Iona
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.9 #214
Expected Predictive Rating +1.1 #150
Pace 76.7 #32
Improvement -7.5 #365

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #253 C D- C D C
Defense #176 C C D+ A- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #210 1.15 #191 -0.8 #210
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #203 0.76 #161 -0.2 #186
Three Pointers 44% #134 1.01 #188 +1.3 #130
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #179 +0.3 #174
Freethrows 15.3 #288 70% #264 10.7 #282
Second Chance 23.6% #340 1.06 #162 0.25 #310
Turnovers 17.2% #215
Total Offense -2.7 #253

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #129 1.23 #270 -2.6 #265
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #221 0.63 #39 +1.0 #122
Three Pointers 41% #197 0.94 #92 +1.7 #120
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #147 +0.1 #171
Freethrows 14.1 #39 68% #29 9.5 #341
Second Chance 32.8% #261 1.01 #143 0.33 #200
Turnovers 15.5% #252
Total Defense -0.3 #176

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #175 0.8% #241
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.1% #174 -2.5% #136
Possession Length 16.5 #106 16.3 #46
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #158 0.21 #304
Improvement -7.1 #365 -0.4 #218

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 11.4% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 99.1% 99.5% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.1% 94.1% 81.0%
Conference Champion 7.5% 8.5% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round10.5% 11.3% 6.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 84.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 44 - 6
Quad 417 - 621 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 109 Hofstra W 81 - 73 34%  +14  1 - 0 +9 +3 B D+ F +6 B- A+ A-
 Tue, Nov 11 343 @UMKC W 105 - 91 71%  +9  2 - 0 +5 +11 A+ F F -8 F F C+
 Fri, Nov 14 203 Fordham W 76 - 71 60%  -0  3 - 0 -0 +2 A+ F A+ -3 A+ F D
 Tue, Nov 18 242 Princeton W 89 - 69 67%  +18  4 - 0 +12 +6 A C C +5 A- A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 64 Akron L 75 - 96 14%  -18  4 - 1 -12 -4 D C F -6 D C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 22 182 Oregon St. W 91 - 84 2OT 45%  -5  5 - 1 +5 +1 C D C +3 C A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 249 Green Bay L 75 - 80 58%  +0  5 - 2 -10 +1 D+ C B- -11 A+ F F
 Mon, Dec 1 277 @Delaware W 89 - 66 53%  +7  6 - 2 +19 +16 A+ F C +3 C+ D+ D+
 Fri, Dec 5 158 Quinnipiac L 68 - 89 51%  -7  6 - 3 0 - 1 -24 -8 F C C -16 D- F D+
 Sun, Dec 7 285 @Sacred Heart W 81 - 69 54%  +4  7 - 3 1 - 1 +8 +3 D D+ B- +5 F B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 317 Bryant W 69 - 63 81%  +5  8 - 3 -6 -4 D+ F B -2 F B- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 21 @St. John's L 64 - 91 3%  -8  8 - 4 -8 -4 D D- A+ -1 F B- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 198 @Vermont W 83 - 78 36%  +0  9 - 4 +6 +11 C A+ A+ -5 C+ C F
 Mon, Dec 29 292 @Mount St. Mary's L 59 - 66 55%  +2  9 - 5 1 - 2 -11 -17 F C- F +6 C A C
 Fri, Jan 2 190 Siena W 75 - 72 58%  +4  10 - 5 2 - 2 -2 -1 A+ F F -1 C+ B+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 140 @Marist L 38 - 83 25%  -21  10 - 6 2 - 3 -41 -28 F F F -12 C F F
 Fri, Jan 9 354 Niagara W 71 - 53 89%  +16  11 - 6 3 - 3 +2 +1 D+ D C+ +3 A- B- F
 Sun, Jan 11 331 Canisius W 77 - 66 85% 
 Wed, Jan 14 348 @Rider W 74 - 68 73% 
 Mon, Jan 19 259 @St. Peter's L 70 - 71 49% 
 Thu, Jan 22 237 Merrimack W 73 - 69 65% 
 Sat, Jan 24 311 Manhattan W 84 - 75 80% 
 Fri, Jan 30 282 Fairfield W 81 - 74 74% 
 Thu, Feb 5 190 @Siena L 71 - 75 36% 
 Sat, Feb 7 292 Mount St. Mary's W 79 - 72 75% 
 Fri, Feb 13 331 @Canisius W 74 - 69 67% 
 Sun, Feb 15 354 @Niagara W 74 - 67 75% 
 Fri, Feb 20 259 St. Peter's W 74 - 68 71% 
 Sun, Feb 22 237 @Merrimack L 70 - 72 43% 
 Fri, Feb 27 348 Rider W 77 - 65 87% 
 Sun, Mar 1 311 @Manhattan W 81 - 78 61% 
Totals 20 - 11 12 - 8 -3 -3 C D- C +0 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 2.9 2.6 0.7 7.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.5 5.0 1.3 0.1 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 8.4 6.6 1.9 0.1 19.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 7.8 7.4 1.6 0.1 18.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 6.0 6.6 1.5 0.1 15.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.0 1.2 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 3.3 0.9 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.8 9.4 14.1 18.5 19.6 16.0 9.8 4.0 0.8 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 86.2% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 64.9% 2.6    1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 29.2% 2.9    0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1
14-6 7.9% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 2.8 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.8% 30.2% 30.2% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-4 4.0% 23.4% 23.4% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.0
15-5 9.8% 19.6% 19.6% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 7.9
14-6 16.0% 14.1% 14.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.1 13.7
13-7 19.6% 12.2% 12.2% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.3 17.2
12-8 18.5% 8.8% 8.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.4 16.9
11-9 14.1% 5.5% 5.5% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 13.3
10-10 9.4% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.1 0.2 9.1
9-11 4.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.6
8-12 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.1
7-13 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 14.7 89.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.9 33.3 47.9 18.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%