Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -24.0 #365
Expected Predictive Rating -21.9 #362
Pace 69.8 #171
Improvement -2.0 #286

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #365 F F F D+ F
Defense #362 F F D+ F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #359 1.15 #182 -5.9 #343
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% #1 0.71 #230 +6.9 #5
Three Pointers 31% #349 0.85 #328 -7.7 #351
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #341 -6.8 #343
Freethrows 13.5 #334 82% #3 11.0 #274
Second Chance 23.8% #336 0.88 #338 0.21 #351
Turnovers 19.6% #334
Total Offense -15.2 #365

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #266 1.38 #362 -2.1 #252
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #345 0.73 #148 +2.6 #20
Three Pointers 51% #12 1.16 #338 -8.6 #362
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #358 -8.1 #358
Freethrows 19.7 #299 79% #353 15.4 #39
Second Chance 39.5% #361 1.15 #296 0.45 #359
Turnovers 15.3% #262
Total Defense -8.8 #362

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -6.7% #365 1.3% #284
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.1% #292 14.4% #356
Possession Length 19.3 #345 16.6 #76
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #213 0.25 #354
Improvement -3.4 #347 +1.4 #89

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 96.6% 90.2% 96.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Away) - 4.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 30 - 20 - 10
Quad 42 - 202 - 29


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 113 @UAB L 55 - 106 1%  -29  0 - 1 -44 -24 F D- F -11 D- F D-
 Fri, Nov 7 91 @Murray St. L 60 - 108 1%  -21  0 - 2 -39 -17 F F F -18 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 98 @Hawaii L 56 - 88 1%  -18  0 - 3 -24 -6 C- F B -20 F F D
 Fri, Nov 14 227 Utah Tech L 75 - 81 2OT 4%  -3  0 - 4 -10 -4 C F C+ -5 C C D-
 Sat, Nov 15 311 Manhattan L 73 - 80 9%  -5  0 - 5 -16 +0 C A+ F -17 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 294 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 70 - 86 5%  -12  0 - 6 -20 -9 C- F B -11 C F F
 Tue, Nov 25 40 @Texas A&M L 84 - 120 0%  -23  0 - 7 -20 +2 A+ F F -16 F F C
 Wed, Dec 3 356 @Louisiana Monroe L 52 - 66 11%  -10  0 - 8 -25 -23 F F C- -2 D+ C B-
 Mon, Dec 8 74 @Kansas St. L 49 - 108 0%  -35  0 - 9 -48 -23 F F F -20 F F A-
 Tue, Dec 16 172 Tarleton St. L 64 - 88 4%  -9  0 - 10 -28 -15 B C F -11 F C+ A
 Fri, Dec 19 111 @Florida St. L 49 - 96 1%  -32  0 - 11 -40 -24 F F F -13 D- D C-
 Mon, Dec 22 67 @West Virginia L 51 - 86 0%  -22  0 - 12 -23 -5 F C+ B+ -25 F F F
 Mon, Dec 29 48 @Oklahoma L 69 - 93 0%  -9  0 - 13 -10 +10 A C- C -24 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 301 Alabama St. L 69 - 89 11%  -12  0 - 14 0 - 1 -31 -14 F F F -16 F D+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 303 Alabama A&M L 51 - 71 11%  -12  0 - 15 0 - 2 -31 -27 F F F -4 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 306 @Prairie View L 67 - 85 4% 
 Mon, Jan 12 335 @Texas Southern L 64 - 80 7% 
 Sat, Jan 17 278 Bethune-Cookman L 66 - 80 9% 
 Mon, Jan 19 345 Florida A&M L 67 - 76 19% 
 Sat, Jan 24 246 @Grambling St. L 58 - 80 2% 
 Mon, Jan 26 256 @Southern L 63 - 85 2% 
 Sat, Jan 31 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 72 - 83 16% 
 Sat, Feb 7 342 Jackson St. L 68 - 77 19% 
 Mon, Feb 9 346 Alcorn St. L 69 - 78 21% 
 Sat, Feb 14 303 @Alabama A&M L 58 - 77 4% 
 Mon, Feb 16 301 @Alabama St. L 64 - 83 4% 
 Thu, Feb 19 306 @Prairie View L 67 - 85 5% 
 Sat, Feb 21 335 Texas Southern L 67 - 77 18% 
 Sat, Feb 28 327 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 69 - 86 6% 
 Tue, Mar 3 346 @Alcorn St. L 66 - 81 9% 
 Thu, Mar 5 342 @Jackson St. L 65 - 80 8% 
Totals 2 - 29 1 - 16 -24 -15 F F F -9 F F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 2.5 1.8 0.5 0.1 6.5 11th
12th 27.7 33.9 20.7 8.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 92.3 12th
Total 27.7 34.1 22.1 10.6 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14 4.0% 4.0
3-15 10.6% 10.6
2-16 22.1% 22.1
1-17 34.1% 34.1
0-18 27.7% 27.7
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 23.7%