Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.5 #205
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #180
Pace 66.7 #246
Improvement -2.1 #290

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #180 B F C+ F D+
Defense #236 C C+ D B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #224 1.21 #117 +0.0 #178
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #100 0.89 #32 +3.2 #46
Three Pointers 39% #231 1.11 #65 +0.6 #156
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #81 +3.9 #81
Freethrows 13.7 #332 71% #223 9.8 #326
Second Chance 24.7% #323 0.94 #299 0.23 #340
Turnovers 15.9% #133
Total Offense -0.4 #180

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #133 1.19 #225 -1.8 #245
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #194 0.69 #99 +0.8 #143
Three Pointers 40% #220 1.04 #220 +0.1 #178
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #205 -0.9 #213
Freethrows 16.1 #126 71% #127 11.5 #252
Second Chance 31.4% #211 0.93 #56 0.29 #120
Turnovers 14.4% #306
Total Defense -2.1 #236

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #268 0.4% #204
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.0% #53 1.3% #207
Possession Length 18.0 #255 17.3 #200
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #206 0.14 #87
Improvement -0.5 #222 -1.5 #272

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.1% 28.1% 22.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 92.3% 94.7% 80.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 99.2% 94.8%
Conference Champion 46.8% 50.5% 28.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.2% 2.9% 4.5%
First Round25.5% 26.7% 19.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 417 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 14 @Michigan St. L 69 - 80 2%  -6  0 - 1 +10 +11 A+ D+ D+ -1 A+ D F
 Fri, Nov 7 233 Northeastern L 65 - 68 67%  +1  0 - 2 -10 -11 F F B- +1 B+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 248 Drexel W 90 - 83 70%  +7  1 - 2 -1 +15 A+ D- F -16 F C D-
 Fri, Nov 14 9 @Illinois L 65 - 84 2%  -11  1 - 3 +4 +5 A- D A+ -2 A+ C- F
 Mon, Nov 17 190 @Siena W 72 - 69 37%  +0  2 - 3 +4 +7 B C- B+ -3 C D- D
 Thu, Nov 20 168 @Cornell L 94 - 95 2OT 33%  +0  2 - 4 +1 -6 F D B +7 A- A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 322 Albany W 69 - 67 76%  -2  3 - 4 -8 -4 B- F C -4 F A+ C
 Sun, Nov 30 203 Fordham W 72 - 62 50%  +9  4 - 4 +8 +6 A+ F D +2 B- B C+
 Wed, Dec 10 119 @St. Bonaventure L 77 - 85 22%  +3  4 - 5 -2 +6 C- B- A+ -8 C- B C+
 Sun, Dec 21 12 @Florida L 60 - 90 2%  -17  4 - 6 -9 +4 A+ D F -15 D- F D-
 Sun, Dec 28 196 Harvard L 69 - 78 61%  -2  4 - 7 -14 -5 D- D C- -10 F A F
 Wed, Dec 31 318 @Lafayette W 85 - 77 65%  +1  5 - 7 1 - 0 +2 +5 B+ F C -4 C- D C
 Sat, Jan 3 330 @Army W 76 - 69 69%  +3  6 - 7 2 - 0 -1 +10 B+ F C -10 D+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 241 American W 64 - 62 68%  -5  7 - 7 3 - 0 -5 -1 D C- C+ -4 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 320 Lehigh W 76 - 66 83% 
 Wed, Jan 14 336 @Loyola Maryland W 78 - 72 70% 
 Sat, Jan 17 314 Bucknell W 75 - 65 82% 
 Wed, Jan 21 241 @American L 72 - 73 46% 
 Sat, Jan 24 258 Boston University W 75 - 69 71% 
 Wed, Jan 28 326 Holy Cross W 75 - 64 84% 
 Sat, Jan 31 320 @Lehigh W 73 - 69 65% 
 Wed, Feb 4 330 Army W 78 - 67 85% 
 Sat, Feb 7 314 @Bucknell W 72 - 68 63% 
 Wed, Feb 11 326 @Holy Cross W 72 - 67 67% 
 Sat, Feb 14 193 Navy W 73 - 70 59% 
 Mon, Feb 16 258 @Boston University W 73 - 72 50% 
 Sat, Feb 21 336 Loyola Maryland W 81 - 69 86% 
 Wed, Feb 25 318 Lafayette W 78 - 68 82% 
 Sat, Feb 28 193 @Navy L 70 - 73 38% 
Totals 17 - 12 13 - 5 -2 +0 B F C+ -2 C C+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 5.5 11.5 13.0 9.9 4.3 0.9 46.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.7 7.4 10.3 6.5 2.2 0.3 29.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 4.8 4.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 5.4 9.7 14.3 17.7 18.3 15.2 10.2 4.3 0.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 4.3    4.3 0.1
16-2 97.2% 9.9    9.1 0.8 0.0
15-3 85.6% 13.0    10.3 2.7 0.1
14-4 63.0% 11.5    6.8 4.2 0.5 0.0
13-5 31.1% 5.5    2.1 2.5 0.8 0.1
12-6 11.2% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 46.8% 46.8 33.7 11.0 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 46.8% 46.8% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5
17-1 4.3% 42.4% 42.4% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.5
16-2 10.2% 40.6% 40.6% 14.5 0.2 1.8 2.0 0.2 6.0
15-3 15.2% 35.6% 35.6% 15.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 0.9 9.8
14-4 18.3% 29.7% 29.7% 15.3 0.0 0.4 2.9 2.1 12.8
13-5 17.7% 25.1% 25.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.7 13.2
12-6 14.3% 20.3% 20.3% 15.7 0.0 0.8 2.1 11.4
11-7 9.7% 14.8% 14.8% 15.9 0.2 1.2 8.3
10-8 5.4% 13.7% 13.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7 4.7
9-9 2.5% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.2 2.3
8-10 1.1% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.1 1.0
7-11 0.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 15.1 72.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.8 32.1 60.5 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%