Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.8#345
Expected Predictive Rating-18.3#361
Pace66.4#247
Improvement-2.5#307

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#257
First Shot+0.0#173
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#331
Layup/Dunks+2.0#113
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#106
Freethrows-0.2#191
Improvement+0.6#131

Defense
Total Defense-8.8#363
First Shot-8.3#361
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#228
Layups/Dunks-4.7#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#352
Freethrows+0.6#142
Improvement-3.1#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.9% 19.0% 5.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.3% 15.8% 35.4%
First Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Away) - 11.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 46 - 126 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 57   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-84 2%     0 - 1 -6.6 +3.9 -11.5
  Nov 09, 2024 344   VMI L 71-76 61%     0 - 2 -19.6 -8.7 -11.0
  Nov 13, 2024 325   Southern Indiana L 69-71 52%     0 - 3 -14.3 -7.2 -7.2
  Nov 16, 2024 199   @ Marshall L 62-83 12%     0 - 4 -19.8 -10.1 -9.8
  Nov 19, 2024 45   @ Louisville L 68-100 2%     0 - 5 -17.9 -2.6 -13.7
  Nov 23, 2024 289   Bowling Green W 80-68 43%     1 - 5 +2.1 +3.8 -1.4
  Nov 30, 2024 205   @ Northern Kentucky L 70-86 12%     1 - 6 -15.1 +2.0 -17.5
  Dec 04, 2024 311   @ Western Carolina L 74-86 27%     1 - 7 -17.4 +0.5 -17.8
  Dec 14, 2024 252   Ball St. L 82-86 35%     1 - 8 -11.9 +12.5 -24.8
  Dec 19, 2024 159   @ Wyoming L 55-92 9%     1 - 9 -34.0 -10.3 -27.6
  Dec 21, 2024 76   @ Colorado L 55-79 3%     1 - 10 -13.5 -12.3 -0.8
  Jan 02, 2025 197   @ North Alabama L 68-81 11%    
  Jan 04, 2025 338   @ Central Arkansas L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 09, 2025 211   Jacksonville L 69-75 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 207   North Florida L 78-84 28%    
  Jan 16, 2025 109   Lipscomb L 67-80 12%    
  Jan 18, 2025 230   @ Eastern Kentucky L 72-83 15%    
  Jan 23, 2025 188   Florida Gulf Coast L 67-74 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 348   Stetson W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 283   @ Austin Peay L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 01, 2025 109   @ Lipscomb L 64-83 4%    
  Feb 06, 2025 207   @ North Florida L 75-87 13%    
  Feb 08, 2025 211   @ Jacksonville L 66-78 13%    
  Feb 13, 2025 264   Queens L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 341   West Georgia W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 18, 2025 283   Austin Peay L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 20, 2025 230   Eastern Kentucky L 75-80 32%    
  Feb 24, 2025 348   @ Stetson L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 26, 2025 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 64-77 12%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.6 1.9 0.2 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 14.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 5.5 8.1 4.0 0.5 0.0 19.4 10th
11th 0.2 2.0 6.4 8.2 3.9 0.6 0.0 21.4 11th
12th 0.9 3.9 7.0 6.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 21.2 12th
Total 0.9 4.1 9.1 14.0 17.0 16.7 14.4 10.3 6.5 3.8 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 85.7% 0.0    0.0
14-4 55.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.8% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
9-9 3.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.8
8-10 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.5
7-11 10.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.3
6-12 14.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.4
5-13 16.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.6
4-14 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.0
3-15 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.0
2-16 9.1% 9.1
1-17 4.1% 4.1
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%