Iona
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.0 #231
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 #199
Pace 73.0 #70
Improvement -6.2 #359

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #276 C D C- D- C
Defense #161 C C- C- B D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #263 1.10 #253 -2.7 #276
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #239 0.78 #145 -1.0 #236
Three Pointers 47% #58 1.04 #149 +3.6 #64
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #183 -0.2 #182
Freethrows 0.25 #324 69% #300 0.17 #337
Second Chance 24.1% #342 1.01 #203 0.24 #325
Turnovers 17.6% #241
Total Offense -4.0 #276

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #100 1.19 #230 -2.7 #277
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #230 0.70 #83 +1.3 #87
Three Pointers 39% #233 0.96 #107 +1.9 #112
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #165 +0.4 #164
Freethrows 0.26 #66 69% #46 0.18 #50
Second Chance 34.1% #315 0.97 #102 0.33 #235
Turnovers 15.9% #227
Total Defense +0.0 #161

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #164 1.0% #264
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.7% #182 -1.7% #147
Possession Length 17.2 #174 16.3 #36
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #199 0.22 #326
Improvement -5.7 #359 -0.5 #213

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 9.4% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 99.2% 99.9% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 82.1% 94.2% 77.3%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
First Round6.3% 9.1% 5.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Away) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 34 - 5
Quad 416 - 820 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 126 Hofstra W 81 - 73 38% +14  1 - 0 +7 +1 B- C- F +5 C A- A-
 Tue, Nov 11 358 @UMKC W 105 - 91 76% +9  2 - 0 +2 +9 A+ F+ F+ -9 F+ D- B-
 Fri, Nov 14 169 Fordham W 76 - 71 49% -0  3 - 0 +1 +4 A+ F A -3 A F D+
 Tue, Nov 18 213 Princeton W 89 - 69 58% +18  4 - 0 +14 +5 A- C- C- +7 A- A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 61 Akron L 75 - 96 11% -18  4 - 1 -12 -3 D+ C D- -7 C- D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 184 Oregon St. W 91 - 84 2OT 41% -5  5 - 1 +5 +1 C D C +3 C A C-
 Mon, Nov 24 258 Green Bay L 75 - 80 56% +0  5 - 2 -10 -2 D C B- -9 A F F
 Mon, Dec 1 286 @Delaware W 89 - 66 51% +7  6 - 2 +19 +15 A+ F C- +3 C D+ C-
 Fri, Dec 5 186 Quinnipiac L 68 - 89 53% -7  6 - 3 0 - 1 -26 -9 F C+ C -16 D F C
 Sun, Dec 7 276 @Sacred Heart W 81 - 69 47% +4  7 - 3 1 - 1 +9 +3 D+ C- C +5 D C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 347 Bryant W 69 - 63 84% +5  8 - 3 -9 -6 D D C+ -2 F B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 19 @St. John's L 64 - 91 2% -8  8 - 4 -6 -4 D- C- A- +0 F+ B- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 211 @Vermont W 83 - 78 35% +0  9 - 4 +5 +12 B- A- A- -7 C+ C- F
 Mon, Dec 29 289 @Mount St. Mary's L 59 - 66 51% -1  9 - 5 1 - 2 -11 -17 F C- F +6 C+ B- C-
 Fri, Jan 2 174 Siena W 75 - 72 50% +4  10 - 5 2 - 2 -1 -2 A+ F F +1 B B F+
 Sun, Jan 4 161 @Marist L 38 - 83 26% -21  10 - 6 2 - 3 -42 -28 F F F -13 C+ F F
 Fri, Jan 9 349 Niagara W 71 - 53 85% +16  11 - 6 3 - 3 +3 +2 C C- C +3 A- B- F
 Sun, Jan 11 345 Canisius W 74 - 48 84% +8  12 - 6 4 - 3 +11 +6 A+ C+ F +9 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 14 352 @Rider L 68 - 72 71% -7  12 - 7 4 - 4 -14 +1 D+ F+ A+ -15 D- F D+
 Mon, Jan 19 235 @St. Peter's L 63 - 77 39% -3  12 - 8 4 - 5 -15 -7 F D A+ -9 F B+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 201 Merrimack W 61 - 60 56% +1  13 - 8 5 - 5 -5 -3 C F C+ -1 C F A
 Sat, Jan 24 327 Manhattan W 66 - 57 81% +8  14 - 8 6 - 5 -4 -11 D- F D- +7 A+ C C+
 Fri, Jan 30 272 Fairfield L 70 - 71 69% +2  14 - 9 6 - 6 -10 +0 C- B- D -10 F B B-
 Thu, Feb 5 174 @Siena L 69 - 75 28%
 Sat, Feb 7 289 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 69 73%
 Fri, Feb 13 345 @Canisius W 71 - 66 67%
 Sun, Feb 15 349 @Niagara W 71 - 66 68%
 Fri, Feb 20 235 St. Peter's W 71 - 68 60%
 Sun, Feb 22 201 @Merrimack L 67 - 71 34%
 Fri, Feb 27 352 Rider W 78 - 66 86%
 Sun, Mar 1 327 @Manhattan W 79 - 76 61%
Totals 19 - 12 11 - 9 -4 -4 C D C- +0 C C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 1st
2nd 0.8 0.8 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 3.3 0.3 4.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 5.2 3.7 0.1 9.6 4th
5th 0.3 6.6 10.0 1.2 18.2 5th
6th 0.8 9.4 18.3 4.5 0.0 33.0 6th
7th 0.2 5.0 10.6 3.0 0.1 18.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 5.5 2.0 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.3 2.0 1.3 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.9 4.3 12.6 22.4 28.7 20.3 9.2 1.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 20.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.5% 14.8% 14.8% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.3
13-7 9.2% 13.9% 13.9% 14.7 0.5 0.7 0.1 7.9
12-8 20.3% 9.6% 9.6% 15.1 0.3 1.1 0.5 18.4
11-9 28.7% 6.4% 6.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.8 26.8
10-10 22.4% 4.2% 4.2% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 21.5
9-11 12.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.1 0.2 12.3
8-12 4.3% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.2
7-13 0.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 15.2 93.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.8 20.0 77.8 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%