Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.4 #222
Expected Predictive Rating -3.0 #212
Pace 67.4 #219
Improvement -3.4 #318

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #180 B- D+ C+ D D+
Defense #264 C- C+ D+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #234 1.17 #160 -1.0 #214
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #78 0.90 #37 +3.9 #28
Three Pointers 38% #254 1.10 #64 -0.1 #183
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #99 +2.8 #99
Freethrows 0.26 #317 72% #201 0.18 #310
Second Chance 26.6% #292 0.97 #260 0.26 #290
Turnovers 16.0% #134
Total Offense -0.4 #180

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #106 1.20 #235 -2.6 #272
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #207 0.72 #113 +0.7 #136
Three Pointers 39% #249 1.06 #245 +0.2 #171
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #234 -1.7 #236
Freethrows 0.30 #195 72% #172 0.22 #187
Second Chance 30.4% #167 0.97 #99 0.30 #130
Turnovers 14.8% #292
Total Defense -2.9 #264

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.7% #293 0.7% #231
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.2% #67 2.6% #229
Possession Length 17.7 #223 17.3 #198
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #187 0.13 #59
Improvement -1.1 #244 -2.3 #310

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 24.1% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 90.4% 93.4% 74.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 96.7%
Conference Champion 19.1% 20.9% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.4% 3.1% 5.4%
First Round21.8% 22.8% 16.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 84.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 415 - 717 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 10 @Michigan St. L 69 - 80 2% -6  0 - 1 +12 +11 A+ C- C +1 A+ D+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 256 Northeastern L 65 - 68 69% +1  0 - 2 -11 -12 F+ F C+ +1 B+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 206 Drexel W 90 - 83 59% +7  1 - 2 +1 +18 A+ C- D- -17 F C D-
 Fri, Nov 14 7 @Illinois L 65 - 84 1% -11  1 - 3 +5 +4 B- D+ A+ +0 A+ C D
 Mon, Nov 17 174 @Siena W 72 - 69 30% +0  2 - 3 +5 +6 B D+ B- -1 C+ D D+
 Thu, Nov 20 176 @Cornell L 94 - 95 2OT 31% +0  2 - 4 +1 -7 F+ D C+ +8 B A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 316 Albany W 69 - 67 72% -2  3 - 4 -8 -2 B- F C -5 F+ A- C-
 Sun, Nov 30 169 Fordham W 72 - 62 40% +9  4 - 4 +9 +7 A+ F+ D+ +3 B- B- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 141 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 85 23% +3  4 - 5 -4 +5 D B+ A+ -9 C C C
 Sun, Dec 21 5 @Florida L 60 - 90 1% -17  4 - 6 -5 +4 A+ D+ F+ -12 D+ F D+
 Sun, Dec 28 165 Harvard L 69 - 78 50% -2  4 - 7 -12 -4 D+ D+ C- -8 F A- F+
 Wed, Dec 31 310 @Lafayette W 85 - 77 60% +1  5 - 7 1 - 0 +2 +6 B+ F B- -4 C D- C
 Sat, Jan 3 336 @Army W 76 - 69 68% +3  6 - 7 2 - 0 -1 +9 C+ D- B- -9 C- F F+
 Wed, Jan 7 244 American W 64 - 62 66% -5  7 - 7 3 - 0 -6 +0 D+ C C+ -5 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 10 301 Lehigh L 77 - 78 77% -2  7 - 8 3 - 1 -12 +6 B- D- C+ -18 F+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 14 318 @Loyola Maryland W 86 - 80 62% +3  8 - 8 4 - 1 -1 +6 C- D B -7 D+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 315 Bucknell W 95 - 76 81% +14  9 - 8 5 - 1 +7 +15 A+ A A- -9 C- C F+
 Wed, Jan 21 244 @American L 66 - 70 44% -1  9 - 9 5 - 2 -6 -4 D+ F+ C- -2 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 290 Boston University W 80 - 79 OT 75% -3  10 - 9 6 - 2 -9 -5 C B- F -5 D- A+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 323 Holy Cross W 79 - 74 82% -0  11 - 9 7 - 2 -8 +5 C- C+ A+ -12 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 301 @Lehigh L 76 - 77 OT 57% -1  11 - 10 7 - 3 -6 +1 D+ A- D- -7 F D+ A+
 Wed, Feb 4 336 Army W 81 - 70 85%
 Sat, Feb 7 315 @Bucknell W 74 - 71 62%
 Wed, Feb 11 323 @Holy Cross W 74 - 70 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 179 Navy W 71 - 70 53%
 Mon, Feb 16 290 @Boston University W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 318 Loyola Maryland W 81 - 72 81%
 Wed, Feb 25 310 Lafayette W 78 - 69 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 179 @Navy L 68 - 73 31%
Totals 16 - 13 12 - 6 -3 +0 B- D+ C+ -3 C- C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 6.4 8.6 2.6 19.1 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 12.5 22.2 17.7 4.0 58.5 2nd
3rd 0.7 5.5 7.7 3.5 0.4 17.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 1.7 0.3 3.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.8 9.1 20.7 27.0 24.5 12.6 2.6 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 2.6    2.2 0.4
14-4 68.1% 8.6    4.6 3.9 0.1
13-5 26.3% 6.4    1.8 3.9 0.7
12-6 4.8% 1.3    0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.1% 19.1 8.8 9.1 1.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.6% 38.8% 38.8% 14.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.6
14-4 12.6% 31.0% 31.0% 14.9 0.0 0.8 2.4 0.6 8.7
13-5 24.5% 27.3% 27.3% 15.3 0.0 0.4 3.6 2.7 17.8
12-6 27.0% 22.7% 22.7% 15.6 0.1 2.2 3.8 20.9
11-7 20.7% 18.6% 18.6% 15.8 0.9 2.9 16.8
10-8 9.1% 13.8% 13.8% 15.9 0.2 1.1 7.9
9-9 2.8% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 0.4 2.5
8-10 0.6% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 15.4 76.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 14.0 19.3 58.9 21.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%