Belmont
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#130
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#105
Pace76.9#25
Improvement-0.4#203

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#76
First Shot+4.4#69
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#229
Layup/Dunks+0.5#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#26
Freethrows-3.3#349
Improvement+0.2#158

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#229
First Shot-2.0#244
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#183
Layups/Dunks-0.7#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#288
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#277
Freethrows+2.1#48
Improvement-0.6#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.4% 10.0% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 12.7
.500 or above 88.6% 96.3% 86.5%
.500 or above in Conference 74.5% 88.9% 70.7%
Conference Champion 6.4% 16.3% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.4% 10.0% 5.4%
Second Round0.8% 1.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 38 - 710 - 11
Quad 410 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 115   Furman L 74-76 57%     0 - 1 -2.0 +1.5 -3.5
  Nov 12, 2024 108   @ Lipscomb W 80-79 30%     1 - 1 +8.2 +12.2 -4.0
  Nov 15, 2024 268   @ Air Force W 79-71 67%     2 - 1 +5.2 +12.6 -6.6
  Nov 19, 2024 284   Oral Roberts W 90-80 86%     3 - 1 +0.4 +1.2 -1.8
  Nov 26, 2024 157   Loyola Marymount L 63-77 57%     3 - 2 -14.0 -11.2 -2.1
  Nov 27, 2024 202   Tulane W 89-66 64%     4 - 2 +21.1 +17.0 +4.6
  Nov 29, 2024 230   Gardner-Webb W 83-74 79%     5 - 2 +2.3 +0.3 +1.4
  Dec 04, 2024 141   Illinois St. W 99-97 OT 64%     6 - 2 1 - 0 -0.1 +10.1 -10.4
  Dec 07, 2024 129   Middle Tennessee W 82-79 61%     7 - 2 +1.8 +6.0 -4.3
  Dec 14, 2024 216   @ Richmond W 93-86 56%     8 - 2 +7.1 +12.0 -5.5
  Dec 19, 2024 75   UC Irvine L 84-92 39%     8 - 3 -3.5 +8.4 -11.1
  Dec 29, 2024 80   @ Drake L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 01, 2025 98   @ Northern Iowa L 75-81 28%    
  Jan 04, 2025 192   Illinois-Chicago W 85-79 72%    
  Jan 08, 2025 196   Southern Illinois W 82-76 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. L 87-88 45%    
  Jan 14, 2025 224   Valparaiso W 86-78 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 315   @ Evansville W 82-74 76%    
  Jan 21, 2025 78   Bradley L 78-81 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 138   @ Murray St. L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 29, 2025 141   @ Illinois St. L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 02, 2025 315   Evansville W 85-71 89%    
  Feb 05, 2025 78   @ Bradley L 75-84 22%    
  Feb 08, 2025 171   Missouri St. W 78-73 69%    
  Feb 12, 2025 224   @ Valparaiso W 83-81 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 196   @ Southern Illinois W 80-79 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 98   Northern Iowa L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 150   Indiana St. W 90-85 66%    
  Feb 26, 2025 171   @ Missouri St. L 75-76 47%    
  Mar 02, 2025 138   Murray St. W 77-74 62%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.0 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.9 6.8 3.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 15.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.3 5.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.5 6.7 10.4 12.7 14.3 14.2 12.3 9.2 6.3 3.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 94.6% 0.5    0.4 0.0
17-3 82.6% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
16-4 57.3% 2.0    1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 27.9% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 8.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 3.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 34.0% 30.2% 3.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.4%
18-2 0.5% 27.3% 26.9% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6%
17-3 1.5% 23.3% 23.3% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2
16-4 3.5% 19.6% 19.6% 12.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8
15-5 6.3% 15.4% 15.4% 12.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 5.3
14-6 9.2% 11.8% 11.8% 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 8.2
13-7 12.3% 8.7% 8.7% 12.7 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 11.2
12-8 14.2% 6.3% 6.3% 13.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 13.3
11-9 14.3% 4.0% 4.0% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 13.7
10-10 12.7% 2.3% 2.3% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.4
9-11 10.4% 1.4% 1.4% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.2
8-12 6.7% 1.2% 1.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
7-13 4.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
6-14 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.3
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 93.6 0.0%