Marquette
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.4 #110
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #175
Pace 73.8 #64
Improvement -0.5 #207

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #148 D+ C A C A+
Defense #72 C+ C A- B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #10 1.07 #278 +3.3 #79
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #361 0.66 #291 -5.1 #362
Three Pointers 45% #122 0.91 #302 -0.6 #209
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #247 -2.4 #247
Freethrows 18.9 #102 69% #286 13.0 #158
Second Chance 33.3% #110 0.95 #289 0.32 #183
Turnovers 13.4% #26
Total Offense +0.5 #148

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #156 1.14 #150 -0.3 #194
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #183 0.62 #28 +1.4 #90
Three Pointers 40% #211 1.01 #177 +0.5 #164
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #128 +1.6 #128
Freethrows 15.3 #79 75% #276 11.4 #257
Second Chance 29.8% #140 1.04 #184 0.31 #156
Turnovers 20.1% #31
Total Defense +3.9 #72

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.7% #3 0.3% #187
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.0% #314 -3.5% #113
Possession Length 15.1 #27 18.5 #339
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #8 0.16 #124
Improvement -1.7 #282 +1.2 #101

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.1 14.3
.500 or above 1.1% 2.9% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 2.7% 6.3% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 42.3% 26.8% 47.6%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Home) - 25.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 12
Quad 23 - 74 - 19
Quad 32 - 36 - 22
Quad 45 - 011 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 322 Albany W 80 - 53 94%  +13  1 - 0 +14 -8 D+ F F +19 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 5 256 Southern W 100 - 82 88%  +9  2 - 0 +9 +12 B+ C A+ -5 D C+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 25 Indiana L 77 - 100 15%  -12  2 - 1 -7 +5 F A+ D -11 D+ D F
 Wed, Nov 12 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 49 91%  +18  3 - 1 +29 +15 A- F A+ +16 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 107 Maryland L 82 - 89 61%  -3  3 - 2 -6 +3 F A+ A+ -8 F B- C-
 Wed, Nov 19 75 Dayton L 71 - 77 OT 48%  -5  3 - 3 -1 -7 D- D C- +6 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 22 323 Central Michigan W 85 - 71 94%  +5  4 - 3 +1 +4 A- F A- -4 C A D
 Fri, Nov 28 48 Oklahoma L 74 - 75 27%  +4  4 - 4 +10 +12 B+ F A+ -2 C- D+ C+
 Tue, Dec 2 188 Valparaiso W 75 - 72 OT 81%  -2  5 - 4 -2 -5 D- F C +3 D- C- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 43 @Wisconsin L 76 - 96 16%  -12  5 - 5 -5 +3 B+ F A+ -6 F A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 4 @Purdue L 59 - 79 3%  -16  5 - 6 +6 +1 D- A+ D +3 C D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 103 Georgetown L 69 - 78 60%  -2  5 - 7 0 - 1 -7 +3 F A A+ -11 C- F B
 Sat, Dec 20 37 @Creighton L 63 - 84 13%  -14  5 - 8 0 - 2 -5 -8 D- D- C +5 C+ B B
 Tue, Dec 30 53 Seton Hall L 73 - 79 40%  +2  5 - 9 0 - 3 +1 +6 D B A+ -5 A+ F A-
 Sun, Jan 4 5 @Connecticut L 57 - 73 4%  -11  5 - 10 0 - 4 +9 -2 D+ C- B+ +10 A+ B C
 Wed, Jan 7 97 Xavier W 66 - 65 58%  +5  6 - 10 1 - 4 +3 -6 F A+ F +9 B A A+
 Sat, Jan 10 31 Villanova L 67 - 74 25% 
 Tue, Jan 13 21 @St. John's L 70 - 85 8% 
 Fri, Jan 16 102 @DePaul L 69 - 73 38% 
 Mon, Jan 19 66 Providence L 82 - 83 44% 
 Fri, Jan 23 57 @Butler L 74 - 82 22% 
 Tue, Jan 27 37 Creighton L 72 - 78 29% 
 Sat, Jan 31 53 @Seton Hall L 64 - 73 21% 
 Sat, Feb 7 57 Butler L 77 - 79 43% 
 Tue, Feb 10 31 @Villanova L 64 - 77 12% 
 Sat, Feb 14 97 @Xavier L 74 - 78 35% 
 Wed, Feb 18 21 St. John's L 73 - 82 21% 
 Tue, Feb 24 103 @Georgetown L 74 - 77 38% 
 Sun, Mar 1 102 DePaul W 72 - 70 59% 
 Wed, Mar 4 66 @Providence L 79 - 86 25% 
 Sat, Mar 7 5 Connecticut L 64 - 78 9% 
Totals 10 - 21 5 - 15 +4 +1 D+ C A +4 C+ C A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.6 1.2 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.5 6.3 1.9 0.1 14.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 6.5 7.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 18.5 9th
10th 0.2 2.5 7.9 8.8 3.1 0.2 22.7 10th
11th 1.5 5.5 9.6 7.8 3.0 0.4 27.8 11th
Total 1.5 5.8 12.3 17.2 19.3 17.2 12.5 7.6 4.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 25.9% 25.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 25.9%
11-9 0.7% 3.8% 3.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.8%
10-10 1.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.6%
9-11 4.0% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 4.0
8-12 7.6% 0.3% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 7.5
7-13 12.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 12.5
6-14 17.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 17.2
5-15 19.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.3
4-16 17.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.2
3-17 12.3% 12.3
2-18 5.8% 5.8
1-19 1.5% 1.5
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 99.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%