Butler
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.4 #57
Expected Predictive Rating +10.3 #59
Pace 74.2 #58
Improvement -4.4 #354

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #65 B A+ C+ C+ B+
Defense #74 B B+ C A D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 1.23 #103 +4.2 #53
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #305 0.74 #184 -2.3 #293
Three Pointers 42% #155 1.09 #83 +2.5 #104
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #69 +4.3 #69
Freethrows 19.5 #77 69% #287 13.5 #129
Second Chance 37.8% #26 1.25 #13 0.47 #9
Turnovers 16.2% #147
Total Offense +5.5 #65

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #20 1.12 #137 -3.7 #300
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #127 0.57 #9 +1.4 #89
Three Pointers 32% #355 0.93 #85 +5.9 #17
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #72 +3.6 #72
Freethrows 12.8 #21 70% #94 9.0 #348
Second Chance 28.0% #87 0.91 #35 0.25 #40
Turnovers 16.5% #188
Total Defense +3.8 #74

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #50 0.8% #246
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.1% #85 -7.8% #57
Possession Length 15.4 #34 18.2 #309
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #65 0.19 #237
Improvement -2.8 #331 -1.6 #277

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.7% 29.6% 14.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.3% 28.0% 13.5%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 10.1
.500 or above 84.9% 92.5% 76.2%
.500 or above in Conference 36.1% 48.1% 22.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 2.0% 8.8%
First Four8.6% 10.2% 6.6%
First Round18.1% 24.1% 11.2%
Second Round7.0% 9.8% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.8% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 53.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 33 - 9
Quad 26 - 48 - 13
Quad 35 - 113 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 333 Southern Indiana W 88 - 58 97%  +18  1 - 0 +16 +5 C B+ D +10 A A- C-
 Sat, Nov 8 355 IU Indianapolis W 112 - 80 98%  +14  2 - 0 +16 +5 D A+ C +4 B+ A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 353 Chicago St. W 98 - 66 98%  +24  3 - 0 +16 +13 A- A+ C- +2 F C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 28 @SMU L 85 - 87 22%  +0  3 - 1 +15 +13 A+ B F +3 D B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 72 South Carolina W 79 - 72 55%  +7  4 - 1 +15 +11 C A+ C +4 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 22 Virginia W 80 - 73 26%  +5  5 - 1 +23 +15 A+ D D- +8 A+ B+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 148 Wright St. W 94 - 69 86%  +5  6 - 1 +23 +13 A+ A+ A+ +8 B A B-
 Tue, Dec 2 197 Eastern Michigan W 84 - 68 91%  +7  7 - 1 +11 +15 A+ A+ C- -3 C+ C B-
 Sat, Dec 6 63 Boise St. L 68 - 77 63%  -2  7 - 2 -3 +3 C A+ A -7 A+ C F
 Sat, Dec 13 66 Providence W 113 - 110 2OT 63%  -0  8 - 2 1 - 0 +9 +19 A- A+ A+ -11 C B+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 5 @Connecticut L 60 - 79 9%  -10  8 - 3 1 - 1 +6 +0 F A- A+ +5 B+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 60 Northwestern W 61 - 58 51%  +4  9 - 3 +12 -6 D C+ D- +19 A+ A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 22 351 NJIT W 101 - 52 98%  +29  10 - 3 +33 +19 A+ A+ A- +12 C A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 30 37 @Creighton L 85 - 89 25%  -7  10 - 4 1 - 2 +12 +17 B A+ C+ -4 C F B
 Sat, Jan 3 31 Villanova L 67 - 85 43%  -3  10 - 5 1 - 3 -7 -2 F A+ C- -5 D A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 6 21 St. John's L 70 - 84 35%  +1  10 - 6 1 - 4 -1 +2 A+ F F -3 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 97 @Xavier W 79 - 78 54% 
 Sat, Jan 17 53 @Seton Hall L 69 - 73 37% 
 Tue, Jan 20 102 DePaul W 77 - 70 76% 
 Fri, Jan 23 110 Marquette W 82 - 74 78% 
 Wed, Jan 28 21 @St. John's L 75 - 85 18% 
 Sat, Jan 31 103 Georgetown W 83 - 75 76% 
 Wed, Feb 4 66 @Providence L 85 - 87 41% 
 Sat, Feb 7 110 @Marquette W 79 - 77 57% 
 Wed, Feb 11 5 Connecticut L 70 - 79 20% 
 Sun, Feb 15 53 Seton Hall W 72 - 70 58% 
 Wed, Feb 18 103 @Georgetown W 80 - 78 56% 
 Sat, Feb 21 97 Xavier W 82 - 75 74% 
 Wed, Feb 25 31 @Villanova L 69 - 77 24% 
 Wed, Mar 4 37 Creighton L 77 - 78 47% 
 Sat, Mar 7 102 @DePaul W 74 - 73 55% 
Totals 18 - 13 9 - 11 +9 +6 B A+ C+ +4 B B+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.1 1.0 0.1 8.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.7 6.3 5.5 1.7 0.1 16.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.4 9.1 7.0 1.8 0.2 23.0 6th
7th 0.6 4.6 9.0 5.7 1.3 0.1 21.3 7th
8th 0.3 3.0 5.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.7 1.9 0.2 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.2 0.2 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.5 8.6 13.1 16.9 18.1 15.5 10.7 6.0 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 28.6% 0.0    0.0
15-5 11.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 97.1% 2.9% 94.3% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
14-6 1.0% 98.0% 11.7% 86.2% 7.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.7%
13-7 2.7% 91.0% 6.8% 84.2% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 90.4%
12-8 6.0% 75.9% 4.4% 71.5% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.0 1.4 74.8%
11-9 10.7% 56.5% 3.0% 53.5% 10.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.2 0.0 4.6 55.2%
10-10 15.5% 35.4% 2.4% 33.0% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.0 0.1 10.0 33.8%
9-11 18.1% 13.5% 1.4% 12.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 0.1 15.6 12.3%
8-12 16.9% 2.4% 1.0% 1.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 16.5 1.4%
7-13 13.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 11.2 0.1 0.0 13.0 0.0%
6-14 8.6% 0.5% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6
5-15 4.5% 0.3% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 4.5
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 22.7% 1.8% 20.9% 9.8 77.3 21.3%