Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.4 #87
Expected Predictive Rating +4.7 #94
Pace 66.4 #245
Improvement +1.1 #141

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #113 B- C C C C-
Defense #66 B B C C B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 1.29 #52 +0.9 #143
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #165 0.78 #135 +0.5 #153
Three Pointers 43% #144 1.03 #158 +1.4 #127
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #94 +2.8 #96
Freethrows 0.30 #190 70% #251 0.21 #212
Second Chance 29.3% #226 1.12 #69 0.33 #138
Turnovers 16.2% #148
Total Offense +2.2 #113

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #243 1.13 #137 +1.8 #115
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #25 0.66 #36 -1.3 #288
Three Pointers 36% #315 0.97 #114 +3.4 #55
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #61 +3.8 #62
Freethrows 0.31 #218 69% #34 0.21 #170
Second Chance 25.6% #28 0.98 #106 0.25 #41
Turnovers 16.9% #166
Total Defense +4.3 #66

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #227 -2.1% #31
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.1% #76 -5.5% #78
Possession Length 18.1 #268 16.9 #121
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #324 0.14 #92
Improvement -1.0 #239 +2.1 #69

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.2% 25.3% 20.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 99.5% 96.0%
Conference Champion 15.2% 18.2% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round24.2% 25.3% 20.0%
Second Round3.6% 3.8% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 77.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 33 - 5
Quad 310 - 513 - 10
Quad 48 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 199 @Ohio L 68 - 72 72% -2  0 - 1 -4 -5 C- F C+ +1 D A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 176 Cornell W 76 - 65 84% +4  1 - 1 +7 -8 D- C- F +15 A+ B- D
 Fri, Nov 14 48 USC L 67 - 87 32% -12  1 - 2 -9 +2 D C+ C+ -11 C- C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 255 @Long Beach St. W 82 - 80 80% +4  2 - 2 -0 +10 C F+ A+ -10 D- C F
 Sun, Nov 23 239 Coastal Carolina W 94 - 42 90% +29  3 - 2 +45 +13 A+ C- A- +28 A+ A+ C-
 Thu, Nov 27 157 Charlotte W 79 - 69 73% +8  4 - 2 +10 +8 B C+ A +2 D A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 164 Furman W 72 - 65 74% +4  5 - 2 +7 +2 C C+ C +5 C A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 265 Eastern Kentucky W 89 - 78 92% +9  6 - 2 +2 +7 B+ A- D+ -5 C- C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 355 Chicago St. W 95 - 53 98% +30  7 - 2 +25 +18 A B C+ +9 A+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 38 Utah St. L 78 - 83 25% -6  7 - 3 +9 +15 A+ A+ D- -7 D- D- A+
 Thu, Dec 18 137 @Southern Illinois W 75 - 68 58% -0  8 - 3 1 - 0 +11 +8 B- A C +4 C D A+
 Sun, Dec 21 198 Indiana St. W 85 - 65 87% +15  9 - 3 2 - 0 +15 +13 A- F+ A+ +2 C+ A+ D+
 Mon, Dec 29 162 @Drake W 73 - 56 64% +8  10 - 3 3 - 0 +20 +6 A+ F F +15 A+ B- C
 Thu, Jan 1 269 Evansville W 73 - 47 92% +14  11 - 3 4 - 0 +17 -4 C F A +20 A+ A A+
 Wed, Jan 7 160 @Valparaiso L 71 - 77 64% -5  11 - 4 4 - 1 -3 +7 C- B A- -11 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 135 Illinois-Chicago L 59 - 63 OT 77% -1  11 - 5 4 - 2 -5 -13 F C- B+ +7 A+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 14 198 @Indiana St. L 89 - 94 72% -6  11 - 6 4 - 3 -4 +19 A+ B- B+ -23 F A F
 Sat, Jan 17 121 Bradley W 88 - 62 74% +13  12 - 6 5 - 3 +26 +19 A A- A+ +8 A+ B+ A-
 Wed, Jan 21 110 Northern Iowa W 59 - 54 71% +5  13 - 6 6 - 3 +6 -4 D+ B+ F +10 A+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 24 74 @Belmont L 69 - 80 34% -6  13 - 7 6 - 4 -0 -0 D- B+ D+ +0 D- A B-
 Wed, Jan 28 106 @Murray St. W 70 - 65 47% +3  14 - 7 7 - 4 +12 -1 B- C D+ +14 A+ A- D-
 Tue, Feb 3 137 Southern Illinois W 74 - 66 78%
 Fri, Feb 6 162 Drake W 76 - 66 82%
 Mon, Feb 9 269 @Evansville W 74 - 64 81%
 Thu, Feb 12 160 Valparaiso W 73 - 63 81%
 Sun, Feb 15 135 @Illinois-Chicago W 71 - 69 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 106 Murray St. W 82 - 77 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 121 @Bradley W 73 - 72 53%
 Wed, Feb 25 110 @Northern Iowa L 62 - 63 50%
 Sun, Mar 1 74 Belmont W 77 - 75 56%
Totals 20 - 10 13 - 7 +6 +2 B- C C +4 B B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 4.0 7.0 3.8 15.2 1st
2nd 1.7 12.3 17.4 6.3 0.4 38.2 2nd
3rd 0.8 8.4 10.4 2.1 0.0 21.7 3rd
4th 0.0 3.3 7.6 1.6 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.8 1.6 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 10.2 19.2 24.8 23.5 13.4 4.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 89.5% 3.8    2.6 1.2
15-5 52.6% 7.0    2.7 3.8 0.5
14-6 17.0% 4.0    0.6 1.9 1.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 5.9 6.9 2.1 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 4.2% 41.5% 40.6% 1.0% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.3 2.5 1.6%
15-5 13.4% 32.3% 32.1% 0.2% 11.6 1.8 2.5 0.1 9.1 0.3%
14-6 23.5% 27.5% 27.5% 11.8 1.5 4.7 0.3 17.1
13-7 24.8% 23.6% 23.6% 12.0 0.6 4.7 0.5 19.0
12-8 19.2% 19.7% 19.7% 12.1 0.2 2.9 0.6 0.0 15.4
11-9 10.2% 15.8% 15.8% 12.2 0.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 8.6
10-10 3.4% 9.8% 9.8% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.1
9-11 1.1% 6.4% 6.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 1.0
8-12 0.2% 5.9% 5.9% 13.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.2% 24.1% 0.1% 11.9 75.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 11.1 1.8 4.7 75.3 18.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 1.8% 11.0 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 3.3% 11.0 3.3