Marquette
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.7#21
Expected Predictive Rating+18.2#10
Pace71.0#103
Improvement-4.2#330

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#28
First Shot+6.8#30
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#130
Layup/Dunks+7.2#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#59
Freethrows-0.7#226
Improvement-3.1#326

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#18
First Shot+8.6#8
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#239
Layups/Dunks+2.1#93
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#68
Freethrows+3.6#7
Improvement-1.1#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.8% 4.2% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 8.4% 16.8% 4.0%
Top 4 Seed 41.4% 61.5% 30.8%
Top 6 Seed 78.8% 91.6% 72.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.9% 99.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 99.9% 99.5%
Average Seed 5.0 4.1 5.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 25.9% 49.4% 13.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.7% 99.9% 99.6%
Second Round78.8% 85.5% 75.2%
Sweet Sixteen40.2% 48.5% 35.8%
Elite Eight17.2% 21.0% 15.1%
Final Four7.0% 8.3% 6.3%
Championship Game2.6% 3.0% 2.4%
National Champion0.9% 1.2% 0.8%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 34.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 39 - 6
Quad 27 - 216 - 8
Quad 35 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 318   Stony Brook W 102-62 99%     1 - 0 +28.3 +22.5 +6.1
  Nov 08, 2024 81   George Mason W 82-63 85%     2 - 0 +23.8 +12.2 +10.8
  Nov 11, 2024 225   Central Michigan W 70-62 97%     3 - 0 +2.0 -7.9 +9.6
  Nov 15, 2024 16   @ Maryland W 78-74 37%     4 - 0 +23.2 +17.6 +5.7
  Nov 19, 2024 9   Purdue W 76-58 51%     5 - 0 +33.5 +11.6 +22.4
  Nov 23, 2024 37   Georgia W 80-69 64%     6 - 0 +23.0 +15.3 +7.7
  Nov 27, 2024 321   Stonehill W 94-59 99%     7 - 0 +22.8 +17.7 +6.0
  Nov 30, 2024 350   Western Carolina W 94-62 99%     8 - 0 +16.7 +4.0 +8.6
  Dec 04, 2024 8   @ Iowa St. L 70-81 32%     8 - 1 +9.5 +8.6 +0.9
  Dec 07, 2024 17   Wisconsin W 88-74 57%     9 - 1 +28.1 +25.3 +3.7
  Dec 14, 2024 80   @ Dayton L 63-71 72%     9 - 2 +1.8 +1.1 -0.4
  Dec 18, 2024 75   Butler W 80-70 84%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +15.0 +16.1 +0.0
  Dec 21, 2024 44   @ Xavier W 72-70 56%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +16.1 +7.1 +9.0
  Dec 31, 2024 66   @ Providence W 78-50 69%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +38.6 +19.4 +22.6
  Jan 03, 2025 28   Creighton W 79-71 65%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +19.9 +11.2 +8.5
  Jan 07, 2025 85   Georgetown W 74-66 85%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +12.6 +4.8 +7.6
  Jan 14, 2025 112   @ DePaul W 85-83 OT 83%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +7.7 +8.3 -0.7
  Jan 18, 2025 44   Xavier L 57-59 74%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +7.1 -8.5 +15.5
  Jan 21, 2025 147   @ Seton Hall W 76-59 87%     16 - 3 7 - 1 +20.5 +9.0 +11.9
  Jan 24, 2025 46   Villanova W 87-74 76%     17 - 3 8 - 1 +21.4 +15.5 +6.0
  Jan 28, 2025 75   @ Butler W 78-69 71%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +19.0 +13.1 +6.5
  Feb 01, 2025 24   Connecticut L 69-77 63%     18 - 4 9 - 2 +4.5 +2.8 +1.1
  Feb 04, 2025 14   @ St. John's L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 28   @ Creighton L 73-74 44%    
  Feb 11, 2025 112   DePaul W 82-67 93%    
  Feb 18, 2025 147   Seton Hall W 77-60 95%    
  Feb 21, 2025 46   @ Villanova W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 25, 2025 66   Providence W 77-67 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 85   @ Georgetown W 74-68 70%    
  Mar 05, 2025 24   @ Connecticut L 73-75 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 14   St. John's W 73-72 57%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.7 12.2 8.0 1.8 25.9 1st
2nd 0.3 4.8 16.4 8.1 0.4 30.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.9 13.4 7.7 0.3 26.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.6 7.4 4.3 0.2 15.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 4.8 12.9 22.6 28.0 20.5 8.5 1.8 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-3 94.8% 8.0    6.2 1.8 0.0
16-4 59.2% 12.2    4.5 6.2 1.5 0.0
15-5 13.3% 3.7    0.3 1.4 1.7 0.4
14-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.9% 25.9 12.8 9.4 3.3 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.8% 100.0% 39.6% 60.4% 1.9 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-3 8.5% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 2.6 0.9 2.8 3.4 1.1 0.2 100.0%
16-4 20.5% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 3.6 0.2 2.7 6.8 6.5 3.6 0.8 0.1 100.0%
15-5 28.0% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 4.7 0.0 0.4 4.0 7.4 8.9 5.6 1.5 0.2 100.0%
14-6 22.6% 99.8% 16.8% 83.0% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.4 5.6 7.2 5.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 12.9% 99.5% 12.7% 86.8% 6.8 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.3 4.0 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
12-8 4.8% 98.3% 9.5% 88.9% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 98.1%
11-9 0.8% 91.6% 4.8% 86.7% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 91.1%
10-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.7% 21.7% 78.0% 5.0 1.8 6.7 15.2 17.8 20.0 17.4 12.3 6.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.3 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.5 54.2 44.4 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.9 31.7 53.7 12.2 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 2.3 16.7 41.7 38.9 2.8