Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#188
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#232
Pace61.7#342
Improvement+0.3#165

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#182
First Shot-1.5#222
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#116
Layup/Dunks+1.9#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#60
Freethrows-6.0#364
Improvement+1.5#79

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#199
First Shot-2.2#250
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#81
Layups/Dunks+0.6#147
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#340
Freethrows+1.6#67
Improvement-1.2#275
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.3% 14.1% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 56.7% 70.2% 45.9%
.500 or above in Conference 90.1% 92.6% 88.1%
Conference Champion 14.5% 17.3% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.4% 0.9% 1.8%
First Round11.8% 13.8% 10.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Away) - 44.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 32 - 63 - 11
Quad 413 - 416 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 161   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-73 34%     0 - 1 -6.1 -1.5 -5.3
  Nov 08, 2024 67   @ TCU L 51-67 13%     0 - 2 -5.0 -7.9 +1.4
  Nov 13, 2024 87   St. Bonaventure L 65-74 32%     0 - 3 -5.6 -2.8 -3.0
  Nov 16, 2024 80   @ Drake L 61-63 14%     0 - 4 +8.3 +0.8 +7.2
  Nov 22, 2024 260   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-54 74%     1 - 4 +11.7 +12.8 +2.9
  Nov 23, 2024 170   Northeastern L 55-59 58%     1 - 5 -7.5 -11.3 +3.3
  Nov 24, 2024 261   Florida International W 60-59 75%     2 - 5 -7.4 -9.2 +1.9
  Nov 30, 2024 88   @ Florida Atlantic W 80-78 16%     3 - 5 +11.3 +16.2 -4.7
  Dec 04, 2024 115   Furman L 73-76 44%     3 - 6 -3.0 +4.5 -7.7
  Dec 08, 2024 56   @ LSU L 71-80 10%     3 - 7 +3.4 +6.6 -3.4
  Dec 18, 2024 133   @ UNC Wilmington L 66-79 28%     3 - 8 -8.4 +1.1 -10.9
  Dec 28, 2024 216   @ Richmond L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 02, 2025 341   @ West Georgia W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 265   @ Queens W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 09, 2025 198   North Alabama W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 338   Central Arkansas W 74-61 88%    
  Jan 16, 2025 341   West Georgia W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 18, 2025 265   Queens W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 23, 2025 345   @ Bellarmine W 74-67 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 229   @ Eastern Kentucky L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 29, 2025 211   @ Jacksonville L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 348   Stetson W 77-64 89%    
  Feb 06, 2025 229   Eastern Kentucky W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 08, 2025 207   @ North Florida L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 13, 2025 283   @ Austin Peay W 64-62 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 108   @ Lipscomb L 64-73 22%    
  Feb 18, 2025 211   Jacksonville W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 20, 2025 348   @ Stetson W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 24, 2025 207   North Florida W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 26, 2025 345   Bellarmine W 77-64 88%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 4.8 3.1 1.2 0.2 14.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.5 7.8 6.9 3.1 0.6 0.0 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.7 5.2 1.3 0.1 18.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.6 4.0 0.7 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.0 8.1 11.5 14.5 15.9 15.2 11.8 8.0 3.7 1.3 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 97.8% 1.2    1.2 0.1
16-2 83.8% 3.1    2.3 0.7 0.0
15-3 59.9% 4.8    2.7 1.9 0.2
14-4 30.2% 3.6    1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.2% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.5% 14.5 7.9 4.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 36.1% 36.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.3% 33.1% 33.1% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
16-2 3.7% 29.9% 29.9% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 2.6
15-3 8.0% 24.2% 24.2% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 6.1
14-4 11.8% 19.2% 19.2% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.1 9.5
13-5 15.2% 15.3% 15.3% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.4 12.8
12-6 15.9% 11.1% 11.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.6 14.1
11-7 14.5% 8.3% 8.3% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.8 13.3
10-8 11.5% 6.3% 6.3% 15.9 0.1 0.7 10.8
9-9 8.1% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 7.8
8-10 5.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 4.9
7-11 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.8
6-12 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-13 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.1 4.6 3.0 87.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 11.9 12.5 87.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%