 - 80 39% -6  2 - 6 -9 +0 B+ F F -10 F C+ D-
 Wed, Dec 17 275 Chattanooga W 79 - 64 54% -1  3 - 6 +6 +4 B F D- +2 A C- F
 Tue, Dec 23 26 @Kentucky L 85 - 99 1% -8  3 - 7 +5 +25 A+ A+ C- -21 F F C
 Thu, Jan 1 325 @West Georgia L 85 - 87 46% -10  3 - 8 0 - 1 -9 +10 A- F A -19 F+ C F
 Sat, Jan 3 208 @Queens L 76 - 98 22% -10  3 - 9 0 - 2 -22 -3 B+ F F -19 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 219 Central Arkansas W 84 - 78 OT 43% -0  4 - 9 1 - 2 -0 +3 A- D B -4 A+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 326 North Alabama L 73 - 82 69% -1  4 - 10 1 - 3 -22 +5 B+ D- C+ -29 F C D
 Thu, Jan 15 178 @Lipscomb L 71 - 81 17% -14  4 - 11 1 - 4 -8 +3 F D+ A+ -11 D- F B
 Sat, Jan 17 265 @Eastern Kentucky L 69 - 89 30% -11  4 - 12 1 - 5 -23 -1 F+ F+ C+ -24 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 295 @Jacksonville W 77 - 70 37% +1  5 - 12 2 - 5 +2 +13 A C- D+ -10 D+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 351 @North Florida L 114 - 117 OT 55% -6  5 - 13 2 - 6 -13 +17 A+ D A+ -29 F F F
 Wed, Jan 28 325 West Georgia W 77 - 74 68% +5  6 - 13 3 - 6 -10 +7 A- D+ B+ -17 F D- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 208 Queens W 78 - 75 41% +0  7 - 13 4 - 6 -3 +6 C+ A- D+ -8 B- F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 329 Stetson W 80 - 75 69%
 Sat, Feb 7 223 Florida Gulf Coast L 78 - 80 43%
 Thu, Feb 12 219 @Central Arkansas L 74 - 82 23%
 Sat, Feb 14 175 @Austin Peay L 72 - 82 17%
 Wed, Feb 18 178 Lipscomb L 77 - 81 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 265 Eastern Kentucky W 81 - 80 52%
 Wed, Feb 25 326 @North Alabama L 76 - 77 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 175 Austin Peay L 75 - 79 34%
Totals 10 - 18 7 - 11 -8 +2 B F+ C -10 F D- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 5.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 1.7 9.5 5.8 0.5 17.5 6th
7th 0.4 8.4 9.0 1.0 0.0 18.8 7th
8th 0.0 3.8 11.5 2.1 0.0 17.5 8th
9th 0.9 9.6 4.3 0.1 14.8 9th
10th 0.2 4.3 6.1 0.4 11.0 10th
11th 0.9 3.8 0.8 0.0 5.6 11th
12th 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.0 12th
Total 2.2 9.9 20.8 26.3 22.3 12.6 4.7 1.1 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 1.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.1
10-8 4.7% 4.9% 4.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 4.5
9-9 12.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.6 12.1
8-10 22.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 21.9
7-11 26.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.4 25.9
6-12 20.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 20.6
5-13 9.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.8
4-14 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%