Marquette
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.4 88
Results Rating +2.3 126
Pace 72.0 86
Improvement +4.3 40

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 101 C+ C B C- A
Defense B- 83 C+ C+ A- B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 9 C 59% 155 +5.5 24
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 355 C 39% 149 -4.9 360
Three Pointers 45% 96 C- 33% 246 +1.1 145
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.3 3 C -0.6 194
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 122
Second Chance C+ 31.5% 153 C- 1.00 225 C 0.31 166
Turnovers B 14.4% 44
Freethrows C 0.31 181 D+ 69% 282 C- 0.21 208
Total Offense B- +3.0 101

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 83 B 8.5% 50
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 38% 30 C- 5.7% 234
Three Pointers B 90% 53 C 1.0% 210
Total B+ 65% 29 B- 4.9% 102

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 139 C+ 56% 138 +0.2 189
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 167 B 35% 66 -0.6 145
Three Pointers 39% 239 C+ 33% 145 -1.3 129
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 177 C+ -1.7 106
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 121
Second Chance C- 31.6% 234 B- 0.96 72 C+ 0.30 161
Turnovers A- 20.5% 26
Freethrows B- 0.27 67 D 75% 304 B- 0.20 102
Total Defense B- +3.4 83

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 328 C 10.8% 183
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 223 B- 6.8% 72
Three Pointers B- 81% 90 C- 0.6% 235
Total C- 59% 249 C 5.9% 148

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.0 13 18.8 346
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 9 0.16 160
Improvement +3.6 #31 +0.6 #149

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 102 89 71
Results Rating Rank 173 118 97
Conference Record 4 - 16 5 - 15 7 - 13
Conference Finish 11 10 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.9
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 78% 50% 92%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b0 - 50 - 11
Quad 22 - 73 - 18
Quad 34 - 37 - 21
Quad 44 - 011 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 316 Albany W 80 - 53 95% +13  90% 1 - 0 A- +15 F+ -9 D+ F F+ A+ +21 A+ D- A+
 Wed, Nov 5 258 Southern W 100 - 82 91% +9  88% 2 - 0 B +9 A- +9 A- D- A+ C- -2 D+ C C-
 Sun, Nov 9 38 Indiana L 77 - 100 25% -12  5% 2 - 1 D -9 C +1 F A+ F+ F+ -9 C- D- D-
 Wed, Nov 12 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 49 94% +18  86% 3 - 1 A+ +29 A +12 A D A A+ +18 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 104 Maryland L 82 - 89 69% -3  28% 3 - 2 D+ -6 C- -1 F A+ B D+ -4 F A+ C-
 Wed, Nov 19 87 Dayton L 71 - 77 OT 61% -5  9% 3 - 3 C- -2 F -10 D D+ D- A +9 F+ B- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 270 Central Michigan W 85 - 71 92% +5  90% 4 - 3 C+ +5 C+ +4 A- F+ A- C+ +1 B- A D
 Fri, Nov 28 52 Oklahoma L 74 - 75 35% +4  76% 4 - 4 B +9 B+ +8 B F+ A+ C+ +1 C D+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 151 Valparaiso W 75 - 72 OT 81% -2  23% 5 - 4 C +0 D- -8 F+ D- C- A- +8 D B- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 30 @Wisconsin L 76 - 96 14% -12  0% 5 - 5 C- -2 C- -1 B F A+ C+ +1 D- A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 7 @Purdue L 59 - 79 6% -16  0% 5 - 6 C+ +4 D+ -3 F A C B+ +6 C D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 71 Georgetown L 69 - 78 56% -2  42% 5 - 7 0 - 1 C- -4 C+ +2 D+ B+ A+ D- -7 B- F C
 Sat, Dec 20 63 @Creighton L 63 - 84 31% -14  19% 5 - 8 0 - 2 D -9 F -14 F F+ C B+ +7 B- C+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 54 Seton Hall L 73 - 79 48% +2  60% 5 - 9 0 - 3 C +1 B- +5 C- C- A+ D+ -4 A F B
 Sun, Jan 4 9 @Connecticut L 57 - 73 7% -11  0% 5 - 10 0 - 4 B- +7 D -6 D D+ A- A+ +12 A+ B C
 Wed, Jan 7 84 Xavier W 66 - 65 60% +5  94% 6 - 10 1 - 4 B- +5 F+ -9 F A+ F+ A+ +14 B+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 10 35 Villanova L 73 - 76 31% -3  2% 6 - 11 1 - 5 B +8 A- +10 A D+ A+ C- -2 D C+ B-
 Tue, Jan 13 19 @St. John's L 68 - 92 9% -11  0% 6 - 12 1 - 6 C- -3 C +0 A+ F F+ C -1 C C- B
 Fri, Jan 16 93 @DePaul L 75 - 80 40% +0  50% 6 - 13 1 - 7 C+ +4 A +13 A+ F A+ F+ -9 D+ F F
 Mon, Jan 19 61 Providence W 105 - 104 OT 52% +3  71% 7 - 13 2 - 7 B- +7 A +13 A A A+ D- -7 D+ F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 75 @Butler L 76 - 87 34% -5  2% 7 - 14 2 - 8 C -0 B- +4 B A D- D+ -4 B- F B-
 Tue, Jan 27 63 Creighton W 86 - 62 53% +17  92% 8 - 14 3 - 8 A+ +30 A +13 A+ C- A+ A+ +17 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 54 @Seton Hall L 64 - 69 27% +2  62% 8 - 15 3 - 9 B- +8 B+ +9 C A+ D C -1 C- F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 75 Butler W 70 - 55 57% +8  85% 9 - 15 4 - 9 A +20 C- -2 A+ F C- A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Feb 10 35 @Villanova L 74 - 77 15% -3  25% 9 - 16 4 - 10 B+ +14 B +6 A- B+ F A- +8 A D+ B+
 Sat, Feb 14 84 @Xavier L 88 - 96 37% -11  1% 9 - 17 4 - 11 C+ +2 A +14 B A A F -12 D- D- C-
 Wed, Feb 18 19 St. John's L 70 - 76 20% -3  13% 9 - 18 4 - 12 B +9 B- +5 C+ B- A+ B +4 B- B- A-
 Tue, Feb 24 71 @Georgetown L 73 - 77 34%
 Sun, Mar 1 93 DePaul W 74 - 70 62%
 Wed, Mar 4 61 @Providence L 83 - 88 30%
 Sat, Mar 7 9 Connecticut L 69 - 79 16%
Totals 10 - 21 5 - 15 +6 B- +3 B C A B- +3 C- D+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C C C- C 47% 16% 45% A C+ C+ C- C B C D+ C- B- C+ B C+ C+ 40% 21% 39% C C+ C- B- C+ A- B- D B-
1.13 59% 39% 33% -1 +2 1.05 31% 1.0 .31 14% .31 69% .21 1.04 56% 35% 33% -2 0 0.99 32% 1.0 .30 21% .27 75% .23
Nov
3		 Albany F+ C- A+ F D- 49% 6% 45% A D+ B- F F F+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C A+ F C D- A+ D+ D D
1.04 57% 100% 24% -4 +3 1.00 38% 0.6 .23 18% .62 69% .43 0.69 44% 0% 18% -23 0 0.56 39% 0.9 .37 30% .26 71% .19
Nov
5		 Southern A- A+ C+ B A- 33% 8% 59% B+ A- D- D D- A+ F B D- C- C+ B- C C 56% 16% 27% F D+ C+ D C C- F D+ F
1.26 75% 40% 39% +10 +1 1.25 26% 1.0 .26 11% .29 80% .23 1.04 55% 33% 33% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.1 .30 16% .44 72% .32
Nov
9		 Indiana C D- F F F 51% 21% 28% A F A A A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F+ B- C+ F D+ 42% 16% 42% B- C- C+ F D- D- C- D- D
1.02 46% 10% 23% -17 +1 0.70 37% 1.3 .47 20% .55 88% .48 1.32 58% 44% 46% +9 +1 1.21 29% 1.4 .40 11% .36 83% .30
Nov
12		 Arkansas Little Rock A B+ F A+ A- 59% 4% 37% A+ A A- F D A B- F C- A+ C A+ D A 36% 30% 34% D+ A- C- A+ A+ A+ D A+ C
1.33 70% 0% 47% +13 +4 1.35 44% 0.6 .25 13% .31 61% .19 0.73 59% 0% 38% -9 -1 0.81 31% 0.5 .14 30% .28 54% .15
Nov
15		 Maryland C- D- A+ F F 42% 3% 55% A F A+ A A+ B B+ D+ B D+ F F C F 49% 10% 41% F F A+ F A+ C- F+ F F
1.06 50% 50% 24% -12 +3 0.84 39% 1.3 .49 14% .33 68% .23 1.15 68% 60% 33% +7 +2 1.20 14% 1.5 .21 17% .42 85% .36
Nov
19		 Dayton F F A+ F+ D- 33% 18% 49% B- D B- F D+ D- D B D+ A B- F F D- 56% 7% 38% F F+ A+ F B- A+ D- A- C-
0.88 44% 50% 30% -6 0 0.91 32% 0.8 .24 25% .26 75% .20 0.96 56% 67% 41% +5 +3 1.18 19% 1.6 .31 31% .47 69% .32
Nov
22		 Central Michigan C+ A F D+ B 57% 2% 40% A+ A- F+ C- F+ A- A+ F A+ C+ D+ A+ B B 40% 31% 29% C+ B- F+ A+ A D B D+ B-
1.19 70% 0% 32% +5 +4 1.19 28% 1.1 .31 13% .56 63% .35 1.00 61% 28% 29% -4 -1 0.91 35% 0.5 .19 15% .23 71% .17
Nov
28		 Oklahoma B+ F A+ A- B 41% 14% 45% A- B A F F+ A+ D+ C C- C+ F A+ D C 35% 19% 46% C+ C B- F D+ C- A+ A A+
1.17 43% 71% 39% +2 +1 1.08 41% 0.5 .21 8% .26 73% .19 1.19 72% 20% 38% +4 0 1.10 32% 1.5 .48 13% .16 67% .11
Dec
2		 Valparaiso D- F D- C F 51% 14% 35% A- F+ C F D- C- A+ A+ A+ A- F F B F+ 24% 35% 42% B+ D C+ B- B- A+ A+ B- A+
0.97 42% 29% 33% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.6 .19 18% .51 84% .43 0.94 69% 47% 30% +4 -3 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 27% .21 67% .14
Dec
6		 Wisconsin C- B- F C+ C+ 49% 10% 41% A+ B D- F F A+ C+ F F+ C+ D A- F F+ 28% 11% 60% B- D- A A+ A+ B+ F F+ F
0.97 58% 17% 35% -2 +2 1.03 17% 0.5 .09 10% .27 47% .13 1.22 67% 33% 44% +11 0 1.25 24% 0.8 .18 15% .44 83% .36
Dec
13		 Purdue D+ F F D- F 24% 22% 54% C+ F A+ C A C A A A B+ F C+ B- C 34% 21% 45% C C F B+ D A+ C F+ C-
0.91 45% 20% 28% -12 -1 0.76 37% 1.1 .39 18% .28 73% .21 1.21 88% 40% 33% +10 0 1.21 46% 1.1 .50 21% .29 80% .23
Dec
17		 Georgetown C+ C- F F F+ 48% 10% 42% A+ D+ C+ A+ B+ A+ F F+ F D- C C- A+ B 52% 22% 26% D- B- F D F C F+ F F
1.07 52% 20% 27% -9 +2 0.88 31% 1.3 .38 11% .21 67% .14 1.21 58% 40% 25% -3 +1 0.98 44% 1.2 .53 14% .42 87% .36
Dec
20		 Creighton F F F C F 54% 9% 37% A+ F F+ D- F+ C A F B- B+ A- C- F+ B- 34% 21% 45% B- B- A+ F C+ C+ D D- D-
0.82 39% 0% 33% -14 +3 0.79 19% 0.9 .17 16% .31 55% .17 1.09 53% 42% 40% +3 0 1.07 18% 1.5 .26 16% .31 80% .25
Dec
30		 Seton Hall B- F C- D+ D 46% 6% 48% A C- C- D+ C- A+ A C A- D+ B+ A+ A- A+ 48% 19% 33% D A F F F B F D- F
1.02 40% 33% 31% -11 +3 0.85 28% 0.8 .23 11% .43 70% .30 1.11 50% 10% 28% -12 +1 0.80 49% 1.3 .61 18% .50 76% .38
Jan
4		 Connecticut D F+ F F F 55% 4% 42% A+ D C+ F D+ A- C F D A+ D+ A A+ A+ 42% 18% 40% B- A+ D A+ B C D- B+ D+
0.83 41% 0% 23% -18 +3 0.74 27% 0.7 .18 16% .33 63% .21 1.07 67% 33% 20% -6 +1 0.92 40% 0.9 .36 16% .37 67% .24
Jan
7		 Xavier F+ D- D F F 54% 12% 35% A+ F A+ C+ A+ F+ B F D A+ A+ B+ F B+ 28% 30% 42% B B+ C+ A+ A A+ C C+ C
0.93 50% 33% 22% -11 +2 0.85 44% 0.9 .40 21% .32 50% .16 0.92 43% 33% 43% 0 -2 0.98 26% 0.6 .16 23% .26 71% .18
Jan
10		 Villanova A- C+ A+ B+ B+ 43% 4% 53% A+ A B- F D+ A+ B A+ A- C- F F A- D- 37% 16% 47% C D A+ F C+ B- A+ F A+
1.15 59% 50% 37% +3 +3 1.14 33% 0.7 .23 14% .28 80% .22 1.20 74% 88% 29% +10 +1 1.24 26% 1.3 .35 16% .13 100% .13
Jan
13		 St. John's C B A+ B A 64% 5% 32% A+ A+ D- F F F+ A+ F A+ C D+ F A+ C 54% 16% 30% D+ C D+ C+ C- B C+ F D-
0.91 57% 50% 36% +1 +4 1.11 21% 0.4 .09 25% .49 63% .31 1.23 61% 56% 24% 0 +2 1.05 41% 1.2 .47 16% .38 88% .34
Jan
16		 DePaul A A C A+ A+ 37% 15% 48% B+ A+ D- F F A+ F F F F+ C- A- F D 36% 26% 38% B D+ F D- F F A A+ A+
1.16 65% 38% 46% +11 +1 1.26 23% 0.4 .09 11% .23 38% .09 1.24 61% 31% 42% +4 -1 1.08 41% 1.3 .51 12% .23 54% .12
Jan
19		 Providence A A+ B+ F B+ 56% 15% 30% A+ A B- A+ A A+ A+ F A- D- C C+ F D+ 46% 15% 38% C- D+ F C- F A+ F F F
1.29 74% 44% 22% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.3 .41 7% .40 63% .25 1.28 63% 38% 45% +8 +1 1.21 45% 1.2 .55 21% .51 88% .45
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
23		 Butler B- A+ A+ F B- 42% 13% 44% B+ B A B+ A D- B- F+ C D+ C- F A+ B 53% 13% 34% D- B- D F F B- F D+ F
1.08 77% 71% 17% +2 +1 1.08 38% 1.1 .41 20% .25 64% .16 1.24 60% 50% 25% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.3 .52 16% .52 74% .39
Jan
27		 Creighton A A+ F B+ A+ 53% 9% 38% A+ A+ F+ A+ C- A+ A F C+ A+ F F A+ A- 24% 24% 53% A A- B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+
1.25 76% 0% 38% +8 +3 1.24 20% 1.3 .27 9% .30 53% .16 0.90 85% 54% 21% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 20% .07 75% .05
Jan
31		 Seton Hall B+ F F A+ C- 50% 14% 36% B+ C B- A+ A+ D F F F C C- B+ F D+ 46% 33% 21% A- C- F F F A+ A+ F+ A+
1.03 33% 17% 47% -9 +2 0.88 33% 2.2 .73 26% .19 56% .11 1.11 59% 31% 40% 0 -1 1.00 44% 1.3 .56 22% .19 78% .15
Feb
7		 Butler C- F A+ A+ A 37% 4% 59% A A+ F F F C- D F D- A+ A A+ C- A+ 47% 16% 38% C A+ D A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+
1.05 47% 50% 47% +8 +2 1.22 13% 0.5 .07 18% .18 60% .11 0.82 48% 14% 35% -8 +1 0.89 40% 0.4 .14 24% .29 60% .18
Feb
10		 Villanova B A- A+ D- B+ 42% 9% 49% A+ A- F+ A+ B+ F A+ A+ A+ A- A- A+ C- A+ 32% 9% 60% D+ A D+ C- D+ B+ F A+ F
1.06 67% 75% 29% +3 +2 1.12 21% 1.8 .38 26% .38 90% .35 1.10 53% 0% 36% -3 +1 0.98 39% 1.1 .41 17% .53 58% .31
Feb
14		 Xavier A A D F+ B- 51% 15% 34% A B B- A+ A A F B- F F A+ D- F D- 27% 24% 49% C+ D- F C D- C- F+ F F
1.22 71% 33% 29% +3 +2 1.11 30% 1.3 .38 12% .17 73% .13 1.33 47% 46% 48% +9 -1 1.18 36% 1.0 .36 11% .33 86% .28
Feb
18		 St. John's B- C- A- F+ C+ 45% 21% 34% B- C+ C- A+ B- A+ C- B C B A F B- B- 38% 17% 46% B B- C+ C+ B- A- D+ A- C+
1.02 50% 45% 28% -5 0 0.92 26% 1.2 .32 15% .27 75% .21 1.11 44% 63% 32% -3 0 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 18% .42 67% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 2.4 1.2 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 4.9 0.2 5.1 7th
8th 4.1 3.2 7.3 8th
9th 14.4 0.4 14.8 9th
10th 7.9 12.3 0.0 20.1 10th
11th 15.9 31.7 1.6 49.2 11th
Total 15.9 39.6 32.3 10.8 1.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 14.0 0.0 1.4
7-13 10.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.1 0.1 0.0 10.8
6-14 32.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 32.2
5-15 39.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 39.5
4-16 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.9
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.6 99.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 9.7%