Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.8 #246
Expected Predictive Rating -2.8 #217
Pace 67.4 #233
Improvement +1.9 #83

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #277 C D+ F A C
Defense #209 D D- A D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #95 1.15 #180 +1.8 #115
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #148 0.62 #328 -1.0 #223
Three Pointers 36% #281 1.06 #124 -1.5 #241
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #192 -0.6 #191
Freethrows 21.9 #16 72% #200 15.8 #25
Second Chance 28.7% #244 0.98 #257 0.28 #263
Turnovers 20.8% #357
Total Offense -3.7 #277

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #73 1.26 #299 -4.8 #325
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #297 0.67 #70 +2.2 #41
Three Pointers 41% #199 1.06 #254 -0.8 #207
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #287 -3.4 #288
Freethrows 19.9 #305 75% #281 14.9 #47
Second Chance 35.7% #332 1.07 #221 0.38 #309
Turnovers 20.5% #22
Total Defense -1.1 #209

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #179 1.7% #314
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #194 4.9% #273
Possession Length 17.6 #200 17.3 #195
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #84 0.22 #323
Improvement +0.3 #164 +1.6 #78

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.9% 26.3% 19.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 81.1% 90.7% 72.8%
.500 or above in Conference 90.2% 96.3% 84.9%
Conference Champion 33.3% 46.7% 21.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.8% 9.3% 10.2%
First Round18.0% 21.7% 14.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Away) - 46.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 417 - 718 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 3 @Iowa St. L 62 - 102 1%  -16  0 - 1 -14 -1 C D- D+ -11 C- D B-
 Sun, Nov 9 271 @Howard W 73 - 70 45%  +1  1 - 1 -0 +8 B A+ F -8 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 201 Southern Miss W 75 - 70 53%  +6  2 - 1 -0 +1 A+ D- F -1 A+ F D
 Tue, Nov 18 222 @San Diego L 68 - 78 33%  -7  2 - 2 -10 -9 F D- C -1 B A- A-
 Fri, Nov 21 147 @California Baptist L 59 - 72 21%  -13  2 - 3 -9 -6 C F F -4 F B A+
 Mon, Nov 24 295 @UC Riverside L 74 - 83 49%  +1  2 - 4 -14 -0 F C B- -13 F F B
 Tue, Dec 2 176 @Tulane L 63 - 65 26%  -0  2 - 5 -0 -1 D- B F +1 B+ D- D-
 Mon, Dec 8 201 @Southern Miss L 60 - 68 30%  +1  2 - 6 -7 -11 D+ F F +3 D- C+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 272 Norfolk St. W 80 - 68 57%  +14  3 - 6 +6 +2 B- F A+ +3 B+ D- C
 Fri, Dec 19 252 Hampton W 81 - 72 51%  +7  4 - 6 +4 +12 B+ A+ F -7 F A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 23 30 @Ohio St. L 63 - 89 3%  -13  4 - 7 -9 -0 D- A- F -10 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 306 Prairie View W 76 - 72 74%  +4  5 - 7 1 - 0 -8 -7 C- C F -1 B- D- A+
 Mon, Jan 5 335 Texas Southern W 84 - 67 80%  +9  6 - 7 2 - 0 +3 +6 B+ C+ D- -3 A- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 278 @Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 74 46% 
 Mon, Jan 12 345 @Florida A&M W 74 - 70 65% 
 Sat, Jan 17 256 Southern W 76 - 72 63% 
 Sat, Jan 24 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 58 98% 
 Mon, Jan 26 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82 - 73 79% 
 Sat, Jan 31 342 @Jackson St. W 75 - 71 64% 
 Mon, Feb 2 346 @Alcorn St. W 76 - 72 66% 
 Sat, Feb 7 301 Alabama St. W 77 - 71 71% 
 Mon, Feb 9 303 Alabama A&M W 72 - 66 71% 
 Sat, Feb 14 335 @Texas Southern W 74 - 71 61% 
 Mon, Feb 16 306 @Prairie View W 77 - 76 54% 
 Sat, Feb 21 256 @Southern L 73 - 75 41% 
 Thu, Feb 26 278 Bethune-Cookman W 76 - 71 67% 
 Thu, Feb 26 345 Florida A&M W 77 - 67 82% 
 Tue, Mar 3 303 @Alabama A&M W 69 - 68 51% 
 Thu, Mar 5 301 @Alabama St. W 74 - 73 51% 
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 6 -5 -4 C D+ F -1 D D- A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 4.4 9.8 9.8 6.1 2.3 0.4 33.3 1st
2nd 0.2 3.9 8.5 4.5 1.0 0.1 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 7.1 3.5 0.4 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 5.1 3.9 0.4 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 4.5 0.7 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.0 1.3 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 2.1 0.1 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.3 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.6 9.6 13.3 16.1 16.9 14.7 10.8 6.2 2.3 0.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.0
15-3 98.7% 6.1    5.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 90.3% 9.8    7.5 2.1 0.1
13-5 66.5% 9.8    4.6 4.1 1.0 0.1
12-6 26.3% 4.4    0.9 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.0
11-7 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.3% 33.3 21.5 8.2 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.4% 51.9% 51.9% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 2.3% 44.8% 44.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.3
15-3 6.2% 38.7% 38.7% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.5 3.8
14-4 10.8% 33.9% 33.9% 15.5 0.2 1.5 2.0 7.2
13-5 14.7% 28.3% 28.3% 15.8 0.0 0.8 3.3 10.5
12-6 16.9% 25.0% 25.0% 15.9 0.0 0.6 3.6 12.6
11-7 16.1% 20.5% 20.5% 16.0 0.2 3.1 12.8
10-8 13.3% 17.1% 17.1% 16.0 0.1 2.2 11.0
9-9 9.6% 12.4% 12.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2 8.4
8-10 5.6% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.4 5.2
7-11 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.7
6-12 1.1% 1.1
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 15.6 77.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.0 18.4 65.8 15.8