Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#88
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#114
Pace77.2#21
Improvement-1.1#255

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#44
First Shot+6.1#40
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#206
Layup/Dunks+3.1#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#88
Freethrows+0.9#117
Improvement-0.4#201

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#150
First Shot-0.2#179
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#108
Layups/Dunks+5.4#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#345
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement-0.7#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 19.2% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.7 11.5 11.9
.500 or above 88.0% 94.6% 83.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.0% 95.7% 85.8%
Conference Champion 16.7% 29.3% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round14.9% 19.0% 11.9%
Second Round3.7% 4.9% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Home) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 44 - 7
Quad 39 - 412 - 12
Quad 47 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 150   Indiana St. W 97-64 72%     1 - 0 +33.3 +6.5 +21.7
  Nov 12, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 94-100 35%     1 - 1 +4.2 +15.5 -10.5
  Nov 15, 2024 117   @ College of Charleston L 116-119 2OT 52%     1 - 2 +2.9 +18.0 -14.4
  Nov 16, 2024 73   Liberty W 77-74 OT 45%     2 - 2 +10.6 +6.0 +4.5
  Nov 21, 2024 96   Oklahoma St. W 86-78 54%     3 - 2 +13.3 +1.6 +10.4
  Nov 22, 2024 80   Drake L 63-75 46%     3 - 3 -4.7 -1.7 -3.8
  Nov 24, 2024 115   Seton Hall L 61-63 63%     3 - 4 +0.9 -1.4 +2.1
  Nov 30, 2024 188   Florida Gulf Coast L 78-80 84%     3 - 5 -6.5 +9.6 -16.2
  Dec 04, 2024 262   @ Florida International W 88-77 79%     4 - 5 +8.6 +12.8 -4.6
  Dec 10, 2024 211   Jacksonville W 85-63 86%     5 - 5 +16.5 +5.8 +9.0
  Dec 14, 2024 126   Texas St. W 89-80 75%     6 - 5 +8.1 +15.0 -6.9
  Dec 21, 2024 14   @ Michigan St. L 69-86 13%     6 - 6 +1.7 +2.4 +0.2
  Jan 02, 2025 44   Memphis L 83-85 43%    
  Jan 05, 2025 182   @ East Carolina W 78-74 66%    
  Jan 08, 2025 193   @ Charlotte W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 12, 2025 127   UAB W 89-82 75%    
  Jan 15, 2025 202   @ Tulane W 82-77 68%    
  Jan 19, 2025 186   Rice W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 26, 2025 85   @ North Texas L 68-71 37%    
  Jan 29, 2025 226   Texas San Antonio W 91-78 88%    
  Feb 02, 2025 169   South Florida W 85-75 82%    
  Feb 08, 2025 239   @ Tulsa W 84-76 76%    
  Feb 10, 2025 193   Charlotte W 83-72 84%    
  Feb 16, 2025 124   @ Temple W 80-79 54%    
  Feb 20, 2025 101   Wichita St. W 84-79 66%    
  Feb 23, 2025 44   @ Memphis L 80-88 24%    
  Feb 27, 2025 85   North Texas W 71-68 59%    
  Mar 02, 2025 169   @ South Florida W 82-78 64%    
  Mar 06, 2025 127   @ UAB W 86-85 55%    
  Mar 09, 2025 182   East Carolina W 81-71 83%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.4 5.2 3.6 1.3 0.2 16.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.2 7.8 6.3 2.2 0.3 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.8 7.9 4.8 1.1 0.1 19.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.2 0.3 6.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 5.1 8.4 11.6 14.6 16.0 14.8 11.8 7.5 3.8 1.3 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 93.3% 3.6    2.9 0.6 0.0
15-3 70.0% 5.2    3.3 1.8 0.2
14-4 37.6% 4.4    1.7 2.0 0.7 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.9% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.7% 16.7 9.7 5.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 71.9% 45.8% 26.0% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 48.1%
17-1 1.3% 45.4% 37.4% 8.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.7 12.7%
16-2 3.8% 35.2% 33.0% 2.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 2.5 3.4%
15-3 7.5% 27.8% 27.2% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.7 0.0 5.4 0.8%
14-4 11.8% 24.0% 23.9% 0.0% 11.6 0.0 1.1 1.7 0.1 9.0 0.0%
13-5 14.8% 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 11.8 0.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.0 0.0%
12-6 16.0% 14.3% 14.3% 12.0 0.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.7
11-7 14.6% 10.5% 10.5% 12.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 13.1
10-8 11.6% 7.0% 7.0% 12.4 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 10.8
9-9 8.4% 4.8% 4.8% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.0
8-10 5.1% 3.4% 3.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.9
7-11 2.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8
6-12 1.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 15.1% 14.8% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 4.7 8.0 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 84.9 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.8 9.1 15.9 18.2 25.0 20.5 4.5 4.5 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 60.0% 10.4 12.0 16.0 28.0 4.0