Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.6 #109
Expected Predictive Rating +3.9 #103
Pace 73.8 #52
Improvement -2.7 #294

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #123 C+ B- D+ C C+
Defense #115 C+ B- C C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #144 1.16 #171 +0.8 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #227 1.00 #4 +1.1 #113
Three Pointers 42% #156 1.00 #212 +0.2 #171
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #115 +2.1 #116
Freethrows 0.30 #176 72% #206 0.22 #179
Second Chance 34.1% #84 1.09 #96 0.37 #68
Turnovers 18.0% #263
Total Offense +1.8 #123

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #28 1.05 #59 -1.3 #222
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #244 0.70 #77 +1.4 #85
Three Pointers 37% #293 1.07 #251 +1.2 #129
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #134 +1.2 #137
Freethrows 0.31 #216 73% #238 0.23 #224
Second Chance 27.2% #66 1.01 #159 0.28 #83
Turnovers 17.1% #152
Total Defense +1.8 #115

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #126 1.5% #305
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.5% #115 -3.9% #97
Possession Length 15.6 #40 17.4 #217
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #78 0.16 #159
Improvement -4.0 #344 +1.3 #107

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 9.3% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.2 12.5
.500 or above 94.0% 98.7% 90.2%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 98.4% 89.1%
Conference Champion 7.2% 14.4% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.6% 9.3% 6.2%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Home) - 44.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 53 - 8
Quad 39 - 312 - 11
Quad 46 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 127 Boston College W 83 - 78 OT 67% +2  1 - 0 +4 +3 B+ D- C+ +0 B F B-
 Sat, Nov 8 152 College of Charleston W 94 - 77 63% +15  2 - 0 +17 +25 B A+ B+ -7 C A D
 Sun, Nov 9 89 @Liberty L 68 - 88 30% -15  2 - 1 -11 -1 F A+ C- -11 D- C C
 Thu, Nov 20 125 Pacific W 82 - 59 66% +11  3 - 1 +22 +15 A+ D F +9 B+ A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 170 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 65 66% +7  4 - 1 +10 +12 A+ B- D- -1 B- A- D
 Tue, Nov 25 84 George Mason L 65 - 74 38% -11  4 - 2 -2 +7 B- D C -11 F B F+
 Sun, Nov 30 141 St. Bonaventure L 65 - 70 70% -4  4 - 3 -7 -6 F B+ D+ -2 F+ A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 223 @Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 76 65% -0  5 - 3 +5 +7 D C C- -3 D+ B- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 316 Albany W 105 - 79 93% +20  6 - 3 +13 +11 A+ D- D+ -2 D- A+ C-
 Fri, Dec 19 42 @St. Mary's L 75 - 88 15% -10  6 - 4 +2 +4 C- A+ D- -1 C+ B- C+
 Tue, Dec 23 44 Central Florida L 80 - 85 22% +1  6 - 5 +7 +5 C- A+ B- +2 B- A- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 342 Texas San Antonio W 110 - 70 95% +27  7 - 5 1 - 0 +25 +17 A+ B+ D +3 B+ B C
 Sun, Jan 4 171 @Tulane L 66 - 69 56% +1  7 - 6 1 - 1 -1 -6 D- B- F +5 B D B-
 Wed, Jan 7 120 @UAB W 76 - 71 41% +7  8 - 6 2 - 1 +11 +2 F+ B C +9 A+ C+ A-
 Sun, Jan 11 96 Memphis W 89 - 78 54% +8  9 - 6 3 - 1 +13 +12 B+ A+ B- +0 D+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 99 Wichita St. W 85 - 67 57% +15  10 - 6 4 - 1 +20 +13 A+ F+ C- +7 A- A+ B
 Sun, Jan 18 143 @Temple W 79 - 73 48% -2  11 - 6 5 - 1 +10 -2 F A C +11 A C+ A
 Wed, Jan 21 171 Tulane W 79 - 74 76% +6  12 - 6 6 - 1 +1 +2 B+ D- B -1 B D+ B+
 Sun, Jan 25 70 @South Florida L 75 - 89 24% -2  12 - 7 6 - 2 -3 +6 F+ A A -9 A- F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 96 @Memphis L 65 - 92 32% -12  12 - 8 6 - 3 -19 -6 D C+ F -9 D- D+ D
 Sun, Feb 1 247 East Carolina L 75 - 76 86% +1  12 - 9 6 - 4 -9 +4 B+ C+ F -13 C- D D-
 Wed, Feb 4 69 Tulsa L 81 - 83 45%
 Wed, Feb 11 233 @Rice W 78 - 73 66%
 Sun, Feb 15 70 South Florida L 82 - 83 45%
 Wed, Feb 18 342 @Texas San Antonio W 84 - 72 88%
 Sun, Feb 22 147 @North Texas L 68 - 69 49%
 Wed, Feb 25 143 Temple W 79 - 73 70%
 Sun, Mar 1 157 Charlotte W 79 - 72 74%
 Sat, Mar 7 99 @Wichita St. L 73 - 77 35%
Totals 17 - 12 11 - 7 +4 +2 C+ B- D+ +2 C+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 4.1 1.8 7.2 1st
2nd 1.1 8.9 3.9 0.1 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 7.8 8.2 0.4 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 2.4 12.0 1.5 16.0 4th
5th 0.3 8.1 5.4 0.0 13.8 5th
6th 0.0 3.0 8.9 0.6 12.5 6th
7th 0.4 5.9 2.9 0.1 9.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 3.7 0.3 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.4 3.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 1.2 5.4 13.3 22.8 26.9 20.0 8.4 1.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 92.9% 1.8    1.1 0.6 0.0
13-5 48.4% 4.1    1.0 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.6% 1.3    0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.2% 7.2 2.1 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.9% 15.3% 15.3% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.6
13-5 8.4% 15.9% 15.9% 12.0 0.1 1.1 0.2 7.1
12-6 20.0% 11.8% 11.8% 12.2 0.1 1.6 0.6 0.0 17.6
11-7 26.9% 8.1% 8.1% 12.5 0.0 1.1 0.9 0.1 24.8
10-8 22.8% 3.8% 3.8% 12.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 21.9
9-9 13.3% 3.3% 3.3% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.9
8-10 5.4% 2.2% 2.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.3
7-11 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 12.4 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.4 1.7 55.2 43.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%