IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+8.0	#73
Expected Predictive Rating	+7.7	#78

Pace	73.5	#69
Improvement	+0.6	#147

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#61	A+	C+	D+	C	A+
Defense	#106	B	C	C+	B-	B

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	45%	#35	1.30	#53	+7.0	#15
2 Pt. Jumpers	9%	#352	0.73	#205	-4.3	#348
Three Pointers	46%	#102	1.27	#5	+8.1	#9
1st FG Attempt			1.23	#1	+10.9	#1
Freethrows	18.3	#136	66%	#330	12.1	#207
Second Chance	29.2%	#232	1.18	#46	0.35	#127
Turnovers					18.2%	#277
Total Offense					+5.8	#61

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	27%	#359	1.00	#27	+9.0	#4
2 Pt. Jumpers	19%	#224	0.69	#101	+1.2	#104
Three Pointers	54%	#3	1.01	#175	-6.7	#354
1st FG Attempt			0.95	#73	+3.5	#74
Freethrows	15.1	#70	74%	#226	11.1	#281
Second Chance	31.8%	#226	0.99	#115	0.31	#168
Turnovers					17.3%	#139
Total Defense					+2.2	#106

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	3.8%	#10	-1.3%	#76
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	16.8%	#8	-5.7%	#79
Possession Length	15.7	#50	18.3	#326
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.14	#255	0.14	#63
Improvement	+3.6	#16	-3.0	#337

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	27.8%	29.4%	24.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.8%	0.9%	0.4%
Average Seed	11.5	11.5	11.7

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	98.3%	99.3%	95.9%
Conference Champion	27.1%	32.2%	14.7%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.5%	0.6%	0.3%
First Round	27.6%	29.1%	23.9%
Second Round	6.2%	6.8%	4.7%
Sweet Sixteen	1.2%	1.4%	0.8%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

11 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	5 - 2	5 - 3
Quad 3	9 - 5	14 - 7
Quad 4	10 - 1	24 - 8

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	334 Air Force	W	79 - 63	97%	+4	1 - 0		+2	+7	B+	F	A+	-4	F	D+	A+
Sat, Nov 8	219 Tennessee St.	W	87 - 79	90%	+6	2 - 0		+2	+0	B	F	D	+0	B-	B-	C
Sat, Nov 15	298 @Oral Roberts	W	83 - 60	88%	+6	3 - 0		+18	+3	A+	A+	F	+14	A+	B+	D+
Wed, Nov 19	177 Lipscomb	W	75 - 68	87%	+7	4 - 0		+3	-7	C-	B-	F	+9	A+	F	A+
Mon, Nov 24	361 St. Francis (PA)	W	94 - 57	98%	+16	5 - 0		+21	+12	A+	C-	C-	+9	A	B	A+
Wed, Nov 26	180 Toledo	W	87 - 72	81%	+3	6 - 0		+14	+10	A+	A+	F	+4	B-	C	B
Sun, Nov 30	149 @College of Charleston	W	96 - 73	67%	+19	7 - 0		+26	+24	A+	D+	A+	+2	A+	F	F
Wed, Dec 3	115 Richmond	L	76 - 84	76%	+0	7 - 1		-7	-2	C	B	F	-5	F	A+	C
Sun, Dec 7	123 @Middle Tennessee	W	83 - 62	61%	+8	8 - 1		+26	+12	A+	C	A+	+14	A+	D	F
Sat, Dec 13	184 Illinois-Chicago	W	87 - 84	88%	-3	9 - 1	1 - 0	-2	+21	A+	B-	D-	-22	F	C-	F
Tue, Dec 16	263 @Evansville	W	83 - 78	84%	+7	10 - 1	2 - 0	+2	+5	B-	F	C	-4	C-	A-	D-
Fri, Dec 19	121 @UC Irvine	W	84 - 58	60%	+8	11 - 1		+31	+18	A+	C+	F	+13	A+	A+	F
Mon, Dec 29	191 @Indiana St.	L	80 - 81 OT	75%	+2	11 - 2	2 - 1	-0	+2	B-	D	F	-2	D	D	C+
Thu, Jan 1	116 Bradley	W	88 - 78	76%	+3	12 - 2	3 - 1	+11	+17	A+	A+	D	-6	D-	D+	A+
Sun, Jan 4	130 Southern Illinois	L	67 - 68	81%	-0	12 - 3	3 - 2	-2	-4	A+	D-	F	+1	C	B	A+
Wed, Jan 7	96 @Northern Iowa	W	78 - 65	48%	+8	13 - 3	4 - 2	+21	+29	A+	A-	A+	-5	B+	D	F
Sat, Jan 10	169 @Drake	W	79 - 73	71%
Tue, Jan 13	188 Valparaiso	W	81 - 68	89%
Sat, Jan 17	130 @Southern Illinois	W	79 - 76	62%
Sun, Jan 25	85 Illinois St.	W	79 - 75	65%
Wed, Jan 28	188 @Valparaiso	W	78 - 71	75%
Sat, Jan 31	91 Murray St.	W	88 - 83	67%
Tue, Feb 3	169 Drake	W	82 - 70	86%
Fri, Feb 6	184 @Illinois-Chicago	W	80 - 73	73%
Mon, Feb 9	116 @Bradley	W	78 - 77	55%
Thu, Feb 12	96 Northern Iowa	W	71 - 65	70%
Sun, Feb 15	91 @Murray St.	L	85 - 86	46%
Sat, Feb 21	191 Indiana St.	W	86 - 73	89%
Wed, Feb 25	263 Evansville	W	83 - 66	94%
Sun, Mar 1	85 @Illinois St.	L	76 - 78	43%
Totals						23 - 7	14 - 6	+8	+6	A+	C+	D+	+2	B	C	C+

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st													0.0	0.2	2.3	8.2	9.7	5.5	1.3			27.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	3.4	10.1	9.2	2.9	0.2				26.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	3.3	9.0	7.2	1.5	0.0					21.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	2.2	5.9	4.7	0.9	0.0						14.0	4th
5th										0.1	1.1	3.4	2.3	0.4	0.0							7.4	5th
6th									0.0	0.6	1.4	0.7	0.1	0.0								2.8	6th
7th								0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.0										0.9	7th
8th								0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0											0.3	8th
9th							0.0	0.0	0.0													0.1	9th
10th								0.0														0.0	10th
11th																							11th

Total							0.0	0.1	0.3	1.3	3.1	6.6	11.9	17.8	20.6	18.9	12.6	5.6	1.3				Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2	100.0%	1.3	1.3	0.0
17-3	97.2%	5.5	4.8	0.7
16-4	77.0%	9.7	6.1	3.3	0.3	0.0
15-5	43.2%	8.2	2.7	4.0	1.4	0.1
14-6	11.4%	2.3	0.3	0.9	0.9	0.2	0.0
13-7	1.1%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	27.1%	27.1	15.2	8.9	2.6	0.4	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2	1.3%	57.5%	44.8%	12.7%	9.4					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3						0.5	23.0%
17-3	5.6%	44.9%	41.7%	3.3%	10.9									0.1	0.3	1.8	0.3	0.0				3.1	5.6%
16-4	12.6%	39.1%	38.1%	1.0%	11.3									0.0	0.2	3.2	1.5	0.0				7.7	1.5%
15-5	18.9%	33.2%	32.8%	0.4%	11.5										0.0	3.1	3.1	0.1				12.6	0.7%
14-6	20.6%	28.0%	28.0%	0.0%	11.7											2.0	3.7	0.1				14.8	0.0%
13-7	17.8%	23.5%	23.5%		11.9											0.8	3.2	0.3				13.6
12-8	11.9%	17.7%	17.7%		12.1											0.2	1.6	0.3	0.0			9.8
11-9	6.6%	12.9%	12.9%		12.2											0.1	0.6	0.2	0.0			5.7
10-10	3.1%	11.8%	11.8%		12.3											0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0			2.7
9-11	1.3%	8.8%	8.8%		12.8												0.0	0.1	0.0			1.1
8-12	0.3%	1.5%	1.5%		14.0														0.0			0.3
7-13	0.1%	9.5%	9.5%		13.5													0.0	0.0			0.1
6-14	0.0%																					0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	27.8%	27.3%	0.6%	11.5																	72.2	0.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Win Out	0.6%	100.0%	9.1	0.9	6.2	12.4	15.0	18.6	24.8	22.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.3%	25.0%	10.8					1.9	1.9	21.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.3%	23.8%	10.6					3.2	3.2	17.5