Grand Canyon
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.0 #83
Expected Predictive Rating +5.6 #93
Pace 69.7 #173
Improvement +3.3 #35

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #134 C- C+ C B- B-
Defense #40 A- B- B C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #78 1.21 #120 +3.4 #76
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #206 0.62 #320 -1.8 #264
Three Pointers 39% #236 0.92 #287 -3.0 #284
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #207 -1.4 #205
Freethrows 17.4 #186 79% #17 13.8 #109
Second Chance 35.3% #58 1.00 #243 0.35 #117
Turnovers 16.9% #197
Total Offense +1.1 #134

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #244 1.08 #83 +2.7 #86
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #64 0.75 #173 -1.6 #290
Three Pointers 39% #242 0.86 #31 +4.2 #41
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #43 +5.3 #43
Freethrows 17.8 #205 71% #117 12.6 #167
Second Chance 25.1% #24 1.11 #263 0.28 #85
Turnovers 18.7% #71
Total Defense +5.9 #40

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #120 -1.4% #70
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.7% #231 -9.1% #40
Possession Length 17.6 #207 17.0 #142
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #210 0.16 #144
Improvement +0.7 #139 +2.6 #45

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 8.7% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.4% 1.5% 0.3%
Average Seed 10.9 10.9 11.3
.500 or above 95.1% 96.4% 84.1%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 90.0% 70.7%
Conference Champion 7.3% 7.9% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
First Round7.7% 8.2% 3.7%
Second Round2.0% 2.1% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Home) - 89.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 6
Quad 24 - 36 - 9
Quad 34 - 310 - 11
Quad 410 - 120 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 243 Purdue Fort Wayne W 90 - 71 91%  +15  1 - 0 +11 +7 A+ C+ C +3 B+ C B+
 Fri, Nov 7 210 Youngstown St. L 81 - 90 88%  -3  1 - 1 -15 +4 D A+ C -18 D- F F
 Mon, Nov 10 325 Northern Illinois W 88 - 59 96%  +17  2 - 1 +16 +7 C A+ F +8 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 29 @Saint Louis L 64 - 78 17%  -11  2 - 2 +3 -4 F F C+ +8 B+ A- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 288 Northwestern St. W 85 - 72 94%  +8  3 - 2 +3 +7 C- B C -4 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 117 Utah W 68 - 58 64%  +6  4 - 2 +13 -2 F D- A+ +16 A+ C A+
 Wed, Nov 26 20 Iowa L 46 - 59 19%  -6  4 - 3 +3 -11 C+ F F +13 A+ B A+
 Tue, Dec 2 337 Stetson W 67 - 45 97%  +4  5 - 3 +8 -10 F C F +19 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 6 54 Oklahoma St. L 78 - 84 39%  -2  5 - 4 +4 +9 D A+ A+ -5 F A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 270 Coastal Carolina W 82 - 61 93%  +19  6 - 4 +12 +10 D A+ A+ +2 C+ A- F
 Sat, Dec 20 95 @Wyoming W 82 - 70 43%  +14  7 - 4 1 - 0 +21 +9 A+ D- F +11 A+ C C
 Mon, Dec 22 355 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 78 97%  +8  8 - 4 -3 +2 C B+ D -7 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 94 Colorado St. L 60 - 70 66%  -10  8 - 5 1 - 1 -7 -8 F C+ C- -1 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 63 @Boise St. W 75 - 58 32%  +7  9 - 5 2 - 1 +29 +13 A+ C+ D +17 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 221 San Jose St. W 77 - 64 90% 
 Tue, Jan 13 56 @New Mexico L 70 - 76 30% 
 Sat, Jan 17 35 Utah St. L 72 - 76 36% 
 Wed, Jan 21 52 San Diego St. L 71 - 72 49% 
 Sat, Jan 24 157 @Fresno St. W 73 - 69 65% 
 Tue, Jan 27 90 @Nevada L 69 - 71 41% 
 Fri, Jan 30 63 Boise St. W 69 - 68 54% 
 Tue, Feb 3 334 Air Force W 76 - 55 97% 
 Sat, Feb 7 142 @UNLV W 76 - 73 61% 
 Wed, Feb 11 56 New Mexico W 73 - 72 52% 
 Sat, Feb 14 221 @San Jose St. W 74 - 67 75% 
 Tue, Feb 17 52 @San Diego St. L 69 - 75 28% 
 Sat, Feb 21 95 Wyoming W 74 - 70 65% 
 Wed, Feb 25 142 UNLV W 79 - 70 80% 
 Sat, Feb 28 35 @Utah St. L 69 - 79 18% 
 Tue, Mar 3 334 @Air Force W 73 - 58 91% 
 Sat, Mar 7 157 Fresno St. W 76 - 66 82% 
Totals 19 - 12 12 - 8 +7 +1 C- C+ C +6 A- B- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 7.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 5.1 4.6 1.6 0.2 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 7.0 6.1 1.5 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 7.1 6.7 1.2 0.0 16.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 5.7 6.5 1.5 0.1 15.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.2 5.8 1.8 0.1 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.3 1.6 0.1 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.5 1.1 0.1 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.4 6.8 11.0 15.1 17.4 16.9 13.0 8.3 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-3 89.6% 1.4    1.1 0.3 0.0
16-4 61.7% 2.6    1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 26.8% 2.2    0.5 1.1 0.5 0.1
14-6 4.7% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 3.5 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.4% 65.0% 30.0% 35.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 50.0%
17-3 1.6% 46.4% 25.2% 21.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 28.3%
16-4 4.2% 26.1% 16.9% 9.2% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.0 3.1 11.0%
15-5 8.3% 17.2% 14.3% 2.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.1 6.9 3.4%
14-6 13.0% 12.5% 11.7% 0.8% 11.1 0.1 1.3 0.2 11.4 0.9%
13-7 16.9% 7.4% 7.2% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.2 15.6 0.2%
12-8 17.4% 5.4% 5.4% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 16.5 0.1%
11-9 15.1% 3.7% 3.7% 11.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 14.5
10-10 11.0% 1.4% 1.4% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.9
9-11 6.8% 1.5% 1.5% 12.1 0.1 0.0 6.7
8-12 3.4% 1.6% 1.6% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
7-13 1.2% 1.2
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.2% 7.0% 1.3% 10.9 91.8 1.4%