Butler
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.3 #66
Expected Predictive Rating +9.3 #66
Pace 72.4 #87
Improvement -5.6 #350

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #61 B- A- B- B+ B
Defense #99 C+ B- C A- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #47 1.20 #117 +4.0 #53
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #303 0.80 #109 -1.9 #281
Three Pointers 41% #172 1.05 #130 +0.9 #144
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #93 +2.9 #93
Freethrows 0.37 #12 71% #222 0.26 #33
Second Chance 36.4% #35 1.20 #21 0.44 #17
Turnovers 14.8% #66
Total Offense +5.8 #61

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #88 1.17 #192 -2.4 #266
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #110 0.65 #25 +0.5 #149
Three Pointers 35% #328 0.96 #104 +3.8 #41
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #111 +1.9 #112
Freethrows 0.21 #8 72% #132 0.15 #13
Second Chance 29.1% #117 0.93 #60 0.27 #76
Turnovers 17.0% #158
Total Defense +2.6 #99

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #42 0.1% #175
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.5% #117 -3.9% #95
Possession Length 15.8 #46 17.9 #282
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #88 0.18 #201
Improvement -1.5 #271 -4.1 #349

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 16.0% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.2% 15.0% 5.5%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 10.7
.500 or above 83.6% 94.2% 76.6%
.500 or above in Conference 16.3% 28.8% 8.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 2.0% 12.2%
First Four6.0% 9.2% 3.9%
First Round6.7% 10.9% 4.0%
Second Round2.0% 3.5% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Providence (Away) - 39.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 33 - 7
Quad 24 - 67 - 13
Quad 36 - 213 - 15
Quad 45 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 332 Southern Indiana W 88 - 58 97% +18  1 - 0 +16 +7 B- B D+ +7 B A- D+
 Sat, Nov 8 340 IU Indianapolis W 112 - 80 97% +14  2 - 0 +17 +5 D A+ C +5 B+ A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 355 Chicago St. W 98 - 66 98% +24  3 - 0 +15 +12 B- A+ C- +1 F+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 39 @SMU L 85 - 87 22% +0  3 - 1 +14 +13 A+ B- F +2 D+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 21 91 South Carolina W 79 - 72 59% +7  4 - 1 +13 +10 C- A+ C+ +3 A+ B+ F+
 Sun, Nov 23 25 Virginia W 80 - 73 23% +5  5 - 1 +23 +15 A+ C D+ +9 A+ B+ D
 Fri, Nov 28 144 Wright St. W 94 - 69 83% +5  6 - 1 +23 +12 A A+ B+ +9 B A C+
 Tue, Dec 2 237 Eastern Michigan W 84 - 68 92% +7  7 - 1 +9 +14 A- A+ C- -5 C+ C- B-
 Sat, Dec 6 62 Boise St. L 68 - 77 59% -2  7 - 2 -3 +1 D A A -5 A B- D-
 Sat, Dec 13 67 Providence W 113 - 110 2OT 62% -0  8 - 2 1 - 0 +8 +18 B A A+ -10 C B+ F+
 Tue, Dec 16 9 @Connecticut L 60 - 79 8% -10  8 - 3 1 - 1 +5 +0 F+ B A+ +5 B- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 63 Northwestern W 61 - 58 48% +4  9 - 3 +12 -6 D B- D- +18 A+ A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 22 324 NJIT W 101 - 52 97% +29  10 - 3 +36 +20 A+ A+ B+ +14 C+ A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 58 @Creighton L 85 - 89 35% -7  10 - 4 1 - 2 +8 +13 C A- B- -4 C- F B
 Sat, Jan 3 32 Villanova L 67 - 85 39% -3  10 - 5 1 - 3 -7 -2 F A+ C -5 D A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 6 19 St. John's L 70 - 84 28% -4  10 - 6 1 - 4 +1 +2 A+ F+ F -2 C A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 83 @Xavier L 75 - 89 45% -11  10 - 7 1 - 5 -4 +4 D A+ C -8 C F C
 Sat, Jan 17 53 @Seton Hall W 77 - 66 32% +6  11 - 7 2 - 5 +24 +18 A- F A+ +6 A+ B- B+
 Tue, Jan 20 94 DePaul W 87 - 80 70% +2  12 - 7 3 - 5 +10 +15 A+ A+ B+ -6 B+ F+ C
 Fri, Jan 23 95 Marquette W 87 - 76 71% +5  13 - 7 4 - 5 +14 +15 C+ A+ A -2 C- F+ A
 Wed, Jan 28 19 @St. John's L 70 - 92 13% -13  13 - 8 4 - 6 -1 +15 B- C+ A+ -19 F D F
 Sat, Jan 31 78 Georgetown L 64 - 77 65% -5  13 - 9 4 - 7 -9 -2 D D A+ -8 F A+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 67 @Providence L 86 - 89 40%
 Sat, Feb 7 95 @Marquette L 79 - 80 49%
 Wed, Feb 11 9 Connecticut L 69 - 79 18%
 Sun, Feb 15 53 Seton Hall W 72 - 71 54%
 Wed, Feb 18 78 @Georgetown L 76 - 78 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 83 Xavier W 83 - 78 67%
 Wed, Feb 25 32 @Villanova L 69 - 78 21%
 Wed, Mar 4 58 Creighton W 80 - 78 59%
 Sat, Mar 7 94 @DePaul L 75 - 76 48%
Totals 17 - 14 8 - 12 +8 +6 B- A- B- +3 C+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 4.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 1.8 9.1 5.2 0.9 0.0 17.1 5th
6th 1.2 12.1 8.7 1.1 0.0 23.2 6th
7th 0.2 6.9 9.3 0.9 0.0 17.3 7th
8th 0.0 2.7 9.5 1.6 0.0 13.8 8th
9th 0.6 5.5 3.4 0.1 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 2.3 3.4 0.3 6.0 10th
11th 0.6 1.6 0.4 2.6 11th
Total 0.6 4.5 12.2 21.3 24.9 20.3 11.0 4.2 0.9 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.9% 80.2% 1.1% 79.1% 9.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 80.0%
11-9 4.2% 54.6% 2.8% 51.8% 10.3 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.9 53.3%
10-10 11.0% 35.0% 2.8% 32.2% 10.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 0.0 7.2 33.1%
9-11 20.3% 11.5% 1.3% 10.2% 10.9 0.1 0.3 1.9 0.1 17.9 10.3%
8-12 24.9% 2.6% 0.4% 2.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 24.3 2.1%
7-13 21.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 11.2 0.1 0.0 21.2 0.1%
6-14 12.2% 0.4% 0.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 12.1
5-15 4.5% 0.4% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 4.5
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.1% 1.0% 9.1% 10.6 89.9 9.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%