Colgate
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#241
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#301
Pace64.7#291
Improvement+0.5#156

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#226
First Shot+2.2#107
After Offensive Rebound-4.2#354
Layup/Dunks-2.2#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#11
Freethrows-4.7#362
Improvement+2.1#51

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#252
First Shot-3.1#282
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#130
Layups/Dunks+0.6#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#313
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#319
Freethrows+2.0#57
Improvement-1.6#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 16.8% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 22.0% 26.2% 10.0%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 81.0% 58.3%
Conference Champion 20.9% 24.6% 10.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 2.4% 9.2%
First Four9.7% 9.9% 9.2%
First Round11.4% 12.7% 7.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 74.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 62 - 9
Quad 412 - 913 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 154   @ Drexel L 56-73 24%     0 - 1 -13.9 -11.3 -3.6
  Nov 12, 2024 100   @ Syracuse L 72-74 13%     0 - 2 +5.8 +1.8 +4.0
  Nov 18, 2024 79   @ North Carolina St. L 49-72 9%     0 - 3 -12.7 -20.1 +8.0
  Nov 22, 2024 243   @ Harvard L 67-78 39%     0 - 4 -12.6 -1.6 -11.5
  Nov 27, 2024 134   @ UNC Wilmington W 72-59 20%     1 - 4 +17.6 +11.4 +8.2
  Nov 29, 2024 175   Appalachian St. L 50-72 36%     1 - 5 -22.8 -11.3 -15.6
  Nov 30, 2024 140   Sam Houston St. L 78-82 29%     1 - 6 -2.9 +8.5 -11.6
  Dec 04, 2024 131   Cornell L 57-84 38%     1 - 7 -28.3 -16.5 -13.4
  Dec 08, 2024 170   @ Northeastern L 75-78 25%     1 - 8 -0.5 +4.7 -5.2
  Dec 11, 2024 16   @ Kentucky L 67-78 3%     1 - 9 +7.5 +3.8 +3.1
  Dec 15, 2024 220   Vermont W 65-60 57%     2 - 9 -1.3 +0.3 -0.9
  Dec 22, 2024 247   Iona L 73-79 63%     2 - 10 -13.8 -0.4 -13.5
  Jan 02, 2025 312   Army W 73-66 75%    
  Jan 05, 2025 266   @ Bucknell L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 08, 2025 246   Lehigh W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 257   Boston University W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 15, 2025 318   @ Navy W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 267   @ Lafayette L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 20, 2025 266   Bucknell W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 232   @ American L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 29, 2025 312   @ Army W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 267   Lafayette W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 03, 2025 246   @ Lehigh L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 322   Loyola Maryland W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 12, 2025 313   @ Holy Cross W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 257   @ Boston University L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 19, 2025 318   Navy W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 322   @ Loyola Maryland W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 313   Holy Cross W 74-67 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 232   American W 68-66 58%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.8 5.6 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 20.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.4 6.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.5 6.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 6.1 2.3 0.2 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.5 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.4 2.7 0.2 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.0 6.9 10.0 12.2 14.0 14.1 12.6 9.9 6.7 3.7 1.6 0.4 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 99.7% 1.6    1.5 0.0
15-3 95.3% 3.5    3.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 82.9% 5.6    4.2 1.3 0.1
13-5 58.5% 5.8    3.0 2.3 0.5 0.0
12-6 25.8% 3.3    0.8 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-7 4.9% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.9% 20.9 13.3 5.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 47.9% 47.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.4% 44.1% 44.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.6% 38.1% 38.1% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.0
15-3 3.7% 32.7% 32.7% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 2.5
14-4 6.7% 29.3% 29.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.2 4.7
13-5 9.9% 24.7% 24.7% 15.8 0.0 0.4 2.0 7.5
12-6 12.6% 19.7% 19.7% 16.0 0.0 2.4 10.1
11-7 14.1% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0 0.0 2.3 11.8
10-8 14.0% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 1.9 12.1
9-9 12.2% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 1.3 10.8
8-10 10.0% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.7 9.3
7-11 6.9% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.3 6.6
6-12 4.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 3.9
5-13 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 12.5 84.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 12.6 4.3 43.5 39.1 13.0