Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.2 #287
Expected Predictive Rating -5.9 #257
Pace 67.9 #213
Improvement -3.1 #311

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #320 C- D+ F B C
Defense #232 D+ D+ B D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #115 1.12 #235 +0.6 #153
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #145 0.63 #339 -0.9 #230
Three Pointers 37% #266 1.00 #199 -2.3 #264
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #254 -2.6 #254
Freethrows 0.36 #29 72% #207 0.26 #44
Second Chance 28.6% #243 0.90 #331 0.26 #296
Turnovers 21.0% #358
Total Offense -5.8 #320

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #98 1.25 #293 -3.9 #305
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #311 0.74 #153 +1.8 #54
Three Pointers 42% #150 1.07 #256 -1.6 #259
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #296 -3.6 #296
Freethrows 0.34 #303 74% #263 0.25 #309
Second Chance 35.5% #334 1.02 #179 0.36 #301
Turnovers 19.6% #40
Total Defense -1.5 #232

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #191 1.6% #318
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.9% #265 5.4% #286
Possession Length 17.3 #180 16.9 #132
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #86 0.22 #336
Improvement -3.5 #335 +0.4 #166

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 15.2% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 47.3% 58.9% 32.2%
.500 or above in Conference 78.3% 87.3% 66.5%
Conference Champion 12.5% 16.9% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.2% 9.9% 8.2%
First Round8.3% 10.0% 6.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Away) - 56.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 414 - 1015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 4 @Iowa St. L 62 - 102 1% -16  0 - 1 -15 -2 C D D -10 D+ D+ C+
 Sun, Nov 9 253 @Howard W 73 - 70 32% +1  1 - 1 +1 +8 B- A+ F -7 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 250 Southern Miss W 75 - 70 54% +6  2 - 1 -3 +1 A D F -4 A+ F D
 Tue, Nov 18 202 @San Diego L 68 - 78 23% -7  2 - 2 -10 -9 F D+ C- -0 C+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 134 @California Baptist L 59 - 72 13% -13  2 - 3 -8 -5 C F F -4 F B- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 291 @UC Riverside L 74 - 83 40% +1  2 - 4 -14 +0 F C B+ -14 F D+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 171 @Tulane L 63 - 65 19% -0  2 - 5 +0 -1 D+ B F +1 B D+ D
 Mon, Dec 8 250 @Southern Miss L 60 - 68 31% +1  2 - 6 -10 -11 D+ F F +0 D- C A+
 Thu, Dec 18 307 Norfolk St. W 80 - 68 56% +14  3 - 6 +3 +0 C+ F A +3 B+ D D+
 Fri, Dec 19 251 Hampton W 81 - 72 42% +7  4 - 6 +4 +12 B A+ F -8 F A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 23 36 @Ohio St. L 63 - 89 2% -13  4 - 7 -9 -1 D- B F -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 339 Prairie View W 76 - 72 75% +4  5 - 7 1 - 0 -10 -8 C- D+ F -3 C+ F+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 309 Texas Southern W 84 - 67 67% +9  6 - 7 2 - 0 +5 +5 B B D +0 A F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 236 @Bethune-Cookman L 65 - 74 28% -8  6 - 8 2 - 1 -10 -11 D+ F F +2 C+ F A
 Mon, Jan 12 317 @Florida A&M L 84 - 91 47% -3  6 - 9 2 - 2 -14 +7 C B B- -20 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 266 Southern L 53 - 71 57% -11  6 - 10 2 - 3 -27 -23 F C F -4 D- A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 337 @Jackson St. W 69 - 66 54% +3  7 - 10 3 - 3 -5 -3 D+ F D+ -2 C C- D+
 Mon, Feb 2 348 @Alcorn St. W 73 - 71 57%
 Wed, Feb 4 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 78 - 72 73%
 Sat, Feb 7 322 Alabama St. W 76 - 70 71%
 Mon, Feb 9 293 Alabama A&M W 71 - 68 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 309 @Texas Southern L 74 - 75 45%
 Mon, Feb 16 339 @Prairie View W 75 - 74 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 266 @Southern L 70 - 74 34%
 Mon, Feb 23 365 Mississippi Valley W 77 - 58 96%
 Thu, Feb 26 236 Bethune-Cookman L 71 - 72 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 317 Florida A&M W 72 - 67 69%
 Tue, Mar 3 293 @Alabama A&M L 68 - 71 41%
 Thu, Mar 5 322 @Alabama St. L 72 - 73 49%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 -7 -6 C- D+ F -1 D+ D+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.0 4.4 4.8 1.9 0.4 12.5 1st
2nd 0.8 7.2 7.3 1.9 0.2 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.9 7.7 1.3 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 1.2 8.4 2.1 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 5.2 4.9 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 7.2 0.7 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 3.6 3.8 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.7 5.0 0.4 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.1 2.5 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.6 0.3 3.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.3 12.4 18.0 19.9 18.1 13.1 6.7 2.0 0.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-4 91.9% 1.9    1.4 0.4
13-5 71.3% 4.8    2.6 2.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 33.5% 4.4    0.8 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
11-7 5.7% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 5.2 4.5 1.9 0.8 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 32.9% 32.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
14-4 2.0% 28.9% 28.9% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.4
13-5 6.7% 25.2% 25.2% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.4 5.0
12-6 13.1% 21.6% 21.6% 15.9 0.2 2.6 10.2
11-7 18.1% 16.8% 16.8% 16.0 0.0 3.0 15.1
10-8 19.9% 13.7% 13.7% 16.0 0.0 2.7 17.2
9-9 18.0% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 1.6 16.3
8-10 12.4% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.5 11.9
7-11 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
6-12 2.3% 2.3
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 15.9 86.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 14.5 3.7 44.4 51.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%