Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#297
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#279
Pace67.4#226
Improvement+0.6#149

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#215
First Shot-1.7#224
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#169
Layup/Dunks-3.8#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#27
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#146
Freethrows-2.3#308
Improvement+3.2#16

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#342
First Shot-4.9#334
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#267
Layups/Dunks-5.4#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#119
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#162
Freethrows-1.1#262
Improvement-2.6#339
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 5.0% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 16.6% 32.0% 13.1%
.500 or above in Conference 40.5% 50.2% 38.4%
Conference Champion 2.5% 4.1% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 4.7% 8.0%
First Four2.0% 2.3% 1.9%
First Round2.4% 3.7% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Away) - 18.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 411 - 1013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 93   @ Rhode Island L 58-96 8%     0 - 1 -29.5 -15.1 -11.5
  Nov 09, 2024 68   @ Georgetown L 57-69 5%     0 - 2 -1.0 -8.5 +7.2
  Nov 12, 2024 355   @ New Hampshire W 62-56 60%     1 - 2 -3.9 -9.6 +6.1
  Nov 19, 2024 154   Drexel L 61-67 33%     1 - 3 -8.9 -6.5 -2.9
  Nov 23, 2024 99   Yale L 66-91 13%     1 - 4 -20.0 +4.4 -28.3
  Nov 24, 2024 220   Vermont W 67-66 35%     2 - 4 -2.3 +3.3 -5.5
  Dec 01, 2024 333   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-74 71%     3 - 4 -9.2 -2.6 -6.6
  Dec 04, 2024 303   Rider W 78-75 63%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -7.8 +4.2 -11.9
  Dec 08, 2024 234   @ Mount St. Mary's L 94-101 27%     4 - 5 1 - 1 -8.0 +20.6 -28.5
  Dec 18, 2024 219   Central Connecticut St. L 63-64 45%     4 - 6 -7.1 -4.0 -3.2
  Dec 21, 2024 262   @ Monmouth L 74-88 31%     4 - 7 -16.4 -0.1 -16.3
  Dec 28, 2024 179   @ Columbia L 72-81 18%    
  Jan 03, 2025 194   @ Merrimack L 64-73 21%    
  Jan 10, 2025 247   Iona W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 12, 2025 231   @ Marist L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 16, 2025 320   Niagara W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 353   Canisius W 78-70 78%    
  Jan 23, 2025 279   @ Manhattan L 75-79 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 194   Merrimack L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 31, 2025 249   @ Quinnipiac L 74-80 30%    
  Feb 02, 2025 247   @ Iona L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 06, 2025 231   Marist L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 295   Sacred Heart W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 14, 2025 206   @ St. Peter's L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 16, 2025 279   Manhattan W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 21, 2025 303   @ Rider L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 28, 2025 234   Mount St. Mary's L 73-74 49%    
  Mar 02, 2025 295   @ Sacred Heart L 74-77 39%    
  Mar 06, 2025 304   @ Siena L 68-70 41%    
  Mar 08, 2025 249   Quinnipiac W 77-76 51%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 3.1 0.9 0.1 6.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.0 4.7 0.7 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.3 2.9 5.7 1.6 0.1 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.5 3.0 0.2 11.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.0 4.0 0.6 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 3.8 0.9 0.0 10.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.1 2.9 0.9 0.0 8.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 5.6 9.2 12.0 13.8 14.3 13.0 10.6 7.4 4.8 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 97.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 89.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 59.0% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 30.1% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 6.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 22.9% 22.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.5% 19.0% 19.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.3% 15.2% 15.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
14-6 2.7% 14.3% 14.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3
13-7 4.8% 11.3% 11.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 4.3
12-8 7.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.9 0.0 0.6 6.8
11-9 10.6% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.0
10-10 13.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 12.6
9-11 14.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 14.0
8-12 13.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.6
7-13 12.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.9
6-14 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.1
5-15 5.6% 5.6
4-16 3.0% 3.0
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.9 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%