Grand Canyon
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.6 #65
Expected Predictive Rating +9.0 #68
Pace 70.0 #149
Improvement +4.5 #23

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #132 C C+ C B- C+
Defense #22 A- B- C+ C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #78 1.21 #114 +3.2 #75
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #203 0.65 #328 -1.6 #260
Three Pointers 39% #235 0.97 #241 -2.1 #255
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #189 -0.5 #189
Freethrows 0.32 #108 77% #47 0.25 #76
Second Chance 33.6% #96 0.99 #226 0.33 #129
Turnovers 16.6% #168
Total Offense +1.2 #132

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #271 1.02 #33 +4.2 #53
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #46 0.75 #172 -1.8 #316
Three Pointers 39% #250 0.82 #5 +4.9 #15
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #15 +7.3 #15
Freethrows 0.33 #279 70% #82 0.23 #240
Second Chance 24.9% #20 1.10 #286 0.27 #81
Turnovers 17.8% #111
Total Defense +7.5 #22

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #125 -1.7% #50
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.8% #207 -12.7% #14
Possession Length 17.8 #236 16.8 #111
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #161 0.16 #135
Improvement +1.3 #111 +3.3 #33

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.2% 15.3% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.2% 6.3% 0.8%
Average Seed 10.7 10.7 10.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.2%
Conference Champion 11.6% 11.7% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.2% 4.3% 0.8%
First Round12.8% 12.9% 5.1%
Second Round3.4% 3.4% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.8%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 98.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 6
Quad 25 - 27 - 8
Quad 35 - 212 - 10
Quad 410 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 216 Purdue Fort Wayne W 90 - 71 91% +15  1 - 0 +13 +8 A- B- C +3 B+ C B
 Fri, Nov 7 225 Youngstown St. L 81 - 90 92% -3  1 - 1 -16 +3 D- A+ C+ -18 D F+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 308 Northern Illinois W 88 - 59 96% +17  2 - 1 +17 +9 C+ A+ F+ +8 A D- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 24 @Saint Louis L 64 - 78 16% -11  2 - 2 +5 -3 D- D C +9 A- B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 270 Northwestern St. W 85 - 72 94% +8  3 - 2 +4 +8 C C+ C -4 D A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 25 104 Utah W 68 - 58 66% +6  4 - 2 +14 -3 F D A+ +17 A+ D A+
 Wed, Nov 26 21 Iowa L 46 - 59 22% -6  4 - 3 +4 -11 C+ F F +13 A+ C+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 329 Stetson W 67 - 45 97% +4  5 - 3 +9 -9 F C+ F +18 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 6 56 Oklahoma St. L 78 - 84 46% -2  5 - 4 +4 +8 D+ A A+ -5 D- A B
 Sat, Dec 13 239 Coastal Carolina W 82 - 61 92% +19  6 - 4 +14 +10 D A+ A +4 B B+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 111 @Wyoming W 82 - 70 58% +14  7 - 4 1 - 0 +19 +8 A+ D+ F +10 A+ C- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 340 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 78 97% +8  8 - 4 -2 +3 C B C- -5 C F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 103 Colorado St. L 60 - 70 75% -10  8 - 5 1 - 1 -8 -8 F C+ C -2 A- B+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 62 @Boise St. W 75 - 58 38% +7  9 - 5 2 - 1 +29 +11 A- C- C- +19 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 242 San Jose St. W 76 - 58 93% +14  10 - 5 3 - 1 +10 -3 C C D +13 B+ A A
 Tue, Jan 13 45 @New Mexico L 64 - 87 28% -9  10 - 6 3 - 2 -8 -4 D- F+ A+ -4 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 38 Utah St. W 84 - 74 43% +5  11 - 6 4 - 2 +21 +21 A+ B A+ +0 A+ C- F+
 Wed, Jan 21 43 San Diego St. W 70 - 69 49% +2  12 - 6 5 - 2 +10 +4 C+ D+ D +6 A+ B D
 Sat, Jan 24 146 @Fresno St. W 68 - 57 68% +5  13 - 6 6 - 2 +15 +4 F A+ B +11 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 71 @Nevada L 60 - 66 OT 41% +2  13 - 7 6 - 3 +5 -10 F+ D+ F+ +16 A+ B C
 Fri, Jan 30 62 Boise St. W 86 - 69 61% +6  14 - 7 7 - 3 +23 +21 A+ C+ B+ +3 A+ C- B-
 Tue, Feb 3 350 Air Force W 78 - 54 99%
 Sat, Feb 7 128 @UNLV W 77 - 73 64%
 Wed, Feb 11 45 New Mexico W 75 - 74 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 242 @San Jose St. W 75 - 65 83%
 Tue, Feb 17 43 @San Diego St. L 67 - 73 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 111 Wyoming W 75 - 67 78%
 Wed, Feb 25 128 UNLV W 80 - 70 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 38 @Utah St. L 69 - 77 23%
 Tue, Mar 3 350 @Air Force W 75 - 57 95%
 Sat, Mar 7 146 Fresno St. W 76 - 65 84%
Totals 21 - 10 14 - 6 +9 +1 C C+ C +7 A- B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.6 6.4 1.5 11.6 1st
2nd 0.1 4.5 12.5 2.5 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.6 14.6 6.1 0.0 24.4 3rd
4th 0.3 3.5 12.5 9.4 0.3 26.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 6.8 6.3 0.7 16.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 0.6 3.7 11.0 22.5 29.3 22.5 8.8 1.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 1.5    1.3 0.2
16-4 71.9% 6.4    2.3 3.3 0.8 0.0
15-5 16.1% 3.6    0.3 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.0
14-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.6% 11.6 3.8 4.4 2.6 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.5% 62.0% 19.5% 42.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 52.8%
16-4 8.8% 36.7% 16.9% 19.8% 10.4 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 0.0 5.6 23.8%
15-5 22.5% 21.6% 13.4% 8.2% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.5 0.1 17.6 9.5%
14-6 29.3% 12.6% 9.1% 3.5% 10.9 0.0 0.5 3.0 0.2 25.6 3.8%
13-7 22.5% 8.2% 6.8% 1.3% 11.1 0.1 1.6 0.2 20.7 1.4%
12-8 11.0% 4.6% 4.3% 0.4% 11.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 10.5 0.4%
11-9 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 0.3% 11.4 0.1 0.1 3.6 0.3%
10-10 0.6% 0.6
9-11 0.2% 0.2
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.2% 9.6% 5.6% 10.7 84.8 6.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 7.6 7.0 5.3 24.6 42.1 21.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 70.6% 9.3 13.7 27.5 21.6 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 52.0% 10.0 1.6 0.8 8.1 26.0 15.4