Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#97
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#107
Pace67.7#216
Improvement+2.5#57

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#138
First Shot+3.0#90
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#294
Layup/Dunks+2.8#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#145
Freethrows-0.5#218
Improvement+2.3#42

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#81
First Shot+1.6#119
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#39
Layups/Dunks+1.2#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#248
Freethrows+0.1#184
Improvement+0.2#169
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 6.1% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 11.5
.500 or above 75.8% 86.0% 66.1%
.500 or above in Conference 74.1% 84.8% 63.8%
Conference Champion 5.1% 8.3% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round4.6% 5.9% 3.3%
Second Round1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 48.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 5
Quad 24 - 55 - 11
Quad 34 - 310 - 14
Quad 48 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 275   North Dakota W 82-56 90%     1 - 0 +16.7 -3.0 +18.2
  Nov 08, 2024 317   Tennessee St. W 87-79 OT 93%     2 - 0 -3.9 -3.9 -1.2
  Nov 12, 2024 319   Denver W 74-65 93%     3 - 0 -2.9 -4.9 +2.2
  Nov 16, 2024 28   Mississippi L 69-84 21%     3 - 1 -1.5 +9.7 -13.0
  Nov 22, 2024 177   UC Riverside L 75-77 OT 80%     3 - 2 -5.9 -6.5 +0.8
  Nov 28, 2024 95   Washington L 67-73 49%     3 - 3 -0.6 -1.4 +0.7
  Nov 29, 2024 66   TCU W 76-72 OT 39%     4 - 3 +12.0 +1.7 +9.8
  Dec 04, 2024 157   Loyola Marymount W 83-54 78%     5 - 3 +26.0 +11.4 +15.2
  Dec 07, 2024 76   @ Colorado L 55-72 30%     5 - 4 -6.5 -12.0 +5.7
  Dec 14, 2024 57   Virginia Commonwealth L 68-76 34%     5 - 5 +1.4 +6.2 -5.3
  Dec 17, 2024 214   Radford W 78-68 84%     6 - 5 +4.3 +10.8 -5.2
  Dec 21, 2024 60   @ Nevada W 66-64 24%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +14.3 +5.2 +9.2
  Dec 28, 2024 64   New Mexico L 77-78 49%    
  Dec 31, 2024 162   @ San Jose St. W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 07, 2025 273   Fresno St. W 80-66 91%    
  Jan 11, 2025 106   UNLV W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 14, 2025 38   @ San Diego St. L 62-72 18%    
  Jan 18, 2025 159   @ Wyoming W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 22, 2025 58   Boise St. L 70-71 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 273   @ Fresno St. W 77-69 77%    
  Jan 28, 2025 269   Air Force W 72-58 90%    
  Feb 05, 2025 64   @ New Mexico L 74-80 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 38   San Diego St. L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 11, 2025 47   @ Utah St. L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 159   Wyoming W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 18, 2025 60   Nevada L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 22, 2025 106   @ UNLV L 67-69 41%    
  Feb 25, 2025 269   @ Air Force W 69-61 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 47   Utah St. L 71-74 40%    
  Mar 04, 2025 162   San Jose St. W 74-66 77%    
  Mar 07, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 67-74 26%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.7 4.0 0.9 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.0 5.1 1.1 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.7 5.9 1.3 0.1 17.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.6 7.2 5.6 1.3 0.0 18.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 14.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.4 7.6 10.7 13.8 15.2 14.8 12.1 8.7 5.2 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 98.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 86.6% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 63.9% 1.8    0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 27.8% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.4 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 65.8% 31.6% 34.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
18-2 0.3% 50.3% 22.3% 28.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 36.1%
17-3 1.1% 33.0% 19.5% 13.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8 16.8%
16-4 2.8% 18.9% 15.0% 3.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.3 4.6%
15-5 5.2% 12.1% 11.1% 1.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.6 1.2%
14-6 8.7% 8.2% 7.9% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 8.0 0.4%
13-7 12.1% 6.2% 6.1% 0.0% 11.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 11.4 0.1%
12-8 14.8% 4.0% 3.9% 0.0% 11.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 14.2 0.0%
11-9 15.2% 2.9% 2.9% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 14.8
10-10 13.8% 2.0% 2.0% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.5
9-11 10.7% 1.1% 1.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.6
8-12 7.6% 1.0% 1.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5
7-13 4.4% 0.5% 0.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 4.4
6-14 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.1
5-15 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.7% 4.3% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.3 0.5%