Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.6 #103
Expected Predictive Rating +4.0 #101
Pace 58.9 #365
Improvement -5.8 #353

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #66 A- B- D+ C+ C+
Defense #184 C C C- B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #266 1.29 #53 +0.6 #152
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #282 0.72 #244 -2.1 #284
Three Pointers 49% #32 1.24 #5 +9.4 #4
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #17 +7.9 #16
Freethrows 0.30 #177 77% #43 0.23 #125
Second Chance 32.9% #118 1.09 #97 0.36 #87
Turnovers 18.6% #302
Total Offense +5.2 #66

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #336 1.22 #272 +3.1 #78
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #125 0.81 #277 -1.1 #270
Three Pointers 47% #40 0.98 #119 -1.9 #273
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #180 +0.1 #177
Freethrows 0.28 #98 69% #27 0.19 #68
Second Chance 27.7% #74 1.17 #340 0.32 #213
Turnovers 15.6% #244
Total Defense -0.6 #184

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #139 -1.4% #66
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.6% #14 1.3% #209
Possession Length 19.2 #342 18.4 #328
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #178 0.13 #55
Improvement -7.5 #364 +1.8 #83

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.3% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.6
.500 or above 81.8% 85.3% 56.8%
.500 or above in Conference 21.6% 23.9% 5.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.2% 1.3% 0.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Home) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 65 - 11
Quad 34 - 28 - 13
Quad 49 - 117 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 248 Incarnate Word W 98 - 64 88% +18  1 - 0 +26 +26 A+ A+ B- +2 B A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 241 Nebraska Omaha W 97 - 74 87% +8  2 - 0 +15 +27 A+ A+ D -10 D+ C+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 263 Cal Poly W 93 - 79 89% +9  3 - 0 +5 +8 B+ D+ C+ -4 D+ A- D-
 Sun, Nov 16 279 @Loyola Chicago W 80 - 67 79% +12  4 - 0 +9 +17 B+ A+ D -6 F B B+
 Fri, Nov 21 288 Denver L 81 - 83 91% -2  4 - 1 -12 +11 B- A+ F -24 F+ C F
 Wed, Nov 26 60 Virginia Tech L 64 - 66 33% -3  4 - 2 +7 +4 C- B+ B- +3 C- A+ D+
 Thu, Nov 27 99 Wichita St. W 76 - 70 49% +10  5 - 2 +11 +20 A+ D- C- -8 A+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 28 70 South Florida W 83 - 68 37% +8  6 - 2 +23 +15 A+ C D- +8 A+ A- D
 Sat, Dec 6 72 Colorado W 91 - 86 48% +4  7 - 2 +10 +22 A+ D+ C -12 F B- F+
 Tue, Dec 9 229 Dartmouth W 76 - 55 86% +9  8 - 2 +14 +8 A+ F F +8 B B A-
 Sat, Dec 20 38 @Utah St. L 58 - 100 14% -24  8 - 3 0 - 1 -25 -2 D C D+ -28 F F C
 Tue, Dec 30 71 Nevada L 62 - 75 48% -4  8 - 4 0 - 2 -8 -3 D B+ B- -6 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 65 @Grand Canyon W 70 - 60 25% +10  9 - 4 1 - 2 +22 +15 A C D- +8 A+ C- C
 Tue, Jan 6 45 New Mexico L 70 - 80 35% -7  9 - 5 1 - 3 -1 +7 B A+ D+ -9 D F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 128 UNLV W 70 - 62 71% +0  10 - 5 2 - 3 +7 +2 C- A+ F +5 A D+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 146 @Fresno St. L 69 - 79 53% -7  10 - 6 2 - 4 -6 +9 A- D- B -17 C F+ F
 Fri, Jan 16 62 @Boise St. L 73 - 79 24% -6  10 - 7 2 - 5 +6 +15 A+ F F -10 D+ F B-
 Tue, Jan 20 350 Air Force W 81 - 52 96% +17  11 - 7 3 - 5 +14 +10 A- D A+ +6 A A+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 38 Utah St. L 61 - 65 29% +4  11 - 8 3 - 6 +7 +0 A+ A+ F +6 B- A+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 43 @San Diego St. L 50 - 73 17% -10  11 - 9 3 - 7 -8 -5 F+ B F -6 D D B
 Sat, Jan 31 111 @Wyoming L 57 - 68 42% -8  11 - 10 3 - 8 -4 -2 D D+ C+ -5 F A+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 242 San Jose St. W 76 - 64 88%
 Tue, Feb 10 350 @Air Force W 73 - 59 90%
 Sat, Feb 14 111 Wyoming W 72 - 68 65%
 Wed, Feb 18 128 @UNLV L 74 - 75 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 43 San Diego St. L 67 - 71 35%
 Tue, Feb 24 146 Fresno St. W 73 - 66 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 242 @San Jose St. W 73 - 67 72%
 Wed, Mar 4 45 @New Mexico L 68 - 78 17%
 Sat, Mar 7 62 Boise St. L 69 - 70 46%
Totals 16 - 14 8 - 12 +5 +5 A- B- D+ -1 C C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 7.7 4.1 0.3 14.8 6th
7th 0.1 4.1 13.7 7.1 0.5 25.6 7th
8th 0.0 2.5 12.5 8.1 0.7 0.0 23.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 9.1 8.1 0.9 0.0 19.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 6.2 5.2 1.1 0.0 14.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.0 7.8 16.9 26.0 25.3 15.5 5.3 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.7% 7.2% 5.8% 1.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.5%
11-9 5.3% 2.6% 2.3% 0.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2 0.3%
10-10 15.5% 2.1% 2.1% 11.5 0.2 0.2 15.2
9-11 25.3% 1.2% 1.2% 11.8 0.1 0.2 25.0
8-12 26.0% 0.9% 0.9% 12.2 0.2 0.1 25.7
7-13 16.9% 0.7% 0.7% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 16.8
6-14 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 7.7
5-15 2.0% 2.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 11.8 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 4.9% 12.0 4.9