Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.1 91
Results Rating +6.8 85
Pace 59.7 362
Improvement -2.4 275

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 52 A- B- D+ B C+
Defense C 181 C C D+ B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 271 B 65% 48 +0.6 154
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 318 C- 36% 232 -2.3 290
Three Pointers 49% 27 A 41% 7 +9.2 6
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 116 A- +6.8 17
1st FG Attempt A- 1.17 19
Second Chance C+ 32.5% 119 B- 1.10 78 B- 0.36 83
Turnovers D+ 18.1% 269
Freethrows B- 0.33 108 B+ 77% 25 B 0.25 59
Total Offense B +6.4 52

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 81 B+ 7.9% 35
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 133 D 7.2% 308
Three Pointers B 89% 58 C 1.0% 203
Total A- 66% 23 B 4.4% 50

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 323 C- 59% 214 -2.9 86
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 141 C- 39% 237 +0.6 239
Three Pointers 46% 47 C+ 33% 133 +1.8 274
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 85 C +0.0 179
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 162
Second Chance B- 27.4% 70 D- 1.14 325 C 0.31 189
Turnovers D+ 15.5% 259
Freethrows C+ 0.29 127 B+ 69% 26 B- 0.20 85
Total Defense C -0.4 181

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 81 D+ 8.0% 302
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 36 D+ 3.1% 291
Three Pointers A 75% 12 D+ 0.4% 291
Total B 49% 57 D- 3.5% 331

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.0 334 18.2 311
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 154 0.13 60
Improvement -4.2 #346 +1.8 #88

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 105 91 73
Results Rating Rank 102 86 68
Conference Record 9 - 11 10 - 10 12 - 8
Conference Finish 8 6 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 11.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 78% 89% 46%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 74.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 5
Quad 25 - 56 - 10
Quad 34 - 110 - 12
Quad 49 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 269 Incarnate Word W 98 - 64 92% +18  99% 1 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +22 A+ A+ C B+ +6 B A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 239 Nebraska Omaha W 97 - 74 89% +8  89% 2 - 0 A- +16 A+ +23 A A+ D D -6 D+ C+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 231 Cal Poly W 93 - 79 88% +9  95% 3 - 0 B- +7 B +7 A- C- B- C -1 D+ A D-
 Sun, Nov 16 282 @Loyola Chicago W 80 - 67 82% +12  89% 4 - 0 B +9 A+ +16 B+ A+ D D+ -5 F B- B
 Fri, Nov 21 228 Denver L 81 - 83 88% -2  25% 4 - 1 D -9 A- +10 B A+ F F -19 F+ C F
 Wed, Nov 26 57 Virginia Tech L 64 - 66 36% -3  22% 4 - 2 B- +8 C +1 D+ A- C B+ +6 C A+ D+
 Thu, Nov 27 97 Wichita St. W 76 - 70 52% +10  98% 5 - 2 B+ +12 A+ +20 A+ D- C D- -7 A+ F D+
 Fri, Nov 28 58 South Florida W 83 - 68 37% +8  83% 6 - 2 A+ +24 A +13 A+ C D- A+ +12 A+ A- D
 Sat, Dec 6 66 Colorado W 91 - 86 52% +4  75% 7 - 2 B +11 A+ +20 A+ D C F -10 F B- F
 Tue, Dec 9 250 Dartmouth W 76 - 55 90% +9  89% 8 - 2 B+ +13 B +6 A+ F F A +10 B B A-
 Sat, Dec 20 28 @Utah St. L 58 - 100 14% -24  0% 8 - 3 0 - 1 F -24 D -4 D C D F -24 F F C+
 Tue, Dec 30 78 Nevada L 62 - 75 56% -4  13% 8 - 4 0 - 2 D -8 D -6 D- B+ B- D+ -4 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 62 @Grand Canyon W 70 - 60 29% +10  95% 9 - 4 1 - 2 A +22 A +12 A- C D- A +11 A+ C C-
 Tue, Jan 6 47 New Mexico L 70 - 80 42% -7  2% 9 - 5 1 - 3 C- -2 C+ +3 B A+ D D -6 D F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 118 UNLV W 70 - 62 72% +0  35% 10 - 5 2 - 3 B- +8 C- -1 C- A+ F A +10 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 132 @Fresno St. L 69 - 79 54% -7  3% 10 - 6 2 - 4 D+ -5 B +6 B+ F+ B- F -12 C+ D- F
 Fri, Jan 16 64 @Boise St. L 73 - 79 30% -6  1% 10 - 7 2 - 5 B- +6 A +11 A+ F F D- -6 C- F B
 Tue, Jan 20 351 Air Force W 81 - 52 97% +17  97% 11 - 7 3 - 5 B+ +12 B +6 B+ D A+ A +9 A A+ C
 Fri, Jan 23 28 Utah St. L 61 - 65 29% +4  76% 11 - 8 3 - 6 B- +8 C- -2 A+ A+ F A +10 B A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 45 @San Diego St. L 50 - 73 22% -10  10% 11 - 9 3 - 7 D -9 D- -7 F+ B- F D+ -5 D- D B
 Sat, Jan 31 100 @Wyoming L 57 - 68 42% -8  0% 11 - 10 3 - 8 C- -3 D -5 D D+ B- C -0 F+ A C+
 Sat, Feb 7 218 San Jose St. W 65 - 57 87% +3  81% 12 - 10 4 - 8 C +2 F -11 F C+ B+ A+ +13 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 351 @Air Force W 91 - 74 93% +8  73% 13 - 10 5 - 8 B- +6 A+ +19 A+ F B+ F -12 F A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 14 100 Wyoming W 79 - 68 65% 14 - 10 6 - 8 B+ +13
 Wed, Feb 18 118 @UNLV W 91 - 86 50% +6  89% 15 - 10 7 - 8 B +11 A+ +23 A+ B- A+ F -11 D- D- F+
 Sat, Feb 21 45 San Diego St. W 83 - 74 41% +6  69% 16 - 10 8 - 8 A- +17 A+ +18 A A+ B C -0 A+ C C+
 Tue, Feb 24 132 Fresno St. W 75 - 68 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 218 @San Jose St. W 74 - 68 72%
 Wed, Mar 4 47 @New Mexico L 71 - 79 22%
 Sat, Mar 7 64 Boise St. W 72 - 71 52%
Totals 18 - 12 10 - 10 +6 B +6 A- A- C+ C +0 A B+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B C- A A- 36% 25% 49% C+ A- C+ B- B- D+ B- B+ B C C- C- C+ C 33% 22% 46% B- C B- D- C D+ C+ B+ B-
1.18 65% 36% 41% +7 0 1.17 32% 1.1 .36 18% .33 77% .25 1.09 59% 39% 33% 0 -1 1.01 27% 1.1 .31 16% .29 69% .23
Nov
3		 Incarnate Word A+ A+ A A+ A+ 32% 18% 50% D A+ B A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ B+ C- F+ A+ B 26% 28% 46% B+ B A+ A+ A+ F F A+ C-
1.49 79% 50% 50% +21 0 1.43 38% 1.8 .67 15% .54 90% .49 0.98 57% 47% 24% -5 -2 0.89 17% 0.6 .10 8% .35 57% .20
Nov
9		 Nebraska Omaha A+ A- A+ A- A 38% 4% 58% A- A A+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ D D+ C+ D+ D+ 24% 15% 61% C D+ B+ D C+ F B- C- B-
1.48 71% 100% 38% +11 +2 1.29 52% 1.4 .70 17% .61 85% .51 1.13 62% 38% 36% +3 0 1.07 22% 1.1 .24 11% .26 73% .19
Nov
12		 Cal Poly B B- F A+ A- 33% 5% 61% B A- F A+ C- B- B- A+ A+ C B F F+ D 31% 13% 56% B+ D+ A+ B A D- B- A+ A
1.24 63% 0% 43% +8 +2 1.21 19% 1.7 .31 15% .31 95% .30 1.05 53% 43% 39% +3 0 1.09 22% 0.9 .20 17% .29 61% .18
Nov
16		 Loyola Chicago A+ F+ A+ A+ A- 29% 16% 56% C+ B+ A A- A+ D A A- A+ D+ C- F F+ F 32% 8% 61% C F B- C+ B- B F C F
1.33 46% 57% 44% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.3 .50 15% .37 84% .31 1.11 58% 67% 39% +7 +1 1.18 29% 0.9 .25 22% .47 68% .32
Nov
21		 Denver A- D- F A+ B- 48% 6% 45% A- B A+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ F D F F F 20% 40% 40% A+ F+ C C C F D C- D
1.35 53% 0% 50% +6 +3 1.19 48% 1.3 .60 18% .90 80% .71 1.38 60% 50% 45% +12 -4 1.18 30% 1.1 .33 7% .34 79% .27
Nov
26		 Virginia Tech C B D F D+ 49% 24% 27% B- D+ B- A+ A- C F B D- B+ D D- C+ C 39% 15% 46% D C A+ A+ A+ D+ C+ F C-
1.03 63% 33% 15% -6 0 0.90 32% 1.3 .41 18% .16 75% .12 1.06 67% 43% 33% +4 +1 1.11 17% 0.8 .14 13% .30 81% .24
Nov
27		 Wichita St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% A- A+ B F D- C D- F F D- C F A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% D+ A+ F F F D+ B- A B
1.30 71% 100% 46% +22 0 1.48 32% 0.6 .18 17% .23 55% .12 1.19 56% 50% 11% -13 +1 0.77 54% 1.4 .76 14% .30 60% .18
Nov
28		 South Florida A C+ B A+ A+ 41% 15% 43% A- A+ F A+ C D- F F F A+ A- A+ A A+ 40% 12% 47% B+ A+ A D+ A- D A+ B- A+
1.21 58% 43% 70% +24 +1 1.52 14% 2.0 .29 22% .22 58% .13 0.99 48% 0% 26% -15 +1 0.75 30% 1.2 .37 13% .23 71% .17
Dec
6		 Colorado A+ A+ D A+ A+ 20% 17% 63% C A+ D D+ D C C B+ B- F F F D- F 56% 11% 33% F F A+ F B- F A+ A+ A+
1.36 73% 33% 50% +17 -1 1.35 22% 1.0 .22 16% .30 76% .23 1.28 77% 50% 39% +14 +2 1.35 20% 1.4 .28 9% .21 54% .11
Dec
9		 Dartmouth B A+ B+ A A+ 53% 18% 29% B- A+ F F F F F A+ F A D- A+ B+ B 30% 13% 57% C- B C- A+ B A- A+ A+ A+
1.20 81% 44% 40% +16 +1 1.37 19% 0.8 .14 19% .06 100% .06 0.87 64% 17% 31% -4 0 0.96 25% 0.9 .22 24% .17 50% .08
Dec
20		 Utah St. D F C+ D D- 32% 20% 49% C+ D D+ B+ C D A A- A+ F D F F F 50% 10% 40% D+ F F C F C+ F A+ D
0.91 38% 38% 30% -9 0 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 24% .39 79% .31 1.57 67% 60% 58% +21 +2 1.48 59% 1.2 .70 16% .45 58% .26
Dec
30		 Nevada D A+ F F D 30% 23% 48% D+ D- B+ B- B+ B- A+ F A+ D+ F A+ A+ A+ 18% 39% 43% A+ A+ B+ F F C- F B- F
0.97 77% 10% 24% -8 -1 0.84 33% 1.3 .42 16% .54 62% .33 1.18 75% 18% 26% -10 -4 0.75 29% 2.4 .71 13% .56 74% .41
Jan
3		 Grand Canyon A B+ F B A- 36% 11% 52% A A- A+ F C D- A+ D- A+ A A- D+ A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% B A+ A- F C C- A A+ A+
1.12 63% 20% 35% 0 +1 1.05 41% 0.7 .28 21% .50 68% .34 0.96 50% 40% 22% -11 0 0.80 28% 1.3 .36 16% .25 62% .15
Jan
6		 New Mexico C+ C B- C C+ 42% 14% 44% A B B+ A+ A+ D F+ A+ D+ D D C+ F D- 37% 17% 46% B+ D C F F C+ F+ A+ C
1.07 57% 43% 32% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.3 .42 21% .21 82% .17 1.22 65% 38% 43% +8 0 1.20 31% 1.8 .55 15% .38 62% .23
Jan
9		 UNLV C- F D A D+ 36% 17% 47% C+ C- A+ A A+ F A+ D+ A+ A A+ F+ A- A+ 42% 19% 40% C- A+ D+ C- D+ A+ F A+ F+
1.09 38% 33% 41% -3 0 0.97 41% 1.3 .55 23% .61 70% .43 0.97 44% 50% 29% -6 +1 0.91 35% 0.9 .32 25% .52 60% .31
Jan
13		 Fresno St. B A A+ C- A- 31% 16% 53% C B+ C+ F F+ B- D+ B- C- F C A- D C 37% 22% 41% B- C+ C F D- F F F F
1.10 73% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.6 .18 18% .23 75% .17 1.26 59% 30% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.2 .37 11% .43 96% .41
Jan
16		 Boise St. A A- F A+ A+ 27% 20% 52% C+ A+ B F F F B- A+ A+ D- A- F D+ D+ 27% 11% 61% B C- D+ F F B F C F
1.17 67% 0% 61% +16 -1 1.32 26% 0.3 .09 24% .30 93% .28 1.27 50% 80% 37% +5 0 1.14 35% 1.4 .48 18% .53 78% .41
Jan
20		 Air Force B A D+ B B 40% 17% 44% B B+ F+ B- D A+ A D- B A F C A+ A+ 29% 13% 58% C+ A A- A+ A+ C B+ F C+
1.24 74% 38% 38% +9 +1 1.21 23% 1.1 .26 9% .39 65% .25 0.80 79% 33% 14% -12 0 0.79 17% 0.7 .11 21% .23 75% .18
Jan
23		 Utah St. C- A+ C A+ A+ 16% 37% 47% F A+ C A+ A+ F F+ D+ F+ A D- F A+ C+ 32% 30% 38% A+ B A+ D- A+ C+ A+ F A+
0.98 83% 36% 44% +11 -4 1.16 30% 1.7 .52 34% .24 70% .17 1.05 69% 53% 26% +4 -2 1.06 21% 1.3 .28 16% .10 80% .08
Jan
28		 San Diego St. D- A+ D+ F D- 8% 25% 68% F F+ B C B- F C+ C- C D+ F B- F F 30% 41% 30% A+ D- F B D B D C+ D+
0.82 100% 30% 22% -11 -3 0.75 32% 0.9 .29 28% .32 71% .23 1.20 85% 33% 46% +11 -3 1.18 41% 1.0 .41 20% .35 76% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Wyoming D C- C+ F F+ 53% 10% 37% B+ D B+ F D+ B- F C+ F C A B- F F 24% 14% 62% A- F+ A+ B+ A C+ F C+ F
0.97 56% 40% 21% -8 +2 0.90 32% 0.6 .19 15% .20 70% .14 1.16 44% 40% 48% +10 0 1.22 27% 0.9 .23 17% .49 75% .37
Feb
7		 San Jose St. F D+ F F F 40% 10% 50% B- F C- A- C+ B+ A- C A- A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 33% 35% 32% B- A+ A+ F A+ F A+ F B+
0.99 58% 20% 17% -15 +1 0.75 32% 1.3 .43 15% .36 75% .27 0.87 42% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.68 8% 2.7 .21 6% .18 91% .16
Feb
10		 Air Force A+ A+ A A+ A+ 20% 20% 61% D+ A+ F F F B+ A+ A+ A+ F F B F F 40% 16% 44% C F B- A+ A+ D+ F A+ C
1.39 75% 50% 56% +26 -1 1.51 14% 0.0 .00 12% .63 81% .51 1.13 71% 29% 58% +19 +1 1.42 21% 0.5 .10 20% .42 45% .19
Feb
14		 Wyoming
Feb
18		 UNLV A+ A+ B+ A- A+ 45% 18% 37% B- A+ B- C B- A+ A B- A F C- F F D- 44% 13% 42% D- D- D+ D- D- F+ D D D-
1.39 82% 44% 39% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.1 .37 11% .46 74% .34 1.32 61% 57% 41% +8 +1 1.21 35% 1.0 .35 12% .40 74% .30
Feb
21		 San Diego St. A+ C F A- A 27% 2% 71% A A B- A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ C A+ B- C A+ 36% 27% 38% C- A+ F+ A C C+ F F+ F
1.23 55% 0% 38% +2 +2 1.10 31% 1.7 .52 19% .53 83% .44 1.09 38% 33% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.9 .36 18% .43 83% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 4.7 3.6 8.4 5th
6th 0.4 14.3 25.3 1.8 41.7 6th
7th 5.9 19.8 2.1 27.7 7th
8th 1.0 11.1 5.1 0.1 17.2 8th
9th 1.5 1.3 2.8 9th
10th 0.5 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 3.1 18.6 39.1 32.3 6.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 6.9% 6.3% 4.7% 1.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 6.5 1.7%
11-9 32.3% 3.1% 3.0% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.8 0.2 31.3 0.1%
10-10 39.1% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 11.5 0.3 0.3 38.5 0.0%
9-11 18.6% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 18.4
8-12 3.1% 0.7% 0.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 3.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.3% 2.2% 0.2% 11.3 97.7 0.2%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.8 1.0 23.5 71.4 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 8.2% 11.2 7.0 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9% 2.5% 10.9 0.2 2.3
Lose Out 1.5%