Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.0 116
Results Rating +2.1 131
Pace 73.3 60
Improvement -3.9 324

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 156 C+ B- C- C C+
Defense B- 99 C+ B- C C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 160 C 58% 171 +0.4 164
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 204 A 48% 13 +1.4 103
Three Pointers 41% 165 D+ 32% 275 -1.1 221
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 173 C +0.5 151
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 146
Second Chance C+ 32.7% 107 B- 1.10 80 B- 0.36 78
Turnovers C- 17.7% 242
Freethrows C 0.30 194 C- 71% 225 C 0.22 198
Total Offense C +0.3 156

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 226 A- 7.0% 21
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 283 B+ 2.3% 23
Three Pointers C- 82% 241 B 0.5% 72
Total D+ 51% 288 A- 3.3% 10

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 29 B 53% 61 +1.4 221
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 255 B 35% 73 -1.5 65
Three Pointers 37% 289 C 34% 212 -1.7 112
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 308 B- -2.5 76
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.98 120
Second Chance B 26.8% 61 C+ 1.00 133 B- 0.27 68
Turnovers C 16.7% 191
Freethrows C 0.30 181 C+ 72% 130 C 0.22 171
Total Defense B- +2.7 99

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 37% 11 A- 17.7% 24
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 33 C 5.0% 167
Three Pointers C 83% 155 B 1.6% 64
Total B+ 48% 31 A 9.4% 12

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 47 17.4 206
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 76 0.17 171
Improvement -6.9 #363 +3.0 #47

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 142 120 101
Results Rating Rank 160 129 102
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 11 - 7
Conference Finish 10 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 80% 96% 68%
.500 or above in Conference 77% 95% 63%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 5% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 44.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 52 - 9
Quad 38 - 410 - 12
Quad 46 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 139 Boston College W 83 - 78 OT 68% +2  70% 1 - 0 C+ +3 C- -1 B D C B- +3 B F B
 Sat, Nov 8 149 College of Charleston W 94 - 77 60% +15  99% 2 - 0 A- +17 A+ +24 B A+ A- D -6 C- A D-
 Sun, Nov 9 107 @Liberty L 68 - 88 35% -15  0% 2 - 1 D- -13 D -5 F A D+ F+ -9 D- C C
 Thu, Nov 20 117 Pacific W 82 - 59 62% +11  97% 3 - 1 A+ +23 A +13 A+ D F A+ +11 B+ A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 148 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 65 59% +7  97% 4 - 1 B+ +12 B+ +9 A B- F B +4 B A- D
 Tue, Nov 25 105 George Mason L 65 - 74 44% -11  0% 4 - 2 C- -5 C+ +3 B- D- C- F+ -9 F B+ F+
 Sun, Nov 30 142 St. Bonaventure L 65 - 70 69% -4  8% 4 - 3 D+ -7 F+ -9 F A- D- C+ +2 F+ A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 251 @Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 76 68% -0  43% 5 - 3 C+ +3 B- +4 D- C C- C -1 D B- A
 Sat, Dec 13 316 Albany W 105 - 79 92% +20  96% 6 - 3 B+ +14 B+ +8 A+ D- D+ B- +2 D A+ D+
 Fri, Dec 19 40 @St. Mary's L 75 - 88 11% -10  3% 6 - 4 C+ +3 C+ +2 C- A+ D- B- +2 B- B C+
 Tue, Dec 23 51 Central Florida L 80 - 85 24% +1  48% 6 - 5 B- +6 C +1 C- A+ B- B +5 B- B C+
 Wed, Dec 31 334 Texas San Antonio W 110 - 70 94% +27  94% 7 - 5 1 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +14 A+ B+ D- B+ +6 A- B+ B-
 Sun, Jan 4 162 @Tulane L 66 - 69 51% +1  52% 7 - 6 1 - 1 C -0 D- -7 D- B+ F A- +7 B+ D C+
 Wed, Jan 7 121 @UAB W 76 - 71 39% +7  93% 8 - 6 2 - 1 B +11 C +1 F+ B+ C+ A +10 A+ C+ A
 Sun, Jan 11 101 Memphis W 89 - 78 54% +8  92% 9 - 6 3 - 1 B+ +13 B+ +9 B+ A+ B- B- +3 D A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 97 Wichita St. W 85 - 67 52% +15  97% 10 - 6 4 - 1 A +21 A +12 A+ D- C A- +8 A B+ B
 Sun, Jan 18 156 @Temple W 79 - 73 50% -2  25% 11 - 6 5 - 1 B +9 D -5 F A C A+ +13 A B- A
 Wed, Jan 21 162 Tulane W 79 - 74 72% +6  94% 12 - 6 6 - 1 C+ +2 C +1 A- D B C+ +1 B D+ B+
 Sun, Jan 25 58 @South Florida L 75 - 89 19% -2  46% 12 - 7 6 - 2 C -2 B- +4 F+ A A D -5 A F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 101 @Memphis L 65 - 92 32% -12  2% 12 - 8 6 - 3 F -19 F+ -10 D C+ F D- -7 D- D+ D
 Sun, Feb 1 246 East Carolina L 75 - 76 84% +1  54% 12 - 9 6 - 4 D -9 C +1 A- C+ F F+ -9 D+ D D
 Wed, Feb 4 76 Tulsa L 76 - 78 44% +1  51% 12 - 10 6 - 5 C+ +3 D+ -3 D- A B B+ +6 B+ A+ F+
 Wed, Feb 11 232 @Rice L 73 - 81 65% -7  1% 12 - 11 6 - 6 D -9 D -4 F C+ B- D+ -4 D- A- F
 Sun, Feb 15 58 South Florida L 81 - 83 OT 37% +0  49% 12 - 12 6 - 7 C+ +4 C +1 C+ C+ A+ B +4 B A- D
 Wed, Feb 18 334 @Texas San Antonio W 60 - 52 86% +3  64% 13 - 12 7 - 7 C -0 F -17 F F C+ A+ +17 A+ C- C+
 Sun, Feb 22 137 @North Texas L 68 - 69 45%
 Thu, Feb 26 156 Temple W 77 - 71 71%
 Sun, Mar 1 174 Charlotte W 77 - 70 74%
 Sat, Mar 7 97 @Wichita St. L 70 - 76 31%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 +3 C +0 A- C C+ B- +3 D+ C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C A D+ C 39% 36% 41% C+ C+ C+ B- B- C- C C- C B- B B C B- 45% 18% 37% D C+ B C+ B- C C C+ C
1.09 58% 48% 32% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.1 .36 18% .30 71% .22 1.05 53% 35% 34% -2 +1 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 17% .30 72% .22
Nov
3		 Boston College C- F F A+ C+ 54% 11% 34% A+ B F+ C D C A- F C B- A+ A+ D- A 47% 9% 44% F B D+ F F B F+ A+ C
1.04 45% 14% 48% -3 +2 1.02 19% 0.9 .17 15% .37 52% .19 0.97 42% 0% 38% -9 +2 0.89 33% 1.4 .44 17% .36 50% .18
Nov
8		 College of Charleston A+ B- A+ D B 35% 15% 50% B+ B A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A A+ D B+ B+ F+ C 43% 20% 37% D C- F A+ A D- F+ F F
1.39 63% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.07 46% 1.3 .62 10% .36 77% .28 1.14 55% 30% 37% -2 0 1.00 36% 0.5 .19 13% .41 88% .36
Nov
9		 Liberty D F+ C F F 48% 22% 30% B- F B- A+ A D+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ F F+ 45% 7% 47% C+ D- C C C C B F C-
1.00 45% 40% 14% -15 +1 0.74 34% 1.6 .54 19% .44 88% .38 1.30 72% 0% 46% +12 +2 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 13% .22 85% .19
Nov
20		 Pacific A A+ A+ A+ A+ 25% 25% 50% C A+ C+ F D F C- A+ B- A+ A F A+ B+ 48% 33% 19% B+ B+ B- A+ A+ B+ F C+ F
1.26 75% 75% 42% +19 -2 1.38 27% 0.7 .19 20% .31 81% .25 0.91 45% 57% 25% -2 -1 0.95 32% 0.6 .19 23% .40 75% .30
Nov
24		 Loyola Marymount B+ B A+ B+ A+ 30% 22% 48% C A A+ F B- F D+ A+ C+ B B+ A+ F A- 43% 22% 35% D- B D+ A+ A- D B+ F+ B-
1.18 60% 55% 38% +7 -1 1.14 45% 0.8 .36 20% .27 86% .23 1.01 52% 18% 41% -3 0 0.96 29% 0.6 .18 15% .22 75% .16
Nov
25		 George Mason C+ A+ F D+ B- 38% 23% 40% C+ B- A- F D- C- C B- C F+ C+ D+ F F 40% 28% 33% B F D A+ B+ F+ D+ C+ C-
1.10 78% 18% 32% +1 0 1.04 34% 0.5 .17 17% .24 75% .18 1.25 59% 42% 57% +13 -1 1.26 34% 0.7 .24 12% .40 71% .29
Nov
30		 St. Bonaventure F+ F A+ F F 37% 15% 48% C+ F B+ B A- D- C- F D- C+ B- F F D 56% 14% 30% F F+ A+ C- A+ B- F A+ F+
1.00 41% 57% 27% -8 +1 0.87 36% 1.1 .41 20% .27 64% .17 1.08 54% 67% 46% +7 +2 1.21 15% 1.0 .15 18% .41 64% .26
Dec
7		 Florida Gulf Coast B- C- F D F+ 44% 17% 40% C+ D- A- F C C- A+ A+ A+ C D+ F B+ C- 47% 14% 39% F D C+ C+ B- A D+ F F
1.17 57% 25% 32% -4 +1 0.96 39% 0.9 .33 17% .56 84% .47 1.10 63% 57% 30% +2 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 22% .29 88% .26
Dec
13		 Albany B+ B A+ A+ A+ 37% 13% 50% C+ A+ D D D- D+ C F D- B- C+ D- F+ D- 40% 23% 37% B- D A+ D+ A+ D+ F+ A D+
1.29 64% 75% 47% +16 +1 1.37 30% 1.1 .33 16% .31 62% .19 0.97 57% 46% 38% +3 0 1.09 16% 1.0 .16 18% .30 60% .18
Dec
19		 St. Mary's C+ F A+ C- D 46% 17% 37% B+ C- C+ A+ A+ D- A+ F A+ B- F A+ A+ B+ 46% 12% 42% F B- D- A+ B C+ F B- F
0.98 33% 56% 32% -10 +1 0.85 25% 1.6 .40 18% .40 64% .26 1.15 71% 17% 27% -1 +2 1.04 42% 0.9 .36 17% .52 79% .41
Dec
23		 Central Florida C D- B D+ D+ 33% 18% 48% C+ C- C+ A+ A+ B- F B- F B D- F+ A+ B- 45% 24% 31% C- B- B+ C+ B C+ D- A C-
1.05 50% 45% 31% -3 0 0.95 27% 1.6 .44 16% .19 75% .14 1.12 68% 46% 24% +2 0 1.05 32% 1.2 .37 16% .34 68% .23
Dec
31		 Texas San Antonio A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 38% 9% 53% B- A+ C- A+ B+ D- B A A- B+ A+ A+ B A 41% 9% 50% F A- A+ C B+ B- F D- F
1.38 68% 60% 52% +20 +2 1.45 34% 1.4 .48 19% .31 80% .25 0.88 35% 20% 29% -15 +2 0.75 21% 0.9 .19 19% .46 77% .35
Jan
4		 Tulane D- D- A+ F D 28% 26% 46% D- D- B+ C+ B+ F D+ F D- A- B A+ D+ B+ 39% 19% 43% C- B+ C F D C+ A+ D+ A
0.95 50% 62% 22% -5 -1 0.90 41% 1.0 .41 26% .29 60% .17 0.99 52% 10% 35% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 16% .26 80% .20
Jan
7		 UAB C F A+ F F 34% 13% 53% B- F+ C+ A+ B+ C+ A+ B+ A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ 42% 25% 34% C A+ A F C+ A F C- F
1.03 44% 57% 25% -9 +1 0.85 28% 1.2 .33 16% .39 79% .31 0.96 41% 23% 28% -14 0 0.74 24% 1.3 .31 16% .45 71% .32
Jan
11		 Memphis B+ A A+ F A 30% 28% 42% D B+ B A+ A+ B- F D F B- A D+ F D+ 46% 9% 46% F D A+ F A+ C- B A+ A-
1.14 71% 56% 25% +3 -2 1.05 37% 1.4 .50 19% .25 69% .17 1.00 46% 40% 42% 0 +2 1.07 14% 1.6 .22 18% .25 63% .16
Jan
15		 Wichita St. A A+ A+ C A+ 46% 21% 32% A- A+ B F D- C B+ D- C+ A- A- B A+ A+ 55% 22% 24% D- A C+ A B+ B F A+ C-
1.21 73% 58% 33% +11 0 1.25 33% 0.5 .17 17% .33 63% .21 0.96 47% 33% 23% -11 +1 0.82 38% 0.8 .31 17% .40 57% .22
Jan
18		 Temple D B F F F 47% 20% 32% B- F D A+ A C B+ F+ B- A+ B+ A+ A A+ 46% 17% 38% F+ A B C- B- A F D+ F
1.00 64% 17% 16% -10 +1 0.83 24% 1.8 .44 15% .36 67% .24 0.93 50% 25% 28% -9 +1 0.85 26% 1.0 .26 19% .50 78% .39
Jan
21		 Tulane C C- A+ A+ A- 51% 15% 34% A- A- F A+ D B A+ F A- C+ A B- D B 45% 26% 30% C+ B B- F D+ B+ F F F
1.11 54% 57% 44% +6 +2 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 15% .48 59% .28 1.04 48% 33% 36% -5 0 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 18% .46 85% .39
Jan
25		 South Florida B- B- C+ F D- 22% 43% 35% F F+ B A A A C B C+ D C A+ A+ A+ 55% 8% 37% D+ A F F F D+ F B- F
1.06 58% 39% 21% -6 -4 0.81 35% 1.2 .42 14% .31 74% .23 1.26 56% 25% 17% -12 +3 0.84 51% 1.4 .71 14% .51 71% .36
Jan
29		 Memphis F+ F A- D+ D- 37% 16% 47% B D A- F+ C+ F A+ D+ A+ D- C F D+ F+ 46% 31% 24% B- D- C D D+ D C F D-
0.84 38% 43% 30% -10 0 0.84 41% 0.8 .31 31% .73 69% .50 1.18 59% 50% 36% +5 -1 1.10 36% 1.3 .45 17% .29 89% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 East Carolina C B B+ A- A- 40% 19% 42% B- A- B+ D- C+ F F+ A- D F+ A- C+ F C- 52% 22% 26% F+ D+ D+ D+ D D D D+ D
1.12 63% 44% 40% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.0 .38 24% .20 80% .16 1.13 46% 36% 38% -5 +1 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 15% .39 73% .28
Feb
4		 Tulsa D+ B+ D- F F+ 36% 17% 47% C+ D- A B A B D+ F D- B+ D+ A+ B- B+ 42% 15% 44% B B+ A+ B+ A+ F+ B A- B+
1.05 67% 30% 22% -6 0 0.90 35% 1.2 .43 14% .24 60% .14 1.08 61% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.02 19% 1.1 .22 11% .30 74% .22
Feb
11		 Rice D D+ B+ F F 26% 44% 30% F F B- C- C+ B- A D+ A- D+ F C- B+ D- 31% 22% 47% F+ D- A+ F A- F C- A B-
1.05 57% 42% 19% -5 -4 0.83 36% 1.0 .36 14% .42 72% .30 1.16 78% 38% 30% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.1 .24 7% .31 60% .19
Feb
15		 South Florida C A- C- C- B- 33% 28% 39% D+ C+ D- A+ C+ A+ F C F B A+ A+ F A- 64% 2% 34% F B A D+ A- D A+ A+ A+
1.06 65% 35% 33% +1 -1 1.02 24% 1.3 .32 13% .20 69% .14 1.08 38% 0% 43% -9 +4 0.93 30% 1.2 .37 13% .26 65% .17
Feb
18		 Texas San Antonio F D+ C- F F 36% 28% 36% F+ F F F F C+ B D- C+ A+ A- B+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 42% B A+ C- C- C- C+ B A+ A
0.89 56% 36% 22% -8 -1 0.84 26% 0.5 .14 15% .31 67% .21 0.77 44% 31% 14% -19 -1 0.62 32% 0.9 .30 18% .22 50% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.4 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.9 4.2 3rd
4th 0.0 7.0 3.5 10.5 4th
5th 1.5 16.1 0.4 18.0 5th
6th 0.0 10.6 6.8 0.0 17.5 6th
7th 0.3 18.0 0.4 18.7 7th
8th 3.6 7.4 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.2 10.2 0.7 11.1 9th
10th 2.8 5.2 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 0.6 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 3.5 19.2 38.3 30.7 8.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 8.2% 10.3% 10.3% 12.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 7.4
10-8 30.7% 4.9% 4.9% 12.5 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 29.2
9-9 38.3% 3.0% 3.0% 13.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 37.2
8-10 19.2% 1.8% 1.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 18.9
7-11 3.5% 2.1% 2.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 3.4
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 12.7 96.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 12.1 9.5 73.5 17.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0%
Lose Out 1.7%