Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.9 #85
Expected Predictive Rating +5.8 #88
Pace 66.9 #242
Improvement +3.1 #39

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #85 B C C+ D+ C-
Defense #84 B- A- C C B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #237 1.33 #30 +2.0 #109
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #144 0.80 #113 +1.2 #114
Three Pointers 42% #168 1.04 #146 +0.9 #148
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #75 +4.0 #74
Freethrows 17.2 #200 67% #319 11.5 #250
Second Chance 29.0% #236 1.14 #80 0.33 #157
Turnovers 15.7% #123
Total Offense +3.7 #85

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #273 1.19 #214 +1.3 #128
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #41 0.62 #31 -0.6 #230
Three Pointers 39% #249 1.01 #179 +1.3 #134
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #108 +2.0 #114
Freethrows 18.8 #256 64% #5 12.0 #206
Second Chance 26.3% #47 0.90 #33 0.24 #25
Turnovers 16.9% #166
Total Defense +3.3 #84

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #235 -1.9% #44
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.6% #58 -2.3% #139
Possession Length 18.3 #280 17.0 #133
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #301 0.16 #148
Improvement +2.2 #56 +0.9 #122

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.8% 22.5% 17.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.1
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 98.5% 92.9%
Conference Champion 30.3% 32.6% 16.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round21.7% 22.4% 17.1%
Second Round4.0% 4.2% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 86.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 33 - 5
Quad 39 - 412 - 9
Quad 410 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 170 @Ohio L 68 - 72 68%  -2  0 - 1 -2 -4 D+ F C +2 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 168 Cornell W 76 - 65 84%  +4  1 - 1 +7 -7 F D F +14 A+ B D-
 Fri, Nov 14 46 USC L 67 - 87 34%  -12  1 - 2 -9 +0 F B+ B- -10 C C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 262 @Long Beach St. W 82 - 80 82%  +4  2 - 2 -1 +10 D+ F A+ -11 F C F
 Sun, Nov 23 270 Coastal Carolina W 94 - 42 93%  +30  3 - 2 +43 +13 A+ D+ A+ +26 A+ A+ C
 Thu, Nov 27 166 Charlotte W 79 - 69 77%  +10  4 - 2 +9 +9 B C+ A+ +1 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 150 Furman W 72 - 65 73%  +4  5 - 2 +7 +3 C A+ C- +5 C A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 254 Eastern Kentucky W 89 - 78 92%  +9  6 - 2 +3 +8 A A+ F -5 D+ C B-
 Sat, Dec 6 353 Chicago St. W 95 - 53 97%  +30  7 - 2 +26 +18 A+ B+ C+ +9 A+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 35 Utah St. L 78 - 83 25%  -6  7 - 3 +9 +15 A+ A+ F -6 D D- A+
 Thu, Dec 18 130 @Southern Illinois W 75 - 68 58%  -0  8 - 3 1 - 0 +12 +7 B- A+ D+ +5 C+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 191 Indiana St. W 85 - 65 87%  +15  9 - 3 2 - 0 +15 +13 A+ F A+ +2 C A+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 169 @Drake W 73 - 56 68%  +8  10 - 3 3 - 0 +19 +5 A+ F F +15 A+ B C-
 Thu, Jan 1 263 Evansville W 73 - 47 92%  +14  11 - 3 4 - 0 +17 -2 C F A+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 188 @Valparaiso L 71 - 77 71%  -5  11 - 4 4 - 1 -5 +6 C- B- A -12 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 184 Illinois-Chicago W 78 - 66 86% 
 Wed, Jan 14 191 @Indiana St. W 77 - 71 71% 
 Sat, Jan 17 116 Bradley W 75 - 69 72% 
 Wed, Jan 21 96 Northern Iowa W 65 - 61 66% 
 Sun, Jan 25 73 @Belmont L 75 - 79 35% 
 Wed, Jan 28 91 @Murray St. L 78 - 80 42% 
 Tue, Feb 3 130 Southern Illinois W 77 - 69 77% 
 Fri, Feb 6 169 Drake W 76 - 65 85% 
 Mon, Feb 9 263 @Evansville W 75 - 65 82% 
 Thu, Feb 12 188 Valparaiso W 76 - 64 86% 
 Sun, Feb 15 184 @Illinois-Chicago W 75 - 69 70% 
 Wed, Feb 18 91 Murray St. W 81 - 77 64% 
 Sat, Feb 21 116 @Bradley W 73 - 72 51% 
 Wed, Feb 25 96 @Northern Iowa L 62 - 64 44% 
 Sun, Mar 1 73 Belmont W 78 - 76 57% 
Totals 21 - 9 14 - 6 +7 +4 B C C+ +3 B- A- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 7.8 10.2 6.9 2.5 0.5 30.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 3.1 9.2 8.4 2.6 0.3 23.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.7 8.1 6.0 1.1 0.1 18.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.1 4.6 0.9 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 3.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.1 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.5 7.3 11.7 16.5 18.4 17.2 12.9 7.2 2.5 0.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
18-2 100.0% 2.5    2.5 0.1
17-3 96.1% 6.9    6.0 0.9 0.0
16-4 79.0% 10.2    6.7 3.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 45.0% 7.8    2.8 3.7 1.2 0.1
14-6 12.6% 2.3    0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 30.3% 30.3 18.8 8.7 2.4 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.5% 55.3% 51.1% 4.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8.7%
18-2 2.5% 42.6% 39.8% 2.8% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.4 4.6%
17-3 7.2% 36.8% 36.6% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.9 0.0 4.5 0.4%
16-4 12.9% 29.1% 29.0% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 1.5 2.1 0.1 9.1 0.2%
15-5 17.2% 27.0% 27.0% 11.8 1.2 3.2 0.3 12.6
14-6 18.4% 22.3% 22.3% 12.0 0.5 3.1 0.5 14.3
13-7 16.5% 16.7% 16.7% 12.2 0.2 2.0 0.6 0.0 13.7
12-8 11.7% 12.6% 12.6% 12.4 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 10.3
11-9 7.3% 8.9% 8.9% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 6.7
10-10 3.5% 8.1% 8.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.2
9-11 1.5% 5.4% 5.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
8-12 0.6% 5.2% 5.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.8% 21.7% 0.1% 11.8 78.2 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 9.1 4.2 10.4 8.3 14.6 8.3 20.8 31.3 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 4.3% 11.0 4.3