Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.5#356
Expected Predictive Rating-22.1#361
Pace65.0#267
Improvement-0.8#226

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#259
First Shot-1.1#214
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#300
Layup/Dunks+1.1#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#121
Freethrows+0.1#166
Improvement+0.2#180

Defense
Total Defense-10.3#362
First Shot-8.9#362
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#294
Layups/Dunks-5.7#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#354
Freethrows+1.1#106
Improvement-0.9#236
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 86.9% 68.9% 89.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Away) - 14.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 80 - 13
Quad 43 - 133 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 38   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-84 1%     0 - 1 -4.6 +4.0 -9.5
  Nov 09, 2024 304   VMI L 71-76 39%     0 - 2 -15.5 -6.3 -9.3
  Nov 13, 2024 324   Southern Indiana L 69-71 46%     0 - 3 -14.5 -7.7 -6.8
  Nov 16, 2024 182   @ Marshall L 62-83 9%     0 - 4 -19.6 -10.0 -9.6
  Nov 19, 2024 27   @ Louisville L 68-100 1%     0 - 5 -15.1 -0.9 -12.6
  Nov 23, 2024 312   Bowling Green W 80-68 41%     1 - 5 +0.9 +3.5 -2.2
  Nov 30, 2024 244   @ Northern Kentucky L 70-86 15%     1 - 6 -18.4 +0.4 -19.2
  Dec 04, 2024 350   @ Western Carolina L 74-86 38%     1 - 7 -22.3 -2.4 -19.8
  Dec 14, 2024 255   Ball St. L 82-86 30%     1 - 8 -12.0 +10.6 -22.9
  Dec 19, 2024 167   @ Wyoming L 55-92 8%     1 - 9 -34.5 -9.5 -29.0
  Dec 21, 2024 98   @ Colorado L 55-79 4%     1 - 10 -16.6 -14.1 -2.2
  Jan 02, 2025 155   @ North Alabama L 66-82 7%     1 - 11 0 - 1 -12.9 +0.2 -14.9
  Jan 04, 2025 341   @ Central Arkansas L 65-71 34%     1 - 12 0 - 2 -15.3 -9.0 -6.6
  Jan 09, 2025 179   Jacksonville L 59-74 17%     1 - 13 0 - 3 -18.4 -4.0 -16.7
  Jan 11, 2025 245   North Florida L 83-98 28%     1 - 14 0 - 4 -22.6 +5.2 -28.5
  Jan 16, 2025 110   Lipscomb L 53-87 9%     1 - 15 0 - 5 -33.0 -16.4 -18.6
  Jan 18, 2025 231   @ Eastern Kentucky L 69-72 13%     1 - 16 0 - 6 -4.5 -0.5 -4.3
  Jan 23, 2025 164   Florida Gulf Coast L 61-77 15%     1 - 17 0 - 7 -18.3 -6.0 -14.3
  Jan 25, 2025 334   Stetson L 76-81 51%     1 - 18 0 - 8 -18.7 -3.5 -15.3
  Jan 30, 2025 296   @ Austin Peay L 77-86 OT 21%     1 - 19 0 - 9 -13.9 -2.3 -11.0
  Feb 01, 2025 110   @ Lipscomb L 80-87 5%     1 - 20 0 - 10 -1.0 +12.8 -14.1
  Feb 06, 2025 245   @ North Florida L 78-89 14%    
  Feb 08, 2025 179   @ Jacksonville L 64-79 7%    
  Feb 13, 2025 213   Queens L 74-82 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 345   West Georgia W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 18, 2025 296   Austin Peay L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 20, 2025 231   Eastern Kentucky L 74-81 27%    
  Feb 24, 2025 334   @ Stetson L 74-79 31%    
  Feb 26, 2025 164   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 63-79 6%    
Projected Record 3 - 26 2 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 2.3 4.1 1.7 0.1 8.2 10th
11th 5.9 11.4 4.1 0.3 21.7 11th
12th 10.2 26.3 24.4 8.0 0.6 69.4 12th
Total 10.2 26.3 30.3 21.6 8.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13 2.4% 2.4
4-14 8.8% 8.8
3-15 21.6% 21.6
2-16 30.3% 30.3
1-17 26.3% 26.3
0-18 10.2% 10.2
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.2%