Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.8 #74
Expected Predictive Rating +10.1 #58
Pace 72.7 #76
Improvement +0.7 #153

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #56 A C+ D+ C- B+
Defense #119 B- C- B- B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #48 1.31 #36 +6.4 #15
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #343 0.79 #114 -3.3 #332
Three Pointers 45% #95 1.23 #6 +7.0 #16
1st FG Attempt 1.22 #4 +10.0 #4
Freethrows 0.30 #175 68% #313 0.21 #225
Second Chance 29.4% #222 1.19 #25 0.35 #100
Turnovers 18.3% #282
Total Offense +6.1 #56

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #359 1.07 #75 +7.7 #9
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #245 0.61 #10 +2.2 #34
Three Pointers 54% #3 1.00 #162 -6.4 #357
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #69 +3.4 #68
Freethrows 0.26 #62 76% #332 0.20 #95
Second Chance 32.7% #269 1.04 #202 0.34 #247
Turnovers 18.1% #92
Total Defense +1.7 #119

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.1% #22 -1.0% #90
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.0% #9 -5.7% #73
Possession Length 15.6 #39 18.3 #320
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #250 0.14 #77
Improvement +3.6 #28 -2.8 #320

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.1% 35.1% 28.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 2.8% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 11.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 86.9% 89.8% 69.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 1.7% 0.6%
First Round33.3% 34.2% 27.9%
Second Round6.7% 7.1% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.3% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 85.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 25 - 16 - 2
Quad 312 - 317 - 5
Quad 49 - 126 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 350 Air Force W 79 - 63 97% +4  1 - 0 +1 +6 B- F B+ -4 F D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 230 Tennessee St. W 87 - 79 91% +6  2 - 0 +1 -1 B- F D +1 A- C+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 335 @Oral Roberts W 83 - 60 92% +6  3 - 0 +15 +1 A- A F +12 A+ B- C-
 Wed, Nov 19 178 Lipscomb W 75 - 68 87% +7  4 - 0 +3 -7 C- B- F +9 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 357 St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 57 97% +16  5 - 0 +23 +12 A+ C- C +10 A B A+
 Wed, Nov 26 159 Toledo W 87 - 72 77% +3  6 - 0 +15 +10 A+ A+ F +5 B- C C+
 Sun, Nov 30 152 @College of Charleston W 96 - 73 67% +19  7 - 0 +26 +24 A+ D A +2 A+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 3 136 Richmond L 76 - 84 81% +0  7 - 1 -9 -3 C B- F+ -7 F A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 154 @Middle Tennessee W 83 - 62 68% +8  8 - 1 +24 +13 A C+ A- +11 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 135 Illinois-Chicago W 87 - 84 81% -3  9 - 1 1 - 0 +2 +23 A+ B- D+ -21 F C- F
 Tue, Dec 16 269 @Evansville W 83 - 78 85% +7  10 - 1 2 - 0 +2 +4 C+ F+ C- -3 C B- D-
 Fri, Dec 19 118 @UC Irvine W 84 - 58 57% +8  11 - 1 +32 +20 A+ B- F +13 A A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 29 198 @Indiana St. L 80 - 81 OT 76% +2  11 - 2 2 - 1 -0 +2 C+ C- F -3 C- D+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 121 Bradley W 88 - 78 78% +3  12 - 2 3 - 1 +10 +15 A+ A+ F+ -5 D- C- A+
 Sun, Jan 4 137 Southern Illinois L 67 - 68 81% -0  12 - 3 3 - 2 -3 -3 A+ D F -0 C C A+
 Wed, Jan 7 110 @Northern Iowa W 78 - 65 55% +8  13 - 3 4 - 2 +20 +29 A+ B A+ -7 B- C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 162 @Drake W 78 - 76 69% -11  14 - 3 5 - 2 +5 +3 F A D- +1 F A- A+
 Tue, Jan 13 160 Valparaiso W 78 - 74 85% +3  15 - 3 6 - 2 +1 +11 A+ F+ A- -10 C+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 137 @Southern Illinois W 73 - 68 63% +2  16 - 3 7 - 2 +9 +7 C- B- A+ +3 A- B- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 87 Illinois St. W 80 - 69 66% +6  17 - 3 8 - 2 +14 +10 A+ C- D- +4 A+ F+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 160 @Valparaiso W 78 - 77 69% +2  18 - 3 9 - 2 +4 +10 A+ A- F -7 D- A- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 106 Murray St. W 103 - 86 74% +20  19 - 3 10 - 2 +18 +27 A+ A+ A -8 A F B+
 Tue, Feb 3 162 Drake W 83 - 72 86%
 Fri, Feb 6 135 @Illinois-Chicago W 78 - 75 62%
 Mon, Feb 9 121 @Bradley W 80 - 78 59%
 Thu, Feb 12 110 Northern Iowa W 71 - 64 75%
 Sun, Feb 15 106 @Murray St. W 87 - 86 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 198 Indiana St. W 86 - 73 89%
 Wed, Feb 25 269 Evansville W 84 - 67 94%
 Sun, Mar 1 87 @Illinois St. L 75 - 77 44%
Totals 25 - 5 16 - 4 +8 +6 A C+ D+ +2 B- C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.6 7.6 23.9 29.6 19.4 5.7 86.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 5.3 2.3 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.6 0.5 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.7 13.4 26.3 29.6 19.4 5.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 5.7    5.7
17-3 100.0% 19.4    19.4
16-4 100.0% 29.6    27.6 2.0
15-5 91.2% 23.9    15.9 7.5 0.6
14-6 56.8% 7.6    2.1 3.5 1.8 0.1 0.0
13-7 13.1% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 86.9% 86.9 70.8 13.1 2.6 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 5.7% 53.5% 44.0% 9.6% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 0.1 2.7 17.1%
17-3 19.4% 42.3% 38.7% 3.7% 11.2 0.3 6.0 2.0 11.2 6.0%
16-4 29.6% 35.4% 34.1% 1.3% 11.5 0.1 5.5 4.8 0.0 19.1 1.9%
15-5 26.3% 30.1% 29.9% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 2.9 4.9 0.1 18.4 0.2%
14-6 13.4% 26.1% 25.9% 0.1% 11.8 0.8 2.5 0.2 9.9 0.2%
13-7 4.7% 18.1% 18.1% 11.9 0.2 0.6 0.1 3.9
12-8 0.8% 16.8% 16.8% 12.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 34.1% 32.4% 1.7% 11.4 65.9 2.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 10.4 0.8 3.0 12.7 25.9 54.6 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 17.5% 10.9 1.0 16.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 15.3% 10.8 0.9 1.7 11.8 0.9