Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#107
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#111
Pace75.2#40
Improvement-0.3#193

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#140
First Shot+0.2#168
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#123
Layup/Dunks+2.1#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#164
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#258
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement-3.0#347

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#92
First Shot+2.1#110
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#83
Layups/Dunks+1.2#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#163
Freethrows+2.2#46
Improvement+2.7#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.8% 37.6% 30.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 13.3
.500 or above 98.8% 99.2% 95.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 95.6% 91.8%
Conference Champion 51.4% 52.4% 42.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round36.8% 37.6% 30.4%
Second Round5.5% 5.7% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Neutral) - 89.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 38 - 39 - 7
Quad 413 - 321 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 89-79 90%     1 - 0 +0.6 +7.4 -7.3
  Nov 09, 2024 108   Western Kentucky W 74-72 62%     2 - 0 +3.2 -2.3 +5.3
  Nov 14, 2024 59   Arizona St. L 76-87 32%     2 - 1 -1.7 +4.3 -5.3
  Nov 20, 2024 223   UC Davis L 68-75 85%     2 - 2 -13.5 -7.5 -5.6
  Nov 22, 2024 184   Norfolk St. W 91-73 79%     3 - 2 +13.8 +14.4 -0.8
  Nov 26, 2024 94   Stanford W 78-71 46%     4 - 2 +12.4 +1.9 +10.1
  Dec 03, 2024 166   Hawaii W 78-72 77%     5 - 2 +2.6 -1.9 +4.0
  Dec 14, 2024 36   Georgia L 68-73 23%     5 - 3 +7.1 +1.1 +6.1
  Dec 16, 2024 103   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-74 38%     5 - 4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5
  Dec 19, 2024 361   Chicago St. W 74-51 97%     6 - 4 +5.4 -10.2 +13.8
  Dec 22, 2024 137   Saint Louis W 73-72 72%     7 - 4 -0.7 -3.0 +2.4
  Dec 28, 2024 316   San Diego W 81-68 89%    
  Dec 30, 2024 185   Bryant W 86-77 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 228   Southern Utah W 82-71 85%    
  Jan 09, 2025 145   @ Utah Valley W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 16, 2025 212   Abilene Christian W 79-69 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 285   Tarleton St. W 77-63 90%    
  Jan 23, 2025 228   @ Southern Utah W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 287   @ Utah Tech W 79-71 77%    
  Jan 30, 2025 143   Seattle W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 145   Utah Valley W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 158   @ California Baptist W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 13, 2025 285   @ Tarleton St. W 74-66 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 164   @ Texas Arlington W 81-79 56%    
  Feb 22, 2025 158   California Baptist W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 27, 2025 164   Texas Arlington W 84-76 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 143   @ Seattle W 74-73 52%    
  Mar 06, 2025 287   Utah Tech W 82-68 90%    
  Mar 08, 2025 212   @ Abilene Christian W 76-72 64%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 5.5 12.1 14.5 11.0 5.7 1.6 51.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.1 8.3 5.3 1.5 0.1 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.6 1.3 0.1 7.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.9 0.1 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.4 8.8 13.0 16.0 17.6 16.0 11.1 5.7 1.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
15-1 100.0% 5.7    5.7 0.0
14-2 99.0% 11.0    10.5 0.6 0.0
13-3 90.4% 14.5    11.7 2.7 0.1
12-4 68.7% 12.1    6.8 4.6 0.7 0.0
11-5 34.1% 5.5    1.6 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
10-6 7.8% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 51.4% 51.4 37.8 10.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.6% 62.5% 62.0% 0.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.6 1.3%
15-1 5.7% 60.1% 60.1% 12.0 0.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 2.3
14-2 11.1% 53.6% 53.6% 12.4 0.3 3.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 5.2
13-3 16.0% 48.8% 48.8% 12.7 0.1 2.8 4.1 0.8 0.0 8.2
12-4 17.6% 42.0% 42.0% 13.0 0.0 1.5 4.1 1.7 0.1 10.2
11-5 16.0% 34.8% 34.8% 13.3 0.6 2.9 1.9 0.2 10.4
10-6 13.0% 24.3% 24.3% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.8
9-7 8.8% 18.2% 18.2% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 7.2
8-8 5.4% 11.4% 11.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 4.8
7-9 2.8% 7.4% 7.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
6-10 1.3% 4.6% 4.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-11 0.5% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
4-12 0.2% 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 36.8% 36.8% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5 11.0 15.8 7.2 1.0 0.0 63.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 10.7 1.0 1.7 3.1 1.0 6.0 10.7 54.0 22.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 2.8% 11.0 0.7 1.4 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%