Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.3 #272
Expected Predictive Rating -4.6 #237
Pace 67.1 #230
Improvement -0.4 #205

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #222 D C B- D- C-
Defense #301 D+ C D+ C+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #188 0.99 #346 -3.5 #299
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #131 0.77 #156 +1.1 #114
Three Pointers 39% #219 0.97 #249 -1.9 #248
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #310 -4.2 #309
Freethrows 0.24 #342 70% #258 0.17 #340
Second Chance 33.6% #93 0.92 #310 0.31 #188
Turnovers 15.4% #107
Total Offense -2.0 #222

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #5 1.19 #224 -6.2 #352
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #332 0.77 #206 +2.0 #43
Three Pointers 37% #292 1.09 #292 +0.6 #152
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #292 -3.5 #292
Freethrows 0.28 #120 74% #290 0.21 #150
Second Chance 31.0% #194 1.01 #162 0.31 #179
Turnovers 14.9% #286
Total Defense -4.3 #301

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #230 2.7% #359
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.1% #316 4.2% #262
Possession Length 17.3 #183 17.3 #199
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #257 0.17 #167
Improvement +0.3 #160 -0.7 #227

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.3% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 76.3% 91.2% 66.7%
.500 or above in Conference 36.3% 56.7% 23.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 1.0%
First Round2.2% 3.1% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 39.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 52 - 7
Quad 415 - 717 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 112 @Penn St. L 68 - 76 12% +2  0 - 1 -2 -4 F F A+ +2 B- A- F+
 Sat, Nov 8 324 @NJIT W 74 - 53 53% +6  1 - 1 +14 -5 F B- F +18 A- A+ B
 Mon, Nov 10 53 @Seton Hall L 59 - 82 5% -10  1 - 2 -10 -2 C D- C- -9 B+ D F
 Fri, Nov 14 328 Stonehill W 73 - 71 OT 75% +2  2 - 2 -11 -8 F D- A- -4 C- A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 318 Loyola Maryland W 85 - 82 73% +4  3 - 2 -10 +3 F+ B+ A -13 F A+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 296 @Le Moyne W 97 - 83 44% +12  4 - 2 +9 +21 A+ B A -12 C F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 183 Columbia L 77 - 106 43% -18  4 - 3 -34 -0 D C+ D+ -33 F F F
 Sun, Nov 30 320 New Hampshire W 72 - 68 74% +0  5 - 3 -9 +1 C+ C D+ -9 C- B+ F
 Fri, Dec 5 327 @Manhattan L 66 - 70 54% -4  5 - 4 0 - 1 -11 -15 F F F +4 C B+ A-
 Sun, Dec 7 201 @Merrimack L 63 - 74 26% -10  5 - 5 0 - 2 -11 -2 C F C- -9 F A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 14 207 Monmouth W 73 - 65 49% +0  6 - 5 +2 +7 B- B A- -4 C- B+ D+
 Thu, Dec 18 300 @Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 70 45% +14  7 - 5 +9 +13 A- C+ C- -3 A- F F+
 Mon, Dec 29 235 St. Peter's L 66 - 70 53% +1  7 - 6 0 - 3 -11 -6 F B- B- -6 C A D
 Fri, Jan 2 345 @Canisius L 81 - 85 59% -4  7 - 7 0 - 4 -13 +10 D- B- B+ -22 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 349 @Niagara W 83 - 75 61% +5  8 - 7 1 - 4 -1 +20 B- B- A+ -19 F C D-
 Fri, Jan 9 352 Rider W 68 - 62 81% +8  9 - 7 2 - 4 -10 -5 F A+ B+ -4 F A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 327 Manhattan W 98 - 62 75% +20  10 - 7 3 - 4 +23 +13 A+ D+ B- +8 A+ B- B-
 Sat, Jan 17 161 @Marist L 67 - 82 20% -13  10 - 8 3 - 5 -12 +5 F B+ A- -18 F F C+
 Mon, Jan 19 174 @Siena L 77 - 85 22% -8  10 - 9 3 - 6 -6 +11 C A+ B -18 F B- B
 Thu, Jan 22 349 Niagara W 62 - 61 80% +3  11 - 9 4 - 6 -14 -13 F C- F+ -1 D+ A C
 Sat, Jan 24 345 Canisius W 61 - 55 79% +7  12 - 9 5 - 6 -9 -9 D D+ F +1 B D+ B
 Fri, Jan 30 231 @Iona W 71 - 70 31% -2  13 - 9 6 - 6 -0 +8 A- D- D+ -8 C- F C
 Sun, Feb 1 186 Quinnipiac L 65 - 72 45% +2  13 - 10 6 - 7 -12 -8 F C- A+ -4 D+ D B-
 Thu, Feb 5 276 @Sacred Heart L 77 - 80 39%
 Sat, Feb 7 161 Marist L 66 - 69 39%
 Sun, Feb 15 235 @St. Peter's L 68 - 73 32%
 Fri, Feb 20 276 Sacred Heart W 80 - 77 61%
 Sun, Feb 22 186 @Quinnipiac L 73 - 80 25%
 Fri, Feb 27 174 Siena L 71 - 73 42%
 Sun, Mar 1 289 Mount St. Mary's W 74 - 70 65%
Totals 16 - 14 9 - 11 -6 -2 D C B- -4 D+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.2 1.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 1.3 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.7 6.0 5.7 0.4 12.8 6th
7th 0.3 6.9 11.8 1.9 0.0 20.9 7th
8th 0.2 5.2 14.3 3.7 0.0 23.5 8th
9th 0.4 4.9 13.8 5.8 0.1 25.0 9th
10th 1.5 5.0 3.6 0.3 10.4 10th
11th 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.4 10.5 22.8 27.9 21.9 10.8 3.2 0.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.5% 17.0% 17.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 3.2% 11.1% 11.1% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.8
11-9 10.8% 5.1% 5.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 10.2
10-10 21.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 21.3
9-11 27.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 27.5
8-12 22.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 22.4
7-13 10.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 10.3
6-14 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.7 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 1.6%