Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.8 #282
Expected Predictive Rating -4.9 #244
Pace 67.9 #221
Improvement -1.7 #278

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #204 D- C B- D C-
Defense #329 D C F C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #199 0.97 #343 -4.0 #311
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #125 0.73 #218 +0.7 #143
Three Pointers 39% #218 0.97 #233 -1.8 #246
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #317 -5.1 #317
Freethrows 14.0 #328 76% #86 10.6 #289
Second Chance 33.7% #98 0.93 #308 0.31 #195
Turnovers 15.1% #90
Total Offense -1.4 #204

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #5 1.18 #210 -6.7 #353
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #347 0.70 #107 +2.8 #13
Three Pointers 37% #275 1.10 #291 +0.3 #172
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #293 -3.6 #294
Freethrows 16.8 #164 75% #301 12.7 #164
Second Chance 30.2% #155 1.04 #193 0.31 #169
Turnovers 13.6% #333
Total Defense -5.4 #329

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #242 3.3% #363
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.2% #318 3.5% #245
Possession Length 17.6 #205 17.3 #196
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #269 0.19 #236
Improvement +2.7 #35 -4.4 #356

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.6% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 54.6% 63.1% 36.0%
.500 or above in Conference 26.1% 32.3% 12.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 1.8% 7.2%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round1.7% 2.1% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 68.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 414 - 716 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 105 @Penn St. L 68 - 76 10%  +2  0 - 1 -1 -1 F F A+ +1 B- A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 351 @NJIT W 74 - 53 62%  +6  1 - 1 +11 -6 F C+ F +15 A- A+ C+
 Mon, Nov 10 53 @Seton Hall L 59 - 82 4%  -10  1 - 2 -10 -2 C D- C- -8 A D- F
 Fri, Nov 14 340 Stonehill W 73 - 71 OT 77%  +2  2 - 2 -13 -11 F D A+ -2 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 336 Loyola Maryland W 85 - 82 76%  +4  3 - 2 -11 +1 F B A+ -13 F A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 22 291 @Le Moyne W 97 - 83 40%  +12  4 - 2 +10 +20 A B- A+ -10 C+ F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 139 Columbia L 77 - 106 31%  -18  4 - 3 -31 +2 C- B- D+ -32 F F F
 Sun, Nov 30 344 New Hampshire W 72 - 68 78%  +0  5 - 3 -11 +0 C+ C- D+ -10 D+ A- F
 Fri, Dec 5 311 @Manhattan L 66 - 70 47%  -4  5 - 4 0 - 1 -10 -14 F F F +4 B- B A
 Sun, Dec 7 237 @Merrimack L 63 - 74 30%  -10  5 - 5 0 - 2 -12 -3 C F D -10 F A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 194 Monmouth W 73 - 65 44%  +0  6 - 5 +3 +6 C A- B+ -3 C- A- C
 Thu, Dec 18 269 @Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 70 37%  +14  7 - 5 +11 +13 A C+ C -2 A+ F F
 Mon, Dec 29 259 St. Peter's L 66 - 70 57%  +1  7 - 6 0 - 3 -13 -5 F B- B+ -7 D A+ D
 Fri, Jan 2 331 @Canisius L 81 - 85 53%  -4  7 - 7 0 - 4 -12 +10 D B B- -22 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 354 @Niagara W 83 - 75 64%  +5  8 - 7 1 - 4 -2 +18 C+ C+ A+ -20 F C D
 Fri, Jan 9 348 Rider W 68 - 62 79%  +8  9 - 7 2 - 4 -9 -2 F A+ A -7 F A+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 311 Manhattan W 81 - 76 69% 
 Sat, Jan 17 140 @Marist L 63 - 74 15% 
 Mon, Jan 19 190 @Siena L 68 - 76 24% 
 Thu, Jan 22 354 Niagara W 75 - 65 81% 
 Sat, Jan 24 331 Canisius W 74 - 67 75% 
 Fri, Jan 30 214 @Iona L 74 - 81 26% 
 Sun, Feb 1 158 Quinnipiac L 76 - 80 37% 
 Thu, Feb 5 285 @Sacred Heart L 77 - 80 40% 
 Sat, Feb 7 140 Marist L 66 - 71 32% 
 Sun, Feb 15 259 @St. Peter's L 68 - 72 35% 
 Fri, Feb 20 285 Sacred Heart W 80 - 77 62% 
 Sun, Feb 22 158 @Quinnipiac L 73 - 83 19% 
 Fri, Feb 27 190 Siena L 71 - 73 44% 
 Sun, Mar 1 292 Mount St. Mary's W 76 - 72 63% 
Totals 15 - 15 8 - 12 -7 -1 D- C B- -5 D C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 2.8 1.2 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.5 2.9 0.3 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.7 5.4 0.9 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.3 7.4 2.1 0.1 15.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 4.5 8.5 3.0 0.2 16.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.4 7.8 3.8 0.4 15.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.8 6.0 3.6 0.5 0.0 13.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.4 0.2 5.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.4 5.7 11.5 16.9 19.2 17.8 13.2 7.5 3.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 23.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 20.8% 20.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 1.3% 11.4% 11.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-8 3.7% 7.9% 7.9% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.4
11-9 7.5% 5.0% 5.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.1
10-10 13.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.8 0.1 0.3 12.8
9-11 17.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.4 17.3
8-12 19.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 18.9
7-13 16.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 16.7
6-14 11.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.4
5-15 5.7% 5.7
4-16 2.4% 2.4
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.7 97.8 0.0%