Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.5 244
Results Rating -3.4 225
Pace 67.4 215
Improvement -3.6 314

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 207 C+ D+ C+ D+ D+
Defense D+ 267 C- C D C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 225 C- 56% 223 -1.6 240
2 Pt. Jumpers 43% 115 B 44% 48 +3.4 40
Three Pointers 37% 255 B- 36% 93 -0.6 205
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 287 C+ +1.9 106
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 140
Second Chance D+ 26.5% 296 C- 0.98 252 D+ 0.26 296
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 134
Freethrows D 0.27 296 C 73% 175 D+ 0.20 280
Total Offense C- -1.4 207

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 211 C+ 9.8% 115
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 183 B 2.8% 38
Three Pointers B- 88% 88 C+ 0.7% 127
Total C- 54% 224 B 4.6% 69

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 140 C- 59% 217 +1.3 220
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 192 B- 36% 94 -0.7 134
Three Pointers 40% 212 C- 35% 238 +0.2 193
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 202 C- +0.7 214
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 213
Second Chance C 30.4% 181 C+ 1.01 152 C 0.31 167
Turnovers D 14.9% 300
Freethrows C- 0.32 226 C 72% 188 C- 0.23 219
Total Defense D+ -3.1 267

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 232 D+ 8.0% 306
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 250 C 4.9% 172
Three Pointers B 80% 61 C- 0.7% 196
Total C 56% 199 D+ 4.4% 276

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 194 17.3 183
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 172 0.14 82
Improvement -2.1 #287 -1.5 #274

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 261 240 212
Results Rating Rank 254 224 194
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 13 - 5
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18% 19% 15%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 3% 6%
First Round16% 17% 12%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Lafayette (Home) - 79.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 415 - 617 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 10 @Michigan St. L 69 - 80 1% -6  3% 0 - 1 B+ +11 B +7 A+ D+ D+ B +4 A+ D+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 292 Northeastern L 65 - 68 72% +1  65% 0 - 2 D- -14 F -15 F F C+ C+ +1 B A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 221 Drexel W 90 - 83 58% +7  81% 1 - 2 C +1 A+ +15 A+ D+ D- F -14 F D+ F+
 Fri, Nov 14 5 @Illinois L 65 - 84 1% -11  1% 1 - 3 B- +7 C +1 B- D+ A+ B +4 A+ C D
 Mon, Nov 17 191 @Siena W 72 - 69 30% +0  46% 2 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +3 B D+ C+ C+ +1 B- D- D+
 Thu, Nov 20 171 @Cornell L 94 - 95 2OT 26% +0  43% 2 - 4 C +1 F+ -9 D- D C A +10 B- A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 316 Albany W 69 - 67 69% -2  29% 3 - 4 D+ -7 D -6 B- F C+ C -1 F+ A- C-
 Sun, Nov 30 155 Fordham W 72 - 62 33% +9  93% 4 - 4 B +10 B +7 A D- C+ B +5 B- B- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 142 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 85 21% +3  62% 4 - 5 C- -4 C +1 D- A- A+ D -5 C C- C
 Sun, Dec 21 4 @Florida L 60 - 90 1% -17  4% 4 - 6 C- -3 C+ +3 A+ D D- F+ -9 D+ F D+
 Sun, Dec 28 146 Harvard L 69 - 78 42% -2  30% 4 - 7 D- -11 D -5 C- D+ D+ D -6 F A- F+
 Wed, Dec 31 322 @Lafayette W 85 - 77 61% +1  61% 5 - 7 1 - 0 C +1 C+ +3 B F B C- -3 C F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 338 @Army W 76 - 69 67% +3  70% 6 - 7 2 - 0 C- -2 B +6 C+ D B+ D- -7 D+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 253 American W 64 - 62 63% -5  9% 7 - 7 3 - 0 D+ -6 D+ -3 D C- B- C- -2 F A B-
 Sat, Jan 10 307 Lehigh L 77 - 78 75% -2  26% 7 - 8 3 - 1 D- -13 C+ +3 B- D C+ F -15 F+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 315 @Loyola Maryland W 86 - 80 58% +3  83% 8 - 8 4 - 1 C -0 B- +4 C- D+ B- D+ -4 C- B F
 Sat, Jan 17 330 Bucknell W 95 - 76 82% +14  97% 9 - 8 5 - 1 C+ +5 A +12 A+ A B+ F+ -8 C- C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 253 @American L 66 - 70 41% -1  44% 9 - 9 5 - 2 D+ -6 D- -7 D F C- C+ +1 C+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 257 Boston University W 80 - 79 OT 65% -3  10% 10 - 9 6 - 2 D+ -7 D- -7 C B- F C -1 D A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 327 Holy Cross W 79 - 74 81% -0  38% 11 - 9 7 - 2 D -9 C +1 D+ C+ A F+ -9 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 307 @Lehigh L 76 - 77 OT 54% -1  30% 11 - 10 7 - 3 D+ -7 D+ -3 D+ A F+ D+ -4 F D A+
 Wed, Feb 4 338 Army W 69 - 55 84% +8  57% 12 - 10 8 - 3 C -1 F+ -9 C- D F A +9 B+ B+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 330 @Bucknell W 78 - 59 64% +14  99% 13 - 10 9 - 3 B +11 D+ -3 D D- A- A+ +13 A+ B- D
 Wed, Feb 11 327 @Holy Cross W 74 - 70 62% +5  77% 14 - 10 10 - 3 C- -4 D+ -4 F C+ B C+ +0 A- D- C+
 Sat, Feb 14 154 Navy L 80 - 84 OT 43% -5  7% 14 - 11 10 - 4 D+ -7 B- +4 A- C+ C+ F -10 F A F
 Mon, Feb 16 257 @Boston University L 58 - 85 42% -14  0% 14 - 12 10 - 5 F -29 F+ -10 F C+ B- F -26 D- F F
 Sat, Feb 21 315 Loyola Maryland W 101 - 98 OT 78% +5  86% 15 - 12 11 - 5 D -9 C- -2 C F B+ F+ -8 C- A- F
 Wed, Feb 25 322 Lafayette W 77 - 68 80%
 Sat, Feb 28 154 @Navy L 66 - 74 23%
Totals 16 - 13 12 - 6 -4 C- -1 D C+ D+ D+ -3 B- C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- B B- C+ 37% 43% 37% D+ C+ D+ C- D+ C+ D C D+ D+ C- B- C- C- 40% 20% 40% C- C- C C+ C D C- C C-
1.07 56% 44% 36% +2 -1 1.04 27% 1.0 .26 16% .27 73% .20 1.13 59% 36% 35% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.0 .31 15% .32 72% .19
Nov
3		 Michigan St. B A+ A A A+ 24% 24% 52% C- A+ F A+ D+ D+ F D- F B D- A+ A+ A+ 34% 32% 34% B+ A+ F+ C+ D+ D- F A+ F
1.00 69% 46% 39% +9 -1 1.17 10% 1.0 .10 19% .11 67% .07 1.16 69% 20% 25% -7 -2 0.85 46% 1.1 .49 14% .62 65% .41
Nov
7		 Northeastern F D A+ F F 41% 24% 35% D F D+ F F C+ D- A C- C+ D- A+ A+ A- 51% 12% 37% F+ B C- A+ A+ F F D F
0.97 55% 58% 24% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.6 .18 16% .28 81% .23 1.01 65% 17% 21% -6 +2 0.94 28% 0.4 .10 10% .42 72% .30
Nov
11		 Drexel A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 33% 28% D A+ F A+ D+ D- A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F 39% 4% 57% F F F A- D+ F+ C+ A+ B+
1.30 65% 64% 58% +21 -1 1.42 17% 1.7 .28 19% .48 89% .42 1.19 52% 50% 45% +8 +2 1.22 38% 0.7 .28 16% .26 53% .14
Nov
14		 Illinois C A+ B- F+ B+ 19% 49% 32% F B- D- B D+ A+ C- A+ B- B C+ A+ A A+ 25% 15% 60% A- A+ D B- C D F F F
0.97 73% 39% 28% 0 -5 0.93 17% 1.0 .17 7% .15 89% .13 1.26 62% 25% 28% -6 0 0.89 45% 1.2 .52 10% .40 88% .35
Nov
17		 Siena C+ B- A+ D- B- 55% 23% 21% B B F A D+ C+ B- B+ B C+ B- F+ A B- 36% 32% 32% B- B- F C- D- D+ D- F F
1.12 62% 55% 30% +4 +1 1.13 22% 1.2 .26 16% .31 76% .24 1.07 56% 50% 25% -1 -2 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 16% .33 83% .28
Nov
20		 Cornell F+ B D F D- 43% 27% 30% D D- F+ B D C F A- F A D+ A+ C B 40% 11% 49% C+ B- A+ A+ A+ B- F F+ F
1.02 66% 35% 27% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.2 .29 14% .17 77% .13 1.04 64% 29% 35% +2 +1 1.10 20% 0.3 .05 20% .41 80% .33
Nov
28		 Albany D B- C A- B 31% 21% 48% D B- F F F C+ F F F C C+ D- F F 43% 21% 36% C F+ B+ A A- C- A+ A+ A+
1.07 63% 36% 40% +5 -1 1.12 26% 0.9 .24 14% .16 33% .05 1.04 57% 45% 42% +5 0 1.13 26% 0.8 .19 19% .06 33% .02
Nov
30		 Fordham B B+ A+ B A+ 29% 22% 49% C A A F D- C+ F+ A+ C- B C+ A- A B 45% 24% 31% C- B- B+ C- B- C+ A+ F A-
1.12 64% 55% 38% +8 -1 1.16 35% 0.5 .18 16% .20 82% .17 0.96 57% 33% 25% -6 0 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 19% .13 86% .11
Dec
10		 St. Bonaventure C B- B- F D 37% 30% 33% D- D- A- B- A- A+ C+ F F+ D F C A+ C 38% 33% 29% B+ C F A- C- C F D+ F
1.10 62% 41% 26% -1 -1 0.96 37% 1.1 .41 9% .30 53% .16 1.22 75% 41% 27% +4 -2 1.08 43% 0.8 .35 17% .42 79% .33
Dec
21		 Florida C+ F C- A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% C- A+ D+ F D D- F F F F+ D- F B D+ 48% 10% 42% C- D+ F C- F D+ F A- F
0.93 29% 35% 65% +5 -2 1.08 17% 0.5 .09 20% .15 38% .06 1.39 70% 60% 30% +5 +2 1.17 56% 1.1 .61 14% .48 67% .32
Dec
28		 Harvard D B+ F D C- 48% 20% 31% C C- F A+ D+ D+ F A- F+ D C+ A F F 38% 20% 42% C+ F A+ F A- F+ A+ D+ A+
1.00 65% 18% 29% -3 +1 0.98 19% 1.3 .25 17% .18 80% .14 1.13 57% 27% 57% +12 0 1.25 13% 1.3 .17 15% .10 83% .09
Dec
31		 Lafayette C+ B+ A+ B- B+ 40% 23% 37% C B F F F B A+ C A+ C- C+ F A C 45% 16% 39% C- C A F F+ C- F C F
1.16 67% 50% 37% +8 0 1.17 23% 0.4 .09 12% .51 73% .37 1.05 55% 50% 26% -4 +1 0.96 18% 1.8 .32 16% .46 68% .31
Jan
3		 Army B D C+ A+ B- 33% 20% 47% D+ C+ C+ F D B+ F+ A+ C- D- B+ B+ D- D+ 40% 9% 51% D+ D+ F+ F F F F A+ D+
1.24 56% 40% 43% +6 0 1.14 33% 0.9 .30 11% .30 88% .26 1.13 47% 25% 38% -3 +2 1.00 35% 1.2 .41 13% .38 55% .21
Jan
7		 American D+ C- F B- D 50% 24% 26% C+ D B+ F C- B- A F C+ C- B B- F F 57% 6% 36% F F B+ A+ A B- A+ A+ A+
1.08 57% 30% 36% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 17% .47 61% .28 1.04 52% 33% 53% +6 +3 1.21 21% 0.5 .10 19% .12 50% .06
Jan
10		 Lehigh C+ F A+ A+ B- 45% 27% 29% C- B- C+ F D C+ A- B- A- F B+ A+ F F+ 45% 20% 35% F+ F+ F A+ D+ F F D- F
1.18 45% 62% 43% +4 0 1.10 36% 0.8 .27 15% .38 76% .29 1.20 50% 20% 59% +6 0 1.14 37% 0.6 .24 11% .45 77% .34
Jan
14		 Loyola Maryland B- B+ C- B C+ 29% 36% 35% F C- F A+ D+ B- B A- A D+ D- C C+ D 29% 19% 53% A- C- C+ A B F F A- D
1.19 69% 40% 37% +5 -3 1.07 21% 1.6 .33 12% .35 82% .28 1.11 65% 36% 32% 0 0 1.02 25% 0.8 .20 8% .35 65% .23
Jan
17		 Bucknell A A+ A A+ A+ 33% 19% 48% C A+ C A+ A B+ B- D- C F+ F A A+ C 41% 8% 51% F C- A+ F C+ F F F F
1.33 76% 50% 44% +16 0 1.33 34% 1.4 .48 14% .36 68% .24 1.06 67% 25% 23% -6 +2 0.94 16% 1.6 .26 15% .40 92% .36
Jan
21		 American D- B- C+ D C- 30% 36% 34% F D D- F F C- B F+ C+ C+ C- A+ C- C+ 45% 16% 39% C- C+ F F F A+ D+ F D-
0.98 64% 41% 31% +2 -3 1.00 25% 0.8 .19 19% .42 65% .28 1.04 60% 14% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.3 .48 28% .29 86% .25
Jan
24		 Boston University D- F C+ A+ C+ 41% 30% 30% D C B+ D+ B- F F F F C F+ F A+ D+ 46% 15% 40% D- D A+ A+ A+ C- F D+ F
1.10 45% 44% 56% +6 -1 1.13 36% 1.0 .36 19% .20 58% .12 1.09 68% 86% 26% +7 +1 1.19 18% 0.6 .11 18% .45 74% .33
Jan
28		 Holy Cross C F A A C- 38% 32% 30% F D+ C- B+ C+ A F+ B- D- F+ F F C F 35% 27% 38% C- F A+ F B F A+ A+ A+
1.19 48% 50% 41% +3 -2 1.05 28% 1.3 .36 9% .20 75% .15 1.12 68% 60% 33% +9 -1 1.18 7% 2.0 .14 11% .17 50% .08
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Lehigh D+ C A+ F D+ 46% 30% 24% D+ D+ C A+ A F+ B- A+ A D+ B+ D F F 38% 15% 48% F F B F D A+ B- D- C
1.07 57% 67% 8% -1 -1 0.98 34% 1.4 .48 20% .35 85% .30 1.08 50% 43% 52% +11 +1 1.25 18% 1.4 .25 25% .24 77% .19
Feb
4		 Army F+ B+ C+ C- C 35% 33% 33% F C- A F D F C+ C C+ A B B+ B B 22% 18% 60% A B+ B A- B+ B F B F+
1.07 69% 40% 33% +4 -2 1.07 41% 0.8 .31 22% .38 74% .28 0.86 50% 25% 30% -8 -1 0.84 25% 0.8 .19 20% .35 67% .23
Feb
7		 Bucknell D+ C- A F+ D 36% 26% 38% D+ D F+ D+ D- A- C F D+ A+ C+ C- A+ A+ 31% 22% 47% B+ A+ A- F B- D F C+ F
1.06 58% 50% 30% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.0 .26 14% .33 67% .22 0.80 53% 36% 13% -17 -1 0.67 19% 1.3 .24 18% .45 74% .33
Feb
11		 Holy Cross D+ F+ C- F F 39% 28% 33% D- F F+ A+ C+ B C+ A+ B C+ D- B- A+ A- 22% 33% 45% A- A- F A+ D- C+ F F F
1.08 52% 40% 28% -5 -1 0.91 21% 1.7 .36 12% .28 82% .23 1.02 64% 38% 23% -7 -3 0.84 39% 0.7 .26 18% .48 85% .41
Feb
14		 Navy B- F D A+ A- 37% 20% 43% B A- D- A+ C+ C+ A+ F A+ F F+ D+ F F 38% 23% 38% C F A A- A F F B+ F
1.12 47% 33% 50% +5 0 1.13 24% 1.4 .32 17% .44 65% .29 1.17 65% 42% 40% +7 0 1.15 24% 0.9 .21 14% .47 69% .32
Feb
16		 Boston University F+ F D- A- F 34% 30% 36% F+ F C B C+ B- F A+ D F B+ A+ F F+ 33% 14% 53% C D- F F F F A+ A A+
1.01 19% 36% 41% -10 -1 0.79 31% 1.2 .36 10% .20 90% .18 1.48 50% 14% 54% +10 0 1.22 39% 1.8 .71 12% .16 63% .10
Feb
21		 Loyola Maryland C- D+ A+ F+ D+ 48% 10% 42% A C F F F B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A- A D- C 46% 6% 49% F C- B+ A A- F D+ F D
1.16 59% 83% 28% +1 +2 1.08 14% 1.0 .14 11% .45 89% .40 1.12 48% 25% 37% -3 +2 1.01 22% 0.8 .18 9% .29 78% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 15.7 65.3 18.9 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 15.7 65.3 18.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 18.9% 21.2% 21.2% 15.0 0.0 0.7 2.7 0.6 14.9
12-6 65.3% 17.8% 17.8% 15.6 0.2 3.8 7.6 53.7
11-7 15.7% 14.0% 14.0% 15.9 0.3 1.9 13.5
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 15.5 82.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.0% 100.0% 15.0 0.5 17.6 67.6 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.4%
Lose Out 5.4%