Grand Canyon
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.7 62
Results Rating +7.7 79
Pace 69.9 138
Improvement +2.3 96

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 141 C- B- C B- C+
Defense A- 25 A- B- B- C- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 77 C+ 60% 113 +3.1 80
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 179 D 34% 300 -1.0 236
Three Pointers 38% 245 D+ 32% 272 -2.8 277
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 136 C- -1.1 210
1st FG Attempt C- 1.01 198
Second Chance B- 33.3% 94 B- 1.08 102 B- 0.36 76
Turnovers C 16.9% 183
Freethrows B- 0.33 117 B 76% 59 B- 0.25 82
Total Offense C +0.9 141

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 257 C+ 9.8% 116
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 146 C+ 4.8% 169
Three Pointers C 84% 195 C+ 0.7% 133
Total C- 52% 248 C+ 5.4% 159

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 292 A- 50% 19 -5.0 42
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 39 C- 39% 233 +2.4 341
Three Pointers 39% 240 A 28% 8 -4.2 29
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.0 38 A- -5.8 17
1st FG Attempt A- 0.88 18
Second Chance B+ 25.7% 31 D+ 1.08 265 B- 0.28 79
Turnovers B- 18.1% 105
Freethrows C- 0.32 222 C- 73% 218 C- 0.23 225
Total Defense A- +7.8 25

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 80 B 15.3% 50
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 180 D+ 3.6% 258
Three Pointers B- 81% 96 C- 0.7% 210
Total B 49% 60 C+ 6.5% 110

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 231 16.8 105
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 129 0.15 115
Improvement +0.5 #156 +1.9 #87

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 81 64 52
Results Rating Rank 92 78 59
Conference Record 12 - 8 13 - 7 14 - 6
Conference Finish 5 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 11% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2% 3% 1%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round9% 10% 6%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UNLV (Home) - 79.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 23 - 5
Quad 24 - 37 - 8
Quad 33 - 311 - 11
Quad 410 - 121 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 261 Purdue Fort Wayne W 90 - 71 94% +15  98% 1 - 0 B +10 B- +4 A- B C- B +5 B+ D+ B
 Fri, Nov 7 198 Youngstown St. L 81 - 90 90% -3  29% 1 - 1 D- -14 C +0 D- A+ C F -14 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 323 Northern Illinois W 88 - 59 97% +17  95% 2 - 1 A- +16 B +6 C+ A+ F+ A +9 A F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 23 @Saint Louis L 64 - 78 16% -11  0% 2 - 2 B- +5 D -6 F+ D C A+ +12 A- A- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 275 Northwestern St. W 85 - 72 94% +8  97% 3 - 2 C+ +4 B +7 B- B- C C- -3 F+ A+ D
 Tue, Nov 25 99 Utah W 68 - 58 64% +6  95% 4 - 2 A- +15 D+ -4 F D+ A+ A+ +19 A+ D+ A
 Wed, Nov 26 26 Iowa L 46 - 59 25% -6  21% 4 - 3 C+ +3 F -15 C+ F F A+ +16 A+ C+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 326 Stetson W 67 - 45 97% +4  63% 5 - 3 B +8 F -13 F C F A+ +22 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 68 Oklahoma St. L 78 - 84 51% -2  23% 5 - 4 C+ +2 B- +5 D+ A A+ C- -3 F+ A- B
 Sat, Dec 13 236 Coastal Carolina W 82 - 61 92% +19  99% 6 - 4 B+ +14 B+ +9 D A+ A B+ +6 B B+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 100 @Wyoming W 82 - 70 53% +14  97% 7 - 4 1 - 0 A +20 B- +5 A+ D F A+ +14 A+ D+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 325 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 78 97% +8  95% 8 - 4 C -0 C +1 C A- C- C- -2 C F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 91 Colorado St. L 60 - 70 71% -10  1% 8 - 5 1 - 1 D+ -7 F -10 F B- C- B- +2 A- B+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 64 @Boise St. W 75 - 58 39% +7  83% 9 - 5 2 - 1 A+ +29 B +7 A- D+ D A+ +23 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 218 San Jose St. W 76 - 58 91% +14  97% 10 - 5 3 - 1 B+ +12 D -4 C+ C D A+ +16 B+ A A
 Tue, Jan 13 47 @New Mexico L 64 - 87 30% -9  0% 10 - 6 3 - 2 D -9 D- -7 F+ F+ A+ C -1 F+ A- C
 Sat, Jan 17 28 Utah St. W 84 - 74 38% +5  95% 11 - 6 4 - 2 A +22 A+ +18 A+ B+ A B +4 A+ D F+
 Wed, Jan 21 45 San Diego St. W 70 - 69 51% +2  64% 12 - 6 5 - 2 B +9 C +1 B- D- D A- +8 A+ B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 132 @Fresno St. W 68 - 57 64% +5  94% 13 - 6 6 - 2 A- +16 C +1 F A+ B A+ +16 A+ A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 27 78 @Nevada L 60 - 66 OT 43% +2  55% 13 - 7 6 - 3 C+ +5 F -13 F+ D+ F+ A+ +18 A+ B+ C-
 Fri, Jan 30 64 Boise St. W 86 - 69 62% +6  76% 14 - 7 7 - 3 A +23 A+ +17 A+ C+ B B+ +7 A+ D+ B-
 Tue, Feb 3 351 Air Force W 81 - 57 98% +21  99% 15 - 7 8 - 3 B- +7 C +1 B+ B C A- +7 A- F A
 Sat, Feb 7 118 @UNLV L 78 - 80 61% -7  11% 15 - 8 8 - 4 C+ +4 C +1 D D- B B- +3 A F+ C+
 Wed, Feb 11 47 New Mexico L 64 - 70 52% -8  11% 15 - 9 8 - 5 C+ +2 D -6 F+ B+ B- A- +8 C- A+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 218 @San Jose St. W 94 - 79 80% +6  72% 16 - 9 9 - 5 A- +15 A+ +24 A- A+ D F+ -8 D B- F
 Tue, Feb 17 45 @San Diego St. W 73 - 63 29% +4  75% 17 - 9 10 - 5 A+ +24 B +7 D+ A+ A- A+ +17 A+ D- B-
 Sat, Feb 21 100 Wyoming L 65 - 70 74% -2  13% 17 - 10 10 - 6 C- -3 F+ -8 F+ A F B+ +5 C+ A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 25 118 UNLV W 81 - 72 80%
 Sat, Feb 28 28 @Utah St. L 69 - 78 19%
 Tue, Mar 3 351 @Air Force W 77 - 58 96%
 Sat, Mar 7 132 Fresno St. W 76 - 66 82%
Totals 20 - 11 13 - 7 +9 C +1 B- C- C+ A- +8 D+ B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D D+ C- 42% 38% 38% C+ C- B- B- B- C B- B B- A- A- C- A A- 35% 26% 39% B+ A- B+ D+ B- B- C- C- C-
1.10 60% 34% 32% -1 0 1.01 33% 1.1 .36 17% .33 76% .25 0.97 50% 39% 28% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.1 .28 18% .32 73% .24
Nov
3		 Purdue Fort Wayne B- D A+ A+ B+ 48% 6% 46% A- A- F A+ B C- B+ C B+ B D+ D- A+ B 30% 23% 47% A B+ B+ F D+ B A F B-
1.20 54% 67% 48% +9 +3 1.26 25% 1.7 .43 20% .33 75% .25 0.95 61% 43% 25% -4 -1 0.92 16% 1.5 .24 17% .16 90% .14
Nov
7		 Youngstown St. C A+ F F F+ 53% 28% 19% C D- A+ B+ A+ C B- F+ C F B- D+ F+ C- 42% 10% 48% D D+ B F F F F F F
1.12 79% 20% 0% -4 0 0.94 44% 1.1 .50 18% .37 68% .25 1.24 55% 40% 39% +3 +2 1.10 26% 1.6 .42 12% .47 80% .38
Nov
10		 Northern Illinois B C+ F A+ B- 43% 16% 41% C C+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C A+ A A A+ A+ F A- 36% 25% 39% A A A F F A+ F F F
1.22 62% 13% 45% +4 +1 1.12 54% 1.4 .73 21% .33 95% .32 0.82 31% 18% 41% -11 -1 0.80 23% 1.6 .35 29% .41 81% .33
Nov
15		 Saint Louis D C- F F F 36% 20% 44% C+ F+ B F D C B- A+ A A+ C+ A+ D A- 46% 6% 48% C A- B A- A- A+ C F D+
0.86 50% 9% 25% -15 0 0.73 30% 0.5 .14 16% .35 86% .30 1.04 58% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 24% .30 82% .25
Nov
21		 Northwestern St. B A C+ C- B- 40% 17% 43% C+ B- A+ F B- C A+ B+ A+ C- F F B F 22% 38% 40% A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ D F A D
1.23 71% 43% 33% +5 +1 1.14 46% 0.9 .42 17% .68 77% .53 1.04 73% 53% 30% +6 -3 1.08 9% 1.0 .09 15% .41 67% .27
Nov
25		 Utah D+ A+ F F F 44% 36% 20% F+ F D C D+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ 50% 19% 31% D+ A+ A- F D+ A D+ A+ B-
1.01 73% 17% 0% -11 -2 0.76 24% 1.0 .24 9% .52 69% .36 0.86 48% 25% 31% -9 +1 0.86 26% 1.4 .35 21% .34 61% .21
Nov
26		 Iowa F D+ D- B C 46% 18% 36% B C+ F F F F F B+ F+ A+ A+ F A A+ 43% 13% 45% D+ A+ C B- C+ A F A D-
0.76 56% 29% 36% -2 +1 1.00 15% 0.0 .00 31% .22 78% .17 0.98 41% 80% 28% -6 +1 0.93 33% 1.0 .33 20% .45 68% .31
Dec
2		 Stetson F A+ B F F 28% 24% 48% D- F C C+ C F A+ D+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+ 43% 17% 40% F+ A+ B- A B+ A+ A A+ A+
1.01 77% 45% 18% -4 -1 0.91 32% 1.2 .38 21% .44 70% .31 0.68 50% 0% 26% -15 +1 0.74 24% 0.8 .18 26% .20 40% .08
Dec
6		 Oklahoma St. B- C+ C F D+ 40% 14% 46% C+ D+ B+ B+ A A+ D- F F C- F+ F C+ F 51% 24% 24% A F+ A+ C A- B F B- F
1.11 57% 38% 27% -6 +1 0.93 35% 1.2 .43 13% .21 62% .13 1.20 68% 58% 33% +10 0 1.22 23% 1.0 .23 17% .48 71% .34
Dec
13		 Coastal Carolina B+ D- F C+ D 33% 26% 40% B- D A+ C- A+ A B- A+ A- B+ C+ B+ B B 33% 33% 34% C+ B B- A+ B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.21 47% 27% 35% -6 -1 0.88 47% 1.0 .47 7% .32 85% .27 0.90 53% 32% 30% -6 -2 0.86 23% 0.7 .16 6% .13 50% .06
Dec
20		 Wyoming B- A+ A+ A- A+ 52% 5% 43% A A+ F+ B- D F A+ B- A+ A+ C+ D- A+ A+ 38% 15% 47% B- A+ A F D+ C F C F
1.12 73% 50% 39% +11 +3 1.31 18% 1.0 .18 22% .61 71% .44 0.95 55% 50% 12% -15 +1 0.74 28% 1.4 .38 16% .49 77% .37
Dec
22		 IU Indianapolis C D+ A+ A+ C 54% 17% 29% C C B+ B- A- C- A+ A+ A+ C- F F B+ D 13% 35% 52% A+ C D+ F F A- F+ A+ D+
1.21 58% 50% 43% +6 +2 1.17 43% 1.3 .54 20% .50 87% .43 1.04 86% 47% 29% +3 -4 1.00 30% 1.7 .52 20% .25 60% .15
Jan
3		 Colorado St. F F+ C+ F F 33% 20% 47% C F C A- B- C- D F D- B- C- A+ C+ A 36% 11% 52% D+ A- F A+ B+ B F A+ F
0.96 50% 40% 22% -11 0 0.80 28% 1.3 .36 16% .25 62% .15 1.12 63% 20% 35% 0 +1 1.05 41% 0.7 .28 21% .50 68% .34
Jan
7		 Boise St. B B- A+ D+ B 52% 13% 35% A+ A- A F D+ D D- B+ D+ A+ B B+ A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A F D+ F
1.11 61% 71% 32% +4 +2 1.15 32% 0.6 .19 18% .22 75% .16 0.86 54% 31% 24% -10 -2 0.79 20% 0.7 .14 21% .46 80% .37
Jan
10		 San Jose St. D A+ F D- C+ 35% 8% 56% B- C+ C- C+ C D B A A- A+ C+ A C+ B+ 29% 31% 40% C+ B+ A+ B- A A F A+ D-
1.09 82% 25% 30% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.2 .41 20% .32 83% .27 0.83 54% 29% 33% -5 -2 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 20% .39 64% .25
Jan
13		 New Mexico D- C- F F F+ 28% 31% 41% D F+ F+ F F+ A+ D A+ C C B- F F F 45% 24% 31% A- F+ A+ C A- C F C F
0.87 56% 28% 25% -9 -2 0.79 20% 0.8 .15 12% .23 87% .20 1.19 55% 58% 53% +12 0 1.27 22% 1.0 .22 15% .45 75% .34
Jan
17		 Utah St. A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 18% 39% B+ A+ A- C+ B+ A A+ D+ A+ B A+ F A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% A+ A+ F A- D F+ F+ D+ F+
1.28 63% 50% 41% +9 +1 1.20 38% 1.0 .38 17% .60 70% .42 1.12 33% 62% 24% -9 -1 0.83 47% 1.0 .49 11% .39 74% .29
Jan
21		 San Diego St. C F F A+ C+ 40% 18% 42% B B- C- F D- D A+ A- A+ A- A- F+ A+ A+ 35% 37% 28% A- A+ B B B+ D- C F D+
0.99 39% 13% 47% -4 0 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 24% .52 79% .41 0.98 53% 45% 13% -8 -2 0.81 29% 1.0 .29 14% .31 84% .26
Jan
24		 Fresno St. C C+ D F F 36% 20% 44% C F A+ A- A+ B A+ B- A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ 29% 27% 44% A A+ A A+ A+ C+ F C- F
1.03 63% 33% 10% -15 0 0.71 41% 1.2 .51 17% .45 76% .34 0.86 43% 38% 19% -14 -1 0.71 23% 0.4 .10 18% .48 77% .37
Jan
27		 Nevada F F A+ F F+ 34% 24% 42% D+ F+ D B- D+ F+ D- D- F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 38% 34% 29% B+ A+ A C- B+ C- D+ A+ B-
0.83 41% 58% 19% -10 -1 0.80 22% 1.3 .27 21% .26 67% .17 0.91 38% 16% 38% -14 -2 0.71 27% 1.1 .29 12% .41 65% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30		 Boise St. A+ A F A+ A+ 48% 22% 30% B+ A+ F A+ C+ B A+ A+ A+ B+ A- A+ A- A+ 49% 7% 44% F+ A+ B F D+ B- F B- F
1.30 68% 30% 64% +17 +1 1.37 10% 2.5 .25 14% .40 83% .33 1.04 50% 0% 30% -9 +3 0.89 29% 1.3 .38 17% .45 76% .34
Feb
3		 Air Force C A C+ C B 48% 13% 38% A B+ B C+ B C B F D- A- A+ F A A 40% 19% 40% B- A- C+ F F A B+ F D+
1.18 72% 43% 35% +8 +2 1.21 34% 1.1 .38 15% .36 48% .17 0.83 37% 56% 26% -10 0 0.83 22% 1.6 .34 26% .24 92% .22
Feb
7		 UNLV C F+ F+ C+ D- 41% 22% 37% C D C F D- B A+ B- A+ B- A- C B- B+ 27% 37% 35% A+ A D+ F F+ C+ B F D-
1.09 47% 30% 35% -5 0 0.91 30% 0.8 .25 15% .58 74% .43 1.11 50% 42% 33% -1 -3 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 17% .32 95% .30
Feb
11		 New Mexico D D B F F 33% 22% 45% C+ F+ B- A B+ B- B B+ B+ A- A+ D+ F D- 35% 30% 35% A+ C- A+ A A+ A D+ B- C-
0.93 53% 45% 17% -11 0 0.78 31% 1.2 .36 18% .32 78% .25 1.02 44% 43% 56% +8 -2 1.15 20% 0.8 .17 20% .33 72% .24
Feb
14		 San Jose St. A+ A+ A+ F A 38% 26% 36% D A- A+ A+ A+ D A A+ A+ F+ C- F D+ F+ 26% 34% 40% B+ D A+ F B- F F F F
1.45 83% 67% 24% +11 -1 1.23 54% 1.6 .88 20% .37 84% .31 1.22 58% 50% 37% +6 -3 1.09 21% 1.5 .31 11% .40 83% .33
Feb
17		 San Diego St. B C- D- D- D+ 40% 31% 29% D+ D+ C A+ A+ A- A B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 38% 28% A- A+ C+ F D- B- C F D
1.02 53% 27% 29% -8 -1 0.83 27% 1.8 .48 18% .39 78% .31 0.88 44% 25% 20% -15 -3 0.66 31% 1.4 .44 18% .31 89% .27
Feb
21		 Wyoming F+ F F B- F 47% 17% 36% C F+ C+ A+ A F D+ B C B+ B- F B+ C+ 34% 12% 54% B- C+ B+ A+ A+ D+ C B- C+
0.96 41% 25% 35% -10 +1 0.85 28% 1.4 .39 22% .36 74% .27 1.04 53% 83% 30% 0 +1 1.04 32% 0.5 .16 15% .33 74% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.3 1st
2nd 1.1 5.5 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.6 19.9 6.1 26.5 3rd
4th 0.3 13.6 32.4 0.6 46.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.9 12.5 3.0 18.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 4.3 26.7 56.3 12.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 2.5% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 12.5% 21.2% 12.8% 8.4% 10.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 0.1 9.8 9.6%
13-7 56.3% 9.8% 8.2% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.7 4.3 0.6 50.8 1.8%
12-8 26.7% 5.9% 5.6% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.3 25.2 0.3%
11-9 4.3% 4.8% 4.7% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.1 0.1%
10-10 0.2% 0.2
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.0% 7.9% 2.0% 10.9 90.0 2.2%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 10.1 2.9 19.6 39.9 37.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 21.8% 10.8 0.8 3.6 17.2 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.3% 9.8% 11.0 0.8 8.3 0.7