Butler
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.7 75
Results Rating +8.4 72
Pace 70.2 132
Improvement -6.3 358

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 60 B- B+ B+ B+ B
Defense C+ 123 C+ B C A C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 30 C+ 60% 127 +4.4 41
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 264 B- 41% 72 -1.6 260
Three Pointers 40% 210 C+ 35% 122 +0.3 166
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 45 C+ +1.9 105
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 85
Second Chance B 35.5% 47 B- 1.11 70 B+ 0.39 42
Turnovers B+ 14.2% 36
Freethrows A- 0.37 18 C- 71% 221 B+ 0.26 39
Total Offense B +5.8 60

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 84 C- 12.0% 248
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 75 C+ 4.8% 167
Three Pointers B+ 91% 34 D 1.5% 314
Total B 63% 50 D 6.7% 297

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 149 C 58% 186 +0.7 207
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 102 C+ 37% 117 +0.5 227
Three Pointers 38% 271 C+ 33% 138 -2.1 99
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 131 C+ -0.7 152
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 143
Second Chance B- 28.0% 87 B 0.94 56 B 0.26 58
Turnovers C 17.2% 152
Freethrows A- 0.22 10 B 70% 66 A 0.16 9
Total Defense C+ +1.9 123

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 45 C- 10.0% 210
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 239 B- 7.1% 63
Three Pointers C+ 82% 108 D 0.2% 316
Total B 50% 70 C 5.6% 168

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 67 18.1 305
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 73 0.15 95
Improvement -2.0 #286 -4.3 #346

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 90 75 61
Results Rating Rank 97 70 58
Conference Record 6 - 14 7 - 13 9 - 11
Conference Finish 9 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 2% 0%
Average Seed 11.2 11.0 11.5
.500 or above 81% 100% 77%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 6% 0% 7%
First Four0% 2% 0%
First Round1% 2% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 17.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 8
Quad 24 - 76 - 14
Quad 36 - 112 - 16
Quad 45 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 339 Southern Indiana W 88 - 58 97% +18  97% 1 - 0 A- +15 C+ +2 B- C+ D+ A +11 B+ A D+
 Sat, Nov 8 325 IU Indianapolis W 112 - 80 96% +14  84% 2 - 0 A +19 C+ +3 D A+ C A- +8 B+ A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 347 Chicago St. W 98 - 66 98% +24  98% 3 - 0 A- +16 A- +10 B- A+ C B +4 F+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 31 @SMU L 85 - 87 17% +0  57% 3 - 1 A- +16 A- +9 A+ B- F B+ +7 C- B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 92 South Carolina W 79 - 72 56% +7  97% 4 - 1 B+ +13 B+ +8 C- A+ B- B+ +5 A B+ F+
 Sun, Nov 23 22 Virginia W 80 - 73 18% +5  97% 5 - 1 A+ +24 A +14 A+ C D+ A +10 A+ B D
 Fri, Nov 28 153 Wright St. W 94 - 69 83% +5  48% 6 - 1 A +22 B+ +9 A- A+ B A+ +11 B+ A- C+
 Tue, Dec 2 248 Eastern Michigan W 84 - 68 92% +7  85% 7 - 1 B +8 A +12 A- A+ C- C- -3 C+ C C
 Sat, Dec 6 64 Boise St. L 68 - 77 58% -2  30% 7 - 2 C- -3 D+ -3 D A A- C -1 A+ C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 61 Providence W 113 - 110 2OT 57% -0  36% 8 - 2 1 - 0 B +9 A+ +15 B+ A A+ D- -7 C A- F
 Tue, Dec 16 9 @Connecticut L 60 - 79 8% -10  20% 8 - 3 1 - 1 C+ +4 D+ -4 F B A+ A- +8 B F A
 Sat, Dec 20 69 Northwestern W 61 - 58 47% +4  85% 9 - 3 B+ +11 F+ -8 D- B- D- A+ +20 A+ A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 22 318 NJIT W 101 - 52 96% +29  98% 10 - 3 A+ +36 A+ +17 A+ A+ A- A+ +17 B- A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 30 63 @Creighton L 85 - 89 35% -7  1% 10 - 4 1 - 2 B- +8 A- +11 C A- B- C- -3 C- F B
 Sat, Jan 3 35 Villanova L 67 - 85 36% -3  47% 10 - 5 1 - 3 D+ -7 D -5 F A+ C+ C- -2 D A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 6 19 St. John's L 70 - 84 24% -4  30% 10 - 6 1 - 4 C +1 C+ +2 A+ F+ F C -1 C- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 84 @Xavier L 75 - 89 41% -11  0% 10 - 7 1 - 5 C- -4 C +1 D- A+ C- D+ -4 C+ F C
 Sat, Jan 17 54 @Seton Hall W 77 - 66 30% +6  72% 11 - 7 2 - 5 A+ +24 A+ +17 A- F A+ A- +8 A+ C+ B+
 Tue, Jan 20 93 DePaul W 87 - 80 68% +2  47% 12 - 7 3 - 5 B +10 A +13 A+ A B+ D+ -4 B+ F+ C
 Fri, Jan 23 88 Marquette W 87 - 76 66% +5  93% 13 - 7 4 - 5 B+ +14 A +13 C+ A+ A C+ +1 C- F+ A
 Wed, Jan 28 19 @St. John's L 70 - 92 11% -13  0% 13 - 8 4 - 6 C -1 A+ +15 B C+ A+ F -18 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 31 71 Georgetown L 64 - 77 61% -5  11% 13 - 9 4 - 7 D -8 D+ -4 D D A+ D -5 F A+ B-
 Wed, Feb 4 61 @Providence L 87 - 97 2OT 34% +0  51% 13 - 10 4 - 8 C+ +2 C+ +3 C+ C+ B C -0 C A D
 Sat, Feb 7 88 @Marquette L 55 - 70 43% -8  13% 13 - 11 4 - 9 D+ -6 F -13 D F F+ B+ +7 F A+ B+
 Wed, Feb 11 9 Connecticut L 70 - 80 19% -3  24% 13 - 12 4 - 10 B- +7 A +14 A+ B- A+ F+ -9 C F D-
 Sun, Feb 15 54 Seton Hall L 56 - 63 53% +1  50% 13 - 13 4 - 11 C -0 D- -8 D F A+ A- +7 D+ A+ A
 Wed, Feb 18 71 @Georgetown W 93 - 89 38% +9  99% 14 - 13 5 - 11 A- +15 A+ +25 A+ C+ A+ F -10 F C- D
 Sat, Feb 21 84 Xavier W 80 - 75 64% +10  98% 15 - 13 6 - 11 B +9 B+ +8 C- C+ A+ C+ +1 C+ B+ D+
 Wed, Feb 25 35 @Villanova L 69 - 79 17%
 Wed, Mar 4 63 Creighton W 79 - 77 58%
 Sat, Mar 7 93 @DePaul L 73 - 74 45%
Totals 16 - 15 7 - 13 +8 B +6 C+ C+ B C+ +2 C+ C- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C+ B- C+ C+ 45% 30% 40% B B- B B- B+ B+ A- C- B+ C+ C C+ C+ C+ 40% 23% 38% C+ C+ B- B B C A- B A
1.17 60% 41% 35% +2 +1 1.08 35% 1.1 .39 14% .37 71% .26 1.06 58% 37% 33% -1 0 1.00 28% 0.9 .26 17% .22 70% .26
Nov
5		 Southern Indiana C+ D- D+ A+ C 64% 11% 25% A B- B+ D C+ D+ A+ D- A+ A A+ A+ C+ B+ 33% 22% 45% C B+ A A+ A D+ B D- C+
1.17 50% 33% 54% +2 +3 1.11 40% 0.9 .36 17% .47 69% .32 0.77 37% 15% 31% -14 -1 0.72 20% 0.6 .12 16% .27 71% .19
Nov
8		 IU Indianapolis C+ A C F D- 52% 13% 35% C+ D A+ B+ A+ C A+ F A+ A- C+ A+ A+ A 48% 23% 29% D- B+ C A+ A+ B D+ C- D+
1.24 74% 38% 19% 0 +2 1.07 56% 1.3 .73 19% .59 67% .40 0.89 58% 25% 25% -7 0 0.88 28% 0.6 .16 19% .20 73% .15
Nov
11		 Chicago St. A- F F A+ B- 26% 2% 72% C+ B- C+ A+ A+ C A+ D- A+ B D C F F 42% 40% 19% C F+ A+ F C A+ B- A+ A-
1.34 50% 0% 44% +8 +1 1.21 38% 1.9 .72 19% .51 70% .35 0.90 59% 38% 40% +2 -2 1.02 19% 1.3 .26 22% .23 62% .14
Nov
15		 SMU A- A- F A+ A+ 35% 17% 48% B A+ A+ F B- F A+ F A- B+ D D- B B- 63% 15% 22% F C- D- A+ B+ A+ B B- B
1.14 67% 22% 48% +10 0 1.23 43% 0.8 .32 23% .40 61% .24 1.17 68% 50% 33% +8 +3 1.22 42% 0.8 .32 21% .26 73% .19
Nov
21		 South Carolina B+ C+ D- D C 43% 35% 22% D C- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ F A+ B+ C+ A+ A A+ 40% 18% 42% C- A A C- B+ F+ D+ A+ B-
1.15 60% 31% 30% -3 -1 0.93 43% 1.5 .66 15% .58 59% .34 1.05 59% 20% 26% -8 0 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 10% .36 68% .24
Nov
23		 Virginia A C+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 22% 30% A A+ A+ F C D+ A+ D- A+ A A- A- A+ A+ 47% 11% 42% D A+ B- B B D B+ A+ A+
1.16 55% 60% 43% +7 +1 1.17 40% 0.6 .23 19% .52 69% .36 1.06 50% 33% 26% -9 +2 0.87 38% 1.0 .38 13% .25 47% .12
Nov
28		 Wright St. B+ A- A+ D- A- 52% 17% 31% B+ A- B A+ A+ B A+ F B- A+ B+ C+ B+ A- 54% 18% 28% F+ B+ A- B- A- C+ A+ A- A+
1.25 68% 67% 29% +8 +1 1.20 35% 1.5 .52 15% .40 58% .23 0.92 52% 36% 29% -6 +1 0.93 25% 1.0 .25 17% .05 67% .03
Dec
2		 Eastern Michigan A F A A+ A- 51% 17% 32% B A- A A+ A+ C- B- A- B+ C- A A+ F B+ 59% 16% 25% F C+ C+ C C C C+ F D
1.27 42% 50% 60% +6 +1 1.17 39% 1.6 .64 17% .34 79% .27 1.03 47% 0% 54% -5 +2 0.96 26% 1.0 .26 18% .24 92% .22
Dec
6		 Boise St. D+ C- C F F+ 52% 19% 29% A D C+ A+ A A- B- F C- C C+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 23% 23% C+ A+ F A+ C+ D- F D+ F
1.01 56% 40% 20% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.6 .37 12% .29 59% .17 1.15 57% 25% 25% -7 +1 0.90 42% 0.8 .32 12% .44 81% .35
Dec
13		 Providence A+ A F C B 48% 15% 37% A B+ A+ C A A+ A+ C A+ D- B- D- F C 39% 16% 46% C+ C C- A+ A- F A+ C- A+
1.32 67% 22% 35% +2 +2 1.10 43% 1.0 .43 8% .48 71% .34 1.28 59% 45% 41% +6 +1 1.16 37% 0.9 .33 10% .23 78% .18
Dec
16		 Connecticut D+ F F F F 51% 6% 43% A+ F C+ A- B A+ A- A A A- D A+ D B+ 49% 20% 31% C B F D+ F A A- A+ A
0.86 35% 0% 23% -21 +3 0.65 27% 1.1 .30 14% .40 79% .32 1.13 68% 20% 38% +3 +1 1.10 47% 1.2 .56 21% .24 62% .15
Dec
20		 Northwestern F+ A- F F D- 29% 20% 51% C D- C+ B- B- D- D+ C C- A+ B- B+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% A A+ B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F A+
0.91 67% 20% 23% -9 -1 0.82 33% 1.0 .33 21% .26 71% .19 0.87 56% 33% 22% -8 -2 0.81 24% 0.8 .19 13% .16 89% .14
Dec
22		 NJIT A+ A+ B+ A- A+ 42% 13% 44% B- A+ B- A+ A+ A- A+ B A+ A+ C+ A+ A- B+ 45% 21% 34% F+ B- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.39 73% 43% 39% +10 +1 1.25 37% 1.5 .53 11% .49 75% .37 0.72 54% 18% 28% -9 0 0.85 8% 0.7 .05 19% .19 45% .09
Dec
30		 Creighton A- C- F C+ C- 45% 17% 38% A C A+ F+ A- B- A A A+ C- C C D C 38% 9% 53% F+ C- D F F B B- F D
1.17 56% 20% 35% -4 +1 0.97 46% 0.9 .39 14% .30 79% .24 1.23 62% 40% 38% +5 +1 1.15 32% 1.3 .42 17% .25 93% .23
Jan
3		 Villanova D D+ F+ F F 37% 19% 44% B F B+ A+ A+ C+ C+ A+ A C- F C D+ D- 40% 25% 36% B D A+ C+ A+ B- D+ C+ D+
0.94 53% 30% 17% -15 0 0.73 36% 1.5 .56 20% .25 93% .23 1.20 81% 38% 37% +11 0 1.23 23% 1.0 .23 15% .33 70% .23
Jan
6		 St. John's C+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 38% 27% 36% D+ A+ D- F F+ F A A+ A+ C D C- F+ D- 37% 33% 30% A+ C- A+ F A+ F A+ C A+
0.98 71% 33% 44% +9 -1 1.18 22% 0.7 .15 29% .36 83% .30 1.18 64% 40% 39% +5 -2 1.08 20% 1.4 .29 7% .23 73% .17
Jan
14		 Xavier C D- A+ F F+ 39% 16% 45% B D- C A+ A+ C- B A+ A- D+ F A- B+ B- 41% 21% 38% D- C+ F C F C A- F B
1.03 50% 50% 26% -7 +1 0.90 26% 1.7 .43 18% .32 79% .25 1.22 72% 31% 30% +2 0 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 12% .19 83% .16
Jan
17		 Seton Hall A+ A+ A+ F A- 42% 16% 42% B- A- F F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A- C- A+ A+ A+ 34% 32% 34% A+ A+ F A+ C+ B+ F B F
1.15 67% 57% 22% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.6 .10 12% .69 80% .56 0.98 59% 25% 18% -12 -2 0.74 49% 0.7 .35 19% .46 68% .31
Jan
20		 DePaul A A A- A+ A+ 41% 25% 34% C+ A+ C+ A+ A B+ A+ D+ A+ D+ A+ F B A- 25% 16% 59% C+ B+ C- F F+ C D+ F F
1.21 67% 45% 47% +12 0 1.25 31% 1.4 .42 17% .52 68% .35 1.11 38% 63% 30% -5 0 0.92 32% 1.4 .44 17% .35 86% .30
Jan
23		 Marquette A C+ A+ F C 53% 13% 34% A C+ A- A+ A+ A A+ C A+ C+ F F A+ D+ 42% 13% 44% B+ C- F D+ F+ A B+ B+ A-
1.24 60% 50% 25% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.3 .52 16% .52 74% .39 1.08 77% 71% 17% +2 +1 1.08 38% 1.1 .41 20% .25 64% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 St. John's A+ F A+ A C+ 54% 13% 33% A B B- C C+ A+ A+ F A F F D- F F 40% 21% 38% B+ F D C- D- F A+ D- A+
1.12 40% 50% 40% -5 +2 0.96 32% 0.9 .29 10% .53 50% .27 1.47 71% 45% 45% +13 0 1.29 42% 1.2 .52 8% .24 79% .19
Jan
31		 Georgetown D+ F F B+ D- 43% 24% 33% B- D A- F D A+ B- A+ A D F+ F F F 31% 29% 40% A- F A+ F+ A+ B- A D A-
0.99 43% 25% 38% -8 0 0.86 37% 0.6 .23 11% .31 89% .28 1.19 67% 50% 53% +17 -2 1.33 18% 1.3 .23 15% .26 79% .20
Feb
4		 Providence C+ D- A+ C- C 47% 21% 32% B C+ C B C+ B A+ D A+ C F+ D- C C- 33% 20% 47% B+ C D- A+ A D F A+ F
1.10 48% 58% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 1.1 .31 13% .49 68% .33 1.23 72% 45% 35% +7 0 1.15 40% 0.8 .30 13% .57 67% .38
Feb
7		 Marquette F F+ F B- F+ 47% 16% 38% B D A- F F F+ B- F D+ B+ A F F F 37% 4% 59% C+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+
0.82 48% 14% 35% -8 +1 0.89 40% 0.4 .14 24% .29 60% .18 1.05 47% 50% 47% +8 +2 1.22 13% 0.5 .07 18% .18 60% .11
Feb
11		 Connecticut A C+ B- A+ A+ 52% 11% 37% A+ A+ C+ B- B- A+ D+ B C- F+ A+ F F D 20% 24% 56% A+ C D+ F F D- A+ F+ A+
1.16 54% 40% 41% +2 +2 1.11 28% 1.0 .28 13% .31 75% .23 1.32 40% 67% 43% +11 -2 1.20 40% 1.3 .53 13% .17 78% .13
Feb
15		 Seton Hall D- D- C- F D 38% 23% 38% C- D C F F A+ C F+ D+ A- F D+ B+ D- 36% 33% 31% A+ D+ A+ C A+ A F A+ A-
0.84 45% 33% 25% -11 0 0.79 29% 0.4 .10 13% .34 65% .22 0.94 69% 40% 29% +2 -2 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 21% .42 45% .19
Feb
18		 Georgetown A+ A A+ A+ A+ 41% 27% 31% C+ A+ B- C C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F F F A F 47% 18% 35% F+ F C+ D- C- D B- D C+
1.36 67% 64% 44% +15 -1 1.31 32% 1.0 .32 9% .42 77% .32 1.31 71% 78% 28% +10 +1 1.24 32% 1.2 .39 12% .32 79% .25
Feb
21		 Xavier B+ C- C- D- D+ 56% 23% 21% B+ C- C- B+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ C+ D F B C 21% 29% 50% B+ C+ B+ B+ B+ D+ A- F B
1.18 56% 36% 30% -3 +1 0.98 25% 1.0 .25 9% .53 76% .40 1.10 67% 50% 32% +4 -2 1.05 23% 0.9 .20 10% .18 82% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.9 0.9 4th
5th 1.9 2.6 4.5 5th
6th 6.7 23.4 1.6 31.7 6th
7th 0.0 19.7 4.6 24.4 7th
8th 3.8 16.1 0.1 20.0 8th
9th 12.1 2.3 14.4 9th
10th 4.0 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
Total 20.0 44.9 30.0 5.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 5.1% 7.9% 2.0% 5.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 4.7 6.0%
8-12 30.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 29.6 0.6%
7-13 44.9% 0.3% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 44.7
6-14 20.0% 0.2% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 11.2 99.0 0.5%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.6 3.2 32.3 61.3 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 18.0% 10.8 3.0 15.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 11.5% 11.1 0.4 9.5 1.5
Lose Out 11.0%