Boston University
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.4 #290
Expected Predictive Rating -9.8 #325
Pace 60.4 #358
Improvement -2.0 #271

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #166 B- D+ D+ D+ C+
Defense #351 D- C F+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #253 1.17 #157 -1.2 #229
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #287 0.82 #78 -1.4 #252
Three Pointers 49% #34 1.10 #67 +5.9 #24
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #80 +3.3 #79
Freethrows 0.27 #281 71% #234 0.19 #279
Second Chance 25.5% #316 1.03 #176 0.26 #284
Turnovers 18.1% #277
Total Offense -0.1 #166

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.18 #213 -1.3 #218
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #168 0.94 #361 -2.0 #325
Three Pointers 39% #240 1.23 #364 -3.2 #314
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #351 -6.6 #352
Freethrows 0.30 #169 73% #210 0.21 #171
Second Chance 30.3% #164 1.06 #236 0.32 #198
Turnovers 12.6% #353
Total Defense -7.2 #351

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #121 0.2% #179
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.4% #82 12.6% #359
Possession Length 19.2 #340 17.2 #178
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #355 0.15 #116
Improvement -2.8 #326 +0.9 #128

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 6.5% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 2.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 21.3% 34.6% 9.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.1% 9.2% 34.1%
First Four4.9% 5.6% 4.3%
First Round3.2% 3.9% 2.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Away) - 48.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 411 - 1212 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 256 @Northeastern W 76 - 75 OT 32% -2  1 - 0 -1 -6 D D+ D- +4 A C C
 Fri, Nov 7 63 @Northwestern L 52 - 76 5% -18  1 - 1 -12 -8 C+ F F -8 D- A- F+
 Wed, Nov 12 280 Brown W 90 - 77 59% +14  2 - 1 +3 +25 A+ A+ D -21 F+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 201 Merrimack L 79 - 91 43% -10  2 - 2 -18 +12 A+ C A- -31 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 183 @Columbia L 49 - 54 20% -12  2 - 3 -4 -15 F D- A +11 B A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 165 Harvard W 75 - 74 25% -2  3 - 3 +1 +9 A+ C F -8 F+ D+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 112 @Penn St. L 87 - 96 11% -12  3 - 4 -3 +23 A+ B- A -27 F F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 193 @Northern Kentucky L 65 - 74 22% +2  3 - 5 -8 +0 B D+ F -10 A F C
 Sat, Dec 6 320 @New Hampshire L 82 - 88 OT 48% +6  3 - 6 -13 +0 D+ B D+ -13 F C F
 Wed, Dec 10 346 Maine L 59 - 69 76% -7  3 - 7 -25 -9 F B- F -17 F A C+
 Sat, Dec 13 229 @Dartmouth L 64 - 77 26% -9  3 - 8 -14 -5 D D D+ -10 D- B+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 314 Umass Lowell W 88 - 76 68% +9  4 - 8 -0 +16 A+ A+ F+ -15 F D D-
 Wed, Dec 31 179 @Navy L 77 - 82 19% -5  4 - 9 0 - 1 -3 +10 B F+ A+ -14 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 244 American L 62 - 64 51% -5  4 - 10 0 - 2 -10 -2 F B A -8 D- A D-
 Wed, Jan 7 310 @Lafayette W 83 - 67 44% +10  5 - 10 1 - 2 +10 +13 A D C+ -2 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 336 Army W 100 - 91 74% +8  6 - 10 2 - 2 -5 +21 A+ D+ D -26 F F+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 301 Lehigh L 91 - 93 OT 64% -6  6 - 11 2 - 3 -13 +6 A- F B -19 D- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 318 @Loyola Maryland L 57 - 74 47% -1  6 - 12 2 - 4 -24 -21 F F F -3 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 21 310 Lafayette W 77 - 73 OT 67% -2  7 - 12 3 - 4 -8 -3 B- F+ F -5 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 222 @Colgate L 79 - 80 OT 25% +3  7 - 13 3 - 5 -1 +2 B+ F D- -3 D+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 28 179 Navy L 50 - 58 38% +2  7 - 14 3 - 6 -12 -10 D C- F -4 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 315 @Bucknell L 97 - 103 2OT 47% -3  7 - 15 3 - 7 -12 +14 D+ B- A+ -25 F F+ F
 Mon, Feb 2 323 @Holy Cross L 70 - 71 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 318 Loyola Maryland W 77 - 72 69%
 Wed, Feb 11 336 @Army W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 315 Bucknell W 74 - 69 69%
 Mon, Feb 16 222 Colgate L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 301 @Lehigh L 70 - 72 42%
 Wed, Feb 25 323 Holy Cross W 73 - 67 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 244 @American L 68 - 74 29%
Totals 11 - 19 7 - 11 -7 +0 B- D+ D+ -7 D- C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 2.2 0.4 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 7.0 2.7 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 1.0 10.4 6.0 0.4 17.7 5th
6th 0.1 6.7 9.1 0.7 16.5 6th
7th 1.9 11.0 2.2 0.0 15.1 7th
8th 0.4 7.3 5.3 0.1 13.1 8th
9th 0.1 3.6 7.0 0.7 11.4 9th
10th 0.5 2.6 5.1 1.9 0.0 10.1 10th
Total 0.5 2.7 9.1 18.2 24.6 23.6 14.8 5.6 0.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.9% 15.4% 15.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
10-8 5.6% 12.1% 12.1% 16.0 0.7 4.9
9-9 14.8% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 1.4 13.4
8-10 23.6% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 1.4 22.1
7-11 24.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 1.0 23.6
6-12 18.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.6 17.7
5-13 9.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 8.9
4-14 2.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 2.7
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 16.0 94.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.2 7.4 66.7 25.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.2%