Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#90
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#96
Pace77.1#16
Improvement+0.6#167

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#155
First Shot-0.6#189
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#115
Layup/Dunks+1.2#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#178
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#300
Freethrows+2.3#57
Improvement-0.8#225

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#53
First Shot+3.7#70
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#67
Layups/Dunks+1.4#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#109
Freethrows+2.0#55
Improvement+1.5#109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.6% 63.4% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round48.6% 63.4% 0.0%
Second Round6.1% 7.9% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 28 - 6
Quad 416 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 351   Cal St. Fullerton W 89-79 97%     1 - 0 -6.0 +5.9 -12.5
  Nov 09, 2024 160   Western Kentucky W 74-72 79%     2 - 0 -0.8 -4.4 +3.4
  Nov 14, 2024 77   Arizona St. L 76-87 43%     2 - 1 -3.5 +2.2 -5.1
  Nov 20, 2024 238   UC Davis L 68-75 88%     2 - 2 -14.1 -8.3 -5.4
  Nov 22, 2024 190   Norfolk St. W 91-73 83%     3 - 2 +13.6 +13.3 +0.2
  Nov 26, 2024 81   Stanford W 78-71 46%     4 - 2 +13.8 +4.0 +9.4
  Dec 03, 2024 221   Hawaii W 78-72 86%     5 - 2 +0.0 -3.4 +2.9
  Dec 14, 2024 33   Georgia L 68-73 22%     5 - 3 +8.7 +1.8 +7.0
  Dec 16, 2024 119   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-74 51%     5 - 4 -2.5 -1.8 -1.1
  Dec 19, 2024 362   Chicago St. W 74-51 98%     6 - 4 +3.4 -12.7 +14.3
  Dec 22, 2024 100   Saint Louis W 73-72 66%     7 - 4 +2.7 +2.0 +0.7
  Dec 28, 2024 312   San Diego W 68-55 91%     8 - 4 +3.9 -14.1 +17.0
  Dec 30, 2024 149   Bryant W 112-66 77%     9 - 4 +43.9 +12.3 +20.8
  Jan 04, 2025 304   Southern Utah W 82-71 93%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +0.0 +3.0 -3.4
  Jan 09, 2025 114   @ Utah Valley L 64-72 48%     10 - 5 1 - 1 -1.8 -3.3 +1.4
  Jan 16, 2025 211   Abilene Christian W 88-58 85%     11 - 5 2 - 1 +24.4 +13.9 +9.6
  Jan 18, 2025 275   Tarleton St. W 88-64 91%     12 - 5 3 - 1 +14.9 +17.3 -2.1
  Jan 23, 2025 304   @ Southern Utah W 74-59 85%     13 - 5 4 - 1 +9.5 +0.6 +8.9
  Jan 25, 2025 293   @ Utah Tech W 79-66 84%     14 - 5 5 - 1 +8.1 +5.6 +2.9
  Jan 30, 2025 146   Seattle W 83-74 77%     15 - 5 6 - 1 +7.2 +6.4 +0.2
  Feb 01, 2025 114   Utah Valley W 75-57 69%     16 - 5 7 - 1 +18.7 +3.4 +14.9
  Feb 08, 2025 163   @ California Baptist L 71-85 62%     16 - 6 7 - 2 -11.4 -6.4 -3.6
  Feb 13, 2025 275   @ Tarleton St. W 64-60 81%     17 - 6 8 - 2 +0.4 -2.6 +3.1
  Feb 15, 2025 226   @ Texas Arlington W 82-75 73%     18 - 6 9 - 2 +6.3 +4.8 +1.3
  Feb 22, 2025 163   California Baptist W 66-64 79%     19 - 6 10 - 2 -0.9 -8.0 +7.1
  Feb 27, 2025 226   Texas Arlington W 85-71 87%     20 - 6 11 - 2 +7.8 +3.9 +3.3
  Mar 01, 2025 146   @ Seattle W 63-60 58%     21 - 6 12 - 2 +6.7 -3.5 +10.2
  Mar 06, 2025 293   Utah Tech W 90-68 93%     22 - 6 13 - 2 +11.6 +10.8 +0.7
  Mar 08, 2025 211   @ Abilene Christian L 81-82 OT 71%     22 - 7 13 - 3 -1.1 -0.5 -0.4
  Mar 12, 2025 226   Texas Arlington W 98-75 81%     23 - 7 +19.6 +18.3 +0.5
Projected Record 23 - 7 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0%
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 48.6% 48.6% 12.9 0.0 13.3 29.1 6.2 0.0 51.4
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 48.6% 48.6% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 13.3 29.1 6.2 0.0 51.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 48.6% 100.0% 12.9 0.1 27.4 59.8 12.7 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 28.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 23.4%