Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.2#326
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#304
Pace65.5#256
Improvement-1.7#264

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#257
First Shot-3.5#280
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#164
Layup/Dunks-4.5#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#31
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#167
Freethrows-2.7#330
Improvement-0.9#237

Defense
Total Defense-7.0#349
First Shot-6.1#343
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#269
Layups/Dunks-6.2#359
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#197
Freethrows-1.2#270
Improvement-0.8#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.3% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 6.7% 13.7% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 2.2% 10.1%
First Four0.6% 1.2% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 33.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 410 - 1211 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 58-96 9%     0 - 1 -33.2 -16.0 -14.3
  Nov 09, 2024 85   @ Georgetown L 57-69 4%     0 - 2 -2.5 -7.3 +4.6
  Nov 12, 2024 357   @ New Hampshire W 62-56 55%     1 - 2 -5.3 -10.2 +5.2
  Nov 19, 2024 195   Drexel L 61-67 28%     1 - 3 -10.1 -6.2 -4.4
  Nov 23, 2024 69   Yale L 66-91 6%     1 - 4 -17.2 +6.2 -27.2
  Nov 24, 2024 240   Vermont W 67-66 30%     2 - 4 -3.6 +3.3 -6.8
  Dec 01, 2024 322   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-74 59%     3 - 4 -8.4 +0.1 -8.5
  Dec 04, 2024 303   Rider W 78-75 51%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -7.5 +4.5 -11.8
  Dec 08, 2024 260   @ Mount St. Mary's L 94-101 25%     4 - 5 1 - 1 -10.1 +19.8 -29.8
  Dec 18, 2024 209   Central Connecticut St. L 63-64 31%     4 - 6 -6.0 -2.6 -3.4
  Dec 21, 2024 253   @ Monmouth L 74-88 24%     4 - 7 -16.8 +0.0 -16.9
  Dec 28, 2024 237   @ Columbia L 72-85 22%     4 - 8 -15.0 +0.7 -16.8
  Jan 03, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 54-67 15%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -12.2 -6.7 -7.5
  Jan 10, 2025 256   Iona W 68-64 42%     5 - 9 2 - 2 -4.0 -4.7 +0.8
  Jan 12, 2025 211   @ Marist L 51-61 17%     5 - 10 2 - 3 -10.2 -9.1 -2.9
  Jan 16, 2025 316   Niagara W 70-66 56%     6 - 10 3 - 3 -7.6 -1.6 -5.6
  Jan 18, 2025 352   Canisius L 67-78 70%     6 - 11 3 - 4 -26.5 -9.6 -17.9
  Jan 23, 2025 271   @ Manhattan W 87-84 OT 27%     7 - 11 4 - 4 -0.7 +6.3 -7.1
  Jan 25, 2025 198   Merrimack L 54-75 28%     7 - 12 4 - 5 -25.2 -13.0 -13.9
  Jan 31, 2025 187   @ Quinnipiac L 69-81 15%     7 - 13 4 - 6 -10.8 -3.6 -6.7
  Feb 02, 2025 256   @ Iona L 64-87 25%     7 - 14 4 - 7 -26.0 -3.7 -23.6
  Feb 06, 2025 211   Marist L 63-68 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 288   Sacred Heart L 76-77 50%    
  Feb 14, 2025 272   @ St. Peter's L 61-67 26%    
  Feb 16, 2025 271   Manhattan L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 21, 2025 303   @ Rider L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 28, 2025 260   Mount St. Mary's L 71-73 44%    
  Mar 02, 2025 288   @ Sacred Heart L 73-79 28%    
  Mar 06, 2025 246   @ Siena L 66-74 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 187   Quinnipiac L 71-77 29%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 2.1 0.2 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.5 1.2 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.5 5.7 4.5 0.1 10.8 8th
9th 0.2 4.9 8.7 1.1 0.0 14.9 9th
10th 0.2 4.3 11.5 3.5 0.0 19.5 10th
11th 0.2 3.3 11.2 7.3 0.4 22.4 11th
12th 2.1 7.2 5.9 0.8 0.0 16.0 12th
13th 0.9 1.0 0.2 2.1 13th
Total 3.2 11.8 21.8 24.9 19.4 12.3 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.2% 17.4% 17.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 1.4% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
10-10 5.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 5.0
9-11 12.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.2
8-12 19.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 19.3
7-13 24.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 24.7
6-14 21.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 21.8
5-15 11.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.8
4-16 3.2% 3.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.1%