Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.7 103
Results Rating +2.9 118
Pace 67.0 230
Improvement -2.9 290

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 143 B- C- C D+ C-
Defense B- 68 B- B C C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 272 B+ 66% 39 +1.0 138
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 214 C 38% 180 +0.0 180
Three Pointers 44% 131 C+ 35% 149 +1.8 122
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 221 B- +2.9 85
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 90
Second Chance D+ 27.7% 258 B- 1.08 101 C- 0.30 205
Turnovers C 16.6% 164
Freethrows D+ 0.28 257 C- 70% 249 D+ 0.20 269
Total Offense C +0.8 143

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 41% 296 B- 9.6% 111
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 151 C 5.2% 196
Three Pointers B- 88% 97 D 1.6% 325
Total C- 54% 213 C+ 5.2% 132

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 227 C 58% 178 -0.9 138
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 20 B 34% 58 +1.9 326
Three Pointers 34% 340 B- 32% 87 -4.4 26
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.1 31 B- -2.2 97
1st FG Attempt B- 0.95 70
Second Chance B 26.3% 46 C+ 0.99 114 B 0.26 53
Turnovers C 16.5% 197
Freethrows C+ 0.30 163 B 69% 43 C+ 0.21 123
Total Defense B- +3.9 68

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 187 C- 9.4% 236
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 113 D 2.2% 321
Three Pointers C+ 82% 116 D+ 0.5% 275
Total B- 51% 92 D+ 4.3% 292

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 268 16.8 82
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 309 0.16 131
Improvement -2.8 #311 -0.1 #194

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 114 103 90
Results Rating Rank 148 119 97
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11% 14% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.2 12.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round11% 14% 10%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 34.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 7
Quad 37 - 511 - 11
Quad 49 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 209 @Ohio L 68 - 72 66% -2  21% 0 - 1 C- -4 D- -8 D+ F C+ B +4 D A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 171 Cornell W 76 - 65 79% +4  72% 1 - 1 B- +7 F -10 D C F A+ +17 A+ B D
 Fri, Nov 14 56 USC L 67 - 87 31% -12  3% 1 - 2 D -10 C- -1 D C+ B F+ -9 D+ C F
 Sun, Nov 16 263 @Long Beach St. W 82 - 80 76% +4  88% 2 - 2 C -1 B+ +8 C- F A+ F+ -9 F+ C F
 Sun, Nov 23 236 Coastal Carolina W 94 - 42 86% +29  91% 3 - 2 A+ +45 A +13 A+ C- A A+ +29 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 174 Charlotte W 79 - 69 71% +8  96% 4 - 2 B +9 B +6 B C+ A B +4 D- A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 175 Furman W 72 - 65 71% +4  81% 5 - 2 B- +6 C +1 C+ B C- B+ +6 C- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 279 Eastern Kentucky W 89 - 78 90% +9  96% 6 - 2 C +1 B- +4 B+ A D+ C- -3 C- C- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 347 Chicago St. W 95 - 53 96% +30  99% 7 - 2 A+ +26 A+ +16 A B+ B- A+ +12 A+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 28 Utah St. L 78 - 83 17% -6  7% 7 - 3 B +10 A +12 A+ A+ F C- -2 D F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 125 @Southern Illinois W 75 - 68 47% -0  35% 8 - 3 1 - 0 B+ +13 B +7 B A C+ B+ +5 C D- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 213 Indiana St. W 85 - 65 84% +15  84% 9 - 3 2 - 0 B+ +14 B+ +9 A- F+ A+ B+ +5 C+ A+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 193 @Drake W 73 - 56 64% +8  79% 10 - 3 3 - 0 A +18 C +1 A+ F F A+ +18 A+ B C-
 Thu, Jan 1 295 Evansville W 73 - 47 92% +14  84% 11 - 3 4 - 0 A- +15 D- -8 C- F A A+ +23 A+ A A+
 Wed, Jan 7 151 @Valparaiso L 71 - 77 55% -5  3% 11 - 4 4 - 1 C- -3 B- +4 D+ B A- D- -7 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 109 Illinois-Chicago L 59 - 63 OT 65% -1  13% 11 - 5 4 - 2 C- -3 F -14 F C- B+ A +10 A+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 14 213 @Indiana St. L 89 - 94 67% -6  7% 11 - 6 4 - 3 D+ -5 A+ +15 A B B+ F -20 F A F
 Sat, Jan 17 112 Bradley W 88 - 62 67% +13  89% 12 - 6 5 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +17 A A- A+ A +10 A+ B+ A-
 Wed, Jan 21 94 Northern Iowa W 59 - 54 57% +5  76% 13 - 6 6 - 3 B- +8 D -6 D+ B+ F A+ +14 A+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 24 67 @Belmont L 69 - 80 26% -6  11% 13 - 7 6 - 4 C +0 D+ -3 F+ A- D B +4 D- A B-
 Wed, Jan 28 123 @Murray St. W 70 - 65 46% +3  75% 14 - 7 7 - 4 B +11 D -4 C+ C D+ A+ +15 A+ B+ F+
 Tue, Feb 3 125 Southern Illinois L 50 - 54 69% -1  28% 14 - 8 7 - 5 C- -4 F -19 F F+ B- A+ +15 B+ A+ A
 Fri, Feb 6 193 Drake W 86 - 76 82% +12  99% 15 - 8 8 - 5 B- +5 B- +5 B+ C+ C+ C +0 B- C+ C
 Mon, Feb 9 295 @Evansville L 80 - 88 82% -9  15% 15 - 9 8 - 6 D- -13 B+ +8 A- F A+ F -21 F B- F
 Thu, Feb 12 151 Valparaiso W 86 - 64 76% +4  56% 16 - 9 9 - 6 A +19 A +12 A+ C B+ A- +8 A+ D D-
 Sun, Feb 15 109 @Illinois-Chicago L 56 - 83 42% -13  12% 16 - 10 9 - 7 F -20 F -16 F+ F D- C- -3 F+ D D+
 Wed, Feb 18 123 Murray St. W 78 - 61 69% +9  76% 17 - 10 10 - 7 A- +17 B +6 A+ B F A+ +13 A+ D- B
 Sat, Feb 21 112 @Bradley L 60 - 74 44% -9  5% 17 - 11 10 - 8 D+ -8 D- -7 B- F F C- -2 D+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 25 94 @Northern Iowa L 61 - 65 35%
 Sun, Mar 1 67 Belmont L 76 - 77 47%
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 9 +5 C +1 F B- C- B- +4 C+ C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B+ C C+ B- 36% 35% 44% C- B- D+ B- C- C D+ C- D+ B- C B B- B- 37% 29% 34% B+ B- B C+ B C C+ B C+
1.10 66% 38% 35% +3 0 1.08 28% 1.1 .30 17% .28 70% .20 1.03 58% 34% 32% -2 -1 0.95 26% 1.0 .26 17% .30 69% .20
Nov
6		 Ohio D- D+ A+ F D+ 44% 18% 38% C+ D+ F D- F C+ F F F B D- B+ A+ C- 70% 16% 14% F D A+ A A+ F F A+ D+
0.97 54% 50% 29% -3 +1 0.98 23% 0.9 .21 16% .19 55% .10 1.03 66% 38% 14% +1 +3 1.10 16% 0.8 .13 11% .44 56% .24
Nov
9		 Cornell F C+ F B+ D+ 33% 29% 38% F D C C- C F A+ F A- A+ C A+ A+ A+ 28% 17% 55% A A+ A F+ B D F B- F
1.05 63% 29% 39% +1 -1 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 19% .56 52% .29 0.90 60% 22% 17% -16 0 0.70 23% 1.3 .30 15% .39 71% .28
Nov
14		 USC C- F+ A+ F D- 33% 18% 49% C D A+ F C+ B F+ A+ C- F+ F F A- D+ 42% 24% 34% C D+ B+ F+ C F F A- D-
0.97 44% 60% 22% -9 0 0.84 40% 0.7 .28 16% .22 92% .21 1.26 71% 50% 29% +6 0 1.14 31% 1.2 .38 6% .54 66% .35
Nov
16		 Long Beach St. B+ B B+ F C- 43% 24% 33% C- C- F A- F A+ A+ B+ A+ F+ F+ B F F 29% 35% 36% B F+ C- B- C F C- A+ B+
1.21 65% 45% 27% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.4 .23 9% .63 79% .50 1.18 69% 32% 45% +7 -2 1.11 28% 1.0 .28 9% .29 56% .16
Nov
23		 Coastal Carolina A C- A- A+ A+ 25% 34% 41% D A+ F+ A+ C- A B- B+ B A+ B C A+ A+ 17% 40% 43% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+
1.26 53% 48% 48% +11 -3 1.18 19% 1.3 .26 8% .32 77% .25 0.56 50% 38% 12% -16 -4 0.62 13% 0.3 .04 13% .08 60% .05
Nov
27		 Charlotte B C A+ C+ B 41% 15% 43% B B C B C+ A A+ D+ A+ B C- A F F 36% 25% 39% A D- B+ A+ A+ B F A+ D
1.20 58% 57% 35% +3 +1 1.11 30% 1.2 .37 11% .53 68% .36 1.05 63% 27% 53% +10 -1 1.20 29% 0.3 .09 21% .44 61% .27
Nov
28		 Furman C A+ B- D+ B 20% 37% 43% F C+ D+ A+ B C- A- D- B B+ B C F+ C- 39% 14% 47% C C- A+ A+ A+ C A A+ A+
1.08 70% 42% 32% +2 -3 1.00 27% 1.3 .36 15% .32 67% .21 0.97 55% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.7 .13 19% .20 55% .11
Dec
3		 Eastern Kentucky B- D+ A+ A+ B 41% 16% 43% B- B+ D A+ A D+ C A- B- C- C B D- D+ 18% 30% 52% A- C- B F C- C+ F A- F
1.25 57% 63% 45% +11 +1 1.25 29% 1.6 .46 17% .34 80% .27 1.10 56% 33% 38% +2 -3 1.00 28% 1.3 .36 18% .40 65% .26
Dec
6		 Chicago St. A+ A+ F A- A 34% 4% 62% B- A A+ F B+ B- F+ F F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 24% 41% 35% A- A+ F+ C D A+ D+ F F
1.42 89% 0% 39% +14 +2 1.34 55% 0.9 .47 18% .27 53% .15 0.79 50% 15% 24% -17 -4 0.61 34% 0.9 .32 22% .29 93% .27
Dec
13		 Utah St. A A+ B+ D+ A+ 39% 32% 30% D+ A+ B- A+ A+ F C A+ B C- D- A+ F D 54% 13% 33% D+ D F A+ F A+ B- F C
1.17 88% 43% 31% +12 -1 1.23 33% 1.7 .57 25% .32 81% .26 1.24 69% 17% 44% +8 +2 1.23 63% 0.8 .53 24% .29 80% .24
Dec
18		 Southern Illinois B A+ A F B 35% 19% 46% C B B A+ A C+ B- F F B+ A- F A+ D+ 33% 44% 23% A+ C C F D- A+ F A+ D+
1.07 72% 50% 25% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.3 .44 19% .32 39% .12 0.97 50% 62% 18% +2 -3 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 23% .41 55% .22
Dec
21		 Indiana St. B+ A+ C+ F A 42% 32% 26% D A- F D F+ A+ C- A C+ B+ C A+ D+ C+ 41% 7% 52% C C+ A+ F A+ D F A F
1.25 79% 44% 27% +8 -1 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 6% .23 80% .19 0.96 61% 0% 35% -1 +2 1.05 6% 1.5 .10 16% .47 59% .28
Dec
29		 Drake C A+ D- A+ A+ 25% 18% 58% C A+ D- F F F D+ D+ D+ A+ B- A- A+ A+ 26% 30% 44% A A+ A F B C- C- A+ B-
1.10 100% 29% 57% +28 -1 1.58 24% 0.5 .12 35% .28 67% .19 0.85 54% 33% 23% -10 -2 0.78 18% 1.3 .23 14% .32 61% .19
Jan
1		 Evansville D- B- B- D D+ 36% 23% 42% C C- F A- F A B- F C- A+ A- A+ B- A+ 21% 38% 40% A+ A+ C A+ A A+ C B- C+
1.02 63% 42% 32% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.2 .18 13% .30 63% .19 0.66 50% 17% 32% -11 -4 0.72 22% 0.6 .14 32% .27 69% .19
Jan
7		 Valparaiso B- A F F+ C- 41% 31% 27% D D+ A D+ B A- A+ F B D- C+ D- F F 30% 38% 32% B+ F A+ A+ A+ B- F D- F
1.10 71% 19% 29% -3 -1 0.94 41% 0.8 .34 14% .41 61% .25 1.19 55% 43% 75% +21 -3 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 17% .65 74% .48
Jan
10		 Illinois-Chicago F F F F F 26% 15% 58% C- F D+ C+ C- B+ A B- A A A+ C A+ A+ 40% 40% 19% A+ A+ B- F F A- A+ F B+
0.85 43% 13% 19% -21 0 0.60 32% 1.0 .32 17% .38 77% .30 0.91 43% 38% 10% -13 -2 0.71 33% 1.7 .56 22% .20 91% .18
Jan
14		 Indiana St. A+ B+ A A+ A+ 33% 29% 37% D- A F+ A+ B B+ A+ B A+ F F D+ F F 46% 14% 40% B- F D+ A+ A F F D- F
1.29 65% 53% 42% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.6 .38 12% .39 75% .30 1.37 83% 43% 40% +16 +1 1.36 28% 0.5 .14 9% .48 73% .35
Jan
17		 Bradley A+ A+ F A+ A 37% 26% 37% B- A A C+ A- A+ F B F A A+ B+ B+ A+ 43% 30% 28% C+ A+ D+ A+ B+ A- F C F
1.32 75% 29% 45% +10 -1 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 12% .22 77% .17 0.93 40% 29% 31% -12 -1 0.77 29% 0.8 .22 18% .42 74% .31
Jan
21		 Northern Iowa D D C D- D+ 20% 20% 61% D- D+ B+ B B+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% A+ A+ B F+ C C- C F D+
0.91 50% 38% 28% -7 -1 0.85 31% 1.0 .31 26% .38 89% .34 0.84 41% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.67 18% 1.3 .23 14% .25 79% .20
Jan
24		 Belmont D+ C- F F F+ 28% 19% 53% C F+ B- A A- D A A+ A+ B F+ F+ F F 38% 31% 31% A+ D- A+ F A B- F+ A D+
0.99 54% 22% 28% -9 -1 0.83 35% 1.2 .43 20% .36 85% .31 1.15 72% 47% 53% +17 -1 1.33 12% 2.0 .23 20% .38 62% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Murray St. D D- A+ A- C+ 50% 20% 30% B C+ F A+ C D+ D F F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 46% 19% 35% C- A+ A+ F B+ F+ B+ F C+
1.02 48% 50% 40% 0 +1 1.04 19% 1.8 .34 17% .25 57% .14 0.94 56% 20% 16% -14 +1 0.76 18% 1.6 .29 12% .28 88% .25
Feb
3		 Southern Illinois F F+ F F F 28% 37% 35% F F F D- F+ B- F F F A+ D D+ A+ B 38% 40% 22% A B+ A+ A+ A+ A C+ D- C-
0.74 47% 25% 26% -12 -3 0.72 19% 0.9 .17 18% .18 60% .11 0.79 65% 44% 10% -3 -3 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 22% .28 73% .21
Feb
6		 Drake B- A F A+ B+ 31% 20% 49% C+ B+ D+ A- C+ C+ B F C- C B+ D- B- B- 33% 31% 35% A- B- D+ A C+ C C- C C-
1.20 71% 18% 44% +8 0 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 14% .34 57% .19 1.06 50% 47% 32% -1 -2 0.96 29% 0.9 .26 14% .32 70% .23
Feb
9		 Evansville B+ A+ F A A- 29% 20% 52% C A- F F F A+ D D+ D F B+ F+ F F 30% 30% 40% B- F A+ F B- F D F F
1.21 81% 27% 41% +10 -1 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 11% .24 71% .17 1.33 53% 47% 65% +20 -2 1.38 8% 2.5 .21 11% .32 84% .27
Feb
12		 Valparaiso A B A+ B+ A 44% 10% 46% A- A+ D+ B C B+ C- A+ A A- B- A+ B A+ 26% 51% 23% A+ A+ B F D D- A+ C- A
1.26 65% 60% 38% +8 +2 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 15% .29 100% .29 0.94 53% 21% 31% -11 -5 0.70 28% 1.4 .40 12% .23 71% .17
Feb
15		 Illinois-Chicago F D- A F F+ 22% 17% 61% D+ F+ F A+ F D- F A F C- F F A F 48% 33% 19% B F+ D C- D D+ A+ A+ A+
0.77 50% 44% 24% -10 -1 0.81 14% 1.4 .20 23% .11 83% .09 1.14 68% 47% 27% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 16% .13 50% .07
Feb
18		 Murray St. B A+ B A A+ 48% 14% 38% A- A+ A+ F B F D- F F A+ C- A A+ A+ 37% 29% 35% A A+ C F D- B A- A+ A+
1.20 71% 43% 42% +11 +2 1.28 50% 0.8 .40 26% .23 45% .10 0.94 61% 29% 18% -10 -1 0.80 32% 1.4 .44 18% .26 57% .15
Feb
21		 Bradley D- A+ F B+ B- 31% 27% 43% C B- F+ F F F F A F C- F F+ A+ D 40% 31% 29% B- D+ D- A+ B- F B A- B+
0.93 73% 23% 38% +3 -1 1.06 23% 0.0 .00 23% .20 80% .16 1.15 86% 44% 13% +4 -1 1.08 31% 0.8 .25 9% .28 69% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 7.9 7.9 3rd
4th 2.0 9.1 11.2 4th
5th 15.7 15.7 5th
6th 3.6 21.5 25.1 6th
7th 31.5 8.6 40.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 35.1 47.8 17.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 17.0% 16.1% 16.1% 12.1 0.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 14.3
11-9 47.8% 11.4% 11.4% 12.4 0.1 3.2 2.1 0.1 42.4
10-10 35.1% 8.3% 8.3% 12.6 0.0 1.2 1.5 0.1 32.2
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 12.4 88.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 12.1 6.8 80.1 13.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.7%
Lose Out 8.1%