Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#53
Expected Predictive Rating+10.3#55
Pace65.6#248
Improvement+8.9#3

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#45
First Shot+6.9#32
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#222
Layup/Dunks+5.6#23
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#122
Freethrows-0.5#210
Improvement+8.1#1

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#70
First Shot+1.7#119
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#15
Layups/Dunks+0.5#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#239
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement+0.7#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.2% 42.2% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.0% 21.6% 10.7%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 11.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.2% 13.5% 9.8%
First Round24.5% 34.8% 5.4%
Second Round7.7% 10.8% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 2.6% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 5
Quad 27 - 29 - 8
Quad 35 - 214 - 10
Quad 410 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 264   North Dakota W 82-56 95%     1 - 0 +17.6 -3.4 +19.5
  Nov 08, 2024 260   Tennessee St. W 87-79 OT 95%     2 - 0 -0.2 -1.8 +0.4
  Nov 12, 2024 301   Denver W 74-65 97%     3 - 0 -1.8 -1.6 +0.0
  Nov 16, 2024 29   Mississippi L 69-84 37%     3 - 1 -0.7 +10.7 -13.1
  Nov 22, 2024 143   UC Riverside L 75-77 OT 88%     3 - 2 -3.7 -7.2 +3.7
  Nov 28, 2024 105   Washington L 67-73 74%     3 - 3 -2.1 -3.6 +1.5
  Nov 29, 2024 76   TCU W 76-72 OT 63%     4 - 3 +11.5 +1.1 +9.9
  Dec 04, 2024 156   Loyola Marymount W 83-54 89%     5 - 3 +26.5 +12.4 +14.7
  Dec 07, 2024 80   @ Colorado L 55-72 54%     5 - 4 -7.1 -11.5 +4.6
  Dec 14, 2024 36   Virginia Commonwealth L 68-76 39%     5 - 5 +5.6 +6.0 -0.9
  Dec 17, 2024 170   Radford W 78-68 90%     6 - 5 +6.7 +10.5 -2.7
  Dec 21, 2024 82   @ Nevada W 66-64 55%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +11.5 +3.9 +7.8
  Dec 28, 2024 41   New Mexico L 68-76 53%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +1.9 +3.5 -1.7
  Dec 31, 2024 152   @ San Jose St. W 72-50 77%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +25.2 -0.9 +25.9
  Jan 07, 2025 258   Fresno St. W 91-64 95%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +19.0 +12.6 +5.5
  Jan 11, 2025 93   UNLV W 84-62 78%     10 - 6 4 - 1 +24.7 +21.8 +4.8
  Jan 14, 2025 54   @ San Diego St. L 60-75 39%     10 - 7 4 - 2 -1.4 -0.5 -1.6
  Jan 18, 2025 174   @ Wyoming W 79-63 80%     11 - 7 5 - 2 +17.7 +16.2 +3.1
  Jan 22, 2025 52   Boise St. W 75-72 60%     12 - 7 6 - 2 +11.2 +14.2 -2.7
  Jan 25, 2025 258   @ Fresno St. W 69-64 89%     13 - 7 7 - 2 +2.5 +5.0 -2.0
  Jan 28, 2025 296   Air Force W 79-58 97%     14 - 7 8 - 2 +10.5 +8.1 +4.0
  Feb 05, 2025 41   @ New Mexico L 65-87 33%     14 - 8 8 - 3 -6.6 +5.8 -13.8
  Feb 08, 2025 54   San Diego St. W 68-63 61%     15 - 8 9 - 3 +13.1 +13.4 +0.5
  Feb 11, 2025 55   @ Utah St. L 85-93 40%     15 - 9 9 - 4 +5.5 +16.8 -11.5
  Feb 15, 2025 174   Wyoming W 88-53 91%     16 - 9 10 - 4 +31.2 +24.7 +10.4
  Feb 18, 2025 82   Nevada W 79-71 74%     17 - 9 11 - 4 +12.0 +13.2 -0.6
  Feb 22, 2025 93   @ UNLV W 61-53 60%     18 - 9 12 - 4 +16.2 +0.5 +16.5
  Feb 25, 2025 296   @ Air Force W 77-55 92%     19 - 9 13 - 4 +17.0 +6.6 +11.5
  Mar 01, 2025 55   Utah St. W 93-66 61%     20 - 9 14 - 4 +35.0 +29.7 +8.2
  Mar 04, 2025 152   San Jose St. W 83-56 88%     21 - 9 15 - 4 +24.7 +11.6 +14.2
  Mar 07, 2025 52   @ Boise St. W 83-73 39%     22 - 9 16 - 4 +23.7 +24.3 +0.3
  Mar 13, 2025 82   Nevada W 71-67 65%    
Projected Record 23 - 9 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 31.2% 17.1% 14.1% 10.6 0.3 2.7 8.1 18.0 2.2 68.8 17.0%
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.2% 17.1% 14.1% 10.6 0.3 2.7 8.1 18.0 2.2 68.8 17.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.1% 100.0% 10.3 1.6 15.2 39.2 41.9 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 19.8% 29.1% 10.9 0.2 4.3 21.8 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 28.1% 16.3% 11.1 0.0 0.9 12.5 2.8
Lose Out 34.9% 10.7% 11.1 0.0 0.7 8.6 1.4