Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.4 67
Results Rating +10.6 53
Pace 72.3 79
Improvement +0.7 165

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 50 A C+ D+ C- B+
Defense C+ 129 B- C C+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 85 A- 67% 30 +5.7 18
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 342 C+ 40% 98 -3.4 331
Three Pointers 47% 58 A 41% 6 +7.7 12
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.5 22 A +8.1 8
1st FG Attempt A 1.22 3
Second Chance D+ 27.8% 254 A 1.24 9 C+ 0.35 100
Turnovers D+ 18.1% 270
Freethrows C 0.31 173 D+ 69% 275 C- 0.21 201
Total Offense B+ +7.0 50

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 56% 65 B- 9.1% 82
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 108 D+ 6.8% 289
Three Pointers B- 88% 87 F+ 1.9% 341
Total B+ 65% 24 C 5.5% 172

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 354 B- 54% 74 -6.8 13
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 236 A- 32% 10 -1.9 37
Three Pointers 52% 4 C 34% 205 +6.1 355
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 101 B- -2.2 94
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 94
Second Chance C- 31.7% 239 C+ 1.01 156 C 0.32 211
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 117
Freethrows B- 0.27 86 D- 76% 336 C+ 0.21 129
Total Defense C+ +1.5 129

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 72 C+ 13.0% 93
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 25 B+ 8.1% 42
Three Pointers C 84% 171 C- 0.8% 176
Total C- 58% 224 C 5.7% 164

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.7 37 18.2 309
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 281 0.14 85
Improvement +3.3 #46 -2.6 #305

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 80 68 56
Results Rating Rank 66 58 43
Conference Record 16 - 4 17 - 3 17 - 3
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38% 39% 31%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6% 6% 1%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 11.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 4% 1%
First Round36% 36% 31%
Second Round7% 7% 6%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 26 - 26 - 2
Quad 312 - 318 - 5
Quad 49 - 027 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 351 Air Force W 79 - 63 98% +4  63% 1 - 0 C -1 C+ +2 C+ F B+ C- -1 F D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 224 Tennessee St. W 87 - 79 91% +6  97% 2 - 0 C +1 D -5 C+ F D B+ +5 A C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 335 @Oral Roberts W 83 - 60 93% +6  65% 3 - 0 A- +15 C- -1 A- A F A+ +14 A+ B- C-
 Wed, Nov 19 188 Lipscomb W 75 - 68 89% +7  89% 4 - 0 C+ +2 F+ -9 D+ B F A+ +11 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 355 St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 57 97% +16  94% 5 - 0 A +22 B+ +8 A+ C- C A+ +13 A B A
 Wed, Nov 26 161 Toledo W 87 - 72 79% +3  63% 6 - 0 A- +15 B +7 A+ A+ F A- +7 B C B-
 Sun, Nov 30 149 @College of Charleston W 96 - 73 69% +19  96% 7 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +23 A+ D+ A+ B- +3 A+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 3 130 Richmond L 76 - 84 81% +0  42% 7 - 1 D -9 D -5 C+ B F+ D+ -3 F A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 167 @Middle Tennessee W 83 - 62 71% +8  82% 8 - 1 A+ +24 B+ +8 A C+ A- A+ +15 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 109 Illinois-Chicago W 87 - 84 77% -3  26% 9 - 1 1 - 0 C+ +4 A+ +22 A+ B D+ F -18 F+ D+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 295 @Evansville W 83 - 78 89% +7  99% 10 - 1 2 - 0 C +0 C -0 C F D+ C -0 C+ C+ D
 Fri, Dec 19 120 @UC Irvine W 84 - 58 60% +8  75% 11 - 1 A+ +32 A+ +17 A+ C+ F+ A+ +15 A+ A F
 Mon, Dec 29 213 @Indiana St. L 80 - 81 OT 79% +2  68% 11 - 2 2 - 1 C -1 C- -1 C C- F C+ +0 C- C- C
 Thu, Jan 1 112 Bradley W 88 - 78 78% +3  85% 12 - 2 3 - 1 B +10 A +13 A+ A+ F+ C- -3 D- D+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 125 Southern Illinois L 67 - 68 80% -0  33% 12 - 3 3 - 2 C -1 D+ -3 A+ D F+ C+ +2 C C- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 94 @Northern Iowa W 78 - 65 48% +8  95% 13 - 3 4 - 2 A +22 A+ +27 A+ B+ A+ C- -2 B C F
 Sat, Jan 10 193 @Drake W 78 - 76 76% -11  4% 14 - 3 5 - 2 C+ +3 C- -1 F A F B +4 F A A+
 Tue, Jan 13 151 Valparaiso W 78 - 74 85% +3  79% 15 - 3 6 - 2 C +1 B+ +8 A+ F A- D- -7 C+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 125 @Southern Illinois W 73 - 68 61% +2  58% 16 - 3 7 - 2 B +11 B +6 C- B A+ B +4 A C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 103 Illinois St. W 80 - 69 74% +6  79% 17 - 3 8 - 2 B+ +13 B +7 A+ C- F+ B+ +5 A+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 28 151 @Valparaiso W 78 - 77 69% +2  60% 18 - 3 9 - 2 C+ +4 B +7 A+ A- F C- -3 F+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 123 Murray St. W 103 - 86 80% +20  96% 19 - 3 10 - 2 A- +17 A+ +24 A+ A+ A D- -7 A F B
 Tue, Feb 3 193 Drake W 103 - 90 89% +8  92% 20 - 3 11 - 2 B- +8 A+ +24 A+ A A+ F -16 F F B+
 Fri, Feb 6 109 @Illinois-Chicago W 68 - 62 57% +9  96% 21 - 3 12 - 2 B+ +13 B- +5 A+ F+ F A- +8 C A+ C-
 Mon, Feb 9 112 @Bradley L 84 - 95 OT 58% -2  27% 21 - 4 12 - 3 C- -5 B- +4 C A+ D- D- -7 D- B F+
 Thu, Feb 12 94 Northern Iowa W 91 - 86 70% +2  76% 22 - 4 13 - 3 B- +8 A+ +20 A+ C+ B F -12 D+ C- C-
 Sun, Feb 15 123 @Murray St. W 87 - 70 60% -3  33% 23 - 4 14 - 3 A +23 B+ +8 A C- D+ A+ +14 B+ A A
 Sat, Feb 21 213 Indiana St. W 87 - 70 90% +10  93% 24 - 4 15 - 3 B +11 B- +5 A- F B+ B+ +5 B B- C-
 Wed, Feb 25 295 Evansville W 86 - 67 97%
 Sun, Mar 1 103 @Illinois St. W 77 - 76 53%
Totals 25 - 5 16 - 4 +8 B+ +7 A- A B+ C+ +1 A D+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ A- C+ A A 42% 21% 47% B+ A D+ A C+ D+ C D+ C- C+ B- A- C B- 29% 19% 52% B- B- C- C+ C C+ B- D- C+
1.19 67% 40% 41% +8 +1 1.22 28% 1.2 .35 18% .31 69% .21 1.07 54% 32% 34% -2 0 0.97 32% 1.0 .32 18% .27 76% .23
Nov
3		 Air Force C+ A F D- C- 48% 10% 42% A C+ D F F B+ A+ A+ A+ C- F D- D F 33% 23% 44% A F F A D A+ A F B
1.19 74% 20% 30% +3 +2 1.13 26% 0.8 .19 12% .43 84% .36 0.95 79% 40% 37% +9 -1 1.19 35% 0.9 .30 35% .21 78% .16
Nov
8		 Tennessee St. D A+ F F C- 57% 6% 37% A- C+ D- F F D A+ F+ A B+ A A+ C- A 32% 30% 38% B- A D- A C+ C- C- F D-
1.07 76% 0% 26% +4 +3 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 21% .51 67% .34 0.97 45% 21% 33% -10 -2 0.79 36% 0.8 .30 16% .29 85% .25
Nov
15		 Oral Roberts C- C+ D+ A+ A 45% 16% 39% C- A- B- A+ A F C- F F A+ C+ F A+ A+ 33% 15% 52% C+ A+ B C+ B- C- F D F
1.10 59% 38% 47% +8 +1 1.20 35% 1.5 .52 25% .30 47% .14 0.80 53% 50% 11% -18 0 0.67 23% 0.9 .20 17% .42 77% .32
Nov
19		 Lipscomb F+ C D D- D- 33% 7% 60% A D+ C A- B F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ 27% 8% 64% B- A+ F D- F A+ A- F B-
0.96 60% 33% 30% -4 +1 0.98 31% 1.2 .37 28% .52 72% .38 0.87 31% 40% 24% -17 +1 0.69 36% 1.2 .42 24% .17 90% .15
Nov
24		 St. Francis (PA) B+ B- D A+ A 42% 6% 53% B+ A+ F A+ C- C F A- F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 33% 15% 52% D- A C A B A C- D- D+
1.31 68% 33% 50% +17 +2 1.40 24% 1.5 .36 18% .24 79% .19 0.79 41% 50% 22% -13 0 0.77 27% 0.7 .20 24% .27 73% .20
Nov
26		 Toledo B B+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 4% 60% B A+ B A+ A+ F F D- F A- D+ B B+ A- 33% 15% 53% D- B A+ F C B- A- A- A
1.22 67% 50% 50% +18 +2 1.42 40% 1.6 .64 28% .06 67% .04 1.01 61% 38% 31% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.7 .29 17% .22 69% .15
Nov
30		 College of Charleston A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 20% 48% B- A+ D+ D+ D+ A+ A- F C+ B- A+ A+ A A+ 13% 17% 69% B+ A+ D D D- F F C+ F
1.36 83% 55% 48% +22 0 1.45 28% 0.9 .24 8% .29 58% .17 1.03 43% 22% 25% -14 -1 0.71 33% 1.2 .39 11% .48 73% .35
Dec
3		 Richmond D B+ F D- C- 38% 5% 56% A+ C+ D A+ B F+ D F F D+ B+ B- F F 25% 33% 42% B+ F A+ C+ A+ B- C D C
1.03 67% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.6 .41 20% .26 47% .12 1.14 54% 35% 59% +14 -3 1.25 10% 1.0 .10 16% .32 80% .26
Dec
7		 Middle Tennessee B+ A A C+ A 46% 19% 35% C+ A C- B+ C+ A- F F F A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 14% 27% 59% A+ A+ B F C- F C F D+
1.18 69% 45% 35% +7 +1 1.18 24% 1.2 .30 11% .21 38% .08 0.88 38% 40% 18% -16 -3 0.64 26% 1.2 .30 11% .26 75% .19
Dec
13		 Illinois-Chicago A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 5% 56% A A+ A D+ B D+ A+ D+ A+ F D+ B F F 20% 24% 56% A F+ F+ C+ D+ F A F C
1.36 65% 50% 54% +20 +2 1.47 44% 0.9 .40 22% .44 73% .32 1.32 60% 33% 43% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 13% .23 100% .23
Dec
16		 Evansville C D+ F A+ C- 50% 13% 37% A C F C- F D+ A+ C- A+ C A+ A- F+ B- 24% 19% 57% D+ C+ D+ A C+ D F F F
1.09 56% 14% 45% +2 +2 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 18% .40 72% .29 1.02 38% 30% 39% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.9 .22 17% .38 83% .32
Dec
19		 UC Irvine A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 9% 43% A+ A+ D+ A C+ F+ B+ B+ A- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 25% 27% 48% B+ A+ A A A F C+ A+ B
1.21 48% 75% 55% +12 +2 1.30 30% 1.1 .33 22% .31 76% .24 0.83 38% 21% 32% -11 -2 0.77 23% 0.8 .19 13% .28 59% .17
Dec
29		 Indiana St. C- F F A+ C- 46% 11% 44% A C D+ C+ C- F B- A+ A- C+ A- A+ F D+ 39% 11% 50% B C- D- B C- C F A+ D
1.06 46% 17% 44% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 21% .28 82% .23 1.07 52% 17% 44% +3 +1 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 18% .42 50% .21
Jan
1		 Bradley A B F A+ A 50% 2% 48% A+ A+ A+ B A+ F+ A+ C+ A+ C- A- C+ F F+ 24% 18% 58% C+ D- F A+ D+ A+ C A+ B
1.26 64% 0% 43% +8 +3 1.25 43% 1.1 .46 23% .56 73% .41 1.12 50% 33% 45% +7 -1 1.14 41% 0.8 .32 23% .32 65% .20
Jan
4		 Southern Illinois D+ A- A+ F+ A+ 61% 14% 25% A+ A+ D+ D- D F+ A F C- C+ A- F+ D D+ 28% 32% 40% A- C F A- C- A+ B A- B+
0.97 67% 67% 27% +7 +3 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 23% .37 50% .19 0.98 50% 50% 35% +2 -2 1.02 38% 0.8 .30 26% .25 62% .16
Jan
7		 Northern Iowa A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 9% 42% A A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ B- F D C- D- A+ B- B+ 29% 8% 63% C- B C C C F A- C B+
1.33 73% 50% 47% +17 +2 1.40 22% 1.4 .30 10% .29 53% .15 1.11 67% 0% 31% -3 +1 0.98 22% 1.1 .24 5% .18 70% .13
Jan
10		 Drake C- D+ F F F 33% 11% 56% A- F A- B+ A F A+ A- A+ B B+ A+ F F 19% 13% 67% C F B A+ A A+ B+ A- A-
1.07 56% 17% 27% -9 +1 0.85 39% 1.1 .41 19% .43 76% .32 1.04 50% 29% 46% +9 0 1.19 23% 0.8 .17 23% .25 64% .16
Jan
13		 Valparaiso B+ A+ C- A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% B A+ F D F A- F A+ F D- F B- B C- 12% 36% 52% A+ C+ D- F F B- A- A+ A+
1.20 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 20% 0.8 .16 14% .11 100% .11 1.14 83% 33% 31% -1 -4 0.92 37% 1.6 .58 17% .28 53% .15
Jan
17		 Southern Illinois B A+ F F D+ 40% 19% 40% B- C- B- B- B A+ A+ C A B A- A+ C A+ 36% 20% 44% D A B D+ C+ C+ D- F F
1.05 71% 30% 19% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.1 .35 13% .38 70% .27 0.98 50% 20% 32% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.0 .26 17% .35 85% .30
Jan
24		 Illinois St. B A+ A A+ A+ 38% 31% 31% C- A+ F A+ C- F+ A F B- B+ B+ A+ A A+ 28% 19% 53% C+ A+ F F+ F B+ F F F
1.15 72% 47% 53% +17 -1 1.33 12% 2.0 .23 20% .38 62% .23 0.99 54% 22% 28% -9 -1 0.83 35% 1.2 .43 20% .36 85% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Valparaiso B B C- A+ A+ 33% 14% 53% C+ A+ D A+ A- F A- D- B- C- F A F+ F 28% 28% 43% C F+ C+ A+ A+ D+ C F+ D+
1.14 64% 33% 48% +12 0 1.28 27% 1.4 .38 22% .38 65% .24 1.13 73% 27% 39% +4 -2 1.08 31% 0.6 .19 13% .35 76% .27
Jan
31		 Murray St. A+ B A+ A+ A+ 44% 24% 33% C A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ D- A- D- F A+ A+ A 35% 20% 46% B- A F F F B F F F
1.46 63% 54% 44% +11 0 1.24 47% 1.5 .69 11% .40 68% .27 1.22 81% 22% 19% -5 0 0.91 47% 1.4 .68 18% .45 85% .38
Feb
3		 Drake A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 34% 14% 53% B+ A+ D- A+ A A+ F+ F F F B+ F F F 31% 20% 49% C F F F F B+ B- D- C+
1.47 80% 38% 48% +19 +1 1.41 24% 1.8 .42 7% .23 53% .12 1.29 50% 50% 48% +10 0 1.22 36% 1.7 .61 17% .28 75% .21
Feb
6		 Illinois-Chicago B- A- F A+ A+ 21% 9% 70% C A+ D+ F F+ F B F D A- C- F A+ C- 39% 27% 34% B C C+ A+ A+ C- D- B D+
1.07 67% 25% 43% +10 0 1.23 31% 0.8 .23 27% .35 56% .19 0.98 59% 58% 20% -1 -1 0.98 35% 0.5 .18 17% .36 68% .25
Feb
9		 Bradley B- A+ F D- C- 25% 19% 57% B- C B+ A+ A+ D- A- B- A- D- A A+ F D- 29% 15% 56% D+ D- B B- B F+ D- D+ D-
1.09 85% 20% 30% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.4 .53 22% .40 75% .30 1.23 47% 11% 48% +5 0 1.12 24% 1.0 .24 10% .37 77% .29
Feb
12		 Northern Iowa A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 38% 8% 55% A- A+ F A+ C+ B B A+ A F C- F D D 41% 16% 43% C D+ B F C- C- F F F
1.28 65% 100% 45% +16 +2 1.38 13% 2.0 .25 15% .30 83% .25 1.21 62% 50% 36% +5 +1 1.14 18% 1.4 .25 14% .39 96% .38
Feb
15		 Murray St. B+ B+ F A+ B+ 52% 8% 40% A+ A F A+ C- D+ B A+ A A+ C+ A+ C B+ 24% 18% 58% B+ B+ C+ A+ A A D+ A+ B
1.19 63% 0% 43% +5 +3 1.17 21% 1.5 .32 18% .33 85% .28 0.96 58% 22% 34% -2 -1 0.96 32% 0.8 .27 20% .36 62% .22
Feb
21		 Indiana St. B- A+ A+ D- A 34% 20% 46% C A- F F F B+ C- A+ B- B+ D- A+ B+ B 43% 9% 48% C B B+ D- B- C- A+ F A-
1.19 71% 75% 29% +8 0 1.18 21% 0.4 .09 12% .23 87% .20 0.96 68% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 20% 1.1 .23 18% .13 88% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1.7 47.2 51.1 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.7 47.2 51.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 51.1    51.1
16-4 100.0% 47.2    47.2
15-5 100.0% 1.7    1.7
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 51.1% 42.2% 36.5% 5.6% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 15.4 4.9 0.0 29.6 8.9%
16-4 47.2% 34.4% 32.6% 1.8% 11.5 0.0 0.2 8.5 7.4 0.1 31.0 2.7%
15-5 1.7% 29.4% 29.4% 11.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.2
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.3% 34.5% 3.7% 11.3 61.7 5.7%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 18.7% 100.0% 11.2 0.0 0.3 5.7 68.9 24.9 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.3% 9.9% 11.1 0.3 8.7 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.0% 9.1% 11.0 0.3 8.2 0.6
Lose Out 0.5%