Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#126
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#120
Pace62.9#329
Improvement+2.5#63

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#91
First Shot+6.3#35
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#332
Layup/Dunks-1.8#247
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#11
Freethrows+1.3#99
Improvement+2.2#52

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#205
First Shot-2.3#250
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#80
Layups/Dunks+2.4#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#308
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#279
Freethrows-1.0#253
Improvement+0.3#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 8.8% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 12.9
.500 or above 89.0% 93.1% 79.2%
.500 or above in Conference 72.2% 79.3% 54.9%
Conference Champion 6.2% 7.7% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 2.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round7.9% 8.8% 5.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 38 - 611 - 11
Quad 48 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 289   Tennessee Martin L 65-67 87%     0 - 1 -12.1 -17.1 +5.2
  Nov 07, 2024 140   @ North Dakota St. W 77-68 42%     1 - 1 +13.4 +7.7 +6.5
  Nov 12, 2024 150   Ohio W 85-75 68%     2 - 1 +7.4 +18.3 -10.0
  Nov 22, 2024 73   McNeese St. L 68-76 30%     2 - 2 -0.3 +8.5 -9.9
  Nov 23, 2024 107   UAB W 84-83 44%     3 - 2 +4.8 +5.4 -0.6
  Nov 25, 2024 125   George Washington L 64-72 50%     3 - 3 -5.6 -4.1 -2.0
  Dec 04, 2024 138   @ Belmont L 97-99 OT 41%     3 - 4 0 - 1 +2.5 +11.5 -8.7
  Dec 07, 2024 305   Pacific W 72-61 89%     4 - 4 -0.1 +0.9 +0.2
  Dec 15, 2024 105   Saint Louis W 81-77 56%     5 - 4 +4.8 +15.9 -10.6
  Dec 18, 2024 348   Northern Illinois W 81-60 94%     6 - 4 +5.5 +2.5 +2.9
  Dec 22, 2024 149   @ Cornell W 80-77 45%     7 - 4 +6.6 +10.2 -3.4
  Dec 29, 2024 143   Illinois-Chicago L 67-73 67%     7 - 5 0 - 2 -8.2 -1.5 -7.3
  Jan 02, 2025 133   @ Murray St. W 74-68 40%     8 - 5 1 - 2 +10.9 +12.1 -0.5
  Jan 05, 2025 251   Southern Illinois W 85-54 83%     9 - 5 2 - 2 +22.9 +11.4 +12.2
  Jan 08, 2025 276   @ Evansville W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 103   Northern Iowa W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 15, 2025 92   @ Drake L 60-67 26%    
  Jan 18, 2025 217   Missouri St. W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 21, 2025 157   Indiana St. W 81-76 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 91   @ Bradley L 67-74 26%    
  Jan 29, 2025 138   Belmont W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 206   Valparaiso W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 05, 2025 143   @ Illinois-Chicago L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 103   @ Northern Iowa L 67-72 31%    
  Feb 12, 2025 92   Drake L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 157   @ Indiana St. L 78-79 47%    
  Feb 19, 2025 91   Bradley L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 217   @ Missouri St. W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 25, 2025 251   @ Southern Illinois W 73-69 65%    
  Mar 02, 2025 276   Evansville W 73-61 86%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 6.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.0 5.3 1.6 0.1 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.5 2.2 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.8 3.6 0.2 13.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 6.2 4.8 0.5 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.9 5.0 1.1 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 3.5 4.2 1.3 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.9 1.0 0.1 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.5 8.1 12.0 15.4 16.6 15.3 11.6 7.4 3.9 1.5 0.3 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 97.6% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-4 89.7% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 59.8% 2.3    1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
14-6 22.8% 1.7    0.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 2.8 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 44.8% 44.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.3% 24.9% 24.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3
16-4 1.5% 23.1% 23.1% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.1
15-5 3.9% 22.1% 22.1% 12.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.1
14-6 7.4% 17.0% 17.0% 12.4 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.2
13-7 11.6% 13.8% 13.8% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.0
12-8 15.3% 9.1% 9.1% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 13.9
11-9 16.6% 6.3% 6.3% 13.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 15.6
10-10 15.4% 4.1% 4.1% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 14.8
9-11 12.0% 3.3% 3.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.6
8-12 8.1% 2.0% 2.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.0
7-13 4.5% 1.4% 1.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 4.4
6-14 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.1
5-15 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-16 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.2 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 92.1 0.0%