Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.5 #106
Expected Predictive Rating +3.9 #114
Pace 72.1 #94
Improvement +0.9 #129

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #109 B B D+ C B-
Defense #107 C B+ C D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #167 1.16 #171 +0.2 #168
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #256 1.04 #5 +0.9 #132
Three Pointers 45% #121 1.04 #145 +2.4 #105
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #89 +3.5 #88
Freethrows 17.2 #203 73% #175 12.5 #188
Second Chance 33.7% #99 1.12 #93 0.38 #71
Turnovers 18.0% #263
Total Offense +2.4 #109

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #51 1.06 #70 -0.9 #213
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #256 0.66 #68 +1.8 #64
Three Pointers 39% #251 1.10 #292 -0.4 #197
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #156 +0.5 #155
Freethrows 18.6 #250 74% #231 13.7 #102
Second Chance 26.9% #61 0.94 #60 0.25 #39
Turnovers 17.2% #148
Total Defense +2.0 #107

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #121 1.5% #299
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.8% #90 -2.4% #138
Possession Length 15.7 #49 17.9 #280
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #72 0.16 #146
Improvement -3.0 #342 +3.9 #12

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 13.3% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.1 12.5
.500 or above 86.9% 94.0% 80.1%
.500 or above in Conference 85.6% 93.3% 78.0%
Conference Champion 14.1% 22.6% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round10.9% 13.3% 8.6%
Second Round1.5% 2.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Home) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 53 - 8
Quad 39 - 511 - 12
Quad 47 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 151 Boston College W 83 - 78 OT 76%  +2  1 - 0 +2 +1 A F C- +0 C F B-
 Sat, Nov 8 149 College of Charleston W 94 - 77 65%  +15  2 - 0 +17 +25 B A+ A- -7 C A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 9 99 @Liberty L 68 - 88 36%  -15  2 - 1 -12 -1 F A+ D -12 F B C
 Thu, Nov 20 144 Pacific W 82 - 59 73%  +11  3 - 1 +21 +14 A+ F F +9 B+ A+ A
 Mon, Nov 24 122 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 65 58%  +7  4 - 1 +13 +13 A+ B- F +1 A- A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 92 George Mason L 65 - 74 44%  -11  4 - 2 -3 +6 B D C -11 F B F
 Sun, Nov 30 119 St. Bonaventure L 65 - 70 68%  -2  4 - 3 -5 -5 F C+ F -1 F A+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 189 @Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 76 63%  -0  5 - 3 +6 +7 F C D+ -1 C+ B- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 322 Albany W 105 - 79 94%  +20  6 - 3 +13 +10 A+ F D -0 D- A+ C-
 Fri, Dec 19 41 @St. Mary's L 75 - 88 15%  -10  6 - 4 +2 +3 C- A- F +0 B A B
 Tue, Dec 23 50 Central Florida L 80 - 85 27%  +1  6 - 5 +6 +4 C A+ B+ +2 C+ A C+
 Wed, Dec 31 315 Texas San Antonio W 110 - 70 93%  +27  7 - 5 1 - 0 +28 +20 A+ A- F +3 B B C+
 Sun, Jan 4 176 @Tulane L 66 - 69 60%  +1  7 - 6 1 - 1 -1 -6 F B- F +5 B D B
 Wed, Jan 7 113 @UAB W 76 - 71 41%  +7  8 - 6 2 - 1 +12 +2 F A- C +9 A+ B- A
 Sun, Jan 11 78 Memphis L 74 - 75 49% 
 Thu, Jan 15 104 Wichita St. W 75 - 72 61% 
 Sun, Jan 18 143 @Temple W 77 - 76 51% 
 Wed, Jan 21 176 Tulane W 79 - 70 79% 
 Sun, Jan 25 89 @South Florida L 79 - 84 32% 
 Thu, Jan 29 78 @Memphis L 72 - 78 28% 
 Sun, Feb 1 266 East Carolina W 81 - 67 89% 
 Wed, Feb 4 81 Tulsa W 79 - 78 51% 
 Wed, Feb 11 245 @Rice W 76 - 70 72% 
 Sun, Feb 15 89 South Florida W 82 - 81 53% 
 Wed, Feb 18 315 @Texas San Antonio W 81 - 70 84% 
 Sun, Feb 22 133 @North Texas L 66 - 67 49% 
 Wed, Feb 25 143 Temple W 80 - 74 73% 
 Sun, Mar 1 166 Charlotte W 77 - 69 77% 
 Sat, Mar 7 104 @Wichita St. L 72 - 75 39% 
Totals 17 - 12 11 - 7 +4 +2 B B D+ +2 C B+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.2 4.9 2.9 0.9 0.1 14.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 6.0 6.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.7 7.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 7.6 2.3 0.1 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 6.1 3.7 0.2 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.7 4.9 0.6 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.8 1.6 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.3 2.2 0.1 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.9 7.9 12.0 15.6 17.6 16.8 12.3 7.1 3.1 0.9 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 99.5% 0.9    0.9 0.1
15-3 93.0% 2.9    2.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 68.8% 4.9    2.6 1.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 34.2% 4.2    1.1 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.0% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 7.2 4.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 28.0% 20.0% 8.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.0%
16-2 0.9% 25.1% 24.6% 0.5% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.7%
15-3 3.1% 23.4% 23.4% 11.6 0.3 0.4 0.0 2.4
14-4 7.1% 22.0% 21.9% 0.1% 11.9 0.3 1.1 0.1 5.5 0.1%
13-5 12.3% 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 12.1 0.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 10.2 0.0%
12-6 16.8% 15.5% 15.5% 12.3 0.1 1.8 0.7 0.0 14.2
11-7 17.6% 10.8% 10.8% 12.5 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.1 15.7
10-8 15.6% 6.3% 6.3% 12.6 0.4 0.5 0.1 14.7
9-9 12.0% 3.7% 3.7% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.6
8-10 7.9% 2.4% 2.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.7
7-11 3.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.8
6-12 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 12.3 89.1 0.0%