Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 #189
Expected Predictive Rating -5.4 #251
Pace 70.0 #165
Improvement -1.5 #266

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #123 B C C D- D
Defense #284 D C C F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #291 1.23 #97 -1.0 #218
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #83 0.90 #29 +3.9 #27
Three Pointers 40% #209 1.10 #74 +1.1 #138
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #76 +4.0 #75
Freethrows 14.3 #322 70% #248 10.1 #319
Second Chance 31.1% #172 1.02 #215 0.32 #177
Turnovers 16.4% #163
Total Offense +1.5 #123

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #139 1.19 #219 -1.6 #238
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #319 0.75 #175 +1.8 #61
Three Pointers 44% #93 1.10 #296 -3.7 #316
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #291 -3.4 #290
Freethrows 22.2 #348 76% #324 17.0 #12
Second Chance 30.6% #169 1.04 #190 0.32 #179
Turnovers 16.5% #190
Total Defense -3.5 #284

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #297 1.5% #300
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.0% #44 5.2% #279
Possession Length 17.1 #157 17.1 #149
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #70 0.19 #252
Improvement -1.4 #273 -0.1 #193

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.9% 20.2% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 68.9% 79.5% 53.4%
.500 or above in Conference 89.1% 94.6% 81.1%
Conference Champion 13.9% 20.1% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four2.9% 2.2% 3.8%
First Round16.7% 19.3% 13.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 59.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 414 - 716 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 9 @Illinois L 70 - 113 2%  -31  0 - 1 -20 +2 C- F A+ -19 F F F
 Tue, Nov 11 213 Georgia Southern L 94 - 95 65%  -3  0 - 2 -7 +13 B- A+ C+ -20 F B+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 273 Chattanooga W 91 - 73 76%  +13  1 - 2 +9 +14 C+ A+ A+ -5 C B C-
 Wed, Nov 19 229 @Samford W 77 - 62 46%  +9  2 - 2 +14 +4 B+ A+ F +11 A- B- B-
 Mon, Nov 24 298 Oral Roberts W 93 - 88 80%  +0  3 - 2 -6 +10 A+ A- C -16 F D- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 245 Rice W 78 - 63 OT 71%  -4  4 - 2 +7 -8 D+ D- F +14 A A- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 162 Kennesaw St. L 100 - 102 OT 55%  -0  4 - 3 -5 +7 B+ C- B -11 F A- A-
 Wed, Dec 3 164 @Florida International L 83 - 89 33%  -6  4 - 4 -4 +4 C C- B- -7 C+ D+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 106 Florida Atlantic L 76 - 81 37%  +0  4 - 5 -4 +4 B- C+ F -8 A B C
 Sun, Dec 14 56 @New Mexico L 59 - 75 9%  -5  4 - 6 -3 -5 C- D- B+ +1 A+ C A
 Sat, Dec 20 50 @Central Florida L 80 - 102 8%  -5  4 - 7 -8 +10 A+ D D- -18 F C C-
 Thu, Jan 1 261 @Central Arkansas L 83 - 85 53%  +3  4 - 8 0 - 1 -5 +17 A+ C B- -21 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 293 @North Alabama W 72 - 55 60%  +8  5 - 8 1 - 1 +13 -1 B+ F F +14 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Jan 8 186 Austin Peay L 71 - 82 61%  -3  5 - 9 1 - 2 -16 -1 B- C D -15 D F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 177 Lipscomb W 80 - 78 59% 
 Thu, Jan 15 207 Queens W 85 - 81 63% 
 Sat, Jan 17 297 West Georgia W 82 - 73 79% 
 Thu, Jan 22 186 @Austin Peay L 74 - 77 39% 
 Sat, Jan 24 177 @Lipscomb L 77 - 81 37% 
 Thu, Jan 29 293 North Alabama W 79 - 71 79% 
 Sat, Jan 31 328 @Jacksonville W 75 - 69 69% 
 Thu, Feb 5 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 80 - 79 51% 
 Sat, Feb 7 280 @Bellarmine W 80 - 78 56% 
 Wed, Feb 11 350 North Florida W 92 - 78 90% 
 Sat, Feb 14 337 Stetson W 84 - 71 88% 
 Thu, Feb 19 328 Jacksonville W 78 - 66 85% 
 Sat, Feb 21 261 Central Arkansas W 81 - 74 73% 
 Thu, Feb 26 350 @North Florida W 89 - 81 76% 
 Sat, Feb 28 337 @Stetson W 81 - 74 72% 
Totals 15 - 14 11 - 7 -2 +1 B C C -3 D C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 3.8 5.5 3.0 0.7 13.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 6.1 7.2 3.1 0.4 0.0 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.9 8.2 3.1 0.3 18.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.7 8.3 2.9 0.2 16.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.7 6.6 2.7 0.3 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.7 2.2 0.2 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.0 6.3 10.4 14.6 18.4 18.4 14.3 8.9 3.4 0.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 98.6% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 87.7% 3.0    2.2 0.7 0.1
14-4 62.2% 5.5    3.0 2.0 0.6 0.0
13-5 26.9% 3.8    0.9 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 6.8 4.7 2.0 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.7% 43.6% 43.6% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
15-3 3.4% 37.0% 37.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.1
14-4 8.9% 31.2% 31.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.2 6.1
13-5 14.3% 25.8% 25.8% 15.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 0.8 10.6
12-6 18.4% 19.9% 19.9% 15.4 0.3 1.8 1.6 14.7
11-7 18.4% 15.1% 15.1% 15.6 0.0 1.0 1.8 15.6
10-8 14.6% 13.8% 13.8% 15.8 0.4 1.6 12.6
9-9 10.4% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9 9.5
8-10 6.3% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 5.9
7-11 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 3.0
6-12 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 15.2 82.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.9 1.6 27.9 54.1 16.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%