Mississippi Valley
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -23.6 #365
Expected Predictive Rating -26.4 #365
Pace 68.0 #205
Improvement +0.1 #181

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #365 F+ D- F D+ F
Defense #358 F+ F C F+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #356 1.04 #310 -7.1 #355
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% #1 0.74 #193 +7.0 #2
Three Pointers 31% #350 0.83 #359 -8.0 #360
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #360 -8.1 #360
Freethrows 0.26 #299 72% #183 0.19 #281
Second Chance 24.0% #343 0.88 #339 0.21 #351
Turnovers 21.3% #360
Total Offense -15.6 #365

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #299 1.34 #352 -0.8 #205
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #301 0.77 #221 +1.4 #77
Three Pointers 49% #13 1.17 #350 -7.9 #362
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #359 -7.3 #359
Freethrows 0.38 #350 75% #318 0.29 #354
Second Chance 37.1% #356 1.18 #342 0.44 #362
Turnovers 16.7% #175
Total Defense -8.0 #358

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -6.2% #365 0.5% #208
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.4% #336 13.8% #361
Possession Length 18.6 #311 16.3 #34
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #224 0.24 #347
Improvement -2.0 #307 +2.1 #66

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 99.9% 99.8% 100.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 19.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 30 - 10 - 9
Quad 41 - 211 - 30


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 120 @UAB L 55 - 106 1% -29  0 - 1 -45 -25 F D- F -12 D+ F D+
 Fri, Nov 7 106 @Murray St. L 60 - 108 1% -21  0 - 2 -41 -18 F F F -18 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 102 @Hawaii L 56 - 88 1% -18  0 - 3 -24 -7 D F+ B+ -19 F F D
 Fri, Nov 14 210 Utah Tech L 75 - 81 2OT 4% -3  0 - 4 -9 -3 C F C -5 C- C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 327 Manhattan L 73 - 80 11% -5  0 - 5 -17 -1 D+ A+ F -17 F F B+
 Sat, Nov 22 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 70 - 86 7% -10  0 - 6 -23 -10 D F B- -11 C+ F F
 Tue, Nov 25 27 @Texas A&M L 84 - 120 0% -20  0 - 7 -17 +4 A+ C F -14 D F C
 Wed, Dec 3 360 @Louisiana Monroe L 52 - 66 14% -4  0 - 8 -26 -23 F F C+ -4 D C- C+
 Mon, Dec 8 92 @Kansas St. L 49 - 108 1% -32  0 - 9 -50 -23 F F F -22 F F B
 Tue, Dec 16 226 Tarleton St. L 64 - 88 7% -9  0 - 10 -31 -15 C D F -14 F C- B
 Fri, Dec 19 101 @Florida St. L 49 - 96 1% -29  0 - 11 -39 -23 F F F -13 D+ D- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 57 @West Virginia L 51 - 86 0% -20  0 - 12 -23 -3 F B- B -26 F F F
 Mon, Dec 29 55 @Oklahoma L 69 - 93 0% -9  0 - 13 -11 +10 B+ C C -25 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 322 Alabama St. L 69 - 89 16% -9  0 - 14 0 - 1 -33 -13 D- F F -19 F D+ B+
 Mon, Jan 5 293 Alabama A&M L 51 - 71 12% -10  0 - 15 0 - 2 -31 -27 F F+ F -4 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 339 @Prairie View L 69 - 70 9% +2  0 - 16 0 - 3 -9 -8 D- D+ F -2 D A- C
 Mon, Jan 12 309 @Texas Southern L 51 - 84 6% -18  0 - 17 0 - 4 -39 -24 F C F -16 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 236 Bethune-Cookman L 63 - 79 7% -7  0 - 18 0 - 5 -23 -9 F A- A+ -15 F F A-
 Mon, Jan 19 317 Florida A&M L 48 - 62 15% -13  0 - 19 0 - 6 -27 -25 F F C+ -3 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 266 @Southern L 69 - 80 4% -5  0 - 20 0 - 7 -14 -3 D D C- -11 C- F C
 Sat, Jan 31 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 70 - 78 17% -7  0 - 21 0 - 8 -22 -11 D+ F+ F -10 C- D+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 337 Jackson St. L 68 - 77 19%
 Mon, Feb 9 348 Alcorn St. L 66 - 75 21%
 Sat, Feb 14 293 @Alabama A&M L 58 - 77 3%
 Mon, Feb 16 322 @Alabama St. L 63 - 80 6%
 Thu, Feb 19 339 @Prairie View L 66 - 81 8%
 Sat, Feb 21 309 Texas Southern L 67 - 79 14%
 Mon, Feb 23 287 @Grambling St. L 58 - 77 4%
 Sat, Feb 28 331 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66 - 82 7%
 Tue, Mar 3 348 @Alcorn St. L 63 - 78 8%
 Thu, Mar 5 337 @Jackson St. L 65 - 80 8%
Totals 1 - 30 1 - 16 -24 -16 F+ D- F -8 F+ F C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 43.2 36.0 15.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 99.8 12th
Total 43.2 36.0 15.9 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 3.9% 3.9
2-16 15.9% 15.9
1-17 36.0% 36.0
0-18 43.2% 43.2
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 38.0%