Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.7 #280
Expected Predictive Rating -7.0 #267
Pace 66.1 #262
Improvement +1.4 #110

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #142 A F C- B+ A
Defense #354 F D D+ C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #28 1.35 #23 +8.6 #6
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #333 0.77 #149 -3.0 #317
Three Pointers 42% #158 1.08 #98 +2.0 #120
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #18 +7.7 #17
Freethrows 19.8 #71 76% #81 15.0 #53
Second Chance 18.3% #365 1.04 #191 0.19 #360
Turnovers 17.8% #251
Total Offense +0.7 #142

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #335 1.37 #360 +1.0 #140
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #265 0.82 #281 +0.6 #158
Three Pointers 51% #10 1.16 #342 -9.2 #364
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #356 -7.6 #355
Freethrows 16.5 #148 71% #111 11.7 #237
Second Chance 34.6% #311 1.08 #227 0.37 #298
Turnovers 15.4% #258
Total Defense -7.5 #354

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.2% #21 -0.3% #138
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.3% #36 15.4% #361
Possession Length 18.4 #292 16.7 #91
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #238 0.13 #50
Improvement +0.0 #180 +1.4 #90

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 4.8% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 11.8% 15.8% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 41.5% 51.0% 24.8%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.2% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 3.1% 11.4%
First Four2.4% 2.7% 2.0%
First Round2.8% 3.5% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Home) - 63.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 10
Quad 411 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 24 @Georgia L 59 - 104 2%  -18  0 - 1 -26 -11 B F F -12 F A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 74 @Kansas St. L 71 - 98 6%  -11  0 - 2 -16 +2 D+ B- C -17 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 223 Wofford L 86 - 94 48%  -8  0 - 3 -14 +8 B+ B+ A+ -22 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 59 @Notre Dame L 79 - 86 5%  -9  0 - 4 +5 +14 A+ F F -9 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 360 @The Citadel W 70 - 58 70%  +5  1 - 4 -0 -0 C F B- +2 A+ F C
 Tue, Nov 25 300 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 54%  -1  2 - 4 -3 +7 A+ F D+ -9 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 6 91 @Murray St. L 68 - 81 8%  -13  2 - 5 -4 +2 A+ F C- -7 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 174 Northern Kentucky L 76 - 80 40%  -6  2 - 6 -8 +1 A- F F -9 F B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 273 Chattanooga W 79 - 64 61%  -1  3 - 6 +6 +3 B- F D +3 A+ C- F
 Tue, Dec 23 27 @Kentucky L 85 - 99 2%  -8  3 - 7 +4 +26 A+ A+ D+ -22 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 297 @West Georgia L 85 - 87 42%  -6  3 - 8 0 - 1 -7 +11 A+ F A+ -18 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 207 @Queens L 76 - 98 24%  -10  3 - 9 0 - 2 -22 -3 A F F -18 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 261 Central Arkansas W 84 - 78 OT 58%  -0  4 - 9 1 - 2 -3 +2 A+ F B- -5 A D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 293 North Alabama W 76 - 72 64% 
 Thu, Jan 15 177 @Lipscomb L 74 - 82 21% 
 Sat, Jan 17 254 @Eastern Kentucky L 77 - 81 34% 
 Thu, Jan 22 328 @Jacksonville W 72 - 71 53% 
 Sat, Jan 24 350 @North Florida W 86 - 83 61% 
 Wed, Jan 28 297 West Georgia W 79 - 75 64% 
 Sat, Jan 31 207 Queens L 82 - 83 45% 
 Thu, Feb 5 337 Stetson W 81 - 73 76% 
 Sat, Feb 7 189 Florida Gulf Coast L 78 - 80 44% 
 Thu, Feb 12 261 @Central Arkansas L 75 - 79 35% 
 Sat, Feb 14 186 @Austin Peay L 71 - 79 23% 
 Wed, Feb 18 177 Lipscomb L 77 - 79 41% 
 Sat, Feb 21 254 Eastern Kentucky W 80 - 78 56% 
 Wed, Feb 25 293 @North Alabama L 73 - 75 42% 
 Sat, Feb 28 186 Austin Peay L 74 - 76 43% 
Totals 11 - 17 8 - 10 -7 +1 A F C- -7 F D D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.5 3.1 3.2 0.7 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.0 1.3 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.9 6.6 2.6 0.1 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.3 7.2 4.3 0.3 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 6.5 5.2 0.7 0.0 14.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 5.2 5.0 1.0 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.5 4.3 1.4 0.1 10.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 6.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.0 8.0 12.1 15.4 16.7 15.3 11.4 7.8 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 94.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 77.7% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 33.2% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 7.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.2% 22.9% 22.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.7% 16.2% 16.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
13-5 2.0% 14.8% 14.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7
12-6 4.3% 12.3% 12.3% 15.5 0.2 0.3 3.8
11-7 7.8% 8.4% 8.4% 15.7 0.2 0.5 7.1
10-8 11.4% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.0 0.8 10.6
9-9 15.3% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.7 14.6
8-10 16.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 16.3
7-11 15.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 15.1
6-12 12.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 12.0
5-13 8.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.9
4-14 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.8 95.9 0.0%